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Wind & Solar Are Wrong Path Pt. 2

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: Wind & Solar Are Wrong Path Pt. 2

Unread postby StarvingLion » Mon 15 Feb 2021, 19:27:54

I have no doubt whatsoever that very large explosions will be going off within Washington, DC no later than March 30, 2021. I stake my credibility upon it.

Because nothing else will stop Y-axis "investing" and endless piles of worthless money.
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Re: Wind & Solar Are Wrong Path Pt. 2

Unread postby kublikhan » Mon 15 Feb 2021, 19:48:52

OutcastPhilosopher wrote:This just goes to show the futility of it all.

Wind/Solar will never be a replacement for Fossil Fuels.
As I stated earlier, the majority of this disruption came from fossil fueled plants. So no free pass for extreme weather events on the fossil fuel front. Energy storage on the other hand can help mitigate disruptions like this. And with it dropping in price this market is quickly expanding.

The main cost driver of a fossil fuel peaker plant is that in order to meet peak demand, it needs to be fully manned and in operation 24/7. The PEAK coalition reported that in the past decade, peaker plants cost ratepayers an estimated $4.5 billion just to be on standby, and are utilized for only a few hundred hours a year. Contrast that with a solar + storage peaker that requires minimal human supervision and does not need to be constantly refueled, and a strong argument emerges for solar + storage for peak power generation.

Today it is more economical to build new renewables generation sources than to run existing coal or to build new natural gas plants. By 2032 it is predicted that the cost of building new solar + storage plants will be lower than the cost of running existing natural gas plants. This means that 90% of the currently proposed natural gas plants which would come online by 2032 will become uneconomic to operate by the time they are brought online. There is no need to wait until 2032 to see this begin to play out, however. In 2019, General Electric announced plans to close a 750 MW natural gas peaker that had 20 years remaining in its planned lifespan. One of the main reasons cited for that closure was a problematic 1-hour ramp up time, as opposed the immediate availability of solar + storage.

There are a growing number of government mandates requiring states to procure significant amounts of energy storage. Batteries can now compete for as much as 82% of projected new combustion turbine capacity over the next decade. Wind and solar installments scheduled to come online could displace up to 1.42 billion cubic feet per day of gas demand for electric power.

Energy storage has solved the variability problem of renewable energy, enabling it to not only compete with traditional power generation, but to push natural gas peaker plants towards extinction. It will be interesting to see how these greener technologies impact the electricity grid in the coming years.
Solar plus Storage is Displacing Natural Gas Peaker Plants

Energy storage developers once steered clear of the Lone Star State. No longer. It took a while, but the Texas grid battery market is officially heating up.

The broader story is that multiple experienced energy investors are converging on Texas simultaneously. The interconnection queue contains more than two dozen batteries that are each larger than 100 megawatts; some go up to 300, 400, even 500 megawatts. projects in motion will soon give Texas enough battery capacity to rival a combined-cycle gas plant, signaling a historic shift in the market's generation stack.
The Race Is On to Build the Biggest Batteries in Texas

The market for energy storage is expected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 24. 38% during the forecast period of 2020 – 2025. In an attempt to make the power industry more effective, a new trend in electric power production has witnessed intense development during the recent past, which is energy storage.
Energy Storage Market - Growth, Trends, and Forecast (2020 - 2025)

By 2030, stationary and transportation energy storage combined markets are estimated to grow 2.5–4 terawatt-hours (TWh) annually, approximately three to five times the current 800-gigawatt-hour (GWh) market. Although once considered the missing link for high levels of grid-tied renewable electricity, stationary energy storage is no longer seen as a barrier, but rather a real opportunity to identify the most cost-effective technologies for increasing grid reliability, resilience, and demand management.
Energy Storage Market Report
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Re: Wind & Solar Are Wrong Path Pt. 2

Unread postby jawagord » Mon 15 Feb 2021, 21:36:09

Texas wind power production less than 2 MW currently from ERCOT, from an installed base of 31 MW, online or off line, wind not producing much.

http://www.ercot.com/content/cdr/html/C ... P_HSL.html

Meanwhile in frigid Alberta our coal and gas fired generators are humming along (it’s called winterization), even our wind turbines are generating at a higher online percentage than Texas wind!

http://ets.aeso.ca/ets_web/ip/Market/Re ... ortServlet
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Re: Wind & Solar Are Wrong Path Pt. 2

Unread postby kublikhan » Mon 15 Feb 2021, 22:08:58

That's because in Alberta they are used to frigid temperatures. But for Texas, this is highly unusual. Supposedly after this happened in 2011 Texas was supposed to winterize it's plants. But they were not prepared for this once in a hundred year event.

After a cold event in 2011 that took power offline, power generators claim they did a better job of "winterizing" power plants, but Abbott says it didn't go far enough.

"I think after what happened in 2011, an assessment was not made to gauge for this type of event, because the last time we had this type of weather was more than 100 years ago," Abbott said. "We need to calibrate for this type of weather to make sure that the companies that are contracted with to provide the power generation in the state of Texas are going to be capable of providing power generation in these ultra cold temperatures."
Abbott: blame outages on power generators
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Re: Wind & Solar Are Wrong Path Pt. 2

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Mon 15 Feb 2021, 22:11:17

jawagord wrote:Texas wind power production less than 2 MW currently from ERCOT, from an installed base of 31 MW, online or off line, wind not producing much.

http://www.ercot.com/content/cdr/html/C ... P_HSL.html

Meanwhile in frigid Alberta our coal and gas fired generators are humming along (it’s called winterization), even our wind turbines are generating at a higher online percentage than Texas wind!

http://ets.aeso.ca/ets_web/ip/Market/Re ... ortServlet


Not sure why you are picking on wind specifically. The current weather in Texas didn't just disrupt wind generation, other forms of generation were also disrupted by the weather. It looks like more of a case that not all of their generation infrastructure was designed to cope with this type of weather. Considering these conditions are fairly rare it should not be too surprising that some designs assumed weather conditions would always be less severe than this. Designing everything for more severe cold weather would almost certainly have resulted in higher costs.
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Re: Wind & Solar Are Wrong Path Pt. 2

Unread postby jawagord » Tue 16 Feb 2021, 23:04:14

kublikhan wrote:That's because in Alberta they are used to frigid temperatures. But for Texas, this is highly unusual. Supposedly after this happened in 2011 Texas was supposed to winterize it's plants. But they were not prepared for this once in a hundred year event.

After a cold event in 2011 that took power offline, power generators claim they did a better job of "winterizing" power plants, but Abbott says it didn't go far enough.

"I think after what happened in 2011, an assessment was not made to gauge for this type of event, because the last time we had this type of weather was more than 100 years ago," Abbott said. "We need to calibrate for this type of weather to make sure that the companies that are contracted with to provide the power generation in the state of Texas are going to be capable of providing power generation in these ultra cold temperatures."
Abbott: blame outages on power generators


A “Great Arctic Outbreak” seems to hit Texas once every decade or two, but not often enough to make changes to power systems. By the time the government investigates and reports and makes recommendations, this cold weather will be long forgotten, again.

Houston is no stranger to extreme freezes. The grandfather of freezes occurred almost at exactly the same time as this freeze back in 1899. The low temperature hit 6 degrees on two consecutive nights with a high temperature on the 13th of only 20 degrees--the coldest afternoon ever experienced in Houston.
Above is a list of the single digits we've previously seen before. The last time Houston hit the single digits was on December 23rd, 1989, just two days before Christmas:

https://www.khou.com/article/news/local ... a4619c19b5

The report from the Public Utility Commission of Texas is clear in its analysis of what went wrong:

“The winter freeze greatly strained the ability of the Texas electric utilities to provide reliable power to their customers. Record and near-record low temperatures were felt throughout the state resulting in a significantly increased demand for electrical power.


“At the same time that demand was increasing, weather-related equipment malfunctions were causing generating units to trip off the line.” As a result, it noted, the state suffered widespread rolling blackouts and “near loss of the entire ERCOT electric grid.”

ERCOT is still the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. But the PUC report wasn’t analyzing the power outages that hit a large swath of Texas when temperatures plunged this past February. The report is dated November 1990 and is referring to the record freeze of late December 1989.


https://www.statesman.com/article/20110 ... /304119704
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Re: Wind & Solar Are Wrong Path Pt. 2

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 17 Feb 2021, 00:22:23

Exactly my point. Houston last got single digit temperatures 31 years ago. But single digits or lower hit Alberta every year. There is much greater incentive and return on investment to winterize power plants in Alberta that there is in Houston.

Generators in chillier regions are typically compelled by federal or state rules to protect their plants from the elements, Texas plants can leave their pipes, valves and pressure gauges exposed. It’s cheaper that way. “The power plants in the Northeast, we put exterior closures around it. They wrap a building around the plant.” “Some of it too is just the cost of capital,” said Joseph Triepke, founder of the industry research firm Infill Thinking. “We’re all trying to run so lean, and this kind of weather is a once-every-several-years or more kind of thing. You’re just not going to invest in having that winterization infrastructure on hand.”
Texas Power Plants Shut by Cold Left Pipes Exposed to Elements
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Re: Wind & Solar Are Wrong Path Pt. 2

Unread postby Pops » Wed 17 Feb 2021, 08:21:30

The way I read it, the only reason wind isn't the main culprit is it isn't the main source.

Wind contributes 25% now but half is offline— to say it is only 10% of the problem is shortsighted. When it is 80% of the total and half offline...

Our distribution system badly needs upgrading, renewables are at the mercy of local conditions. Texas was all smug about CA's problem (Cruz tweeted: hope you hate a/c) but they have the same problem: CA couldn't import enough power because of a regional heat wave and TX can't because it isn't even connected outside the state. Here in SW MO there were about 4 hours of rolling blackouts yesterday during morning commute but they got everything balanced and discontinued them.

Hard to believe anything is going to happen for the good, ole tucker has already convinced his viewers that a) the cold disproves GW, b) it's AOCs fault c) windmills cause ice storms
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Re: Wind & Solar Are Wrong Path Pt. 2

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 17 Feb 2021, 15:03:32

It's not the wind turbines themselves that were a problem. It's the fact they were not winterized. Same problem as the fossil fueled plants. Winterized wind turbines run just fine in cold climates. So all Texas has to due to prevent this from happening again is winterize it's power plants.

why don’t wind turbines fail all the time in colder climates, such as Canada, Sweden or the American Midwest?

The answer, in short, is that turbines in colder places are typically equipped with de-icing and other tools, such as built-in heating. In Texas, where the weather is almost never this cold, they usually are not.

“Cold weather kits can keep [wind turbines] operating when temperatures plunge. This is the norm in colder states and in Europe,” said Samuel Brock, a spokesman for the American Clean Power Association. “Historically in Texas, given the warm climate, it hasn’t been necessary.”

In Canada, where wind turbines can experience icing up to 20% of the time in winter months, special “cold weather packages” are installed to provide heating to turbine components such as the gearbox, yaw and pitch motors and battery, according to the Canadian government. This can allow them to operate in temperatures down to minus 22 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 30 Celsius).

To prevent icing on rotor blades — which cause the blades to catch air less efficiently and to generate less power — heating and water-resistant coatings are used.

One Swedish company, Skellefteå Kraft, which has experimented with operating wind turbines in the Arctic, coats turbine blades with thin layers of carbon fiber which are then heated to prevent ice from forming. Another method used by the company is to circulate hot air inside the blades. Major wind turbine manufacturers, such as General Electric GE -1.1% or Denmark's Vestas, regularly equip their turbines with such cold weather gear.
Why Wind Turbines In Cold Climates Don’t Freeze: De-Icing And Carbon Fiber

But even that is over simplifying a complex problem. Texas's grid has other problems as well. The Texas power grid is effectively an island, cut off from the rest of the country. That means they were unable to import any appreciable amounts of power when their generators tripped offline. They also have little in the way of backup power or storage.

When asking how the Texas grid operator happened to fail so miserably at keeping people here warm and well-lit for the past couple of days, though, we get so much wrong. There’s a big picture, and a Texas picture, and both illuminate some of what is happening.

Then there’s the Texas picture. There are three things to remember: The power system that serves 95 percent of the state is intentionally isolated from the rest of the country; our competitive wholesale power market offers scant incentives for investment in backup power, and Texas generally does not have winter storms like this one.

The way the state’s wholesale power market works, utilities have very few incentives for investment in backup power. The state does not say to a generator, “Please build us some extra backup power plants, and we will charge that cost to our customers.” Instead, the market allows a generator to charge excessively high prices when available supply falls short — which, for an investor, could be a long shot. As a result, ERCOT’s backup power, called the spinning reserve, is lower than most other areas in the United States.

Now where shall we point our frigid fingers?

The highly centralized, isolated power grid has served Texas really well for many decades. It allowed us to accelerate renewables development and, notably, to avoid cascading blackouts — of the sort that plagued the Northeast in 1965, 1977 and 2003. But this week, it means we are unable to import large amounts of power from the gigantic eastern and western interconnections when we need it.

We don’t have a large enough backup system for when power demand shoots way up, or when our regular generators go offline, as they did this week. It is a problem that plagues ERCOT every year as the hottest part of the summer approaches. This is the fault of our wholesale market structure. Of course, additional reserve power may not have been sufficient to offset our losses over the past two days, but surely it would have helped. The cost of these extra power plants that will sit idle for most of the time wouldn’t be so bad if shared by everyone connected to ERCOT. Instead, based on how the Texas wholesale market works, backup plants charged an eye-popping $9,000/mwh rate this week (the price was $30/mwh just six days ago, a more typical rate).

From my chilly living room, I can reflect on our state’s unique approach to power systems, both the benefits and the shortfalls, and simply hope that we will learn quickly from this weather event. No doubt there will be accusations, investigations, pontifications and extrapolations in the weeks and months to come. Surely, we can plan for our weather extremes more effectively, winterize our system more thoroughly, back up our renewables more completely, and (dare I say it?) ask customers to pay more for resiliency. I imagine there are a few million Texans ready to chip in right now. And maybe we can even reconsider links east and west to facilitate sharing more power when it gets really, really hot or really, really cold. Texans shouldn’t have to start shopping for generators to prepare for the next hot summer or winter storm.
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Re: Wind & Solar Are Wrong Path Pt. 2

Unread postby Pops » Wed 17 Feb 2021, 16:58:50

Texas has bigger problems:
“The City and County, along with power providers or any other service owes you NOTHING!” he [mayor of Gutwater, TX] wrote on Facebook. “I’m sick and tired of people looking for a d--- handout! If you don’t have electricity you step up and come up with a game plan to keep your family warm and safe.”

Damn socialists expecting power providers to provide power, GAH!
Disasters in Republican-run places keep somehow proving how bad Democrats are at running things
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Re: Wind & Solar Are Wrong Path Pt. 2

Unread postby aadbrd » Wed 17 Feb 2021, 17:03:28

Texas blackouts fuel false claims about renewable energy

“It’s really natural gas and coal and nuclear that are providing the bulk of the electricity and that’s the bulk of the cause of the blackouts,” Jacobson told The Associated Press.
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Re: Wind & Solar Are Wrong Path Pt. 2

Unread postby jawagord » Wed 17 Feb 2021, 17:05:02

kublikhan wrote:Exactly my point. Houston last got single digit temperatures 31 years ago. But single digits or lower hit Alberta every year. There is much greater incentive and return on investment to winterize power plants in Alberta that there is in Houston.

Generators in chillier regions are typically compelled by federal or state rules to protect their plants from the elements, Texas plants can leave their pipes, valves and pressure gauges exposed. It’s cheaper that way. “The power plants in the Northeast, we put exterior closures around it. They wrap a building around the plant.” “Some of it too is just the cost of capital,” said Joseph Triepke, founder of the industry research firm Infill Thinking. “We’re all trying to run so lean, and this kind of weather is a once-every-several-years or more kind of thing. You’re just not going to invest in having that winterization infrastructure on hand.”
Texas Power Plants Shut by Cold Left Pipes Exposed to Elements


The problem is Texas (and the US government) have spent billions and billions of dollars on wind power and next to nothing of winterization of facilities that they have known for decades are vulnerable. Winterizing a wind turbine is not a simple thing, however, no amount of winterization helps with the primary problem, which is the wind is blowing much less in winter. Texas chose poorly, just as California did, just as other jurisdictions are doing.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ful ... 02/we.2427
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Re: Wind & Solar Are Wrong Path Pt. 2

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 17 Feb 2021, 18:37:48

jawagord wrote:no amount of winterization helps with the primary problem, which is the wind is blowing much less in winter. Texas chose poorly, just as California did, just as other jurisdictions are doing.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ful ... 02/we.2427
Incorrect. Wind blows harder in cold weather, not less:

How Does Cold Weather Affect Wind Speed?
When a cold front approaches a geographic region in the winter, the temperature gradient becomes very high. This happens because the moving mass of cold air is at a much lower temperature than the air being displaced. Winds tend to be stronger during winter, and this can be explained with the uneven heating of the Earth’s surface. Temperature gradients are higher during winter as a result, and this brings faster wind.
How Does Cold Weather Affect Wind Speed?

Weather in January
Strong winds blow in the northern plains during the winter, particularly at the time of a cold wave.
The climate of Texas

The primary problem is the lack of resiliency in the grid. No winterization, low spinning reserves, insufficient interconnects to the eastern and western grids, insufficient amounts of grid energy storage, etc.
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Re: Wind & Solar Are Wrong Path Pt. 2

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Wed 17 Feb 2021, 19:09:37

kublikhan wrote:https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ful ... 02/we.2427
Incorrect. Wind blows harder in cold weather, not less:[/quote]

That's not my experience living in Ontario, Canada. Yes, we get strong winds when a high pressure system is moving in but once we are underneath a high pressure system we frequently get an extended period of sunny, cold days that have very little wind. That's the situation we have right now and if I check the https://ieso.ca website I see wind is only accounting for 245MW of power - a fraction of the rated power of our wind generators. Our peak wind generation is in the shoulder seasons, fall and spring but alas those are the time periods in the year when the demand for electrical power is at its lowest.
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Re: Wind & Solar Are Wrong Path Pt. 2

Unread postby jawagord » Wed 17 Feb 2021, 19:19:49

kublikhan wrote:
jawagord wrote:no amount of winterization helps with the primary problem, which is the wind is blowing much less in winter. Texas chose poorly, just as California did, just as other jurisdictions are doing.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ful ... 02/we.2427
Incorrect. Wind blows harder in cold weather, not less:

How Does Cold Weather Affect Wind Speed?
When a cold front approaches a geographic region in the winter, the temperature gradient becomes very high. This happens because the moving mass of cold air is at a much lower temperature than the air being displaced. Winds tend to be stronger during winter, and this can be explained with the uneven heating of the Earth’s surface. Temperature gradients are higher during winter as a result, and this brings faster wind.
How Does Cold Weather Affect Wind Speed?

Weather in January
Strong winds blow in the northern plains during the winter, particularly at the time of a cold wave.
The climate of Texas

The primary problem is the lack of resiliency in the grid. No winterization, low spinning reserves, insufficient interconnects to the eastern and western grids, insufficient amounts of grid energy storage, etc.


I think it blows hardest in the spring but winter looks better than summer in Texas so I stand corrected.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45476
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Re: Wind & Solar Are Wrong Path Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 26 May 2021, 16:11:08

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Re: Wind & Solar Are Wrong Path

Unread postby Subjectivist » Thu 27 May 2021, 19:26:58

KaiserJeep wrote:Think of it as you would a bartered commodity that is never assigned any dollar price. You generate power on your roof, and use it in the house. It never goes through the power meter, it is never counted as income, it incurrs no tax liability. It reduces the amount of power you would otherwise withdraw from the grid, and pay for with money. If you have an EV, it allows you to drive on a road without paying any taxes for that, either.

You don't need a battery for this, as long as you are in a place (such as California) that mandates "net metering". The power grid is effectively a lossless free battery in such a net metering jurisdiction.

I've been doing this for years. California hit 60% solar energy this year, and exceeded 100% renewable energy, because last year was a wet one and lots of hydropower was online again. In prior years we were importing power from places like Texas, primarily wind. Now we have new renewables in-state and will soon be a net exporter of renewable energy. Most of California's new renewable capacity is solar, mostly residential and medium-scale (malls, parking lots, schools, misc. empty lots covered in solar panels, etc.).

So now California is going to mandate solar roofs on new construction residences. The next step would be net zero energy homes, and with EVs, all of a sudden, the suburban lifestyle is again practical, affordable, even ecologically sound.


You know this all sounds great for the desert southwest. Fortunately or otherwise most of us live live in places where natural clouds and rainfall really cut down on solar efficiency. Also I question whether lithium ion batteries are able to cycle through at least daily (if not several) cycles for a decade or more without wearing out. I know lead acid batteries certainly have there issues, but given the cost differential I just can't see the expensive option being effective in most states.
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