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Bitcoin & crypto?

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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 15 Apr 2021, 18:11:08

Ibon wrote:https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/bitcoin-price-target-going-to-moon-world-currency-million-kraken-2021-3-1030149146


Tell me why anyone would take seriously the analysis of the CEO of one of the major exchanges where you can buy crypto when he states that Bitcoin is going to reach $1 million value within the next 10 years?

Talk about someone with his own self interest and bias?

I am still in, I am not selling, I have added a bit more, but somewhere in the short to mid term I will be on the exit ramp.

This is one of my biggest concerns. How to get objective information. There are MANY obvious pumpers on Youtube, which I never would believe a single word they say about ANYTHING.

OTOH, there are outfits like ARK invest who are calmly saying they believe in the first mover network effect for BTC, and are talking about much higher prices for BTC in 5 years or 10 years or more. They might well be wrong, but they seem to at least believe their story.

Since unlike stocks, cryptocurrencies have no cash flow to temper what their value should be (short or long term), and there is clearly lots of hype involved, I find it VERY hard to know what to do.

For me, I'm not investing much of my net worth UNLESS there is a big crash to much lower levels (when people now are afraid and disinterested. At that point, I'd take a much harder look at a more substantial position.

FWIW. I'd be the first to admit I could easily be 100% wrong, as I ignored the whole thing until recently.
Last edited by Outcast_Searcher on Thu 15 Apr 2021, 18:22:11, edited 2 times in total.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 15 Apr 2021, 18:17:14

jedrider wrote:I still don't understand bitcoin. It seems like a stock to me, only they don't make anything other than to verify that you own some of it. Yep, tough decisions.

As a 40 year investor, I can confidently state one thing:

There is a BIG fundamental difference between cryptocurrencies and stocks. With stocks, one can expect some sort of cash flow to accrue to a successful company over time. One can make assumptions about that, the growth of that, and calculate a value accordingly. (One may be VERY wrong, but it's not just randomness).

With a cryptocurrency there is NO cash flow from holding them. So the WHOLE investment is a bet on future supply and demand, hoping more people want it, and thus will pay a higher price for it in the future.

I'm NOT saying crypto good or bad -- just that there is a fundamental difference between them and stocks, as stocks of profitable companies) can be expected to earn some sort of cash flow. And for good companies, a growing cash flow. (It might not be dividends, but it will tend to be increasing value and/or dividends.) Example: BRK, which grows like crazy over time, but never has paid a dividend.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 03 May 2021, 14:19:13

Damn when is this tulip ride going to crash? Still haven't sold any bitcoin or ethereum or any of the other 8 altcoins in my little crypto portfolio...
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Tue 04 May 2021, 10:47:17

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
With a cryptocurrency there is NO cash flow from holding them. So the WHOLE investment is a bet on future supply and demand, hoping more people want it, and thus will pay a higher price for it in the future.


It reminds me of the collectables market for things like stamps and coins with the major difference that many people collect these items out of genuine interest and not as an investment. We've had periods where stamps and coins have been popularized as investments but generally once prices stop increasing, investors lose interest and the market reverts back to being primarily for collectors.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 04 May 2021, 14:42:26

yellowcanoe wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
With a cryptocurrency there is NO cash flow from holding them. So the WHOLE investment is a bet on future supply and demand, hoping more people want it, and thus will pay a higher price for it in the future.


It reminds me of the collectables market for things like stamps and coins with the major difference that many people collect these items out of genuine interest and not as an investment. We've had periods where stamps and coins have been popularized as investments but generally once prices stop increasing, investors lose interest and the market reverts back to being primarily for collectors.

That's certainly a fair point. I'll admit that part of what attracted me to buying a variety of both bullion and numismatic (i.e. collectible due to rarity) gold and silver coins for a long term inflation hedge was that the things were just so damn BEAUTIFUL to me that they were like works of art. Even the gold bullion coins in great shape.

And re the loss of interest idea, I suspect that the next time cryptos might actually be a good deal will be after the next big crash, when enough time has lapsed with them languishing that they're hardly talked about on the net anymore.

And of course, the challenge, is having the guts to buy when interest is that low.

For example, I SHOULD have bought more gold and silver coins in 1999 when gold got down near $250, but I was so harrassed over Y2K issues at that time, I didn't even NOTICE. Then of course later, I could have bought it below $300, but never pulled the trigger. And of course, since about 2010 it's been over $1000 and has never looked back. Similar patterns for silver, but silver more volatile.

Ah well, it's kind of hard to look at and enjoy such coins locked up in safe deposit boxes.

Almost all of my art, car, etc. collecting is done by very nice books with lots of high quality beautiful color pictures and VERY little expense. And I think I honestly get almost as much enjoyment over time from those "collections" as I would from the real thing. (I know, I know. Frugal people are weird. What can I say?)

I do have some nice collectible books (being a bookworm, that makes sense), but I don't have serious money in them. And just like for art or stocks, etc. the books that go way up in price percentage wise in a decade or three are almost NEVER the ones I expect to. :oops: :lol:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby careinke » Tue 04 May 2021, 22:14:05

yellowcanoe wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
With a cryptocurrency there is NO cash flow from holding them. So the WHOLE investment is a bet on future supply and demand, hoping more people want it, and thus will pay a higher price for it in the future.


It reminds me of the collectables market for things like stamps and coins with the major difference that many people collect these items out of genuine interest and not as an investment. We've had periods where stamps and coins have been popularized as investments but generally once prices stop increasing, investors lose interest and the market reverts back to being primarily for collectors.


The Non Fungible Token (NFT) market is taking over that space. It took me a while to understand it, but there were a lot of use cases being developed. I personally don't see the point of collecting, (except conspiracy theories :)). So I have not invested in any...yet.

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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 04 May 2021, 23:02:54

careinke wrote:
yellowcanoe wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
With a cryptocurrency there is NO cash flow from holding them. So the WHOLE investment is a bet on future supply and demand, hoping more people want it, and thus will pay a higher price for it in the future.


It reminds me of the collectables market for things like stamps and coins with the major difference that many people collect these items out of genuine interest and not as an investment. We've had periods where stamps and coins have been popularized as investments but generally once prices stop increasing, investors lose interest and the market reverts back to being primarily for collectors.


The Non Fungible Token (NFT) market is taking over that space. It took me a while to understand it, but there were a lot of use cases being developed. I personally don't see the point of collecting, (except conspiracy theories :)). So I have not invested in any...yet.

Peace

I think the NFT market is where I just say, "I give up" as far as thinking it makes sense. Digital things like pictures on the internet can be copied an infinite number of times. Why people want to spend lots and lots of money to "own" such a thing doesn't make lots of sense to this old man.

I'd rather own a stack of pretty gold coins, for example.

But hey, if it isn't hurting people, whatever makes folks happy.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby careinke » Wed 05 May 2021, 10:52:37

Outcast_Searcher wrote:I think the NFT market is where I just say, "I give up" as far as thinking it makes sense. Digital things like pictures on the internet can be copied an infinite number of times. Why people want to spend lots and lots of money to "own" such a thing doesn't make lots of sense to this old man.

I'd rather own a stack of pretty gold coins, for example.

But hey, if it isn't hurting people, whatever makes folks happy.


OK Boomer. LOL JK
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 05 May 2021, 14:02:39

Outcast_Searcher wrote:But hey, if it isn't hurting people, whatever makes folks happy.


Some people think crypto currency is a catastrophe for the climate........like Bill Maher for example

bill-maher-just-made-bitcoin-decidedly-uncool

Comedian Bill Maher, the host of "Real Time" on HBO, did a hilarious send-up on Bitcoin and cryptos and the people who buy/own them. It was a clarion call for action.
"The power being used right now to guess numbers and win imaginary prices is the same as all the electricity used to light all of New York State!"
"Almost all the people who tout Bitcoin, the millennials, the Gen Zers, the Silicon Valley types, are money-hungry opportunists------- and they're not allowed to pretend they care about the environment."
Maher's clarion call could morph into a tipping point for environmental action against the cryptos.


Everything uses energy and hurts the climate, of course, but Maher is making a valid point that the huge amount of energy used to "mine" bitcoin doesn't actually produce anything useful.

Bitcoin has become a huge drain on global resources, and the effects of mining bitcoin on the climate are very significant.......and all for what?

Bitcoin is a giant electionic ponzi scheme. The whole point of buying bitcoin is the hope that somebody will buy the bitcoin at a higher price then you did.

I salute anyone who was smart enough to buy bitcoin at a low price............but lets face some facts here......

How is Bitcoin useful? Should we really be using all these resources to manufacture Bitcoin when its nothing but a digital accounting system?

Image
HUGE amounts of energy are being wasted on mining Bitcoin........do we really want to make climate change worse so we can have more bitcoin?

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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Wed 05 May 2021, 15:39:45

Plantagenet wrote:HUGE amounts of energy are being wasted on mining Bitcoin........do we really want to make climate change worse so we can have more bitcoin?[/i]

Cheers!


Bitcoin is also having an impact on the market for high end computer equipment. One of our faculty members placed an order for a high end workstation at the beginning of February. Three months later the vendor was still unable to deliver the machine as they had not been able to source the high end GPU card and power supply - both of these items are in high demand by Bitcoin miners.

Now we have the new Chia cryptocurrency. It is supposedly greener than Bitcoin because it doesn't require extreme amounts of computational power and energy. However, it requires large amounts of storage and is triggering a high demand for large capacity hard drives and solid state drives. https://www.techspot.com/news/89489-chi ... a-ssd.html
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 05 May 2021, 19:53:13

yellowcanoe wrote:Bitcoin is also having an impact on the market for high end computer equipment. One of our faculty members placed an order for a high end workstation at the beginning of February. Three months later the vendor was still unable to deliver the machine as they had not been able to source the high end GPU card and power supply - both of these items are in high demand by Bitcoin miners.

Now we have the new Chia cryptocurrency. It is supposedly greener than Bitcoin because it doesn't require extreme amounts of computational power and energy. However, it requires large amounts of storage and is triggering a high demand for large capacity hard drives and solid state drives. https://www.techspot.com/news/89489-chi ... a-ssd.html


Thanks for the info, yellow canoe.

I hadn't heard of the new "Chia" crypocurrency. Ohmigosh. But why does it require high end computer equipment?

They used to sell chia plants right at the local greenhouse. Its no big deal to grow it.

So why can't people just grown Chia cryptocurrency right in their gardens? Or on their heads?

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It is reported that Joe Biden is now growing chia cryptocurrency on his head to help pay for his trillions in new spending.

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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 05 May 2021, 21:27:11

careinke wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:I think the NFT market is where I just say, "I give up" as far as thinking it makes sense. Digital things like pictures on the internet can be copied an infinite number of times. Why people want to spend lots and lots of money to "own" such a thing doesn't make lots of sense to this old man.

I'd rather own a stack of pretty gold coins, for example.

But hey, if it isn't hurting people, whatever makes folks happy.


OK Boomer. LOL JK
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I deserved that for sure! :)
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby careinke » Thu 06 May 2021, 01:18:35

Plantagenet wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:But hey, if it isn't hurting people, whatever makes folks happy.


Some people think crypto currency is a catastrophe for the climate........like Bill Maher for example

bill-maher-just-made-bitcoin-decidedly-uncool

Comedian Bill Maher, the host of "Real Time" on HBO, did a hilarious send-up on Bitcoin and cryptos and the people who buy/own them. It was a clarion call for action.
"The power being used right now to guess numbers and win imaginary prices is the same as all the electricity used to light all of New York State!"
"Almost all the people who tout Bitcoin, the millennials, the Gen Zers, the Silicon Valley types, are money-hungry opportunists------- and they're not allowed to pretend they care about the environment."
Maher's clarion call could morph into a tipping point for environmental action against the cryptos.


Everything uses energy and hurts the climate, of course, but Maher is making a valid point that the huge amount of energy used to "mine" bitcoin doesn't actually produce anything useful.

Bitcoin has become a huge drain on global resources, and the effects of mining bitcoin on the climate are very significant.......and all for what?

Bitcoin is a giant electionic ponzi scheme. The whole point of buying bitcoin is the hope that somebody will buy the bitcoin at a higher price then you did.

I salute anyone who was smart enough to buy bitcoin at a low price............but lets face some facts here......

How is Bitcoin useful? Should we really be using all these resources to manufacture Bitcoin when its nothing but a digital accounting system?

Image
HUGE amounts of energy are being wasted on mining Bitcoin........do we really want to make climate change worse so we can have more bitcoin?

Cheers!


Never take financial advice from a comedian, especially a Boomer comedian who does not have a clue what he was talking about.

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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby mousepad » Thu 06 May 2021, 07:04:39

careinke wrote:
Never take financial advice from a comedian, especially a Boomer comedian who does not have a clue what he was talking about.

Peace


Are you saying that crypto doesn't need an obscene amount of electricity?
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby Ibon » Thu 06 May 2021, 08:43:10

Many of you may find my history with bitcoin amusing as this is related to the recent posts regarding electrical consumption. I am thinking Careinke will particularly enjoy this story.

My introduction to bitcoin happened back in 2016 when a Panamanian computer engineer came up to Mount Totumas and seriously talked to me about bitcoin and bitcoin mining. This guy was the partner in the company that provides our internet service. He knew that we were generating 8KW of hyrdro power 24/7 with our pelton wheel and he also knew we were too far away from the grid and too far away from our nearest neighbors to share our power. That we were dumping at that time around 80% of the energy we were producing. He was interested to go into a joint venture with us to set up bitcoin mining. He offered to up the internet signal to our resort in order to process the data.

I thought about it for awhile and in the end decided against the joint venture. Sure enough in these 5 years that have elapsed we have found uses for most of that unused power drying coffee at night and heating water and powering more cabins etc.

Anyway, had I joined him in that joint venture I would probably be sitting on several million dollars worth of bitcoin now!

No regrets though since growing wealth was something I voluntarily gave up in the first place back in 2008 to do what we are doing. I thought some of you would find this story interesting.

It was in 2019 that I started investing in bitcoin and last year in altcoins because of a nephew who is now worth over $10 million having started with $ 400,000.

The gain has been startling, and we are looking to fund a school up here for the children of the indigenous farm laborers with the recent bitcoin profits.

I still wonder where would we be had I taken up that offer of that dude to set up bitcoin mining here in the cloud forest back in 2016??

Such is the crazy mixed up world we live in!
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 07 May 2021, 11:35:11

mousepad wrote:
careinke wrote:
Never take financial advice from a comedian, especially a Boomer comedian who does not have a clue what he was talking about.

Peace


Are you saying that crypto doesn't need an obscene amount of electricity?

The market sure does seem to be favoring Etherium (generally considered number 2 re overall popularity, size of its transaction network, etc.) Which goes along with one of my major issues -- just because there are lots of BTC bulls, WHY should investors believe BTC is "the one" despite all its obvious defects?

And very slow speed, limited transaction capability, and very high energy usage are blatantly obvious ones.

BTC up a bit over 50% in 2021. Etherium up about 380% in 2021.

And as time goes on, the newer tech will almost certainly make newer cryptos significantly better re speed, efficiency, security, etc.

So the only real advantage I see with BTC is the first mover / network advantage. But with all its issues, can that really last?

I don't pretend to know for sure, I just think there is PLENTY of room for doubt at current prices, just like for TSLA, or tech stocks re the QQQ or NASDAQ Composite generally.

...

And no, I do NOT own Etherium or any other cryptocurrency (aside from a SMALL long term BTC stake), NFT, etc. So no, I am NOT talking my own book.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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