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Peak Oil Simulator

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Peak Oil Simulator

Unread postby Polybius » Sun 18 Jul 2021, 00:52:06

Has anyone ever tried to make a Peak Oil Simulator? Whether turn-based in the form of a numbers-only Excel macro spreadsheet etc or something representing a microcosm of the physical world with 3D globe, modern graphics and the works...

Think Dyson Sphere Program but where except instead of reaching the stars and conquering the galaxy by ascending the tech tree and hitting Quantum AI Singularity Omega Point the simulation takes a much more sobering turn in terms of sliding down the Olduvia Gorge of diminishing EROEI and ultimately suffering the fate of Easter Island

This game has most if not all of the mechanics needed for a small scale peak energy simulator but obviously it would need to be modified to take into account many variables that is glossed over or entirely not taken into account...

https://store.steampowered.com/app/1366 ... e_Program/

I think Peak Oil, EROEI etc are concepts hard for the human mind to truly understand without showing it visually and if there was a Peak Oil Simulator it would go a long way to impress upon the minds of many the true nature of the extent of the gravity of the problem.

=====

*As far as I know, there are no PC games/ strategy/ resource simulators be it SimCity to Age of Empires, to any type of game even Astroneer or Dyson Sphere that simulate or take into account EROEI.... they just assume the first barrel of oil extracted yields as much energy as the last drop etc....same for coal or any other resource... and most if not all of these games/sims don't simulate that as resource gets more scarce it takes more time and energy to do discovery/exploration of them because it just shows you right from the start where the resource deposits are etc

*All resources in these games if priced are set to a 'set cost'... they don't have a simulated monetary system that expands... meaning they don't simulate the fact that in the real world the Fed is printing money to infinity to temporarily keep the illusion alive that renewables are working (because they are being subsidized on the printing machine goes brrrrrr end of things) to say nothing of the fact that they don't factor in net energy payback period of things like solar/wind/hydro etc; basically these games, like some dumb folks in real life, assume that energy can be other resource or monetary substituted...
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Re: Peak Oil Simulator

Unread postby mustang19 » Sun 18 Jul 2021, 01:12:36

I just use excel.
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Re: Peak Oil Simulator

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 18 Jul 2021, 06:41:45

Polybius wrote:Has anyone ever tried to make a Peak Oil Simulator?


Yes.

polybius wrote:Whether turn-based in the form of a numbers-only Excel macro spreadsheet etc or something representing a microcosm of the physical world with 3D globe, modern graphics and the works...


Graphics are not required to build a peak oil simulation, but you certainly can from the various outputs.

Polybius wrote:I think Peak Oil, EROEI etc are concepts hard for the human mind to truly understand without showing it visually and if there was a Peak Oil Simulator it would go a long way to impress upon the minds of many the true nature of the extent of the gravity of the problem.


I didn't build a game. I built a simulator. And the human mind understands this stuff just fine. Maybe not the mind of simpletons or trolls, but the outputs under various scenarios make it perfectly obvious what happens in the end.
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Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.
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Re: Peak Oil Simulator

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 18 Jul 2021, 06:44:08

mustang19 wrote:I just use excel.


Indeed, that is what all competent computer programmers use. :lol: Who needs those pesky other languages anyway. Just invented so real computer programmers can show off.
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.
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Re: Peak Oil Simulator

Unread postby Polybius » Sun 18 Jul 2021, 15:47:59

trees -> deforestation
whales -> hunt to extinction
coal -> global c02 levels, climate disasters, melting icecaps, rising sea levels etc
oil -> Peak oil , lower EROEI over time
natural gas
wind -> rare earth limiation, too low eroei
solar -> rare earth limiation, too low eroei
geothermal -> not enough
nuclear fission -> scaling problem....peak uranium
nuclear fusion -> pipe dream, R&D blackhole


So I imagine the game starts where the gamer has a low population, plenty of trees, and whales and undiscovered coal/oil/NG/uranium etc
It starts at the beginning of the age of steam engines, still burning wood to power society for the most part... and whale oil for candles and such...
Eventually trees start running out and so do the whales go extinct, so mankind in this simulation has to go discover coal/oil/ and bring them to market
and upgrade the infrastructure from one of steam age to the oil age and as hydrocarbon gets unlocked and all this energy and power comes online, all of
a sudden its possible to grow more food, produce more stuff, and the population sky rockets quickly to 10x or more the initial amount....

More people means more workers, more workers means more ability to extract and consume even more energy which leads to even more wealth and even more population....

Eventually this cannot continue forever, the high EROEI fossil fuel stuff are gone leaving just the harder to extract, more energy intensive to process etc stuff at the bottom
all the while the population level at the highest that its ever been

Top soil continues to erode and at this point the population is feed only because society is converting oil to fertilizers to grow food
and attempt is made to switch to ethanoel but as it turns out its using up way more oil to convert to fertilizer to grow corn and then reconvert back to
fuel in the form of ethaneol than had one just stuck with using oil in the first place, so the gamer abandons that

Next is wind, solar, and other renewables.... but these are incredibly intermittent, low energy density, take a long time and a lot of energy and money
to ramp up the infrastructure and to maintain. In fact the gamer soon finds out to his dismay that the more he tries to convert to renewables the less net usable energy the society has left....
Like ethanoel its a net lose lose....

His research of fusion gets stuck and goes nowhere....

Then he deployes a CIA biovirus as a last ditch
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Re: Peak Oil Simulator

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 18 Jul 2021, 17:47:29

Polybius wrote:trees -> deforestation
whales -> hunt to extinction
coal -> global c02 levels, climate disasters, melting icecaps, rising sea levels etc
oil -> Peak oil , lower EROEI over time
natural gas
wind -> rare earth limiation, too low eroei
solar -> rare earth limiation, too low eroei
geothermal -> not enough
nuclear fission -> scaling problem....peak uranium
nuclear fusion -> pipe dream, R&D blackhole


So I imagine the game starts where the gamer has a low population, plenty of trees, and whales and undiscovered coal/oil/NG/uranium etc
It starts at the beginning of the age of steam engines, still burning wood to power society for the most part... and whale oil for candles and such...
Eventually trees start running out and so do the whales go extinct, so mankind in this simulation has to go discover coal/oil/ and bring them to market
and upgrade the infrastructure from one of steam age to the oil age and as hydrocarbon gets unlocked and all this energy and power comes online, all of
a sudden its possible to grow more food, produce more stuff, and the population sky rockets quickly to 10x or more the initial amount....

More people means more workers, more workers means more ability to extract and consume even more energy which leads to even more wealth and even more population....

Eventually this cannot continue forever, the high EROEI fossil fuel stuff are gone leaving just the harder to extract, more energy intensive to process etc stuff at the bottom
all the while the population level at the highest that its ever been

Top soil continues to erode and at this point the population is feed only because society is converting oil to fertilizers to grow food
and attempt is made to switch to ethanoel but as it turns out its using up way more oil to convert to fertilizer to grow corn and then reconvert back to
fuel in the form of ethaneol than had one just stuck with using oil in the first place, so the gamer abandons that

Next is wind, solar, and other renewables.... but these are incredibly intermittent, low energy density, take a long time and a lot of energy and money
to ramp up the infrastructure and to maintain. In fact the gamer soon finds out to his dismay that the more he tries to convert to renewables the less net usable energy the society has left....
Like ethanoel its a net lose lose....

His research of fusion gets stuck and goes nowhere....

Then he deployes a CIA biovirus as a last ditch

And your ilk will keep forecasting insta-doom and ignoring math and science (re real world trends and data, vs. endless doomer fantasies). And people who use their brains won't believe your ilk, and you'll continue to be dead wrong, and deny it.

Gee. What a difficult forecast, based on reality and history. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Peak Oil Simulator

Unread postby mustang19 » Sun 18 Jul 2021, 17:49:53

Im pretty sure this thread is satire of some video game.
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Re: Peak Oil Simulator

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 18 Jul 2021, 17:55:02

mustang19 wrote:Im pretty sure this thread is satire of some video game.

Sure. Claim your entire posting history here is the fault of video games. That will make you super-credible. :razz:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Peak Oil Simulator

Unread postby Polybius » Sun 18 Jul 2021, 18:02:28

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Polybius wrote:trees -> deforestation
whales -> hunt to extinction
coal -> global c02 levels, climate disasters, melting icecaps, rising sea levels etc
oil -> Peak oil , lower EROEI over time
natural gas
wind -> rare earth limiation, too low eroei
solar -> rare earth limiation, too low eroei
geothermal -> not enough
nuclear fission -> scaling problem....peak uranium
nuclear fusion -> pipe dream, R&D blackhole


So I imagine the game starts where the gamer has a low population, plenty of trees, and whales and undiscovered coal/oil/NG/uranium etc
It starts at the beginning of the age of steam engines, still burning wood to power society for the most part... and whale oil for candles and such...
Eventually trees start running out and so do the whales go extinct, so mankind in this simulation has to go discover coal/oil/ and bring them to market
and upgrade the infrastructure from one of steam age to the oil age and as hydrocarbon gets unlocked and all this energy and power comes online, all of
a sudden its possible to grow more food, produce more stuff, and the population sky rockets quickly to 10x or more the initial amount....

More people means more workers, more workers means more ability to extract and consume even more energy which leads to even more wealth and even more population....

Eventually this cannot continue forever, the high EROEI fossil fuel stuff are gone leaving just the harder to extract, more energy intensive to process etc stuff at the bottom
all the while the population level at the highest that its ever been

Top soil continues to erode and at this point the population is feed only because society is converting oil to fertilizers to grow food
and attempt is made to switch to ethanoel but as it turns out its using up way more oil to convert to fertilizer to grow corn and then reconvert back to
fuel in the form of ethaneol than had one just stuck with using oil in the first place, so the gamer abandons that

Next is wind, solar, and other renewables.... but these are incredibly intermittent, low energy density, take a long time and a lot of energy and money
to ramp up the infrastructure and to maintain. In fact the gamer soon finds out to his dismay that the more he tries to convert to renewables the less net usable energy the society has left....
Like ethanoel its a net lose lose....

His research of fusion gets stuck and goes nowhere....

Then he deployes a CIA biovirus as a last ditch

And your ilk will keep forecasting insta-doom and ignoring math and science (re real world trends and data, vs. endless doomer fantasies). And people who use their brains won't believe your ilk, and you'll continue to be dead wrong, and deny it.

Gee. What a difficult forecast, based on reality and history. :roll:


Lay off the MKUltra

https://youtu.be/YUSpsT6Oqrg
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