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PeakOil is You

Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 24 May 2021, 16:13:57

aadbrd wrote:
Baduila wrote:Without comment.


Stop posting graphs without comment. If there's anything that's been communicated to you is that what seems obvious to you in these graphs is not obvious to others. Don't be lazy.


Or stupid. Or both at the same time. This poster still can't explain why the same method used to predict $0/bbl suddenly decided "oops...now was THAT stupid or what!" and presto! Different answer!
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Roxy » Tue 25 May 2021, 12:01:49

Whoever predicated oil would go to zero must have been a genius. About a year ago it did go to zero and even all the way down to minus $43.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 25 May 2021, 13:53:51

Roxy wrote:Whoever predicated oil would go to zero must have been a genius. About a year ago it did go to zero and even all the way down to minus $43.


The author has claimed the numbers output from his method were yearly averages. Sorry, no genius involved, just run of the mill dumbassery.
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 26 May 2021, 10:28:57

Roxy wrote:Whoever predicated oil would go to zero must have been a genius. About a year ago it did go to zero and even all the way down to minus $43.

When a SINGLE pricing FLUKE due to a futures contract requirement in the short term has ANY meaning re what it costs consumers on average to buy gasoline, diesel, etc. over the course of a year, be sure and get back to us.

As it it, unless your comment was sarcastic, it was silly at best.

(Looking back at your comment history, you were apparently serious. :roll:
I can see that trying to talk to you would be like trying to talk to short. Good luck in life, being immune to math, logic, facts, etc).

ETP, as it was framed and preached, has been shown to be total nonsense over time.

Oil (i.e. WTI) is NOT moving anywhere toward zero price over the course of a year, even in an economy that is moving away from it as a trend for ground transport. It's already mid-2021, and it was supposed to be at about $2 by year end. Case closed to anyone with eyes to see and a brain to think. For context, WTI has roughly doubled in the past year, and it's been roughly holding in the mid $60's on average for well over 2 months now.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby aadbrd » Wed 26 May 2021, 15:50:18

The only value this thread has is a case-study in how a small number of people refuse to let go of their world-view now matter how obviously wrong it is revealed to be.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 30 May 2021, 10:47:23

aadbrd wrote:The only value this thread has is a case-study in how a small number of people refuse to let go of their world-view now matter how obviously wrong it is revealed to be.

Actually, I've noticed over the past year how Seeking Alpha is often an example of that principle for virtually any popular stock.

Bulls are bulls and bears are bears, and all facts can be hand waved away.

The proportion of posters on stock X who are insistent that their stock will provide them outsized gains real soon now, month after month, because they like the stock, is amazing, IMO. You'd think statistics didn't exist or economic reality didn't matter and stock market and economic history didn't exist.

So on this topic, it's a small number. But for economics in general, at least for the stock market, it seems to be a rather large number.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby aadbrd » Tue 01 Jun 2021, 21:06:25

I wonder how much longer this thread will limp its way forward if oil prices keep rising...
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