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THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 05 Jun 2021, 15:54:23

Now Now children it is not nice to throw sand at the eyes of the other children in the sandbox.
Fords introduction of the electric Mustang and now the coming F150 Lightning (Great name choice by the way), is perhaps a game changer. They may easily grab the Lion's share of the EV market in just a couple of years and Tesla has it's work cut out for them if they want to stay viable let alone the market leader.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 05 Jun 2021, 19:07:09

4000 miles on my Leaf, no fires, breakdowns, finally noticed a noticeable bump in the electric bill, the heat and A/C work great. Plant, with apparently zero experience with electrics, seems to like pimping how terrible they are as a form of poor trolling.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 05 Jun 2021, 19:52:30

I expect that ,other then range per charge, the major competition will soon become which manufacturer can solve the problem of battery fires both during charging and after major crashes. Any lithium battery will burn if crushed so they all face the same physics and chemistry problem and it will be interesting to see how they approach the problem. One strategy might be to improve AI driving abilities of the vehicles so that becomes impossible to crash them even on purpose. That won't help a parked EV that some other vehicle crashes into.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 05 Jun 2021, 21:01:57

vtsnowedin wrote:I expect that ,other then range per charge, the major competition will soon become which manufacturer can solve the problem of battery fires both during charging and after major crashes.


As long as no one holds them to any higher standard than the same problems in ICE powered machines, I've got no objection to making anything safer. I remember drum brakes on the front wheel of motorcycles. Last weekend my daughter bought her first motorcycle, and smaller displacement beginner oriented motorcycles now have ABS.

vtsnowedin wrote:
One strategy might be to improve AI driving abilities of the vehicles so that becomes impossible to crash them even on purpose. That won't help a parked EV that some other vehicle crashes into.


The level of autonomy of self driving cars hasn't solved the problem I've read that needs solving....what happens when your AI decides it needs to kill its own driver in order to save the family of 4 in the other cage.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 05 Jun 2021, 21:43:13

There is plenty of room for improvement of AI systems but the art is advancing rapidly. The standard that really matters is public perception of safety and that sadly often depends of social media, not facts or science.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 06 Jun 2021, 00:05:54

Time for an inconvenient truth....

There is more confirmation of the point I've been making for years.......EVs don't reduce CO2 emissions to any significant degree over ICE vehicles because the EV battery mining, refining and manufacture releases a huge amount of CO2

inconvenient-truth-due-li-ions-heavy-carbon-footprint-evs-may-offer-negligible-co2

Image
An Inconvenient Truth.....EVs do not siginifantly reduce CO2 emissions when compared to ICE cars

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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 06 Jun 2021, 14:56:53

I would not be surprised to find that "study" assumed lithium was mined using a coal powered steam shovel or some other unlikely process to reach their predetermined conclusions. Other then the lithium for the battery everything else in a EV is just steel, copper , plastic , glass and paint etc. just like a ICE vehicle with a similar carbon imprint and even if the finished car has a higher initial carbon bill the savings from 6000 gallons of gas or diesel lifetime consumption certainly makes up for that even if some of the grid electricity still comes from coal as steam turbine generators are more efficient then ICE cars with their 33% efficiency rating.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 07 Jun 2021, 18:54:34

vtsnowedin wrote:I would not be surprised to find that "study" assumed lithium was mined using a coal powered steam shovel or some other unlikely process to reach their predetermined conclusions.


Yes, mining lithium is energy intensive. So is transporting it and refining it and then using it to manufacture the Lithium battery. All these things result in the carbon footprint of a new EV being much larger then the footprint of a new ICE car as measured when both come out of the factory door. The EV is already way behind the ICE vehicle in terms of total CO2 emissions before they get their first fill-up.

vtsnowedin wrote:...even if the finished car has a higher initial carbon bill the savings from 6000 gallons of gas or diesel lifetime consumption certainly makes up for that even if some of the grid electricity still comes from coal as steam turbine generators are more efficient then ICE cars with their 33% efficiency rating.


A coal-fired power plant has an efficiency of ca. 30%----similar to that of an ICE car.

But there is another things to consider----the energy loss as the electricity goes through the wires to the consumer. Another 10-15% of the energy is lost there. When you add in the energy loss from the initial power plant AND the energy loss from the transmission wires, the total loss of energy for an EV is actually 40-45%---i.e. significantly greater then the energy loss in an ICE engine. AND we've still got the energy loss from the EV energy to add in...another !5-20% energy loss occurs there.

Thus the total energy loss in an EV car system includes energy loss at the electrical coal-fired plant, energy loss over the wires, and energy loss in the EV engine for a total energy loss of 55-65% of the original energy....making the net efficiency of the EV about half of that of an ICE vehicle.

Thats not what the EV industry has been telling us, but those are typical real-world numbers.

Image
EVs vs ICE vehicles.....the energy savings and CO2 reduction from EVs isn't really all that significant when you look at all the energy inputs and energy losses ...

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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby JuanP » Mon 07 Jun 2021, 21:16:58

Plantagenet wrote:A coal-fired power plant has an efficiency of ca. 30%----similar to that of an ICE car.

But there is another things to consider----the energy loss as the electricity goes through the wires to the consumer. Another 10-15% of the energy is lost there. When you add in the energy loss from the initial power plant AND the energy loss from the transmission wires, the total loss of energy for an EV is actually 40-45%---i.e. significantly greater then the energy loss in an ICE engine. AND we've still got the energy loss from the EV energy to add in...another !5-20% energy loss occurs there.

Thus the total energy loss in an EV car system includes energy loss at the electrical coal-fired plant, energy loss over the wires, and energy loss in the EV engine for a total energy loss of 55-65% of the original energy....making the net efficiency of the EV about half of that of an ICE vehicle.

Cheers!


You left out the energy loss from charging AND discharging the batteries; there is energy loss in the car itself in the transformation from electrical energy at the plug to chemical energy at the battery, another energy loss in the transformation of that chemical energy into electricity to power the engine, and more loss in the transformation of that electricity into a mechanical force in the engine. There is also an energy cost in producing the source of the electricity, whatever the source, whether it is building windmills, PV panels, or hydroelectric dams, or extracting, growing, and/or producing fossil, biological, or nuclear fuels.

I like electric cars better than ICE cars, but I don't think they will solve anything as far as the environment is concerned. I like their convenience, quiet, and cleanliness for the users.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 07 Jun 2021, 23:28:46

JuanP wrote:I like electric cars better than ICE cars, but I don't think they will solve anything as far as the environment is concerned. I like their convenience, quiet, and cleanliness for the users.


Acceleration, convenience of fueling at home, microscopic maintenance needs, damn cheap on the used car market right now, I think there is enough fear of battery durability that it discounts the cages value in the minds of most folks.

I certainly haven't noticed increased fuel prices at the jihadi support stores in the least!
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby JuanP » Tue 08 Jun 2021, 18:47:03

"Huawei swerving from smartphones to smart cars"
https://asiatimes.com/2021/06/huawei-sw ... mart-cars/

"When Huawei set up a big center-stage booth at 2019’s Shanghai Auto Expo and showcased a few conceptual auto prototypes, Xu revealed in interviews that Huawei had since 2012 a dedicated team working on self-driving autos, battery technologies, cloud computing and the Internet of Things."

It is still not known what approach Huawei will take on its electric cars and smart cars business. They may focus on software, hardware, and/or even develop their own electric automobile brand. Huawei has revolutionized every industry it gets into, so they could become an important player in the electric and smart cars industries in the future.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 09 Jun 2021, 13:04:48

AdamB wrote:
JuanP wrote:I like electric cars better than ICE cars, but I don't think they will solve anything as far as the environment is concerned. I like their convenience, quiet, and cleanliness for the users.


Acceleration, convenience of fueling at home, microscopic maintenance needs, damn cheap on the used car market right now, I think there is enough fear of battery durability that it discounts the cages value in the minds of most folks.

In my mind, ANY expensive car repair comes under the title of "maintenance". And that would include replacing a worn out BEV battery, and also an HEV battery.

I don't buy cars with bad reputations for engine OR transmission issues, for example -- as $5,000ish potential repair bills while the car is still middle age is NOT something I'm looking for.

But with BEV batteries, especially large ones, you could be looking at multiple times that.

Maybe down the road with much better battery chemistries and more data / experience, that risk will be about as remote as a well treated highly reliable Toyota model having the transmission or engine fail before 100,000 miles. But we're nowhere near there yet.

So OK, avoiding oil changes is great. But that battery change risk just MASSIVELY TRUMPS all the other maintenance risk combined -- until it doesn't (whether by warranty, or just the batteries being demonstrated to be so very good (which should mean far better warranties)).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby aadbrd » Wed 09 Jun 2021, 14:25:33

Outcast_Searcher wrote:that would include replacing a worn out BEV battery


One word: warranty.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 09 Jun 2021, 20:02:47

Outcast_Searcher wrote:In my mind, ANY expensive car repair comes under the title of "maintenance". And that would include replacing a worn out BEV battery, and also an HEV battery.

But with BEV batteries, especially large ones, you could be looking at multiple times that.


I paid only slightly more for my most recent EV than a battery replacement for it. I consider the car disposable, based on the battery life alone, as it is an experiment. I've got 145K on the other battery powered car.

I went through your same battery concern with my 2 Gen I hybrids, trading off both of them early on the grounds that the NiMH battery would wear out with advancing mile and cost far more than I was willing to spend.

Turns out that this hasn't been an issue yet. Do they degrade? Yup. Has it mattered in the least so far? Nope.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Maybe down the road with much better battery chemistries and more data- experience, that risk will be about as remote as a well treated highly reliable Toyota model having the transmission or engine fail before 100,000 miles. But we're nowhere near there yet.


I'm at 145K and still going strong on my non-Toyota. The plan is to get it to 200K and evaluate if 300k seems reasonable.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:So OK, avoiding oil changes is great. But that battery change risk just MASSIVELY TRUMPS all the other maintenance risk combined -- until it doesn't (whether by warranty, or just the batteries being demonstrated to be so very good (which should mean far better warranties)).


It is a risk, and I was once worried about it same as you. But they have just held up fine to date. Give me another 100K on either of mine, and I'll know more about their long term reliability.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby aadbrd » Sat 12 Jun 2021, 14:50:10

This is a good snapshot of where we are and short to medium-term outlook from a mostly European perspective.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YrDzgUXCKgs

It's pretty easy to extrapolate from this to see that while we may not be following Tony Seba's adoption curve, it will be closer to that than merely a continuation of the status quo with some token compliance cars as cynics continue to suggest.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 12 Jun 2021, 15:33:47

AdamB wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:I expect that ,other then range per charge, the major competition will soon become which manufacturer can solve the problem of battery fires both during charging and after major crashes.

As long as no one holds them to any higher standard than the same problems in ICE powered machines, I've got no objection to making anything safer.

If the fires from BEV's with large batteries were similar to the typical ICE fire, it wouldn't be so concerning. I've seen a variety of ICE fires which started up from mechanical issues, and only ONE ended up being a serious thing. And the firemen put in out in about 2 minutes, most of that being removing the hood with an axe so so they could get TO the fire to extinguish it. The others smouldered and went out themselves -- never showing flame, but being mainly smoke but smelling like a fire.

The BEV large battery fires that burn for hours, restart MANY times, and cause literal explosions and burn spectacularly, and take thousands of gallons of water to control are in a whole different class, IMO. And we've seen those in the news both from crashes, and starting in parking spaces for no apparent reason at all.

While it's possible an ICE fire could burn down my house from my car port, I never worry about that, given the odds with a reasonably well maintained car. With a BEV with a large battery, I would worry about that until they improve that chemistry a LOT in that regard.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby evilgenius » Sun 13 Jun 2021, 11:58:26

Plantagenet wrote:Time for an inconvenient truth....

There is more confirmation of the point I've been making for years.......EVs don't reduce CO2 emissions to any significant degree over ICE vehicles because the EV battery mining, refining and manufacture releases a huge amount of CO2

inconvenient-truth-due-li-ions-heavy-carbon-footprint-evs-may-offer-negligible-co2

Image
An Inconvenient Truth.....EVs do not siginifantly reduce CO2 emissions when compared to ICE cars

CHEERs!

Recycling should have some impact. Batteries get dendrites. When they are remade they start new. They get remade using much less energy. And they are always looking to improve to solid state batteries. Those don't get dendrites. So, longer battery life.

I wonder if those will be available in after-market versions? I can see people who do decide to own a vehicle owning it as a platform. Electric motors won't wear out like ICE parts. New batteries would make, almost, a new car. They will still need ball joints, but I think, otherwise, software upgrades. But most will probably just summon a car when they need one.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 13 Jun 2021, 12:21:43

Whatever the technology is today I expect it to be much further advanced say five years from now. Both in designs of batteries and also in a moving away from China monopoly sources of raw materials. That could come from developing our own sources or finding an alternative battery configuration that does not rely on China supplied rare earth materials.
We can see the problem and that is the first step in finding solutions to that problem.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby aadbrd » Wed 16 Jun 2021, 13:41:16

There have been other stories similar to this one as well.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/16/gm-ups- ... -2025.html

It should be clear by now that the major automakers are indeed serious this time and that despite the seeming intractability of oil demand, this much investment will eventually come out the other side in relieving that demand. If we are headed, as some here suggest, to another round of $100+ oil prices, that will only validate these investments and catalyze consumers to make the switch.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby aadbrd » Wed 16 Jun 2021, 13:51:03

evilgenius wrote:Recycling should have some impact.


It should be common knowledge that the #1 recyclable product are lead-acid batteries. We should be able to get there with lithium as well, but don't bother rebutting Plantagenet since he is only interested in FUD.
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