[AdamB]

You may find this of some interest.

https://gcaptain.com/how-exporting-the- ... s-forever/

How dare you point out that not only did the US peak again, but it's production increase, the fastest the country has ever had in its history (2012-2013 I believe), began influencing the entire geopolitical aspects of the global oil market, is not allowed under the trolling rules in this thread!! It violates the "can only discuss make-believe Mustang ideas" concept!

[mustang19]

It didn't change them forever. It changed for abiut... five years.

[AdamB]

It didn't change them forever. It changed for abiut... five years.

Certanly abiut lunger dan dat.

[dcoyne78]

The following post may be of interest

https://peakoilbarrel.com/permian-basin ... aggerated/



My guess is that a range of 50 to 70 Gb for Permian economically recoverable resources (ERR) has roughly a 50% confidence interval with about a 25% probability the ERR will be lower than 50 Gb and a 25% probability it will be higher than 70 Gb. The 90% confidence interval is 25 Gb to 100 Gb for Permian basin ERR.

[Pops]

Thanks Dennis, I appreciate you posting here.
I also appreciate your considering oil price in your calculations.
Have you done a model with prices higher that $100? Or without a late fall in price?
I wonder what might happen in the case of a near term onset of decline in "conventional" extraction that drives the price above $100
Thanks

[mustang19]

The following post may be of interest

https://peakoilbarrel.com/permian-basin ... aggerated/



My guess is that a range of 50 to 70 Gb for Permian economically recoverable resources (ERR) has roughly a 50% confidence interval with about a 25% probability the ERR will be lower than 50 Gb and a 25% probability it will be higher than 70 Gb. The 90% confidence interval is 25 Gb to 100 Gb for Permian basin ERR.

Which makes no sense and oil production never just flatlines like that.

[AdamB]

Which makes no sense and oil production never just flatlines like that.

He who welshes is wrong as usual. But you wouldn't know where it has happened, or why, and don't care anyway.

[mustang19]

Which makes no sense and oil production never just flatlines like that.

He who welshes is wrong as usual. But you wouldn't know where it has happened, or why, and don't care anyway.

The closest equivalent would be saudi Arabia but that's multiple fields. North ghawar peaked in 2000, south ghawar primary peaked in 2005, secondary recovery in 2015, fracking 2018 and now ghawar is cratering.

Production has never been flat, the times it appears so is actually huge offsetting moves in different fields.

[AdamB]

He who welshes is wrong as usual. But you wouldn't know where it has happened, or why, and don't care anyway.

The closest equivalent would be saudi Arabia but that's multiple fields.

Considering he who welshes knows nothing about fields, or fields in Saudi Arabia, you don't have a clue as to what the closest equivalent might be.

[mustang19]

He who welshes is wrong as usual. But you wouldn't know where it has happened, or why, and don't care anyway.

The closest equivalent would be saudi Arabia but that's multiple fields.

Considering he who welshes knows nothing about fields, or fields in Saudi Arabia, you don't have a clue as to what the closest equivalent might be.

You're just a bot to create traffic.

[AdamB]

He who welshes is wrong as usual. But you wouldn't know where it has happened, or why, and don't care anyway.

The closest equivalent would be saudi Arabia but that's multiple fields.

Considering he who welshes knows nothing about fields, or fields in Saudi Arabia, you don't have a clue as to what the closest equivalent might be.

You're just a bot to create traffic.

And you sir are a welsher and fraud. And an absolute lousy troll. A person who wants to pretend something is true when it isn't. A person who, when told where their work can be improved, doubles down on their ignorance. A person who when refutable sources are referenced, can't be bothered to learn from them if they dare to contradict his ignorance on the topic.

You want an honest conversation? Then stop making stuff up, including about posters who have done their best to inform you.

[mustang19]

[wrong as usual. But you wouldn't know where it has happened, or why, and don't care anyway.

The closest equivalent would be saudi Arabia but that's multiple fields.

Considering he who welshes knows nothing about fields, or fields in Saudi Arabia, you don't have a clue as to what the closest equivalent might be.

You're just a bot to create traffic.

And you sir are a welsher and fraud. And an absolute lousy troll. A person who wants to pretend something is true when it isn't. A person who, when told where their work can be improved, doubles down on their ignorance. A person who when refutable sources are referenced, can't be bothered to learn from them if they dare to contradict his ignorance on the topic.

You want an honest conversation? Then stop making stuff up, including about posters who have done their best to inform you.[/quote]

Who is this shorty person, did he ever use USGS data?

[AdamB]

Who is this shorty person, did he ever use USGS data?

Apparently this shorty person is someone who got an engineering degree, couldn't cut it in that profession, and decided to design web pages instead. Later in his web design career, he pretended to come up with a thermodynamic idea for oil and gas production that was contradicted by fluid mechanics, reservoir dynamics, basic facts of hydrology and physics that real engineers in the oil field have understood for the better part of a century now.

Using this lack of knowledge about basic geology and any of the sciences involved in petroleum engineering, Shorty then predicted the end of the world by confusing correlation with causation in order to draw a line through some cherry picked data arriving at the conclusion that the price of oil would reach $0/bbl a few years back. Along the way he bet with some folks on this idea being right. Upon his entire method being laughed out of even a cursory review by real live expert types, Shorty tucked tail and ran, erasing his website and evidence of his towering testament to ignorance in the physical sciences as he fled the field of battle. Welshing on every bet he lost along the way.

He might have misrepresented USGS data like you have. Can't say I was paying much attention to his claims after 60 seconds of analysis revealed he was a huckster who didn't know the difference between correlation and causation.

[mustang19]

Who is this shorty person, did he ever use USGS data?

Apparently this shorty person is someone who got an engineering degree, couldn't cut it in that profession, and decided to design web pages instead. Later in his web design career, he pretended to come up with a thermodynamic idea for oil and gas production that was contradicted by fluid mechanics, reservoir dynamics, basic facts of hydrology and physics that real engineers in the oil field have understood for the better part of a century now.

Using this lack of knowledge about basic geology and any of the sciences involved in petroleum engineering, Shorty then predicted the end of the world by confusing correlation with causation in order to draw a line through some cherry picked data arriving at the conclusion that the price of oil would reach $0/bbl a few years back. Along the way he bet with some folks on this idea being right. Upon his entire method being laughed out of even a cursory review by real live expert types, Shorty tucked tail and ran, erasing his website and evidence of his towering testament to ignorance in the physical sciences as he fled the field of battle. Welshing on every bet he lost along the way.

He might have misrepresented USGS data like you have. Can't say I was paying much attention to his claims after 60 seconds of analysis revealed he was a huckster who didn't know the difference between correlation and causation.

Hill group was right, I dont see the problem. Where did hill group say $0?

[AdamB]

Hill group was right, I dont see the problem. Where did hill group say $0?

A few years ago. Hard to say exactly when, after they were laughed out of a technical review they began purging the internet of all their work, the entire website disappeared. Sort of like what folks do to their social media when in a moment of honesty they post something honest, wildly ignorant, and so stupid that the entire world begins laughing at them.

[mustang19]

Hill group was right, I dont see the problem. Where did hill group say $0?

A few years ago. Hard to say exactly when, after they were laughed out of a technical review they began purging the internet of all their work, the entire website disappeared. Sort of like what folks do to their social media when in a moment of honesty they post something honest, wildly ignorant, and so stupid that the entire world begins laughing at them.

They never said it with any evidence.

[AdamB]

They never said it with any evidence.

Yes. We know. But you believed it enough to bet on the claim. And revealed your character when you welshed.

[mustang19]

They never said it with any evidence.

Yes. We know. But you believed it enough to bet on the claim. And revealed your character when you welshed.

Show me the $0 claim.

[mustang19]

https://i.ibb.co/J7RzTJc/Screenshot-202 ... Mobile.jpg

[AdamB]

Show me the $0 claim.

Go read what Pops wrote in response to your sock puppet. No need for me to repeat his use of the wayback machine against your claptrap.