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Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby diemos » Tue 22 Jun 2021, 13:29:12

Plantagenet wrote:The people who have the power to do something about climate change are the leaders of our governments. They're the ones who have both the responsibility ad the power to take action and do something.


Lordy. Did you see the level of hysterics at being asked to wear a mask. Do you think any politician could survive the shitstorm that would come from being asked to make actual sacrifices and lifestyle changes? Of course no leader actually does anything. We will simply go on with business as usual until reality grabs us by the hair and drags us kicking and screaming into the future.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby dissident » Tue 22 Jun 2021, 20:24:57

Basically a guaranteed fail. When the pain becomes palpable to the masses, it is game over.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 22 Jun 2021, 20:31:57

diemos wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:The people who have the power to do something about climate change are the leaders of our governments. They're the ones who have both the responsibility ad the power to take action and do something.


Lordy. Did you see the level of hysterics at being asked to wear a mask.


There was an editorial about this in WSJ just today........And once again it was largely our so-called leaders who to blame for the hysterics. Who will ever forget Dr. Fauci in early 2020 lying to Americans and telling them they didn't have to worry about Covid and wearing a mask was unnecessary , while at the same time he was emailing his professional collegues and taking a more rational tone. Then Fauci flip-flopped and told people Covid was dangerous and they should wear masks but by then the damage was done. And then, a few months later Fauci was telling people to wear TWO masks.

Which was it....0, 1 or 2 masks? What did the science say? We sure never got a straight answer from Dr. Fauci.

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Blame nincompoops like Dr. Fauci for the confusion about masks. It really would've helped if he had acted like scientist instead of a manipulative politician and just told people the truth from the very beginning instead of flip flopping and changing his recommendations over and over again.

diemos wrote:Do you think any politician could survive the shitstorm that would come from being asked to make actual sacrifices and lifestyle changes? Of course no leader actually does anything. We will simply go on with business as usual until reality grabs us by the hair and drags us kicking and screaming into the future.


There have been plenty of politicians that have "survived" far worse then telling people the truth about climate change. Of course those are great men, like Churchill who had to tell the British people to make enormous sacrifices to fight the Nazis.

The problem today is that we don't have great men like Churchill running things.....we've got fools and worse like Al Gore and Obama and Biden just lying to people and pretending they are fixing the climate change problem when they aren't, and utter fools like Trump who won't even acknowledge its a problem.

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We need a great leader like Churchill to tell the truth about climate change and the need for sacrifice ....instead we've got liars and fools like Al Gore, Obama, Trump, John Kerry and Joe Biden covering up the truth and pretending we can continue BAU indefinitely .

Cheers!
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Never underestimate the ability of Joe Biden to f#@% things up---Barack Obama

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby Azothius » Mon 05 Jul 2021, 11:04:19

As always, projecting what the arctic sea ice minimum might look like poses a complex puzzle.
There's a nice, lively debate over at
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3447.1700.html#lastPost
with one poster predicting that we're going to have a recovery year for the ice and others critiquing his observations and assertions.

One of the sticking points seems to be that as the condition of the ice continues to deteriorate, the models for estimating the thickness and volume of the ice are increasingly inaccurate.

Right now it seems we have the lowest Extent on record for this date. But the Area is middle of the road relative to recent years. And the Compaction is exceptionally high as compared to recent years.

see the charts here: https://cryospherecomputing.tk/NRT2.html
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby dissident » Wed 07 Jul 2021, 09:31:41

It is time to drop these area coverage diagnostics. They are a distraction. The measure I would like to see is the sea ice mobility. That is, how fast is the sea ice circulating in a given image pixel. I can guarantee that this is increasing over time as the average depth of the ice decreases. The only thing useful in the current list observations is the semi-empirical metric volume. But it is based on assimilation into a model which will be affected by how well the model represents the circulation. Ocean models have traditionally done a worse job than atmospheric models since the size scale of dynamical features (e.g. Rossby waves and the all-important gyres) is very small (tens or hundreds of meters). This means enormous computing resources are required.

I have read a peer-reviewed article that the current crop of ocean models all fail to be in the "resolution converged" regime. That is changing the grid resolution leads to substantial differences in the simulations. Not just expected chaos noise, but intensity of key currents, etc.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby JuanP » Tue 13 Jul 2021, 10:54:09

Latest NSIDC report:
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

"At the end of the first week of July, Arctic sea ice extent was tracking at record low for this time of year. July is the month with most rapid sea ice decline. As in most of the years in the past decade, June saw rapid ice loss in Hudson Bay, Baffin Bay, the Siberian coast, and the Chukchi Sea. However, ice remains extensive north of Alaska."

Maybe we will have a new all time record low Arctic sea ice extent, or maybe not, but I don't expect anything extreme unless the Arctic Ocean weather goes berserk before the melting season is over. It's all up to the weather now.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 13 Jul 2021, 14:55:21

JuanP wrote:Latest NSIDC report:
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

"At the end of the first week of July, Arctic sea ice extent was tracking at record low for this time of year. July is the month with most rapid sea ice decline. As in most of the years in the past decade, June saw rapid ice loss in Hudson Bay, Baffin Bay, the Siberian coast, and the Chukchi Sea. However, ice remains extensive north of Alaska."

Maybe we will have a new all time record low Arctic sea ice extent, or maybe not, but I don't expect anything extreme unless the Arctic Ocean weather goes berserk before the melting season is over. It's all up to the weather now.


While that might be technically true the same date in 2011 and again in 2020 was only a hairs breadth higher than 2021.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 24 Jul 2021, 16:34:27

Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 31 Jul 2021, 08:49:55

Plantagenet wrote:
evilgenius wrote:. I ask myself about the PR value of a totally melted out Arctic. There's no doubt it is high. Even your average right-wing Southern Baptist might agree about the reality of climate change once that happens. I hope by then it isn't too late.


Your "average right-wing Southern Baptist" is totally irrelevant to doing anything about the climate change.

The people who have the power to do something about climate change are the leaders of our governments. They're the ones who have both the responsibility ad the power to take action and do something.

But unfortunately from Clinton and AL Gore to Obama to Biden, they say nice things but they do essentially nothing. Trump didn't say nice things and he also did nothing.

Take Obama.....even if you ignore the key role he played in derailing the rather good UN Climate Change Treaty scheduled for signature in Copenhagen in 2009, Obama deserves full blame for the disastrous fraud of a climate treaty that he and other world leaders foisted on the world in Paris in 2015. A treaty where everybody wishes that global warming not exceed 2°C is utterly meaningless and worthless....even worse it provides cover for doing nothing while CO2 emissions and global temperatures go up and up.

Its already too late to do anything about climate change----not because of some ignorant nobody in the south, but because people like Clinton and Gore and Obama and Trump and Biden have failed the people of the world and failed to do their job to protect us and the planet.

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Clinton and Gore and Obama and Trump and Biden all say they're taking care of climate change....but all they are doing is putting out a lot of hot air

Cheers!

I somewhat disagree with you. I don't think any politician can do anything without the people behind them. When you see politicians step out and make those kinds of commitments, they are hoping for that support. If they get it overwhelmingly, then their names will go down in history. If not, then they get criticized. And the criticism is partially valid because they are supposed to be effective enough leaders that if they believe in something they will be able to get the people behind them. But that depends upon convincing your average Southern Baptist. Remember, flames seek to expand everywhere, but the squeaky wheel gets the grease.
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