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Miocene Anthropocene Future

Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Subjectivist » Wed 27 Jan 2021, 21:36:21

Peak_Yeast wrote:Concerning the end of this interglacial:

Without having sufficient time to investigate the claims - this video claims that we are not going to see any interglacial soon - simply because of the combination of milankovich and other cycles that appears to have caused the many previous glacial/interglacial periods.

(Is an Ice Age Coming? | Space Time | PBS Digital Studios)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztninkgZ0ws

Seems convincing to me.. What do you people say?


This is pretty much settled science. We have known since at least the mid 1980's that the climate had dipped into a "little ice age" which we came out of between 1750-1850. We even have tidal records from ports like London and Marseilles that show from around 1350-1800 sea levels were falling on around a 1 mm per year rate as mountain glaciers world wide were growing strongly. Then around 1850 the freeze down reversed and sea level stopped going down. Now sea level is rising at about three times the rate it was falling during the Little Ice Age but it will still take us a few decades to get back where sea level was in 1300, a fact most people are completely oblivious to.
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 28 Jan 2021, 19:09:52

Subjectivist wrote:
Peak_Yeast wrote:Concerning the end of this interglacial:

Without having sufficient time to investigate the claims - this video claims that we are not going to see any interglacial soon - simply because of the combination of milankovich and other cycles that appears to have caused the many previous glacial/interglacial periods.

(Is an Ice Age Coming? | Space Time | PBS Digital Studios)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztninkgZ0ws

Seems convincing to me.. What do you people say?


This is pretty much settled science. We have known since at least the mid 1980's that the climate had dipped into a "little ice age" which we came out of between 1750-1850. We even have tidal records from ports like London and Marseilles that show from around 1350-1800 sea levels were falling on around a 1 mm per year rate as mountain glaciers world wide were growing strongly. Then around 1850 the freeze down reversed and sea level stopped going down. Now sea level is rising at about three times the rate it was falling during the Little Ice Age but it will still take us a few decades to get back where sea level was in 1300, a fact most people are completely oblivious to.


At least a decade if not 15 years ago Dr. David Archer of Chicago University put models up online where you can play with the variables about all aspects of the Milankovitch cycles interacting with human induced CO2 levels. Even in the worst case in terms of initiation of a glaciation cycle current CO2 levels are so high they prevent an ice sheet from forming above 65 degrees north, which is the trigger event. With no trigger there is no major glaciation for the next 100,000 years.

Archer Online Models

Archers Page at U Chicago with many embedded links
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby dissident » Fri 29 Jan 2021, 17:57:14

Thank you for the links.

As for the "Little Ice Age". It was not a global climate anomaly. It was essentially confined to the northern hemisphere and with a high localization in Europe. It appears to have been an aerosol induced regional climate effect with some dynamics induced non-locality. The earlier stages are likely heavily influenced by a series of large volcanic eruptions that released a lot of sulfate. But throughout this cooling period there was substantial deforestation even if the Black Death removed a large percentage of the European population. Deforestation works in two ways:

1) Aerosol driven effects: Black carbon released by wood combustion and associated cloud albedo effects.

2) Increased albedo from cleared land. This is not trivial since Europe was essentially cleared of forests and covered with grasslands.

The sulfate pollution cooling following the 1950-60 emission peak during the 1970s was not as pronounced since CO2 levels were higher and there was a regulatory response to reduce sulfate pollution.
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