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Heat Waves 2021

Re: Heat Waves 2021

Unread postby dissident » Sun 11 Jul 2021, 11:07:58

This is the sort of variability that deniers do not understand. The variability of the accumulated thermal energy in the atmosphere-ocean-land system concentrating in different regions thanks to the transport circualtion. Not the retarded "variability" of the radiative transfer properties of CO2 and other greenhouse gases.

These roving heat waves will get worse and will be doing in humans and their economy and housing well before the tropics become uninhabitable. The worrying should not be about 2100 but about 2040. Agriculture will experience enough damage to lead to food shortages. The current global food supply is already marginal (there is no multi year reserve), it will be in deficit likely before 2040.

The estimates of permafrost melt should be tossed out the window as well.
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Re: Heat Waves 2021

Unread postby Heineken » Tue 13 Jul 2021, 05:18:40

I entirely agree. Many years ago I said on this site that global warming, not peak oil, would be the biggest disaster of this century. Given that oil is still plentiful and that global warming is accelerating, I think I was right.
Scientists know what is happening and what is going to happen, but the political and business establishments, and big swaths of the public, can't fully (or at all) face the truth and continue their evasion, deception, and distraction. The clock has kept ticking and now it's too late to avert the worst consequences, which keep looking worse all the time.
I believe that global warming will destroy our civilization sometime in this century, and that the exponential surge in human population will finally end and reverse. The first canon shots are being fired.
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Re: Heat Waves 2021

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 13 Jul 2021, 06:33:41

Heineken;
I fear you are mostly correct.
Casandra’s curse.
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Re: Heat Waves 2021

Unread postby Heineken » Wed 14 Jul 2021, 04:33:58

Right except that "cannon" has two n's.

Yes, people are starting to die from it NOW. Not at some vague future date that is safely beyond currently living people's lives.

As an animal lover, dairy goat farmer, hairy guard-dog (Great Pyrenees) keeper, and tree hugger, the whole goddamned thing has me in constant pain (as does the blistering, withering heat n humidity here in central Virginia). We've destroyed our beautiful world for a short-term gain for a few businessmen and politicians. What madness, what sadness. And they're still lying about it and people are still gullible enough to gather 'round them.
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Re: Heat Waves 2021

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 14 Jul 2021, 08:49:33

FWIW (not much) I see it as a part of human biology. We THINK we are smarter than we are. We can imagine a better world, some of us can see what we are doing, but on average we are not capable of the planning required to avoid this disaster.

It kind if makes sense. We would not expect a chimp to look far into the future. We are not very far removed from chimps. We have a few tricks they do not. Thats about it.

But it is painful for those of us who can see it coming.
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Re: Heat Waves 2021

Unread postby Heineken » Sun 25 Jul 2021, 07:47:42

Global warming is perfectly designed to kill us off. For example, where I live, each year we're rescued from a dreadful summer by a pleasant fall and mild winter. You get relief that way, and you get brief periodic relief from the heat waves in summer. And you get relief via air conditioning. And every now and then you still get a summer that isn't too bad. So the whole problem you can sweep under your psychic rug, even though the pain and damage while it is occurring gets progressively worse. My own approach is to just try to get through to September, October. Then I figure we're good for another 7 or 8 months or so, a long pleasant, livable period. Once i hit October the dumb part of me says, What, me worry? In microcosm this is our collective strategy too. Tough out what we must, revel in the relief, ignore the doomers. It's one reason why we're not really doing anything about the problem, why we're not willing to truly sacrifice and pay up and CHANGE the whole way we're organized and operating. All we have to do is put on our respirator and wait until October. Part of me knows that at some point the cycle is not survivable, e.g., a particular summer is so bad that the electricity fails and supply chains get wrecked and there are food riots, etc., and the crazies start to Walk. I used to reason that we'd be dead from natural causes by then (I'm 66, the wife is 53). Now I'm not so sure.

The whole damned thing is actually happening. Anyone who wants to can feel the shudder. The Titanic has struck the iceberg. It's dawning on the more rational passengers that the ship will actually sink. Soon they will learn that there aren't enough lifeboats, not nearly.
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Re: Heat Waves 2021

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 25 Jul 2021, 08:17:38

Heineken,

I suspect that a fair amount of the worldwide population has some inkling that something is wrong. Then Covid came around, and it gave folks something to attach their anxiety to. They were/are afraid and Covid is something tangible to fear, and we trust that our medical system will find a cure and then everything will be OK and return to normal. Covid is a “safe” worry.

It is kind of like buying new cloths to improve your looks when you weigh 375 pounds, you feel better for a few days but …..
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Re: Heat Waves 2021

Unread postby FamousDrScanlon » Sun 25 Jul 2021, 19:57:16

"Phenomenal Heat" And Other Climate Mysteries Are Puzzling Scientists

Heatwaves -- and particularly the tendency of current models to underestimate the intensity of these bursts of deadly, searing temperature.


'Phenomenal' heat

Scientists now have a greater understanding of the mechanisms behind "extreme phenomena, which now occur almost every week around the world", said Vautard, adding that this helps better quantify how these events will play out in the future.

In almost real time, researchers can pinpoint the role of climate change in a given disaster, something they were unable to do at all until very recently.

Now, so-called "attribution" science means we can say how probable an extreme weather event would have been had the climate not been changing at all.'Phenomenal' heat

For example, within days of the extraordinary "heat dome" that scorched the western United States and Canada at the end of June, scientists from the World Weather Attribution calculated that the heatwave would have been "almost impossible" without warming.

Despite these advances, Vautard said "major mysteries remain".

Scientists are still unsure what part clouds play "in the energy balance of the planet" and their influence on the climate's sensitivity to greenhouse gases, he said.


https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/climate ... rt-2492827

Re: "Scientists are still unsure what part clouds play "in the energy balance of the planet" and their influence on the climate's sensitivity to greenhouse gases,.."

Global satellite data shows clouds will amplify global heating
(July 19, 2021)


A new approach to analyse satellite measurements of Earth's cloud cover reveals that clouds are very likely to enhance global heating.

The research, by scientists at Imperial College London and the University of East Anglia, is the strongest evidence yet that clouds will amplify global heating over the long term, further exacerbating climate change.

The results, published today in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, also suggest that at double atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations above pre-industrial levels, the climate is unlikely to warm below 2°C, and is more likely on average to warm more than 3°C.


The largest uncertainty in climate sensitivity predictions is the influence of clouds, and how they may change in the future.


They found it was very likely (more than 97.5% probability) that clouds will amplify global heating,


https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 153522.htm

Hopefully, recovered denier Planty can finally get some sleep now that the level of uncertainty in climate sensitivity has been dialed down. I pray to my gods that "more than 97.5% probability" is enough for Planty & the leaders of the civilized world.
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