Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Bitcoin & crypto?

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby careinke » Wed 13 Jan 2021, 01:37:02

Outcast_Searcher wrote:FWIW, thought I'd share an alternative for Bitcoin speculating for old fashioned folks not keen on hacking, repository risks, etc. And who want something something simpler to use.
....


Appreciate your info. always more than one way to skin a cat. :-D
Cliff (Start a rEVOLution, grow a garden)
User avatar
careinke
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4074
Joined: Mon 01 Jan 2007, 04:00:00
Location: Pacific Northwest

Re: Your 2021 (and Beyond Predictions)

Unread postby JuanP » Wed 13 Jan 2021, 09:52:49

Maybe you should create a "Bitcoin and crypto currencies" thread?

Also, Asia Times has a section called "The Chain" dedicated to Bitcoin, crypto currencies, digital currencies, and digital assets that some of you may find interesting. I don't know if it's any good because I have never invested nor will I ever invest in any digital assets myself, so the only articles I've read there are the ones on China's digital Yuan, because of my interest in China, which are informative enough.

https://asiatimes.com
"Only Americans can hurt America." Dwight D. Eisenhower
Free Meng Wanzhou!
JuanP
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1232
Joined: Sat 16 Aug 2014, 15:06:32

Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 14 Jan 2021, 07:48:18

JuanP wrote:Maybe you should create a "Bitcoin and crypto currencies" thread?

Also, Asia Times has a section called "The Chain" dedicated to Bitcoin, crypto currencies, digital currencies, and digital assets that some of you may find interesting. I don't know if it's any good because I have never invested nor will I ever invest in any digital assets myself, so the only articles I've read there are the ones on China's digital Yuan, because of my interest in China, which are informative enough.

https://asiatimes.com

Thanks for the pointer Juan.

I find the slant on various stories from the front page articles of today's paper rather interesting.

It's fascinating to view the same news stories as written on different continents. It looks like generally, Asia, Western Europe, and the US MSM will often have very different perspectives on the same underlying facts.

Note -- I'm NOT talking conspiracy here -- as long as they get the underlying facts right in the reporting, that's fine.

I'd say it's more like how any political story will tend to be reported by left wing vs. right wing US papers and TV stations. Or stories on subjects likely to be a political hot button, like (sadly) science stories from AGW to genetics.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 9201
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 21:26:42

Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby Ibon » Thu 14 Jan 2021, 07:58:49

In an earlier post I mentioned the long term risk of Bitcoin because of the convergence of all fiat currencies going digital and how governments will regulate bitcoin into oblivion in order to support their own digital versions.

https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-race-f ... cies?amp=1

2021 may be the last year to ride this Bitcoin train higher before governments startthe process of delegitimizing it through legal and nefarious means.

Be forewarned!!!
Patiently awaiting the pathogens. Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
blog: http://blog.mounttotumas.com/
website: http://www.mounttotumas.com
User avatar
Ibon
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 9357
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Location: Volcan, Panama

Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 14 Jan 2021, 08:14:09

careinke wrote:For newbies I recommend Dollar Cost Averaging. It works incredibly well with a high volatility asset like crypto.

DCAing is excellent advice for anyone planning to invest (or speculate) in any highly volatile asset over a long period (let's say over a decade) of time. It even works quite well for the stock market, which is TAME compared to cryptos, thus far.

I think newbies (and maybe everyone who isn't an expert and wants to invest) should take a look at ARK's main ideas on Bitcoin.

I'll confess that I missed the whole idea re the importance of network effects on virtual currencies, and thus why (the theory goes) Bitcoin is so popular thus far.

I know network effects are key for real things, like say television networks or TV or radio or internet networks. (Not much point having a network device if no one else is on the network). But I sort of thought of crypto as being virtual and assumed it didn't MATTER much re a network effect, as once supported well, no reason virtually dozens if not hundreds could be traded and used by millions of customers, once they had "reasonable" name recognition.

The ARK folks deep into crypto say no, and that the network effects are huge so Bitcoin has and will have a huge advantage. Including Bitcoin forks (duplicating the network, and calling it something else, e.g. Bitcoin X, which has been done already).

I thought this piece was pretty good, especially the chart in the middle showing the timeline for BTC and a rough projection re things like Bitcoin Issuance and Market Cap vs. the Supply cap. Sorry, no page numbers, but it's under the heading "Bitcoin's Asymptomatic Money Supply Targeting".

https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst ... oin-myths/

I'm NOT saying any of this is correct, especially the forecast. I'm saying it's interesting and COULD be important to cryptocurrencies, and that (to my tiny brain), it's not obvious how important virtual networks might be -- even when unlimited alternatives exist (or rather potentially exist), at least until it's been pointed out.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 9201
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 21:26:42

Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 14 Jan 2021, 10:13:05

Ibon wrote:In an earlier post I mentioned the long term risk of Bitcoin because of the convergence of all fiat currencies going digital and how governments will regulate bitcoin into oblivion in order to support their own digital versions.

https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-race-f ... cies?amp=1

2021 may be the last year to ride this Bitcoin train higher before governments startthe process of delegitimizing it through legal and nefarious means.

Be forewarned!!!

That kind of thing has been one of my worries since Bitcoin started hitting the news.

OTOH, the experts at places like ARK are convinced governments won't stop Bitcoin -- and as long as they can follow the ledger and collect taxes on trading it, they have no reason to.

Re issuing competing government cryptos, they claim the government can't stop Bitcoin due to the already well established network effects (where Bitcoin has a HUGE advantage, and Etherium has a meaningful advantage, but is well behind Bitcoin).

Not claiming to know what will happen, just that it's not like experts haven't considered this risk.

Re legal shenanigans/regulation, it's a risk I don't like, just like I don't like that when TSHTF with the dollar / economy, the government could make it illegal to hold gold again (as they did during the great depression). Trying to predict what governments might do in stressful times is hazardous.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 9201
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 21:26:42

Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby careinke » Thu 14 Jan 2021, 20:56:27

Whoever moved this thread, thanks!

Outcast_Searcher wrote:I think newbies (and maybe everyone who isn't an expert and wants to invest) should take a look at ARK's main ideas on Bitcoin....

...I thought this piece was pretty good, especially the chart in the middle showing the timeline for BTC and a rough projection re things like Bitcoin Issuance and Market Cap vs. the Supply cap. Sorry, no page numbers, but it's under the heading "Bitcoin's Asymptomatic Money Supply Targeting".

https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst ... oin-myths/

I'm NOT saying any of this is correct, especially the forecast. I'm saying it's interesting and COULD be important to cryptocurrencies, and that (to my tiny brain), it's not obvious how important virtual networks might be -- even when unlimited alternatives exist (or rather potentially exist), at least until it's been pointed out.

Thanks for the Link!! It was a great article. It answers the Tulip Question, and the Greater Fool question, and the waste of electricity question much better than I am able.

My favorite part of the article was in the beginning, with the Impossible Trinity Graphic, pure genius.

Peace
Cliff (Start a rEVOLution, grow a garden)
User avatar
careinke
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4074
Joined: Mon 01 Jan 2007, 04:00:00
Location: Pacific Northwest

Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 23 Jan 2021, 11:17:27

I think it is true that as long as the US Government does not accept anything other than the dollar to pay taxes, the dollar will not cave in to bitcoin. It's not impossible that could change. Except, then payment would be made in something that fluctuated against the standard currency. That's a problem for a central aggregator, like the government.

They would have incentive to get out of anything they held that wasn't dollars as soon as possible, not stockpile them. But stockpiling can be a good hedge against some other country having some kind of leverage over another country. Nobody likes a currency run. I suppose that the US could, because of dollar hegemony, adopt an attitude of arrogance toward the ramifications? They could probably get away with a lot more politically motivated monetary policy than most other countries. There would still be limits, they might even be more strict.

Issues like this, I think, do have roots in arguments such as the role of the individual in a modern society. Various people's answers seem to coincide with how deeply they trust 'society', or not. It seems to ask for too much vision for everybody to think like the collective can somehow achieve the process of transportation from one reality to the other all in one piece. Along with the usual suspects, like a certain hairshirt suffering complex, there are those who stand to profit from us not all getting there together.

There is bound to be arbitrage at work. The more complex the work, the more opportunities for it to take place. It might be right to regulate it, but I don't know about trying to eliminate arbitrage altogether?

People might start to push for a one-world currency, or something like that, as they seek to solve the greater issues, such as the role of the individual in society. If they do, though, they are likely to forget they will still need arbitrage. The arguments may force people into an intentional blindness. Once that happens, imbalances just keep getting more and more out of hand, and if the new currency isn't structured to inflate and deflate according to conditions the reality of every day life could suffer.

I don't think it is necessarily wise to think that if a cryptocurrency fashioned after bitcoin, or even bitcoin, suddenly needed 'tuning' to adopt to more properly mirroring human behavior the way that fiat money does, that the sort of people who promote bitcoin, where they fall on the scale of trust in society, can be trusted to fix anything. A currency needs to mirror human activity, by expanding and contracting according to the level of it.

The US dollar seems to still handle regional fluctuations in value between different economic regions pretty well. Something about how it handles the underlying drivers of bitcoin does make one pause, however. Those drivers likely span both the domestic and foreign markets that the dollar operates in. It may be an innate distrust of American Politics that drives this, or something that is somehow connected to how monetary policy can sometimes be made to act according to one interest or another. We live in an information age now, society puzzling over this sort of thing is only going to get worse. The very definitions of such things used to belong only to the select. They seem to belong to everyone now.
Last edited by evilgenius on Sat 23 Jan 2021, 11:40:05, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
evilgenius
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3169
Joined: Tue 06 Dec 2005, 04:00:00
Location: Stopped at the border.

Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 23 Jan 2021, 11:38:39

evilgenius wrote:I think it is true that as long as the US Government does not accept anything other than the dollar to pay taxes, the dollar will not cave in to bitcoin. It's not impossible that could change. Except, then payment would be made in something that fluctuated against the standard currency. That's a problem for a central aggregator, like the government.

Your whole post is thoughtful and interesting.

Until smartphones and confidence in the technology re hacking, possible back doors, etc, computer outages are convincingly resolved, I don't see crypto replacing the dollar. Also, until smartphones or whatever equivalent are COMPLETELY ubiquitous, even among the very poor, I don't see that. To make that switch without a significant amount of folks ready to deal with it, it would be just way too chaotic, IMO. Now, with planning and effort, the prep could be done in say 5 to 10 years no problem, if the motivation is there, but it certainly couldn't be done quickly.

According to ARK, a feature of the Bitcoin network growing and becoming relatively ubiquitous (which would go along with it becoming very valuable over time re their overall premise for it), one of the things that would happen is that as confidence is gained, it would become MUCH less volatile over time. (I have no idea if that's right, but IF it becomes much more widely used and accepted for actual purchases vs. trading against dollars, that premise makes sense to me).

If the dollar were done away with and Bitcoin (or fedcoin or whatever) became the US official currency, used for all legal transactions including taxes, then I'm not so sure it would be much more volatile than a normal currency as long as the technology worked with rock solid consistency, no balance hacking went on, etc. At that point, what would it be volatile AGAINST? Everything? And if so, why?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 9201
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 21:26:42

Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 23 Jan 2021, 11:49:15

Thought I'd update on my use of GBTC to gradually acquire a little Bitcoin on dips, waiting for a big drop to get in meaningfully.

The good news is it's super easy to trade during stock market hours for free with a no-commission broker like Ally Invest, etc. You can buy it one or many shares at a time, with each share costing a little over a thousandth of the cost of BTC, and representing a little under a thousandth of a BTC. (The price premium is real).

The bad news is that BTC, Ether, etc. trades ALL THE TIME. The market is only open for GBTC during standard US market hours or 32.5 hours out of a 144 hour a week.

So trying to snipe a little of the volatile BTC on steep drops doesn't work when they happen at night or the weekend, which thus far has been mostly the case.

I should have thought of that, but I never trade stocks except during normal market hours, so that angle just hadn't occurred to me when looking for a simple, fairly safe solution to get started. :oops:

...

I also looked a little at Paypal's Bitcoin market, but generally don't like the fees and the restrictions and the exposure to various potential risks there. It would be better to just go the Bitcoin wallet and attendant risks and inconvenience as go that route, IMO.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 9201
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 21:26:42

Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 23 Jan 2021, 12:23:04

You know, there is, also, this thing we do as people: we strive for process. That's why railroad tracks are the same width today as Roman cart wheels used to be, or so I've heard. No other animal gets distracted by process. They all see right through it, while we remain entranced. So, crows and chimpanzees alike, will pick the thing out of the proper order, fixating upon it alone. Human children fixate upon the process, and don't so much see the part when it appears in such contrast to the whole.

I don't know if we all accept the same ideas concerning what defines the various processes we collectively engage in. I think we need to handle the world according to them. And, I think they function best when our collective ideas about them are more aligned. When we are so fundamentally at odds, I don't know. I hope the country reabsorbs, and accepts to the degree necessary, its wayward people on the right. It really needs the right's role in restraining it when it would otherwise authorize all options at once. I mean to imply something about regulation that any cryptocurrency could take into account when it was being built, vs. not to consider governmental involvement at all.

Along those lines, the arguments of the right never required so much reliance upon majority rule. That's a new development. But so many things are going away, like newspapers, that the right may be having more trouble than ever being heard. They spend more money each year on campaign adds. The adds, if you watch them as a spectator, have gotten ever more negative. They have definitely gone down a rabbit hole, in terms of chasing the popular appeal to get their message across.

You could actually say that the demand for the money they spend now, probably over several months, used to be satisfied by a single episode of William F. Buckley educating the American Public about the bits and pieces of conservative thought, and how they fit together. Everything has gotten more 'fifteen minutes' since then. But we still require process.

In this mass appeal world, the willingness to cross boundaries has gone some place that Buckley would have taken umbrage at. That hasn't had any sort of feedback style effect upon the message, but you have to wonder whether it will. Conservatives thrive upon seeing themselves as possessing a moral authority. They can fail whatever tests individually, but not as a movement. So, pushing all of these taboo lines in order to make for a broader appeal makes less sense. Because, as is only too apparent, we need them to tell us when to say when. But they are arguing over their own soul as well. God, help us.

I guess they don't do Buckley because, in a way, they all see themselves as Buckley. That's what an expansion of the suffrage should do. They are all the center of their own universes, as it should be. The trouble lies in relating to others.
Last edited by evilgenius on Sat 23 Jan 2021, 13:06:36, edited 5 times in total.
User avatar
evilgenius
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3169
Joined: Tue 06 Dec 2005, 04:00:00
Location: Stopped at the border.

Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 23 Jan 2021, 12:26:16

If you want to participate in Ethereum crypto without buying the coin then ETHE is a good fund that you can purchase through any of the major brokerages like Ameritrade etc.

https://www.google.com/search?q=ethe&rl ... e&ie=UTF-8

My nephew who got me started with Bitcoin is manic and wont listen to reason to sell his initial position and take a small profit.

I remember when I was where he is and nobody could reason with me either!
Patiently awaiting the pathogens. Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
blog: http://blog.mounttotumas.com/
website: http://www.mounttotumas.com
User avatar
Ibon
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 9357
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Location: Volcan, Panama

Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 23 Jan 2021, 15:20:17

Ibon wrote:If you want to participate in Ethereum crypto without buying the coin then ETHE is a good fund that you can purchase through any of the major brokerages like Ameritrade etc.

https://www.google.com/search?q=ethe&rl ... e&ie=UTF-8

My nephew who got me started with Bitcoin is manic and wont listen to reason to sell his initial position and take a small profit.

I remember when I was where he is and nobody could reason with me either!

Ah. Good pointer and thanks. It hadn't dawned on me that a similar fund to GBTC might be available for Etherium. All I'd noticed was that Etherium futures were going to be available from CME starting in Feb. But for people like me who want to buy very SMALL amounts unless cryptos literally crash hard again, 50 coins a contract is MASSIVELY too big to want to trade.

(And yes, I'm a chicken. Being a chicken has kept me solvent and solidly profitable over time, overall, for four decades, so I'll NOT be apologizing for that approach.)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 9201
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 21:26:42

Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 27 Jan 2021, 10:09:31

Silver is the buy, not Bitcoin or crypo’s. Silver is already running a 300 million oz deficit and the entire world is going green. Industrial production is about to explode. Personal investment is through the roof too with physical and ETF’s.
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6556
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 27 Jan 2021, 19:46:45

Armageddon wrote:Silver is the buy, not Bitcoin or crypo’s. Silver is already running a 300 million oz deficit and the entire world is going green. Industrial production is about to explode. Personal investment is through the roof too with physical and ETF’s.

Try having a credible right call ratio of more than, say, 1% over time of being right instead of dead wrong, and THEN get back to us and tell us what the "right" thing to invest in is. :lol:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 9201
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 21:26:42

Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 27 Jan 2021, 21:23:05

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Silver is the buy, not Bitcoin or crypo’s. Silver is already running a 300 million oz deficit and the entire world is going green. Industrial production is about to explode. Personal investment is through the roof too with physical and ETF’s.

Try having a credible right call ratio of more than, say, 1% over time of being right instead of dead wrong, and THEN get back to us and tell us what the "right" thing to invest in is. :lol:



Zero percent interest rates - check
Rise in precious metals - check
QE to infinity - check
Trillion dollar deficits - check
Expanding FED balance sheet - check

Yeah, I’m never right
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6556
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 29 Jan 2021, 18:27:31

Get your physical silver while you can. Major physical silver shortages coming. 300 million OZ deficit currently. Personal investment through the roof. Global green agenda starting which requires massive silver. This wont end well. $100 silver on the horizon
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6556
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby careinke » Mon 01 Feb 2021, 05:12:21

Armageddon wrote:Get your physical silver while you can. Major physical silver shortages coming. 300 million OZ deficit currently. Personal investment through the roof. Global green agenda starting which requires massive silver. This wont end well. $100 silver on the horizon


Tomorrow should be fun. WallStreetBets is scheduled to start buying physical silver. Evidently there is more "Paper Silver" than actually exists. :)
Cliff (Start a rEVOLution, grow a garden)
User avatar
careinke
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4074
Joined: Mon 01 Jan 2007, 04:00:00
Location: Pacific Northwest

Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 01 Feb 2021, 09:51:09

careinke wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Get your physical silver while you can. Major physical silver shortages coming. 300 million OZ deficit currently. Personal investment through the roof. Global green agenda starting which requires massive silver. This wont end well. $100 silver on the horizon


Tomorrow should be fun. WallStreetBets is scheduled to start buying physical silver. Evidently there is more "Paper Silver" than actually exists. :)



By about 100-1. Paper silver is a scam. There will be a run on the paper contracts and they will realize this. I only buy physical and hold it myself.
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6556
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 01 Feb 2021, 16:49:11

Remember the mainstream said gold and silver were just rocks?

Key distinction.

These rocks have preserved value for thousands of years vs. numerous fiat currency failures.
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6556
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

PreviousNext

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 26 guests

cron