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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 05 Jun 2021, 19:39:20

AdamB wrote:I've changed my portfolio to reflect additional diversification. The market since 2009 has been a firm reminder that the incessant whining of particulars doesn't change some basic dynamics of such things.

.

I currently own small amounts of 33 different stocks plus two index funds one of which tracks the Nasdaq and the other the whole market. I also have twenty more I'm watching and will pick some of those to add to my account when cash becomes available. So I am pretty diversified and I'm not concentrated on one segment of the market.
The market could of course have a major correction considering who is at the controls of the economy but if that happens I will consider it a buying opportunity.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 05 Jun 2021, 21:07:17

vtsnowedin wrote: The market could of course have a major correction considering who is at the controls of the economy but if that happens I will consider it a buying opportunity.


Same here. It worked in 2009, and I didn't mind Trump's correction either. I've got some dry powder around for just such circumstances.
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 05 Jun 2021, 22:28:45

mousepad wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Global food prices jumped 40 percent in May YoY,
Inflation is rampant


There's no inflation, just ask outcast. Just like with cars, food is more expensive because you get BENEFITS. Food is now high tech. What used to be a simple tomato is now a complicated high tech piece of gene manipulated, disease preventing, taste enhancing, picture perfect experience. You pay more, but you also get so much more than in the past. :)

I have repeatedly said that there's plenty of inflation in the short term.

But keep distorting things, as though that makes you credible.

As I've repeatedly said, the issue is whether we have significant inflation in the long term.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 05 Jun 2021, 22:32:03

Armageddon wrote:Global food prices jumped 40 percent in May YoY, the U.N. said Thursday.

The food price index has now risen for 12 consecutive months to reach its highest value since Sep. 2011


Inflation is rampant

And where's your citation? Do you EVER learn?

Specifics matter?

Which food prices? Are they talking actual food prices, some commodity prices, or what?

Certainly, most food prices where I shop and where I get carryout haven't climbed anywhere NEAR 40%.

But I know, you have doom to sell, and all you can do is whine when someone points out how often you are FAR from credible, re what you persistently try to sell, re economics.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 05 Jun 2021, 22:35:34

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Global food prices jumped 40 percent in May YoY, the U.N. said Thursday.

The food price index has now risen for 12 consecutive months to reach its highest value since Sep. 2011

Inflation is rampant

So I did some searching, since you can't bother to cite like an actual adult, and I found this:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/04/business ... index.html

Let's pretend that US food inflation (the US is what you've been mostly whining about constantly for years now). The last paragraph mentions a "whopping" 2.4% price increase for food in the US over a year.

Oh, the horror! :roll:

But I know -- since you want to constantly cherry pick doom, you now go to "global" if you have a single headline to mention a big number for it this week. 8O

Too bad cherry futures aren't the whole world. :P
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 06 Jun 2021, 15:12:18

From my own shopping experiences over this last year I see food and energy prices up between 25% and 35% year on year. Some are likely bottle necks in supply chains which may or may not work themselves out depending on the persistence of Covid and computer ransom hacking. Inflation for the average consumer is certainly not just 2.4% for anything you need on a regular basis.
I don't rent but property taxes continue to soar dealing with school spending to remodel for covid. The housing market here is up as much as 50% if you can find anything to buy. Restaurant prices are going up as $20/ hr. dishwashers and line cooks are hard to find. The list goes on down to $22.50 for a simple garden hoe made in China at tractor supply plus 6% sales tax.
They have a handle on inflation? Yah and I have a bridge to sell you real cheap.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 06 Jun 2021, 19:11:46

Yup, I am not buying 2.4 % inflation either. Everything I am buying is up.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby Tuike » Mon 07 Jun 2021, 04:21:23

When arab spring occured in 2011, FAO Food Price Index was 131.9. It was 127.1 in May.
http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/f ... sindex/en/
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby mousepad » Mon 07 Jun 2021, 06:36:35

Newfie wrote:Yup, I am not buying 2.4 % inflation either. Everything I am buying is up.


Doesn't the US inflation index cheat its way around the meaning by excluding fuel and food from the calculation?
If the only thing in the basket is electronics I'm sure you can come up with a very low inflation.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 10 Jun 2021, 19:45:45

FEDERAL RESERVE BALANCE SHEET TOPS $8 TRILLION FOR THE FIRST TIME…

More predictions coming true.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 11 Jun 2021, 13:46:55

Imagine what would happen to the stock market if the Federal Reserve stopped buying $120 billion a month in bonds?

Oh yeah... the Federal Reserve is also buying $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities a month.

What would happen?

Collapse.

We don't live in free markets...
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 11 Jun 2021, 22:18:32

mousepad wrote:
Newfie wrote:Yup, I am not buying 2.4 % inflation either. Everything I am buying is up.


Doesn't the US inflation index cheat its way around the meaning by excluding fuel and food from the calculation?
If the only thing in the basket is electronics I'm sure you can come up with a very low inflation.

No. There is more than one CPI index measurement. The one that excludes food and energy helps show the actual trend, month to month, since both of those things are highly volatile in the short term, and significant components of overall spending.

The US government indexes don't cheat. (They're well defined if people would bother to read). Everything isn't a conspiracy. :roll:

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/

Look at the first chart. The official US government CPI is showing ALL ITEMS, all items less food and energy, and breaking out both food and energy.

For the past 12 months, despite all the whining about food prices, food has less inflation than things overall. Energy has shown a LOT of inflation, and given what oil prices have done, that's not at all surprising.

Both at the grocery store and the places I eat take-out (not a lot of places since Covid), food prices have been quite muted, overall, though there were jumps now and again with meat.

I think people tend to notice price X rise now and again and then extrapolate that to "inflation is horrendous".
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 12 Jun 2021, 08:01:19

Outcast,

Thanks for the links and info.

So CPI for ALL was up 0.6% last month. That's 7.2% annual, if it keeps up.

We eat out a couple of times a week. I find food prices have gone up a lot. Not very scientific and perhaps reflects my age more than anything else.

Our dining is more utilitarian, typically a diner or hole in the wall. Yet hamburgers are $10-$12, i paid $14 for a ruben the other day. Strikes me as a bunch.

Burger King sells Whoppers 2 for $5. That is a real bargain but more than I eat, I have taken one home. LOL

I watch Zillo for our house value. It is appreciating a 2% to 3-1/2% per MONTH. That is a huge amount. We do not intend to sell, but it is interesting to view.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 12 Jun 2021, 09:01:39

Tuike wrote:When arab spring occured in 2011, FAO Food Price Index was 131.9. It was 127.1 in May.
http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/f ... sindex/en/

That's a very interesting observation. I too remember how much food was involved.

These are the times that try men's souls. When the Arab Spring took place people wanted it to be for all of the best reasons. Turns out, folks weren't so concerned about freedom or democracy as getting something to eat.

In that part of the world, people are not used to standing up for themselves. They usually get beaten down every time they try. It probably feels good to bring freedom and democracy in through the back door.

What I mean by trying men's souls, though, is whether people can act upon their best intentions or continue to choose error. The error of the current order doesn't allow much of an economy to develop in the Arab world. They don't have a middle class in the same way that even the Chinese have developed, and seek to develop, a middle class. There is no political competition for power. There is the choice of who the next authoritarian will be. That's been about it.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 12 Jun 2021, 14:36:00

Newfie wrote:Outcast,

Thanks for the links and info.

So CPI for ALL was up 0.6% last month. That's 7.2% annual, if it keeps up.

We eat out a couple of times a week. I find food prices have gone up a lot. Not very scientific and perhaps reflects my age more than anything else.

Our dining is more utilitarian, typically a diner or hole in the wall. Yet hamburgers are $10-$12, i paid $14 for a ruben the other day. Strikes me as a bunch.

Burger King sells Whoppers 2 for $5. That is a real bargain but more than I eat, I have taken one home. LOL

I watch Zillo for our house value. It is appreciating a 2% to 3-1/2% per MONTH. That is a huge amount. We do not intend to sell, but it is interesting to view.

That's the thing re the inflation. Yes, .6% is high. If that lasts more than a few months (which the Fed is claiming it won't, so we'll see), then that IS a problem. It's not doom, but it's approaching 70's style inflation which is BAD. The only good news from that for years would be a great big reduction in the real world value of the US debt.

But it's patchy. Housing prices are insane in some areas. Other things have little inflation. But the overall inflation is what makes the official headline government numbers, and they measure a lot of stuff to get those numbers.

I still love Wendy's value salads. Too bad I no longer eat burgers (I no longer eat bread). I used to love the Jr. Cheeseburgers at Wendy's and the cheeseburgers at McDonalds, both of which I could get for ONE dollar a mile from my house, for years through 2019. (One thing I can do is stretch a dollar until it screams, re my depression era parents).

I guess it depends on where you eat. $12 or $14 for a sandwich strikes me as INSANE if it's not fine dining, but there I am tugging on that dollar again. :) I still get nice large Mexican or Chinese meals at the nice small quiet places I like to go, as carry-out for $10 to $14, and that makes THREE satisfying main meals for me these days, maintaining my weight below 130 lbs. Such prices for me have risen zero to about 10% since 2019, depending on where I eat. And that's with the extra expenses of dealing with the pandemic, which presumably will settle down over time. At the grocery, meat is clearly up noticeably but NOT insanely, but fruits and veggies are the same overall whether fresh or canned.

Part of the restaurant inflation may be due to how much competition there is locally. We have a VERY high resturant per capita ratio in my city, so that might help keep prices more in line here.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 12 Jun 2021, 15:32:19

I just returned from a graduation lunch for eight adults and a toddler. Italian themed sit down restaurant very middle class. Tab plus tip was $285. That is about 30% above what it would have been a year or so ago. Plus they were under staffed and some of the food items had issues like a salad where they forgot to put the cheese in the name actually into the bowl.
First time I have sat in a restaurant in over a year so an improvement if A bit pricey.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 12 Jun 2021, 15:44:38

vtsnowedin wrote:I just returned from a graduation lunch for eight adults and a toddler. Italian themed sit down restaurant very middle class. Tab plus tip was $285. That is about 30% above what it would have been a year or so ago. Plus they were under staffed and some of the food items had issues like a salad where they forgot to put the cheese in the name actually into the bowl.
First time I have sat in a restaurant in over a year so an improvement if A bit pricey.

And that's why they do broad statistical surveys and calculations to calculate government stats. Because those numbers mean far more than whether anecdotally, we experience 0% inflation here, or 30% inflation there, re our reckoning.

I'm looking forward to confirming I actually have lots of active antibodies working to prevent Covid-19 this summer, so I'm willing to sit in a restaurant again, and be able to actually relax and enjoy myself. Thus far, given the numbers and the evolving variants, I just can't bring myself to do that yet -- I just wouldn't enjoy it. I'm OK now being outside with some people I know, but not inside with a lot of strangers.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby evilgenius » Sun 13 Jun 2021, 08:56:48

Armageddon wrote:Imagine what would happen to the stock market if the Federal Reserve stopped buying $120 billion a month in bonds?

Oh yeah... the Federal Reserve is also buying $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities a month.

What would happen?

Collapse.

We don't live in free markets...

Does that really mean we don't live in free markets? I like the question. It has gravitas.

I just don't think that maintenance of a system constitutes a violation of principles. During times like these steps get taken. Then, because fixes like those weren't brought about by market actions, more stuff has to be done. It's iterative by nature. And the Fed has targets they try for. They do communicate them. During these times the Fed may sound more confident than it really is. Or their confidence may be based upon numbers we can't see. Ultimately, they have to be appointed. Those cycles of appointment tie them to the people. Because this is a Republic, that is as close as is necessary.

But, right now, market actions could mean total annihilation of entire classes of people economically. Just look at the shipping problems taking place all around the globe. China has a new outbreak in the south, so ships can't leave a major port. Things get rerouted. Stuff doesn't arrive on time. Retailers all across the globe are already starting to order for Christmas because they have worries that they can't get things quickly enough. Just in time isn't working very well right now.

Just in time made things cheaper. At least Biden hasn't pulled a full-on Nixon and declared a wage/price freeze. That was a move that took place outside of markets. It hit the poorest the hardest. But poor people don't get to negotiate anyway. They gravitate toward the best that is available to them.

If the job market is good that means poor people don't have to worry so much about certain things. Those things are worries for them, though. Most poor people don't engage in addressing them directly. They don't start their own businesses. They don't get into what things cost so much. They think more about take home pay. They are an example of what markets look like from a certain self-interested perspective. Business owners have a different perspective.

Times like these are opportunities for some, and traps for others. Market based thinking offers some kind of more level playing field, but it still comes with politics attached. I actually think these periods are good for regular people because it is during more robust times that the Fed is actually more likely to ignore them. They pay attention to them now because the class of people, owners, that they care more about then need the working class to survive. But they sure as hell don't want them to get too uppity. These $15 an hour things will get replaced by $11 an hour things pretty quickly, just watch. And any notion of worker's wages rising in accordance with a temporary surge in inflation is always nonsense!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 14 Jun 2021, 19:16:28

My friend is the head butcher at a major grocery chain.
He told me today there’s a major price spike coming VERY soon in beef prices. Like 40-60%.


We are in the midst of massive inflation. Are the 3 stooges on here still in denial?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 22

Unread postby jedrider » Mon 14 Jun 2021, 20:26:52

Armageddon wrote:My friend is the head butcher at a major grocery chain.
He told me today there’s a major price spike coming VERY soon in beef prices. Like 40-60%.

We are in the midst of massive inflation. Are the 3 stooges on here still in denial?


The printing can't stop or else one or other of the political parties will be out of the running next election.

Certainly, the economy can be a victim of this hyper-partisanship. But, this can still go on for a while.

As long as wages can be < $15 an hour, what is there to worry about if one can still get cheap labor?

I suppose you want them to have a place to live as well? Nope. Not happening.
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