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The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby jedrider » Fri 04 Jun 2021, 13:58:58

A 'megadrought' in California is expected to lead to water shortages for production of everything from avocados to almonds, and could cause prices to rise
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/a-megadrought-in-california-is-expected-to-lead-to-water-shortages-for-production-of-everything-from-avocados-to-almonds-and-could-cause-prices-to-rise/ar-AAKIg4T?ocid=msedgntp

In California, the Megadrought is here already. I'm waiting for more restrictions on water use, but I'm not seeing them, at least, for the cities.

Los Angeles has always known that it exists in the middle of a desert, so it has been stockpiling water all these years. Still, the reservoirs are not doing well and ground water pumping is problematic as towns are having their wells run dry.

California supplies 25% of the nations produce, but for how long?

Either a state has too little water or too much water, but where is there just the right amount?
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Azothius » Sat 05 Jun 2021, 14:02:02

Worst Drought in Decades Escalates Threats Across U.S. West
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/wors ... 43151.html

(Bloomberg) -- Almost three-fourths of the western U.S. is gripped by drought so severe that it’s off the charts of anything recorded in the 20-year history of the U.S. Drought Monitor.Mountains across the West have seen little precipitation, robbing reservoirs of dearly needed snowmelt and rain, said Brad Rippey, a meteorologist and Drought Monitor author with the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The parched conditions mean the wildfire threat is high and farmers are struggling to irrigate crops.


As Dissident wrote in the Carbon Dioxide Thread:
"The only way humanity will start to move [on CO2 emissions] is if it feels enough collective pain. "
~ regrettably, "thoughts and prayers" are the preferred solution to all crises.

Utah governor asks residents to pray for rain to combat a severe drought
https://www.yahoo.com/news/utah-governo ... 17740.html

GOP Gov. Spencer Cox of Utah on Thursday asked state residents to engage in a "weekend of prayer" for rain amid a severe drought.

Cox's request came after he declared a state of emergency last month. The entire state is considered to be "abnormally dry," with 90.2 percent of Utah undergoing an "extreme drought" and 62.2 percent of the state experiencing an "exceptional drought," according to the National Drought Mitigation Center.

Under such conditions, there is an increased risk of fire danger and native vegetation is adversely impacted.

"By praying collaboratively and collectively, asking God or whatever higher power you believe in, for more rain, we may be able to escape the deadliest aspects of the continuing drought," he said in a video. "Please join me and Utahns, regardless of religious affiliation, in a weekend of humble prayer for rain."
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby JuanP » Mon 07 Jun 2021, 14:19:42

"Hoover Dam, a symbol of the modern West, faces an epic water shortage"
https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/ ... 291323001/

""Mega-drought" takes dramatic toll on Colorado River system that provides water to 40 million people"
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/drought-co ... on-people/

The US Drought Monitor map looks pretty bad on the West.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 11 Jun 2021, 12:23:04


It's time to ask, "Is this a drought, or is it just the way the hydrology of the Colorado River is going to be?" said John Entsminger, the general manager of the Southern Nevada Water Authority.




https://news.yahoo.com/drought-wests-no ... 06545.html


"It isn't sneaking up on us," Entsminger said. "Since 2002, our population has increased close to 50 percent, about 750,000 people in the last 19 years or so, and over that same time our aggregated depletions from the Colorado River have gone down 23 percent."

The good news, he said, is that per capita water consumption is down by 40 percent. Indoor water is recycled in southern Nevada, where residents are paid to replace grass with drip-irrigated landscaping.



I don't hear that as “good news.” What I hear is that they have already picked the low hanging fruit of adaption and will shortly be facing tougher choices.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby JuanP » Fri 11 Jun 2021, 15:09:57

"'Red alert': Lake Mead falls to record-low level, a milestone in Colorado River's crisis"
https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/lo ... 621138002/

"When representatives of the seven states signed the Drought Contingency Plan on a terrace overlooking Hoover Dam in 2019, some of them described the deal as a “bridge” solution to temporarily lessen the risks of a damaging crash and buy time through 2026, by which time new rules for sharing shortages would be negotiated and adopted.

The agreement establishes a series of progressively larger water cutbacks if Lake Mead continues to drop below lower trigger points in the coming years.

If the reservoir drops about 26 more feet to below elevation 1,045 feet, California would start to take cuts.

And if the water level falls below 1,025 feet, which is a scenario the deal aims to avoid, the largest reductions would take effect for all three states and Mexico.

Increasingly, some researchers are voicing concerns that even the major cuts contemplated in the deal might not be enough. Some have suggested that with extremely dry conditions persisting in the watershed, the region’s water managers might need to take bigger steps before 2026 to prevent Mead’s levels from continuing to plummet.

“We really have seen this coming all along on some level,” said Brad Udall, a water and climate scientist at Colorado State University. “And we in some ways aren't ready for it, despite all the things we've done to make us feel good that we were ready for it.”

This is a longish, interesting article on the Colorado River basin drought, Lake Mead, the Hoover Dam, and water management measures taken so far, which seem to be insufficient.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby JuanP » Thu 17 Jun 2021, 22:05:55

"Only Aggressive Environmental Measures Can Prevent Another Imminent Water Crisis in Brazil"
https://www.counterpunch.org/2021/06/17 ... in-brazil/

"While much of the Western United States is currently experiencing extreme drought-like conditions, Brazil is about to face its own water crisis. In Brazil, though, the destruction of the Amazon rainforest is directly causing diminished rainfall, compromising the country’s power grid system. The majority of the electricity produced and consumed in the country comes from hydroelectric power, about 65% in total. Also, this has interrupted the water supply and upended the nation’s agricultural industry – all of which will clash with an already weakened economy in the coming months. This ever-growing problem, aggravated by the impacts of climate change, can only be mitigated if bold environmental actions are enacted right now.

This year, Brazil recorded its lowest rainfall in the past 91 years, which has left most the country’s water reservoirs depleted. In fact, its largest reservoir subsystem, located in the Midwest and Southeast regions, is only 33% full compared to an average water volume of about 64% at this time of the year. To make matters worse, this subsystem is also responsible for 70% of the electric power generation capability for the area."

I am having a deja vu experience! How many times have we been through this in the last 20 years? This is what will do in all of South America East of the Andes, IMO, the deforestation of the Amazon jungle leading to unimaginable changes in the continent's rain cycle, which will cause regular megadroughts. At some point in time a megadrought will kill a significant percentage of the surviving Amazon jungle. This event will cause a tipping point that will lead to a continuous positive feedback cycle of increasing droughts and deforestation. By the time it happens, it will be too late to do anything about it. The Amazon jungle will become a dessert and/or Savannah and the Amazon River basin will be decimated. This is the most important issue for preppers in Uruguay, as far as I can see.

Bye, bye lungs of the world!
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby JuanP » Fri 18 Jun 2021, 16:27:10

"Oroville water drop will force hydro-power plant offline"
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/orovi ... hp&pc=U531

"An unrelenting drought and record heat, both worsened by the changing climate, have pushed the water supply at Northern California's Lake Oroville to deplete rapidly. As a result of the "alarming levels," officials will likely be forced to close the Edward Hyatt Power Plant for the first time since it opened in 1967, California Energy Commission spokesperson Lindsay Buckley told CNN.

The water in Lake Oroville — the state's second largest reservoir — is pumped through underground facilities to generate electricity, which can power up to 800,000 homes when operating at full capacity."

I wonder how much longer this drought and heat wave will last. It's not even Summer yet! In 2021, the June solstice is Sunday, June 20, at 11:32 P.M. EDT. This date marks the official beginning of summer in the Northern Hemisphere.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 18 Jun 2021, 18:14:32

Image

500mb winds

Notice how there are multiple vortices.

I don’t follow this routinely enough over a long enough time. Does hint that the upper air circulation patterns are breaking down? Possibly. It seems rhe jury is still out.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/05 ... ere-winter
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Azothius » Sat 19 Jun 2021, 02:19:43

I'm no expert on this either, but will mention,

1. That site uses Hectopascals, not mmb
the difference: https://weather.mailasail.com/Franks-We ... -Millibars

2. I"ve always found the 250 hPa view the most interesting, as it shows the jet stream. But actually, ranging from the surface view to the 250 hPa view can all be enlightening.

3. if you compare the 250 hPa view on earth.nullschool with the 2m temperature anomaly maps on climatereanalyzer, you can almost always clearly see how the waviness of the jet stream is bringing the weather that different regions are experiencing.

the sites:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... ,68.52,308

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2anom
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 19 Jun 2021, 17:08:09

While I don't doubt that circulation patterns can and do change I have to think that they cannot fail completely. As long as the tropics are warmer then the poles and the earth is rotating under the atmosphere, air will circulate from north to south and back again with cyclonic patterns caused by the earths rotation.
I have lived long enough to see several changes over the years that brought droughts etc. to to a given region only to have the pattern change back after a few years and even over correct to balance out the long term averages.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 20 Jun 2021, 10:30:41

Azothius wrote:I'm no expert on this either, but will mention,

1. That site uses Hectopascals, not mmb
the difference: https://weather.mailasail.com/Franks-We ... -Millibars

2. I"ve always found the 250 hPa view the most interesting, as it shows the jet stream. But actually, ranging from the surface view to the 250 hPa view can all be enlightening.

3. if you compare the 250 hPa view on earth.nullschool with the 2m temperature anomaly maps on climatereanalyzer, you can almost always clearly see how the waviness of the jet stream is bringing the weather that different regions are experiencing.

the sites:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... ,68.52,308

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2anom



Yes, but 1 mb is 1hpa.

From your site.

Following the adoption of the Pascal as the SI unit of pressure, meteorologists chose the hectopascal as the international unit for measuring atmospheric pressure. (1 hPa = 100 Pascals = 1 mb.) The millibar is still often used in weather reports and forecasts for the public, but the term hectopascal is increasingly being used, especially on the Continent in general and France, in particular. After all, Pascal was a Frenchman!.


The 250 mb/hpa picture is also interesting. I used the 500mb level because it is often used i. Meterology such as NOAA open ocean forecasts. I suspect they are both valid.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 20 Jun 2021, 13:28:24

Test
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 20 Jun 2021, 17:07:31

ROCKMAN wrote:Test


Passed :-D
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