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Russian Peak

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Russian decline

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 11 Jul 2021, 23:51:06

mustang19 wrote:How can you understand fluid mechanics and not get that Permian, with 1 mile laterals, will overlap at a 1 mile distance it's already at and not grow anymore?


Fluid mechanics? Can you add, subtract and multiply? Multiply out the number of horizontal wellbores in each of the 4 benches of the Wolfcamp, against their bench specific drainage area, to get the total current non-interfering produced area. Feel free to deduct a little for pads that you believe are current sub-optimal spacing. Subtract that number from the sum of all area available in each of those 4 benches, and you'll have the total area with remaining non-interfering potential development in each bench.

Prove you can add, subtract and multiply and we'll talk farther. I mean really, where do you expect anyone should start with an admitted engineer that can't engineer?

And you should drop your trolling comments on the Wolfcamp into the thread that has devolved down to your level of ignorance, in this one we are apparently talking about what you don't know about Russia in general, or reservoir dynamics of Russian fields in particular.
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.
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Re: Russian decline

Unread postby mustang19 » Mon 12 Jul 2021, 00:14:23

AdamB wrote:
mustang19 wrote:How can you understand fluid mechanics and not get that Permian, with 1 mile laterals, will overlap at a 1 mile distance it's already at and not grow anymore?


Fluid mechanics? Can you add, subtract and multiply? Multiply out the number of horizontal wellbores in each of the 4 benches of the Wolfcamp, against their bench specific drainage area, to get the total current non-interfering produced area. Feel free to deduct a little for pads that you believe are current sub-optimal spacing. Subtract that number from the sum of all area available in each of those 4 benches, and you'll have the total area with remaining non-interfering potential development in each bench.

Prove you can add, subtract and multiply and we'll talk farther. I mean really, where do you expect anyone should start with an admitted engineer that can't engineer?

And you should drop your trolling comments on the Wolfcamp into the thread that has devolved down to your level of ignorance, in this one we are apparently talking about what you don't know about Russia in general, or reservoir dynamics of Russian fields in particular.


I don't have that kind of data. There are not four meaningful wolfcamp benches. Wolfcamp D is useless, all the production takes place in A, B and C with A and B being the majority.

So we really have A and B and depending on the area only one of those is actually drilled. The benches are only 100m thick and a well produces 500,000 tons of oil at 10% recovery and porosity so that's the entire layer to a thickness of meter. Including bitumen and 10% TOC basically the entire 100m is consumed by any well.

So it's not nearly as complex as you make it, typically all the wells in a section will be on the same bench consuming the entire area. The Permian is 65,000 square miles with more wells than that so it is very crowded. I'm sure there's still room for growth but it's obviously not the huge 70gb numbers given by Dennis.

Is any of this disputed?
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Re: Russian decline

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 12 Jul 2021, 00:27:36

mustang19 wrote:I don't have that kind of data. There are not four meaningful wolfcamp benches. Wolfcamp D is useless, all the production takes place in A, B and C with A and B being the majority.


I know what is, or is not, the majority. And what others (folks who know stuff) have quantified when it comes to "useless". Remember when folks pretended that light tight oil and shale gas were useless? And suckers like you thought Colin Campbell was selling you the real deal?

mustang19 wrote:Is any of this disputed?


Yes. And I told you, if you want to pollute a thread with you demonstrating why you don't have the ability to engineer (let alone add, subtract and multiply), it exists elsewhere. This thread is all about you demonstrating that you don't know anything about Russian oil fields, not US light tight oil plays.
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.
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Re: Russian decline

Unread postby mustang19 » Mon 12 Jul 2021, 00:33:06

AdamB wrote:
mustang19 wrote:I don't have that kind of data. There are not four meaningful wolfcamp benches. Wolfcamp D is useless, all the production takes place in A, B and C with A and B being the majority.


I know what is, or is not, the majority. And what others (folks who know stuff) have quantified when it comes to "useless". Remember when folks pretended that light tight oil and shale gas were useless? And suckers like you thought Colin Campbell was selling you the real deal?

mustang19 wrote:Is any of this disputed?


Yes. And I told you, if you want to pollute a thread with you demonstrating why you don't have the ability to engineer (let alone add, subtract and multiply), it exists elsewhere. This thread is all about you demonstrating that you don't know anything about Russian oil fields, not US light tight oil plays.


Adam, if you don't explain why I'm wrong this doesn't go anywhere.

So what if Wolfcamp D isn't useless? Would that just mean 4x more reserves? It can't possibly be productive across its entire area, even if there are four benches the success rate of wildcat wells is probably 25% also.
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Re: Russian decline

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 12 Jul 2021, 09:03:41

mustang19 wrote:Adam, if you don't explain why I'm wrong this doesn't go anywhere.


Absolutely right. And if you refuse to respond to the comments made and make up nonsense to respond to, there is no requirement I tackle non-sensical claims. Such as the infallible Hubbert curve.

mustang19 wrote:So what if Wolfcamp D isn't useless?


Then there is a bunch more oil (or in the case of the Wolfcamp D, possibly natural gas) available.

mustang19 wrote:Would that just mean 4x more reserves?


No, it would not. As a 4th bench, it would mean 1/4 of the total of the 4 benches. Learn math and you'll get better answers. And because it probably isn't as productive as others, it would be less than that. And it might not even be reserves. Yet.

mustang19 wrote:It can't possibly be productive across its entire area, even if there are four benches the success rate of wildcat wells is probably 25% also.


It might possibly be productive across an entire area, but it is unlikely. Good thing we've got geologic experts who can figure that out for us. And you don't have a clue as to the success rate, because you don't know what success is, and can't calculate it using your infantile methods of simply stating something is true when it is not. Mr. "The Hubbert curve is infallible."

And "going somewhere" with a troll is an oxymoron. And you are still in the wrong thread. This thread is for you trolling with Russian field information that you know nothing about.
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.
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Re: Russian decline

Unread postby mustang19 » Mon 12 Jul 2021, 13:16:54

AdamB wrote:
mustang19 wrote:Adam, if you don't explain why I'm wrong this doesn't go anywhere.


Absolutely right. And if you refuse to respond to the comments made and make up nonsense to respond to, there is no requirement I tackle non-sensical claims. Such as the infallible Hubbert curve.

mustang19 wrote:So what if Wolfcamp D isn't useless?


Then there is a bunch more oil (or in the case of the Wolfcamp D, possibly natural gas) available.

mustang19 wrote:Would that just mean 4x more reserves?


No, it would not. As a 4th bench, it would mean 1/4 of the total of the 4 benches. Learn math and you'll get better answers. And because it probably isn't as productive as others, it would be less than that. And it might not even be reserves. Yet.

mustang19 wrote:It can't possibly be productive across its entire area, even if there are four benches the success rate of wildcat wells is probably 25% also.


It might possibly be productive across an entire area, but it is unlikely. Good thing we've got geologic experts who can figure that out for us. And you don't have a clue as to the success rate, because you don't know what success is, and can't calculate it using your infantile methods of simply stating something is true when it is not. Mr. "The Hubbert curve is infallible."

And "going somewhere" with a troll is an oxymoron. And you are still in the wrong thread. This thread is for you trolling with Russian field information that you know nothing about.


Ok so no dispute every american will die in peak oil in 3 years? Cool

For Russia I think I've thoroughly obliterated the Vostok project.
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Re: Russian decline

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 12 Jul 2021, 15:08:20

mustang19 wrote:Ok so no dispute every american will die in peak oil in 3 years? Cool


You see, this is why you just don't talk to idiot trolls. I don't mind those whom are clever, but you are as ignorant as your eroei paper indicated.
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.
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