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Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 03 Jun 2021, 09:32:10

Newfie wrote:One would think the decreased economic activity from Covid would manifest as a decreased warming rate. But then if the economic stimulus packages kick in as intended the warming rate will return in 2022/23.

I have not seen any data to support this supposition. Just seems reasonable.


Clearly you have forgotten there is a 30-60 year time lag between when emissions take place and when their full effects take place. What we experience today is the effects of what humans were doing in the 1960-1991 period when emissions were still relatively modest.The next two decades will let us start feeling the effects of the Iraqi-Kuwait war, the break up of Yugoslavia and the very start of the Chinese two power plants every week building boom in coal consumption.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 03 Jun 2021, 09:36:26

Tanada,

Not forgotten, but thanks for the reminder. I also recall the rather immediate effects of the 9/11 aircraft grounding. MAYBE there are some short term effects working, in addition to the ling term effects. For example: loss of contrails allows short term effects.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby Azothius » Wed 16 Jun 2021, 10:57:19

Just some recent observations from: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index. ... l#lastPost


Still amazed at how awesomely average melt has been so far.


While the ESS, Laptev and the Atlantic sector of the CAB are in bad shape, the Beaufort, Chukchi, the CAA and the western CAB have relatively high area/extent and have enjoyed relatively benign conditions thus far, leading to rather late albedo drops.
Obviously with half the ice in good conditions a record will be hard to come by, though the weather can bring surprises.
However, the unknown factor is the amount of damage sustained in the CAB by last year's prolonged GAAC, also hinted by the low PIOMAS CAB volume, and exacerbated by the persistent export regime, first to the Fram and later to the Barents. A collapse of half the CAB ice could have a significant effect on the melting season, but is quite impossible to predict properly.


What do you mean by how awesomely average? Melt has been rapid in the Laptev sea and extent drops are increasing and we are slowly but surely edging towards the lowest extents. The weather has been warm at times with melt ponding coming quite early after another year of early snowcover melt.

If the warmth in the Laptev continues as its forecast too, SSTS are going to rise even further and will no doubt play a role how far north the ice edge will get. The ESS is more resilient this year which may help somewhat but my early season optimism has reduced somewhat and whilst I don't think we will reach record lows, another year of fast melt and being near or at the bottom of the pack is certainly possible.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 16 Jun 2021, 12:07:12

Azothius wrote:Just some recent observations from: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index. ... l#lastPost
Obviously with half the ice in good conditions a record will be hard to come by,


Actually, Arctic sea ice extent today is almost exactly on pace with the all-time record low in 2012.

charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

That means we have an EXCELLENT chance of setting a new all time low for sea ice extent later this year.

Cheers!
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby JuanP » Wed 16 Jun 2021, 20:10:09

Plantagenet wrote:
Azothius wrote:Just some recent observations from: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index. ... l#lastPost
Obviously with half the ice in good conditions a record will be hard to come by,


Actually, Arctic sea ice extent today is almost exactly on pace with the all-time record low in 2012.

charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

That means we have an EXCELLENT chance of setting a new all time low for sea ice extent later this year.

Cheers!


Plantagenet is correct. Arctic sea ice extent is at this time essentially the same it was on 2012 in mid June, which is the all time record low, so considering that the volume is significantly less now and we have had another decade of global warming since then, it is quite possible that we could have a new record Arctic sea ice extent low this year, but that will depend on the weather between now and then, too.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby dissident » Thu 17 Jun 2021, 00:27:05

We are dealing with a tipping point process when it comes to sea ice cover. After the volume declines to a critical level, the sea ice extent is going to disappear rapidly at a much earlier time. This will contribute to stabilizing the new low sea ice regime since the exposed water will absorb both solar energy and wind energy as wave action. Both will drive more current intensity and help lower latitude warm water to enter the Arctic basin. It will take longer for refreezing to occur and the heat energy in the upper ocean layer (about 1 meter below the surface and deeper from where it does not radiate to the atmosphere) will suppress sea ice volume directly. So ice free summers in the Arctic are going to happen.

Given the sea ice volume trend, it looks to me like the tipping point will arrive before 2040. We are set to bottom out to zero for September around 2030. The existing most linear trend will accelerate maybe even before 2030. The sea ice volume trend sums up the complacency we have about climate change. At the initial stage the trends are slow and linear. But they eventually manifest their nonlinearity.

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 17 Jun 2021, 02:47:31

And once the sea ice goes then we'll see a significant feedback effect on global warming due to the change in albedo etc. resulting from an ice-free Arctic ocean

Recent Global Climate Model computer runs suggest that once the Arctic Ocean is ice-free in summer it wil act to increase the overall temperature of the earth by +0.43° C.

Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice
Nico Wunderling, Matteo Willeit, Jonathan F. Donges & Ricarda Winkelmann
Nature Communications volume 11, Article number: 5177 (2020)


Image
Global warming causes an ice-free Arctic Ocean which will cause more global warming

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby Azothius » Thu 17 Jun 2021, 10:41:21

JuanP wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:
Azothius wrote:Just some recent observations from: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index. ... l#lastPost
Obviously with half the ice in good conditions a record will be hard to come by,


Actually, Arctic sea ice extent today is almost exactly on pace with the all-time record low in 2012.

charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

That means we have an EXCELLENT chance of setting a new all time low for sea ice extent later this year.

Cheers!


Plantagenet is correct. Arctic sea ice extent is at this time essentially the same it was on 2012 in mid June, which is the all time record low, so considering that the volume is significantly less now and we have had another decade of global warming since then, it is quite possible that we could have a new record Arctic sea ice extent low this year, but that will depend on the weather between now and then, too.


Good point about the diminished volume. And totally agree that there is a chance that a new record low could be set this year. Though I think its an overstatement to say that there is an excellent chance. As we all have witnessed, several of the past years seemed possibly headed for a new low that did not materialize. The ice cap has shown an unexpected resiliency. Thus far, its been the weather and not the state of the ice that has been the determining factor. Though as Dissident and Plantagenet point out, once that tipping point is crossed, it's game over.

Perhaps those here who are more well read than I can comment upon this (feigning my best science-speak): In complex systems, whether (social) political, economic, (geophysical) climatological, etc, as the system is going through a phase transition from one regime to another, there is an inherent self-perpetuating mechanism within the system that resists crossing the tipping point leading to the next regime. Not only do the same set of factors that maintained the system resist the disruption of the system, but new negative feedbacks come into play that reinforce the existing state even as positive feedbacks that would potentially lead to the new state are increasing. It is this struggle between the two sets of feedbacks that ultimately produces the non-linear, abrupt transition from one state to the next, rather than the system undergoing a smooth transition. [edit: For if the positive feedbacks overwhelm the negative, they will have amassed significant cumulative forces (or effects?) (or power?) during the standoff and are now free to unleash their full impacts.] Whether or not the system actually undergoes the phase transition is dependent upon which set of feedbacks prevail.

1. Don't beat up on me for sounding pseudo-scientific. Just trying to articulate something.
2. Where would I have encountered this concept? I can't recall.
3. Would love to hear everyone's thoughts about this as it applies the the arctic sea ice.
Last edited by Azothius on Thu 17 Jun 2021, 12:18:21, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 17 Jun 2021, 11:20:18

I do not know about Arctic sea ice. Maybe.

You MAY have read in Limits to Growth, if not the original one of updates. IIRC, and it has been a while, they said something very similar. The pointed out their model only worked well on the upswing. Then when one of the major indicators broke bad (hit tipping point) it resonate against all other indicators creating a chaotic situation that could not be predicted.

I think there is a good possibility that humanities various systems are approaching said tipping point.

Your explanation was good, captures the mechanism for a chaotic collapse.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby Azothius » Thu 17 Jun 2021, 12:22:16

Thank you, Newfie.

Newfie wrote:
I think there is a good possibility that humanities various systems are approaching said tipping point.


I absolutely agree with this.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby JuanP » Thu 17 Jun 2021, 15:11:24

Azothius wrote:Good point about the diminished volume. And totally agree that there is a chance that a new record low could be set this year. Though I think its an overstatement to say that there is an excellent chance. As we all have witnessed, several of the past years seemed possibly headed for a new low that did not materialize. The ice cap has shown an unexpected resiliency. Thus far, its been the weather and not the state of the ice that has been the determining factor. Though as Dissident and Plantagenet point out, once that tipping point is crossed, it's game over.

Perhaps those here who are more well read than I can comment upon this (feigning my best science-speak): In complex systems, whether (social) political, economic, (geophysical) climatological, etc, as the system is going through a phase transition from one regime to another, there is an inherent self-perpetuating mechanism within the system that resists crossing the tipping point leading to the next regime. Not only do the same set of factors that maintained the system resist the disruption of the system, but new negative feedbacks come into play that reinforce the existing state even as positive feedbacks that would potentially lead to the new state are increasing. It is this struggle between the two sets of feedbacks that ultimately produces the non-linear, abrupt transition from one state to the next, rather than the system undergoing a smooth transition. [edit: For if the positive feedbacks overwhelm the negative, they will have amassed significant cumulative forces (or effects?) (or power?) during the standoff and are now free to unleash their full impacts.] Whether or not the system actually undergoes the phase transition is dependent upon which set of feedbacks prevail.

1. Don't beat up on me for sounding pseudo-scientific. Just trying to articulate something.
2. Where would I have encountered this concept? I can't recall.
3. Would love to hear everyone's thoughts about this as it applies the the arctic sea ice.


I agree with your comment completely.

As far as the observations on the nonlinearity of the evolution of these type of processes and the balance of negative and positive feedbacks, I won't pretend to be well read or have a strong science background, but I have believed this to be the case for a number of years now. Also, as Plantagenet, Dissident, and you pointed out once we pass a tipping point going back would be unlikely. It would require a new tipping point in the opposite direction, which considering current trends I don't see happening in our lifetimes. I believe this concept applies to a number of issues, including Arctic sea ice extent. I've read that, too, and, just like you, I don't remember where, but it sounds convincing to me and I am completely sold on the idea of this nonlinearity.

The Arctic sea ice could almost completely melt any year now. The necessary conditions are already there. A blue Arctic Ocean event will become increasingly likely with every passing year. I clearly remember scientists saying that this would NOT happen before the end of the century about a decade ago, maybe on one of the IPCC reports. I read that section out loud to my wife and couldn't stop laughing about it. I knew they were very wrong. All these Global Warming and Climate Change consequences are going to land on us like a ton of bricks much faster than anticipated.

Another consequence that is extremely likely to evolve nonlinearly is sea level rise. Some chunks of ice in Greenland or the Antarctic are going to fall into the ocean very fast raising sea level very significantly, and it will happen in hours, days, weeks, or months, not decades; it's a matter of when, not if. Most people are going to be extremely surprised when it happens.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby JuanP » Thu 17 Jun 2021, 15:28:49

Newfie wrote:I do not know about Arctic sea ice. Maybe.

You MAY have read in Limits to Growth, if not the original one of updates. IIRC, and it has been a while, they said something very similar. The pointed out their model only worked well on the upswing. Then when one of the major indicators broke bad (hit tipping point) it resonate against all other indicators creating a chaotic situation that could not be predicted.

I think there is a good possibility that humanities various systems are approaching said tipping point.

Your explanation was good, captures the mechanism for a chaotic collapse.


This is a very important point. Nobody knows what will happen on the other side of the curve. The rules of the game will be different then.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby dissident » Thu 17 Jun 2021, 17:53:52

The IPCC a couple rounds ago was summarizing simulations from GCMs running brain dead simplified sea ice submodels. They basically had some slab ocean and slab ice which behaved like a giant ice cube (same crap for the land ice) that exhibited no real world characteristics of ice sheet dynamics. Ice sheets change volumetrically and not via some surface ablation or accretion. The slab ocean models used in these climate GCMs did not have any current transfer of warm water from lower latitudes. They were basically 1D (vertical) energy balanced models.

For some reason this Mickey Mouse representation of critical ice physics in GCMs became accepted as realistic so people have been "surprised" by the pace of change in the real world. Well, no sh*t Sherlock.
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