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Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 07 Jan 2021, 20:06:34

Newfie wrote:You may find this of some interest.

https://gcaptain.com/how-exporting-the- ... s-forever/


How dare you point out that not only did the US peak again, but it's production increase, the fastest the country has ever had in its history (2012-2013 I believe), began influencing the entire geopolitical aspects of the global oil market, is not allowed under the trolling rules in this thread!! It violates the "can only discuss make-believe Mustang ideas" concept!
Last edited by AdamB on Thu 07 Jan 2021, 20:59:47, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 2

Unread postby mustang19 » Thu 07 Jan 2021, 20:56:23

It didn't change them forever. It changed for abiut... five years.
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Re: Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 07 Jan 2021, 21:01:17

mustang19 wrote:It didn't change them forever. It changed for abiut... five years.


Certanly abiut lunger dan dat.
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Re: Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 2

Unread postby dcoyne78 » Tue 12 Jan 2021, 11:13:23

The following post may be of interest

https://peakoilbarrel.com/permian-basin ... aggerated/

Image

My guess is that a range of 50 to 70 Gb for Permian economically recoverable resources (ERR) has roughly a 50% confidence interval with about a 25% probability the ERR will be lower than 50 Gb and a 25% probability it will be higher than 70 Gb. The 90% confidence interval is 25 Gb to 100 Gb for Permian basin ERR.
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Re: Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 2

Unread postby Pops » Tue 12 Jan 2021, 12:37:18

Thanks Dennis, I appreciate you posting here.
I also appreciate your considering oil price in your calculations.
Have you done a model with prices higher that $100? Or without a late fall in price?
I wonder what might happen in the case of a near term onset of decline in "conventional" extraction that drives the price above $100
Thanks
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Re: Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 2

Unread postby mustang19 » Wed 13 Jan 2021, 00:30:11

dcoyne78 wrote:The following post may be of interest

https://peakoilbarrel.com/permian-basin ... aggerated/

Image

My guess is that a range of 50 to 70 Gb for Permian economically recoverable resources (ERR) has roughly a 50% confidence interval with about a 25% probability the ERR will be lower than 50 Gb and a 25% probability it will be higher than 70 Gb. The 90% confidence interval is 25 Gb to 100 Gb for Permian basin ERR.


Which makes no sense and oil production never just flatlines like that.
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Re: Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 13 Jan 2021, 00:32:42

mustang19 wrote:Which makes no sense and oil production never just flatlines like that.


He who welshes is wrong as usual. But you wouldn't know where it has happened, or why, and don't care anyway.
Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.

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Re: Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 2

Unread postby mustang19 » Wed 13 Jan 2021, 00:48:02

AdamB wrote:
mustang19 wrote:Which makes no sense and oil production never just flatlines like that.


He who welshes is wrong as usual. But you wouldn't know where it has happened, or why, and don't care anyway.


The closest equivalent would be saudi Arabia but that's multiple fields. North ghawar peaked in 2000, south ghawar primary peaked in 2005, secondary recovery in 2015, fracking 2018 and now ghawar is cratering.

Production has never been flat, the times it appears so is actually huge offsetting moves in different fields.
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Re: Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 13 Jan 2021, 16:43:40

mustang19 wrote:
AdamB wrote:He who welshes is wrong as usual. But you wouldn't know where it has happened, or why, and don't care anyway.


The closest equivalent would be saudi Arabia but that's multiple fields.


Considering he who welshes knows nothing about fields, or fields in Saudi Arabia, you don't have a clue as to what the closest equivalent might be.
Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.

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Re: Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 2

Unread postby mustang19 » Thu 14 Jan 2021, 00:03:20

AdamB wrote:
mustang19 wrote:
AdamB wrote:He who welshes is wrong as usual. But you wouldn't know where it has happened, or why, and don't care anyway.


The closest equivalent would be saudi Arabia but that's multiple fields.


Considering he who welshes knows nothing about fields, or fields in Saudi Arabia, you don't have a clue as to what the closest equivalent might be.


You're just a bot to create traffic.
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Re: Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 14 Jan 2021, 11:45:21

mustang19 wrote:
AdamB wrote:
mustang19 wrote:
AdamB wrote:He who welshes is wrong as usual. But you wouldn't know where it has happened, or why, and don't care anyway.


The closest equivalent would be saudi Arabia but that's multiple fields.


Considering he who welshes knows nothing about fields, or fields in Saudi Arabia, you don't have a clue as to what the closest equivalent might be.


You're just a bot to create traffic.


And you sir are a welsher and fraud. And an absolute lousy troll. A person who wants to pretend something is true when it isn't. A person who, when told where their work can be improved, doubles down on their ignorance. A person who when refutable sources are referenced, can't be bothered to learn from them if they dare to contradict his ignorance on the topic.

You want an honest conversation? Then stop making stuff up, including about posters who have done their best to inform you.
Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.

StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020
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Re: Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 2

Unread postby mustang19 » Thu 14 Jan 2021, 14:17:38

AdamB wrote:
mustang19 wrote:
AdamB wrote:
mustang19 wrote:[wrong as usual. But you wouldn't know where it has happened, or why, and don't care anyway.


The closest equivalent would be saudi Arabia but that's multiple fields.


Considering he who welshes knows nothing about fields, or fields in Saudi Arabia, you don't have a clue as to what the closest equivalent might be.


You're just a bot to create traffic.


And you sir are a welsher and fraud. And an absolute lousy troll. A person who wants to pretend something is true when it isn't. A person who, when told where their work can be improved, doubles down on their ignorance. A person who when refutable sources are referenced, can't be bothered to learn from them if they dare to contradict his ignorance on the topic.

You want an honest conversation? Then stop making stuff up, including about posters who have done their best to inform you.[/quote]

Who is this shorty person, did he ever use USGS data?
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Re: Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 14 Jan 2021, 14:30:14

mustang19 wrote:Who is this shorty person, did he ever use USGS data?


Apparently this shorty person is someone who got an engineering degree, couldn't cut it in that profession, and decided to design web pages instead. Later in his web design career, he pretended to come up with a thermodynamic idea for oil and gas production that was contradicted by fluid mechanics, reservoir dynamics, basic facts of hydrology and physics that real engineers in the oil field have understood for the better part of a century now.

Using this lack of knowledge about basic geology and any of the sciences involved in petroleum engineering, Shorty then predicted the end of the world by confusing correlation with causation in order to draw a line through some cherry picked data arriving at the conclusion that the price of oil would reach $0/bbl a few years back. Along the way he bet with some folks on this idea being right. Upon his entire method being laughed out of even a cursory review by real live expert types, Shorty tucked tail and ran, erasing his website and evidence of his towering testament to ignorance in the physical sciences as he fled the field of battle. Welshing on every bet he lost along the way.

He might have misrepresented USGS data like you have. Can't say I was paying much attention to his claims after 60 seconds of analysis revealed he was a huckster who didn't know the difference between correlation and causation.
Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.

StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020
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Re: Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 2

Unread postby mustang19 » Thu 14 Jan 2021, 14:36:32

AdamB wrote:
mustang19 wrote:Who is this shorty person, did he ever use USGS data?


Apparently this shorty person is someone who got an engineering degree, couldn't cut it in that profession, and decided to design web pages instead. Later in his web design career, he pretended to come up with a thermodynamic idea for oil and gas production that was contradicted by fluid mechanics, reservoir dynamics, basic facts of hydrology and physics that real engineers in the oil field have understood for the better part of a century now.

Using this lack of knowledge about basic geology and any of the sciences involved in petroleum engineering, Shorty then predicted the end of the world by confusing correlation with causation in order to draw a line through some cherry picked data arriving at the conclusion that the price of oil would reach $0/bbl a few years back. Along the way he bet with some folks on this idea being right. Upon his entire method being laughed out of even a cursory review by real live expert types, Shorty tucked tail and ran, erasing his website and evidence of his towering testament to ignorance in the physical sciences as he fled the field of battle. Welshing on every bet he lost along the way.

He might have misrepresented USGS data like you have. Can't say I was paying much attention to his claims after 60 seconds of analysis revealed he was a huckster who didn't know the difference between correlation and causation.


Hill group was right, I dont see the problem. Where did hill group say $0?
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Re: Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 14 Jan 2021, 14:56:02

mustang19 wrote:Hill group was right, I dont see the problem. Where did hill group say $0?


A few years ago. Hard to say exactly when, after they were laughed out of a technical review they began purging the internet of all their work, the entire website disappeared. Sort of like what folks do to their social media when in a moment of honesty they post something honest, wildly ignorant, and so stupid that the entire world begins laughing at them.
Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.

StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020
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Re: Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 2

Unread postby mustang19 » Thu 14 Jan 2021, 15:07:07

AdamB wrote:
mustang19 wrote:Hill group was right, I dont see the problem. Where did hill group say $0?


A few years ago. Hard to say exactly when, after they were laughed out of a technical review they began purging the internet of all their work, the entire website disappeared. Sort of like what folks do to their social media when in a moment of honesty they post something honest, wildly ignorant, and so stupid that the entire world begins laughing at them.


They never said it with any evidence.
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Re: Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 14 Jan 2021, 18:39:49

mustang19 wrote:They never said it with any evidence.


Yes. We know. But you believed it enough to bet on the claim. And revealed your character when you welshed.
Last edited by Tanada on Thu 14 Jan 2021, 20:29:04, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: fixed broken quote
Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.

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Re: Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 2

Unread postby mustang19 » Thu 14 Jan 2021, 23:22:25

AdamB wrote:
mustang19 wrote:They never said it with any evidence.


Yes. We know. But you believed it enough to bet on the claim. And revealed your character when you welshed.


Show me the $0 claim.
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Re: Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 2

Unread postby mustang19 » Thu 14 Jan 2021, 23:30:08

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Re: Wolfcamp! Here's The Hubbert Curve! Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 15 Jan 2021, 11:19:20

mustang19 wrote:Show me the $0 claim.


Go read what Pops wrote in response to your sock puppet. No need for me to repeat his use of the wayback machine against your claptrap.
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