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Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 3

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 3

Unread postby dcoyne78 » Wed 17 Feb 2021, 18:06:23

mustang19 wrote:It would be interesting if dcoyne would be so bold as to predict short term oil production from prices. Because then we see how useless prices are.


The fact that there is a lag between output and changes in output along with many other factors affecting output means there is little correlation between output and prices.

Just because there is not a one to one correspondence does not mean that price has no effect on output.

In order to see the effect we would need to hold all other variables constant, controlled experiments in a market economy are not possible, everything changes at once and untangling the data is very difficult, econometrics attempts to do this, but other variables (for a macroeconomic analysis) are more important in determining World output levels such as real GDP, than the level of World oil prices.

For individual oil producers, prices are very important, higher oil prices lead to higher profits, more oil well completions and higher output.
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Re: Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 17 Feb 2021, 18:31:18

dcoyne78 wrote:I am comparing a historical estimate given in the AEO 2021, that is a part of history, with historical assessments of the USGS.


Yes. And I've been hinting that there are reasons why they are different.

dcoyne78 wrote:Does that seem reasonable? That is 10 Gb more than the USGS F5 estimate, I don't buy it.


Two different estimates, of two different things, isn't about "buying" either one. It is only about which one fits better into your scheme of thinking about how to project into the future.

dcoyne78 wrote:Can you remind of us of question one and question two and how the questions are answered using publicly available data?


Question #1 is "why are peak oil claims always wrong on the low side" and Question #2 is "how can you build a system that stops making that mistake".

You've already figured out Question #1 correctly, and I certainly have never claimed that you or anyone else lacking a full data suite can answer question #2. The Texas BEG folks come closest at answering Question #2, at the level of particular formations, and mostly in their state. They don't operate with just publicly available data any more than I do.

dcoyne78 wrote:Note that I do not have all the answers, but it is not clear that you do either.


Good. If it isn't clear to you, then most others are probably clueless. Regardless, look me up if you are ever in Denver. I'll take you out to lunch, and convince you otherwise.

dcoyne78 wrote:It seems that DOE researchers adjust resource estimates so that supply matches demand at the price scenarios they have devised. That seems an exercise in wishful thinking. :)


Sort of like peak oilers? :lol:

dcoyne78 wrote:I will stick with USGS estimates, I doubt they will come up with mean estimates for other tight oil plays (besides Bakken/Three Forks, Eagle Ford/Austin Chalk and Permian basin) of 33 Gb. My estimate is about 16 Gb for the mean TRR of those other tight oil plays, with ERR of 13.8 Gb.


You are free to stick with whatever estimates you wish. Let me offer up just one more piece of information. That graphic I sent you. It has an uncertainty range on it, higher uncertainty to the left, lesser to the right. Pick the expertise involved of what type, and how it changes, from left to right, and tell me, as development progresses, what matters more? An estimate based on which expertise, delivers a more fundamentally grounded answer? At which stage of development? And how do you pick where that is, with existing information? I was not kidding when I told you that the concepts on that graphic are themselves part of the answer to Question #2. With or without the full data suite. How can anyone be expected to answer Question #2 without the transitioning through specialties that graphic clearly shows?

You, representing the right hand side of that graphic, don't know what a better estimate might look like coming from the specialties involved on the left. Those experts on the left, don't have a clue how to think about the right hand side. And you, being data constrained, haven't been able to advance any farther than just X wells to drill, at Y size, deducted from someone else's estimate, scheduled through time using a random function that has nothing to do with oil and gas development. It didn't work when WebHubble used it to predict peak oil more than a decade ago but hey! Let's use it again anyway! You've heard the axiom before, when all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail? You can do better! I have faith! :)
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Re: Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 3

Unread postby mustang19 » Wed 17 Feb 2021, 22:12:27

dcoyne78 wrote:
mustang19 wrote:It would be interesting if dcoyne would be so bold as to predict short term oil production from prices. Because then we see how useless prices are.


The fact that there is a lag between output and changes in output along with many other factors affecting output means there is little correlation between output and prices.

Just because there is not a one to one correspondence does not mean that price has no effect on output.

In order to see the effect we would need to hold all other variables constant, controlled experiments in a market economy are not possible, everything changes at once and untangling the data is very difficult, econometrics attempts to do this, but other variables (for a macroeconomic analysis) are more important in determining World output levels such as real GDP, than the level of World oil prices.

For individual oil producers, prices are very important, higher oil prices lead to higher profits, more oil well completions and higher output.


Correct prices dont correlate with anything and dont matter.

https://i.ibb.co/8cTdbgB/Screenshot-202 ... Sheets.jpg

The actual determinant is money supply.

It's not difficult, nothing is hard to entangle or complicated, your opinion is simply wrong and the things I said are right.
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Re: Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 3

Unread postby mustang19 » Thu 18 Feb 2021, 03:08:46

Dcoyne you realize that stagnant productivity is actually worsening result? Production has to grow at a decent rate just to combat the water cut due to well aging. Even if water cut is constant for new wells, as you mentioned, it increases for existing wells very predictably.

Also, there just arent any oil discoveries and opec trying to grow production doesnt seem sustainable. OPEC claims to have about 5% spare capacity and its production is falling at about that rate yearly.
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Re: Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 18 Feb 2021, 11:46:25

mustang19 wrote:Correct prices dont correlate with anything and dont matter.


You've already been informed differently.

Image
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Re: Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 18 Feb 2021, 11:51:36

mustang19 wrote:OPEC claims to have about 5% spare capacity and its production is falling at about that rate yearly.


You don't know anything about oil in gas here in the States, what makes you think you know anything about OPEC? It is unlikely you know what the acronym stands for without googling.
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Re: Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 3

Unread postby mustang19 » Thu 18 Feb 2021, 19:52:18

AdamB wrote:
mustang19 wrote:OPEC claims to have about 5% spare capacity and its production is falling at about that rate yearly.


You don't know anything about oil in gas here in the States, what makes you think you know anything about OPEC? It is unlikely you know what the acronym stands for without googling.


All opec does is add volatility to the oil market by throttling up and down. Their current increase is just their normal behavior of cutting and growing every year.
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Re: Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 3

Unread postby mustang19 » Thu 18 Feb 2021, 21:02:11

Ironically dcoynes prediction doesnt even matter because renewables. Texas is 30% wind and that was enough to kill people. Most states want 50% electricity by 2030 and will be texas in 2025 or earlier. So mass mortality of libs.
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Re: Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 18 Feb 2021, 21:45:36

mustang19 wrote:
AdamB wrote:You don't know anything about oil in gas here in the States, what makes you think you know anything about OPEC?

All opec does is add volatility to the oil market by throttling up and down.


...and opec is in your mind...who?
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Re: Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 18 Feb 2021, 21:47:59

mustang19 wrote:Ironically dcoynes prediction doesnt even matter because renewables.


..and eroi = 1/0 has...what...to do with renewables?
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Re: Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 3

Unread postby mustang19 » Fri 19 Feb 2021, 21:36:30

Based on that extrapolation I made the slowdown in rigs will be apparent around april, and then it will be super obvious production is falling.
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Re: Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 19 Feb 2021, 22:38:13

mustang19 wrote:Based on that extrapolation I made the slowdown in rigs will be apparent around april, and then it will be super obvious production is falling.


What slowdown in rigs? Looks like they have been going up for months now. Let me guess....you are just being the normal Short and making stuff up again?

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Re: Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 3

Unread postby mustang19 » Sun 21 Feb 2021, 01:18:54

AdamB wrote:
mustang19 wrote:Based on that extrapolation I made the slowdown in rigs will be apparent around april, and then it will be super obvious production is falling.


What slowdown in rigs? Looks like they have been going up for months now. Let me guess....you are just being the normal Short and making stuff up again?

Image


They just fell
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Re: Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 21 Feb 2021, 10:50:40

mustang19 wrote:
AdamB wrote:
mustang19 wrote:Based on that extrapolation I made the slowdown in rigs will be apparent around april, and then it will be super obvious production is falling.


What slowdown in rigs? Looks like they have been going up for months now. Let me guess....you are just being the normal Short and making stuff up again?

Image


They just fell


Just point out on that trend where the recent slowdown in rigs is happening.
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Re: Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 3

Unread postby mustang19 » Mon 22 Feb 2021, 00:26:50

Spraberry and bone spring are carrying the growth. Wolfcamp is down.
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Re: Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 22 Feb 2021, 00:39:56

mustang19 wrote:Spraberry and bone spring are carrying the growth. Wolfcamp is down.


As usual, you can't answer the simplest question related to your claim. In your original claim, you didn't say "this one or that one", you said "based on that extrapolation I made the slowdown in rigs..." See how you didn't mention "these rigs or those rigs" anywhere? Well, no one else did either.

So I asked for you to back up your normal bullshit claim, and it turns out you can't. Why? Because rigs aren't slowing down. Now run along and write a macro for someone and pretend it is computer programming. Oh yeah, and your "extrapolation"? is that sort of like the r-squared values you put on nonsense graphs to pretend that oil really would be $0/bbl this year?
Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.

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Re: Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 3

Unread postby mustang19 » Mon 22 Feb 2021, 02:17:31

AdamB wrote:
mustang19 wrote:Spraberry and bone spring are carrying the growth. Wolfcamp is down.


As usual, you can't answer the simplest question related to your claim. In your original claim, you didn't say "this one or that one", you said "based on that extrapolation I made the slowdown in rigs..." See how you didn't mention "these rigs or those rigs" anywhere? Well, no one else did either.

So I asked for you to back up your normal bullshit claim, and it turns out you can't. Why? Because rigs aren't slowing down. Now run along and write a macro for someone and pretend it is computer programming. Oh yeah, and your "extrapolation"? is that sort of like the r-squared values you put on nonsense graphs to pretend that oil really would be $0/bbl this year?


The tight fields will peak because they grew fast. Nm wolfcamp will die fastest. Spraberry last.
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Re: Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 22 Feb 2021, 10:29:02

mustang19 wrote:The tight fields will peak because they grew fast. Nm wolfcamp will die fastest. Spraberry last.


<yawn>

And eroi = 1/0, according to you, Mr. "OMG!!! I didn't even know rigs were increasing when I said they were decreasing because I'm a 'tard, so I better change the subject!".
Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.

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Re: Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 3

Unread postby mustang19 » Mon 22 Feb 2021, 11:07:39

AdamB wrote:
mustang19 wrote:The tight fields will peak because they grew fast. Nm wolfcamp will die fastest. Spraberry last.


<yawn>

And eroi = 1/0, according to you, Mr. "OMG!!! I didn't even know rigs were increasing when I said they were decreasing because I'm a 'tard, so I better change the subject!".


Society will collapse rapidly, oil is approaching dcoynes high case.
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Re: Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 22 Feb 2021, 11:16:08

mustang19 wrote:Society will collapse rapidly, oil is approaching dcoynes high case.


Yes Short, we know you and Lion and Armie are Happy McDoomsters from way back, and are perpetually unhappy that your doom fantasy league scenarios don't work out.
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