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Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby Whitefang » Fri 01 Jan 2021, 12:15:24

https://unofficialnetworks.com/2017/12/ ... 000-years/

Another 2030 point, goal on the agenda. Great reset at work.

Despite the fact that the area of the Arctic Ocean covered by sea ice during the winter maximum has declined only slightly in recent decades, the ice itself is profoundly different than it used to be. Very old ice—thick, strong, and more melt-resistant—has nearly vanished, and the amount of first-year ice—thin, salty, and unlikely to survive the summer—has skyrocketed.


This time series shows the Arctic sea ice extent in millions of square kilometers over the past roughly 1,500 years. Scientists use climate proxies like sediment/ice cores, tree rings, and fossilized shells of ocean creatures to extend the sea ice extent records back in time. These records show that while there have been several periods over the past 1,450 years when sea ice extents expanded and contracted, the decrease during the modern era is unrivaled. And just as importantly, it is beyond the range of natural variability, implying a human component to the drastic decrease observed in the records.


Sea ice in the Arctic Ocean has a history much longer than the last 2,000 years. It likely first formed about 47 million years ago. However, perennial—year round—sea ice at the North Pole first occurred 14-18 million years ago. A number of paleoclimate studies have shown that perennial sea ice has existed in the central Arctic for much of the last 350,000 years, with significant regional variability. This variability highlights the importance of expanding the number of paleoclimate reconstructions to better predict which regions are most susceptible to further sea ice loss.

Throughout geologic times, the amount of sea ice increased and decreased along with changes in temperature, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and the ice-age climate cycles. In fact, there were intermittent periods of ice-free conditions in the past 350,000 years up until the “modern” era of sea ice conditions began about 5,000 years ago.


These ice-free periods usually coincided with times when solar energy reaching the Arctic was at its largest due to small variations in the shape of Earth’s orbit and its axis of rotation. However, since the latter half of the Holocene epoch (about 5,000 years ago), some amount of year-round Arctic sea ice cover has been present. But as we move through the rest of the century, some climate model projections suggest that ice-free Arctic summers will return, possibly as early as 2030, but very likely before 2100.


All of our human homo sapiens sapiens existence the taiga, largest forest on Earth, deposited carbon into the arctic.
East Siberia were not covered by an ice sheet, rivers flowed North in summer.
With glacial maximum, ESAS frozen with permafrost, now since last interglacial submerged creating the shallow seas North of Russia. After millenia this lid is broken and the huge store of Carbon free to go into the atmosphere and above.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/202 ... tists-find

The scientists – who are part of a multi-year International Shelf Study Expedition – stressed their findings were preliminary. Methane seeps detected in the past were found to be historic, but the expedition believes these are new based on an earlier study showing movement of the subsea permafrost between the early 1980s and 2015. The scale of methane releases will not be confirmed until they return, analyse the data and have their studies published in a peer-reviewed journal.
But the discovery of potentially destabilised slope frozen methane raises concerns about the potential impact on the speed of global heating.

The Arctic is considered ground zero in the debate about the vulnerability of frozen methane deposits – which have been called the “sleeping giants of the carbon cycle” - in the ocean, and if releases were to exceed a tipping point it could increase the speed of global heating.
With the Arctic temperature now rising more than twice as fast as the global average, the question of when – or even whether – they will be released into the atmosphere has been a matter of considerable uncertainty in climate computer models.


Back at Cid and Shakova..........it is happening.
Link that to the panic and speed of evil plans to gear humanity into an AI slave population, sustainable.
Why go covid/great reset when the big tech 5G networks are to date only functional in big city China?
This does not make sense.

https://www.grida.no/resources/6617

The ESAS makes up a quarter of the Arctic shelf area (Shakhova et al. 2010a), with an average depth of only 58 metres (Jakobsson 2002) and significant riverine input.
Year: 2009
From collection: Frozen Heat - A Global Outlook on Methane Gas Hydrates


https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/ ... .2014.0451

Abstract
Sustained release of methane (CH4) to the atmosphere from thawing Arctic permafrost may be a positive and significant feedback to climate warming. Atmospheric venting of CH4 from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) was recently reported to be on par with flux from the Arctic tundra; however, the future scale of these releases remains unclear. Here, based on results of our latest observations, we show that CH4 emissions from this shelf are likely to be determined by the state of subsea permafrost degradation. We observed CH4 emissions from two previously understudied areas of the ESAS: the outer shelf, where subsea permafrost is predicted to be discontinuous or mostly degraded due to long submergence by seawater, and the near shore area, where deep/open taliks presumably form due to combined heating effects of seawater, river run-off, geothermal flux and pre-existing thermokarst. CH4 emissions from these areas emerge from largely thawed sediments via strong flare-like ebullition, producing fluxes that are orders of magnitude greater than fluxes observed in background areas underlain by largely frozen sediments. We suggest that progression of subsea permafrost thawing and decrease in ice extent could result in a significant increase in CH4 emissions from the ESAS.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby JuanP » Wed 06 Jan 2021, 14:07:17

"Scientists warn of imminent warming event at North Pole which threatens to strike UK with another ‘Beast from the East’"
https://www.rt.com/uk/511667-imminent-s ... orth-pole/

"...
A new study led by researchers at the Universities of Bristol, Exeter, and Bath examined 40 observed sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events which occurred over the last 60 years.

These events take place in the atmospheric band of air located between 10 and 50km (6.2 and 31 miles) above the earth's surface and can see the polar atmospheric temperatures rise by up to 50 degrees Celsius in just a few days which, in turn, can create extreme weather events elsewhere in the world.

According to their climate models and observations, one such sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event will take place Wednesday, January 5, as the polar vortex above the North Pole has split in two.
..."

Also, the latest Arctic Sea Ice report by NSIDC is out:
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

"Arctic sea ice extent averaged for December 2020 was the third lowest in the satellite record. The monthly average extent of 11.77 million square kilometers (4.54 million square miles) was 1.07 million square kilometers (413,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 December average."

There is still slush at the North Pole as of yesterday. Follow the link above for the full report, including "The Arctic sea ice year in review".
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby dissident » Thu 07 Jan 2021, 01:38:47

The only weather relevance of SSWs is that they can indicate certain emerging dynamical regimes in the troposphere. The large temperature variations in the stratosphere have negligible direct heating impact on the surface. In fact, the prime impact is a small pressure variation at the surface. The atmospheric density falls off exponentially with altitude so the energy density does too for any sort of reasonable temperature profile. So a 50C variation above above 30 km (where the largest SSW impact occurs) is roughly the equivalent of 0.5C variation at the surface. Such a thermal energy variation is not going to radiate much down to the surface and the transport is way too slow to "flush" it into the troposphere.

The temperature impact from SSWs is mostly the moving of the polar vortex off its near-pole average by many degrees latitude. This deformation is mostly reversible since it is induced by a resonant amplification of quasi-stationary Rossby waves number 1 and 2 (the largest planetary Rossby wave components). The troposphere-stratosphere circulation state primes this resonance. Typically the Rossby wave flux is upward and equatorward. But under the right conditions the flux is trapped in the polar cap inside the polar vortex and ends up greatly deforming it. Most of the action is horizontal even if coupled over a deep layer. The induced vertical circulation (or diabatic circulation) remains weak so the anomaly is not a vertical transport feature.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby JuanP » Wed 10 Mar 2021, 00:17:37

The latest NSIDC Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis report is out.
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

"Weather forecast services update their climatology with each new decade. So, the US National Weather Service will soon update the period from 1981 to 2010 to 1991 to 2020.

However, a shifting baseline makes tracking long-term climate change more complicated. As the baseline shifts, anomalies (amount above or below “normal”) and relative (percent per decade) trends will change. For climate, it is better to use a fixed period with a good data record so that as new data is collected, there is a consistent baseline for decadal or longer evaluation of change. Ideally, this baseline period would be relatively stable and without much of a trend. This is particularly a problem for Arctic sea ice where the last 10 years have had several extremely low extents. Including these recent years hardly represents “normal” in terms of the long-term climate. For this reason, we plan to maintain the 1981 to 2010 period as our standard climatology."

I am happy that the NSIDC will not be shifting its baseline, and sticking to the first three full decades of satellite data instead. I agree with this decision completely. Shifting the baseline would have made comparisons harder since the last decade experienced multiple anomalies.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 11 Mar 2021, 14:20:50

Yes, but we really MUST cancel Mr. Potato Head because that is REALLY important!!! 8O

It seems most of the population has their collective head in dark regions.

More and more I view humanity as meteorite about to hit Earth. We act a just a dumb blob pulled by gravity to our ultimate end.

Not very cherry much nowadays.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby dissident » Thu 11 Mar 2021, 16:06:31

Newfie wrote:Yes, but we really MUST cancel Mr. Potato Head because that is REALLY important!!! 8O

It seems most of the population has their collective head in dark regions.

More and more I view humanity as meteorite about to hit Earth. We act a just a dumb blob pulled by gravity to our ultimate end.

Not very cherry much nowadays.


I think is part of the emergent cultural pathology in the last 50 years. People were not this self-absorbed and voluntarily trapped in feel-good echo chambers in the past. High standards of living and the advent of social media has led to an explosion of circle-jerk delusion where all information is cherry picked to fit safe space beliefs. In the bad old days, people had to accept reality since that allowed them to survive. They also would not expect that their shrill demands for conformity on their pet values would be obeyed.

I am waiting for action from Biden on global warming. But I don't expect much. Clearly PC woke posturing is way more important.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Thu 11 Mar 2021, 17:48:54

dissident wrote:I am waiting for action from Biden on global warming. But I don't expect much. Clearly PC woke posturing is way more important.


If it is any consolation we have the same situation in Canada. The federal government talks about dealing with climate change while at the same time they are hyper focused on resuming economic growth and population growth as soon as possible.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby JuanP » Thu 11 Mar 2021, 18:47:07

yellowcanoe wrote:
dissident wrote:I am waiting for action from Biden on global warming. But I don't expect much. Clearly PC woke posturing is way more important.


If it is any consolation we have the same situation in Canada. The federal government talks about dealing with climate change while at the same time they are hyper focused on resuming economic growth and population growth as soon as possible.


I was talking with an Argentinian couple a few days ago who told me that the whole woke/cancel/LGBTQPIAA+ mania is much worse in Argentina, and has been going on for longer. They've been spending about half the year in Buenos Aires and their farm on the Wet Pampa and the other half in Miami, New York, and Vermont for around 15 years, so they should know. One of the good things about LGBTQPIAA+ people is that they produce less biological offspring!

And both Argentina and Uruguay are focused on population and economic growth, too. They are both considering paying people to have more children! Thank the gods that the younger generations are not listening and many of them don't want to get married or have kids.

Uruguay is beginning to experience some of the same problems with the Woke Millenials, too, though on a much smaller scale so far.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby dissident » Fri 12 Mar 2021, 13:55:04

The situation in Argentina supports the idea that wokesterism is a progressive disease of affluence. Argentina is one of the more richer countries in Latin America (only held back by years of political instability). Humanity is not going to see any Star Trek utopia. It will eat itself first. Global warming is a symptom of this genetic deficiency.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 13 Mar 2021, 13:01:48

I wonder if the ice can melt down to ten million square kilometers by June 10th? I think it usually reaches that level in June, but later in the month. The last several years it has looked, toward the top of the curve, that it might reach that level by the 10th, then something always happened to set the melt back on track to something more like normal. Something like a storm would happen, and things would equalize when they weren't equal. The curve would be running steep, but then melting would slow down because of a change in conditions.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby evilgenius » Thu 29 Apr 2021, 06:19:17

The curve is definitely starting a jog to the right that it you can see it sometimes does, if you look at the historical data. That might be enough to keep it from setting any new records in June.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby aadbrd » Thu 29 Apr 2021, 11:02:15

I don't follow the daily drip of news that much but the acceleration is accelerating apace.

https://apnews.com/article/mountains-cl ... 35128284ef

(BTW, I do have several members on ignore and I took a peek and it seems without fail that regardless of thread they are hurling off-topic rants. Would really like to see tighter moderation.)
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 29 Apr 2021, 16:42:41

Returning to the thread topic....Arctic Sea Ice is running at a record low so far this spring.

arctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

Here in north central Alaska the weather has been unusually warm and sunny and nice and its looking like the Arctic and sub-Arctic regions as a whole are on track for another warm summer.

I think there's a very good chance that this will be the year that breaks the all-time low for Arctic Sea Ice set in 2012...

cheers!

Image
PS---I'm now booked onto a Northwest Passage trip for 2022......I want to see Greenland again. I spent about a month on a scientific trip to Greenland some years ago and I want to see it again. I also want to visit the Canadian Arctic Islands and the small Inupiaq villages before global warming destroys the sea ice and destroys the Inupiaq culture and destroys the glorious Arctic our planet has support for the last 10,000 years.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby dissident » Fri 30 Apr 2021, 08:40:29

The persistent sea ice volume loss has to translate into thinner ice and thus shorter duration of the winter ice pack. The ice "free" period will in the short term start to grow. The persistence of sea ice cover is deceptive since it hides the sea ice volume loss.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby evilgenius » Sun 02 May 2021, 08:53:02

Oh, look, the curve is sidling off to the right. The graph of sea ice extent for at least the last week has lost some steepness. When you compare curves of prior years to this one, it looks like something similar happens enough of the time that we should look for it. I point it out only because I mentioned that I expected something like this to happen. Expecting a big difference in June, like I mentioned in an earlier post, may not be the best time to look for such a thing. It seems to occur too early in the melt to overcome phenomena like this. it may be a while before the cycle doesn't act like this. Who knows why it does? I could speculate, but I don't have enough data, not really. It seems to be long enough after sunrise that that isn't the cause. You know, some kind of initial dissipation that is quickly enough equalized, but must be reckoned with.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby jawagord » Tue 04 May 2021, 21:29:10

Plantagenet wrote:Returning to the thread topic....Arctic Sea Ice is running at a record low so far this spring.

[url=https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/arctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph[/url]

Here in north central Alaska the weather has been unusually warm and sunny and nice and its looking like the Arctic and sub-Arctic regions as a whole are on track for another warm summer.

I think there's a very good chance that this will be the year that breaks the all-time low for Arctic Sea Ice set in 2012...

cheers!

Image
PS---I'm now booked onto a Northwest Passage trip for 2022......I want to see Greenland again. I spent about a month on a scientific trip to Greenland some years ago and I want to see it again. I also want to visit the Canadian Arctic Islands and the small Inupiaq villages before global warming destroys the sea ice and destroys the Inupiaq culture and destroys the glorious Arctic our planet has support for the last 10,000 years.


No, it’s not at a record low. You are mistakenly comparing 2021 to the median band and interdecile range. Look at the graph one year at a time starting with 2021, by this date 2020 has less ice cover, 2019 has less ice cover, 2018 has less ice cover, 2017 has less ice cover, 2016 has less ice cover, 2015 has less ice cover, 2014 has more. 2021 is running at or above the average of the last 10 years. Want to restate your prediction?
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 05 May 2021, 12:53:24

jawagord wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:Returning to the thread topic....Arctic Sea Ice is running at a record low so far this spring.

No, it’s not at a record low. You are mistakenly comparing 2021 to the median band and interdecile range. Look at the graph one year at a time starting with 2021, by this date 2020 has less ice cover, 2019 has less ice cover, 2018 has less ice cover, 2017 has less ice cover, 2016 has less ice cover, 2015 has less ice cover, 2014 has more. 2021 is running at or above the average of the last 10 years. Want to restate your prediction?


No....my prediction is still valid.

The all-time record low for Arctic sea ice occurred in 2012.

At the current time, i.e. on May 5, 2021, Arctic Sea ice is LOWER than it was at the same date during the all time record low year of 2012.

That means we are on track to reach a new low this year.

Will it happen?

That depends on weather and sea ice conditions through the rest of the summer.

As you noted in your post, there have been several other years since 2012 where the extent of Arctic sea ice has been even lower thea it is this year or it was in 2012 at this time.

But because the amount of multi-year ice DECREASES each year in the Arctic Ocean, each year the likelihood of setting a new record increases. Each year it becomes EASIER to attain a new record low.

AND because the planet is warming year after year, each year is slightly more likely than the last to produce warm conditions at very high latitudes conducive to extreme ice melt in the Arctic Ocean.

So my point stands..... we are running on a pace to set a new record low this year. I'm NOT PREDICTING it will happen. I AM SAYING there is a very good chance it will happen.

Thank you for comment.......you are quite right that there have been other years with sea ice as low or lower then we are seeing right now......but think it through. EVERY YEAR the chance of hiring a new record low in sea ice increases. Global temperatures were at record high levels in 2020 and multi-year ice at a record low......that means this year we have a very good chance of seeing a new record low in sea ice extent.

Image
Could 2021 set a new record low in Arctic Sea ice? We are on track so far......

Cheers!
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