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The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby cabacew185 » Mon 15 Feb 2021, 09:37:08

kublikhan wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:This chart reflects why I focus on modern renewables like wind, solar PV, and geothermal. Declines in investment and the Law of Diminishing returns are at play, which is reflected in the slowing of the growth rates in wind and solar from previous years.
Actually investments increased in 2019. And it's not about dollars invested, It's about capacity installed. Investments only increased 1% in 2019 but annual increase in wind and solar increased 13%. This is because wind and solar costs decreased.

* Global spending in green energy up 1% to $282 billion
Global money flowing into the industry totaled $282.2 billion last year, up 1% from 2018. Despite the modest rise in investment, falling costs of wind and solar power ensured a healthy increase in capacity to 180 gigawatts, an annual increase of 13%.

Wind and solar energy are now the cheapest forms of power in two-thirds of the world. In its New Energy Outlook 2019, the research firm said the globe will be 50% powered by renewable energy by 2037. The firm has credited “sweeping technological advances and more efficient manufacturing” as the reason for wind and solar’s increasingly important role in the global energy mix.

Cheapest power sources: 2014 to now
Ten years ago, when wind and solar were just 1% of the US’ energy mix, it would have seemed unrealistic to envision renewables replacing fossil fuels. Yet, this April marked the first time that renewable energy supplied more power to the US grid than coal, showing that solar and wind have certainly stepped up to the plate.

Low build costs spark renewables shift
Electricity generation has traditionally been the world’s biggest source of greenhouse gas emissions, but since 2016, US power plants have given off less carbon dioxide than the nation’s transportation sector, Bloomberg reported. According to the news wire, wind and solar farms are a major reason for the turnaround, with cheaper parts making these projects more economical to build than coal and gas plants across two-thirds of the world. “Solar photovoltaic modules, wind turbines and lithium-ion batteries are set to continue on aggressive cost reduction curves, of 28%, 14% and 18% respectively, for every doubling in global installed capacit. By 2030, the energy generated or stored and dispatched by these three technologies will undercut electricity generated by existing coal and gas plants almost everywhere.”

Global growth trend
However, BloombergNEF has forecast that by 2050 two-thirds of the world will be run on zero-carbon energy, with wind and solar supplying 48% of global electricity by that time. Specifically, solar is expected to rise from its current 2% of world electricity generation to 22% in 2050, while wind is anticipated to climb from today’s 5% to 26%. In addition, the report found batteries, peakers and dynamic demand will help wind and solar reach more than 80% penetration in some markets.

Global investment
According to the report, US$13.3 trillion (A$19.45 trillion) will be invested in new power generation assets over the next 32 years to 2050, with 77% (US$10.24 trillion) expected to go to renewables. The majority of the investments will be in wind and solar, with US$843 billion estimated to go toward batteries. This investment total will fund 15,145GW of new power plants between 2019 and 2050, of which 80% is zero carbon.
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MonteQuest wrote:It will use lithium-ion battery storage. Euan Mearns says that “Renewable energy storage is an impossible dream and will remain so until there is a major technology breakthrough.”
Switching over to 100% wind, solar, and storage in the short to medium term is impractical. However the US does have a shortage of storage capacity relative to the rest of the world. This is not even talking about renewable needs for storage, just the grid in general. So I think storage needs to increase. Personally I am not a big fan of lithium-ion for grid storage. I think pumped hydro, CES, flow batteries, etc are all better options. There was even talk of converting the Hoover Dam into a giant battery for grid storage. But we need to add something. However even with that having backup/peaker fossil fuels plants is inevitable. It is far cheaper to have moderate amounts of storage and a good amount of fossil fuel backup.

ohh yes)
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