Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 12 Feb 2021, 12:38:20

Pops wrote:
Baduila wrote:- The US government by printing 1900 Billion Dollars of fresh money.
- Saudi Arabia by cutting one million barrels per day of oil production.

But wait, this isn't about economics remember?
It is about the immutable laws of thermodynamics!!!


IMMUTABLE!!! THE CONTINENTAL CRUST OF THE WORLD IS COOLING BECAUSE OF OIL PRODUCTION!!!! RUN FOR THE HILLS!
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 6409
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 12 Feb 2021, 13:17:58

I have no doubt the "system" will completely fail at WTI 63. Thats the previous high at 12/23/19.

One has to take into account the lag with regard of the price at the pumps.
Outcast_Searcher is a fraud.
StarvingLion
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2612
Joined: Sat 03 Aug 2013, 18:59:17

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 12 Feb 2021, 13:31:17

StarvingLion wrote:I have no doubt the "system" will completely fail at WTI 63. Thats the previous high at 12/23/19.


You yourself have claimed you have no credibility as of 1/1/2021.

We believe you.
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 6409
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Baduila » Thu 11 Mar 2021, 17:20:28

Image

The oil price has been switched from WTI to Brent, because of the high volatibility of WTI. The dotted lines both moved a little bit.
Image Take care of the second law.
Baduila
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 134
Joined: Fri 26 Jun 2015, 12:44:17

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 11 Mar 2021, 18:25:51

Baduila wrote:Image
Changing the rules and moving the goal posts doesn't make you more credible. :roll:

The oil price has been switched from WTI to Brent, because of the high volatibility of WTI. The dotted lines both moved a little bit.

In the real world, each day crude sets new highs makes the claims of ETP for 2020-2022 look sillier. Not that your ilk would ever acknowledge it. Per CNBC, WTI at $65.91, up $1.47, as I type, BTW.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 9337
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 21:26:42
Location: Central KY

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 11 Mar 2021, 22:29:53

Baduila wrote:The oil price has been switched from WTI to Brent, because of the high volatibility of WTI. The dotted lines both moved a little bit.


When you change a price metric and your thermodynamically based model delivers a different answer, you know this indicates that the answer isn't based on thermodynamics, right? Try using the oil price of Maya or Shengli, Sokoi perhaps, and see how that changes the answer. :lol:
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 6409
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Baduila » Wed 07 Apr 2021, 05:01:56

Image

Peak oil is now two and a half year behind us. The oil price slowly goes down and down, as well as the oil production.
Image Take care of the second law.
Baduila
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 134
Joined: Fri 26 Jun 2015, 12:44:17

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 07 Apr 2021, 09:03:07

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Baduila wrote:Image
Changing the rules and moving the goal posts doesn't make you more credible. :roll:

The oil price has been switched from WTI to Brent, because of the high volatibility of WTI. The dotted lines both moved a little bit.

In the real world, each day crude sets new highs makes the claims of ETP for 2020-2022 look sillier. Not that your ilk would ever acknowledge it. Per CNBC, WTI at $65.91, up $1.47, as I type, BTW.


Hey Charlatan, what is WTI at today?

$60, as I type.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA....your ilk.
Outcast_Searcher is a fraud.
StarvingLion
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2612
Joined: Sat 03 Aug 2013, 18:59:17

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby aadbrd » Wed 07 Apr 2021, 09:04:41

Baduila wrote:The oil price slowly goes down and down


This thread doesn't make sense on many levels.

https://fortune.com/2021/03/24/rising-g ... er-gallon/

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/11/busi ... shale.html
User avatar
aadbrd
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 387
Joined: Sat 26 Dec 2020, 16:09:06

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 07 Apr 2021, 10:59:17

Baduila wrote:Peak oil is now two and a half year behind us.


And peak oil was 15 years behind us in 1994. Call us back when anyone besides the thermodynamically ignorant notice.
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 6409
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 07 Apr 2021, 11:01:40

aadbrd wrote:
Baduila wrote:The oil price slowly goes down and down


This thread doesn't make sense on many levels.


Indeed. Welcome to the fantasyland of ETP. A world in which the price of oil was supposed to hit $0/bbl a year or two back, and when it didn't, the folks who missed Thermodynamics 101 in college just changed the date, proving they don't know any more than the peak oilers who have been pulling the same stunt since Colin Campbell declared global peak in 1990.
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 6409
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Baduila » Thu 08 Apr 2021, 04:03:34

@aadbrd

Gasoline is not the same as oil. The gasoline price includes refining, transport, distribution, tax etc. The probability is high, that oil gets cheap, but gasoline gets too expensive for your income. See Lebanon or India.

Do you know this ?
Image

I refer to facts, not to ideas of half-educated economists.
Image Take care of the second law.
Baduila
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 134
Joined: Fri 26 Jun 2015, 12:44:17

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 08 Apr 2021, 09:08:22

Baduila wrote:@aadbrd

Gasoline is not the same as oil.


And producing oil doesn't cool the planet.

Baduila wrote:I refer to facts, not to ideas of half-educated economists.


You refer to nonsense, and began with an idea so badly formed it's author has attempted to scrub it from the internet in order not to be a global laughingstock. He failed. Repeating discredited nonsense doesn't make it a fact, or a good idea, or anything other than discredited nonsense.

Oh yeah...and what might the R squared be on those fits?

Image
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 6409
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 08 Apr 2021, 21:53:23

aadbrd wrote:
Baduila wrote:The oil price slowly goes down and down


This thread doesn't make sense on many levels.

https://fortune.com/2021/03/24/rising-g ... er-gallon/

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/11/busi ... shale.html

Facts, basic math, and ETP adherents. They don't go well at ALL together. Yet of course, the ETP adherents refuse to give it up despite having been proven TOTALLY wrong -- just like conspiracy theorists of many types.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 9337
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 21:26:42
Location: Central KY

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby aadbrd » Fri 09 Apr 2021, 14:31:04

Baduila wrote:Gasoline is not the same as oil. The gasoline price includes refining, transport, distribution, tax etc. The probability is high, that oil gets cheap, but gasoline gets too expensive for your income. See Lebanon or India.


The raw feedstock of gasoline will be worthless but the finished product will become too expensive for my income thanks to refining, transport, distribution, tax, etc...? With all due respect, unlikely.
User avatar
aadbrd
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 387
Joined: Sat 26 Dec 2020, 16:09:06

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby OutcastPhilosopher » Fri 09 Apr 2021, 15:21:26

aadbrd wrote:
Baduila wrote:Gasoline is not the same as oil. The gasoline price includes refining, transport, distribution, tax etc. The probability is high, that oil gets cheap, but gasoline gets too expensive for your income. See Lebanon or India.


The raw feedstock of gasoline will be worthless but the finished product will become too expensive for my income thanks to refining, transport, distribution, tax, etc...? With all due respect, unlikely.



Try to buy something when your currency is worthless.....see Lebanon
Last edited by OutcastPhilosopher on Fri 09 Apr 2021, 16:50:51, edited 1 time in total.
The hand that gives is above the hand that takes
OutcastPhilosopher
permanently banned
 
Posts: 280
Joined: Fri 06 Nov 2020, 17:39:05

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 09 Apr 2021, 16:27:53

OutcastPhilosopher wrote:
aadbrd wrote:
Baduila wrote:Gasoline is not the same as oil. The gasoline price includes refining, transport, distribution, tax etc. The probability is high, that oil gets cheap, but gasoline gets too expensive for your income. See Lebanon or India.


The raw feedstock of gasoline will be worthless but the finished product will become too expensive for my income thanks to refining, transport, distribution, tax, etc...? With all due respect, unlikely.



Try to by something when your currency is worthless.....see Lebanon

The Dollar is worth JUST AS MUCH as it was 30_ years ago, re the DXY, vs. your empty, fact free, pathetic blabbering.

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-DXY/

(Click on the "All" link to get the 30+ year perspective, vs. short term cherry picking and whining.)

And just as shorty (who I think might be you in anther BS incarnation) was wrong re people not being able to afford gasoline, and thus it falling to roughly $2 by 12/2021 re the failed ETP theory, you persist in pursuing absolute nonsense, re absence of credible facts. Like WTI hanging around $60 (ie THIRTY TIMES the claimed value re ETP), while folks wait and see what economic growth and job growth looks like (forecast to be strong) vs. real world demand for oil (which the middle classs can CLEARLY afford, despite all the whining from your ilk). And this in the face of a serious GLOBAL PENDEMIC, as well. Imagine that.

You know, continuing to bray absolutely fact free STUPIDITY, in the face of the fact that the internet exists and facts can be checked, isn't helping your credibility for people who can read and care just a bit about facts.

But keep braying. Maybe someday, you'll get lucky and manage to be right for a year or three, doubtful as that appears in the face of economic reality.

A high GDP growth rate in 2021 and 2022 in the US and Western Europe appears likely, re the news. Not exactly the backdrop for oil being unafforable at $2 a barrel, now is it? :roll:

So what now? More name calling, at a level to challenge the typical 5 year old? :lol:

Well, while you're trying that, in the real world, both the S&P 500 and the Dow are hitting new highs again. And even the NASDAQ composite is nearing new highs.

And those interest rates you were recently claiming implied insta-doom? Well, the Dollar was up today, and the 10 year note rate (the source of so much of your doom claiming recently) was only up a little, well off recent highs. When real world, US inflation becomes a significant problem, much less a serious one, be sure and get back to us with all your "infinite wisdom" on the topic (re bad calls). 8)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 9337
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 21:26:42
Location: Central KY

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby OutcastPhilosopher » Fri 09 Apr 2021, 18:49:11

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
OutcastPhilosopher wrote:
aadbrd wrote:
Baduila wrote:Gasoline is not the same as oil. The gasoline price includes refining, transport, distribution, tax etc. The probability is high, that oil gets cheap, but gasoline gets too expensive for your income. See Lebanon or India.


The raw feedstock of gasoline will be worthless but the finished product will become too expensive for my income thanks to refining, transport, distribution, tax, etc...? With all due respect, unlikely.



Try to by something when your currency is worthless.....see Lebanon

The Dollar is worth JUST AS MUCH as it was 30_ years ago, re the DXY, vs. your empty, fact free, pathetic blabbering.

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-DXY/

(Click on the "All" link to get the 30+ year perspective, vs. short term cherry picking and whining.)

And just as shorty (who I think might be you in anther BS incarnation) was wrong re people not being able to afford gasoline, and thus it falling to roughly $2 by 12/2021 re the failed ETP theory, you persist in pursuing absolute nonsense, re absence of credible facts. Like WTI hanging around $60 (ie THIRTY TIMES the claimed value re ETP), while folks wait and see what economic growth and job growth looks like (forecast to be strong) vs. real world demand for oil (which the middle classs can CLEARLY afford, despite all the whining from your ilk). And this in the face of a serious GLOBAL PENDEMIC, as well. Imagine that.

You know, continuing to bray absolutely fact free STUPIDITY, in the face of the fact that the internet exists and facts can be checked, isn't helping your credibility for people who can read and care just a bit about facts.

But keep braying. Maybe someday, you'll get lucky and manage to be right for a year or three, doubtful as that appears in the face of economic reality.

A high GDP growth rate in 2021 and 2022 in the US and Western Europe appears likely, re the news. Not exactly the backdrop for oil being unafforable at $2 a barrel, now is it? :roll:

So what now? More name calling, at a level to challenge the typical 5 year old? :lol:

Well, while you're trying that, in the real world, both the S&P 500 and the Dow are hitting new highs again. And even the NASDAQ composite is nearing new highs.

And those interest rates you were recently claiming implied insta-doom? Well, the Dollar was up today, and the 10 year note rate (the source of so much of your doom claiming recently) was only up a little, well off recent highs. When real world, US inflation becomes a significant problem, much less a serious one, be sure and get back to us with all your "infinite wisdom" on the topic (re bad calls). 8)


The dollar is not worth the same as it was thirty years ago because you are conflating a true "dollar" aka 1oz of silver as per the US Constitution with Federal Reserve Notes which are IOUs. From 2020 until now more than 25% of all US Federal Reserve Notes that have ever been created were printed. That is pure monetary inflation.

Economic Growth is a misnomer as it is calculated using controlled metrics such as GDP, employment, etc. Real GDP in the US has been negative since 2001. Real unemployment is roughly 25-26% currently. You can view the link below for sourcing on this.

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_da ... uct-charts

The rest of your blather is noted but clearly you are living in a fairytale delusion that is not even of your creation but of what you have been conditioned to believe. I sense the cognitive dissonance in your rant. Are you getting nervous that your boomer retirement is going to go up in smoke here in a few years?
The hand that gives is above the hand that takes
OutcastPhilosopher
permanently banned
 
Posts: 280
Joined: Fri 06 Nov 2020, 17:39:05

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby aadbrd » Sat 10 Apr 2021, 10:05:48

OutcastPhilosopher wrote:The dollar is not worth the same...


Is this ultimately a theory about oil depletion or about fiat currency?

I sense grasping at straws.
User avatar
aadbrd
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 387
Joined: Sat 26 Dec 2020, 16:09:06

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 10 Apr 2021, 10:11:31

aadbrd wrote:
OutcastPhilosopher wrote:The dollar is not worth the same...


Is this ultimately a theory about oil depletion or about fiat currency?

I sense grasping at straws.


ETP is an attempt to use thermodynamics in a way to create a doom scenario, one that looks all scientific-ee. Similar to the EROEI angle that came out after it turned out that peak oilers couldn't predict oil volumes. The idea being to generate the same result (doom) but find another mechanism that doesn't keep getting discredited by reality in real time. Grasping at straws is a good way of thinking about ETP, EROEI and whatever nonsense Outcast Philosopher/StarvingPuutyTat/ShortOnOil says.
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 6409
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26

PreviousNext

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Tuike and 21 guests