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Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby Whitefang » Fri 01 Jan 2021, 12:15:24 ... 000-years/

Another 2030 point, goal on the agenda. Great reset at work.

Despite the fact that the area of the Arctic Ocean covered by sea ice during the winter maximum has declined only slightly in recent decades, the ice itself is profoundly different than it used to be. Very old ice—thick, strong, and more melt-resistant—has nearly vanished, and the amount of first-year ice—thin, salty, and unlikely to survive the summer—has skyrocketed.

This time series shows the Arctic sea ice extent in millions of square kilometers over the past roughly 1,500 years. Scientists use climate proxies like sediment/ice cores, tree rings, and fossilized shells of ocean creatures to extend the sea ice extent records back in time. These records show that while there have been several periods over the past 1,450 years when sea ice extents expanded and contracted, the decrease during the modern era is unrivaled. And just as importantly, it is beyond the range of natural variability, implying a human component to the drastic decrease observed in the records.

Sea ice in the Arctic Ocean has a history much longer than the last 2,000 years. It likely first formed about 47 million years ago. However, perennial—year round—sea ice at the North Pole first occurred 14-18 million years ago. A number of paleoclimate studies have shown that perennial sea ice has existed in the central Arctic for much of the last 350,000 years, with significant regional variability. This variability highlights the importance of expanding the number of paleoclimate reconstructions to better predict which regions are most susceptible to further sea ice loss.

Throughout geologic times, the amount of sea ice increased and decreased along with changes in temperature, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and the ice-age climate cycles. In fact, there were intermittent periods of ice-free conditions in the past 350,000 years up until the “modern” era of sea ice conditions began about 5,000 years ago.

These ice-free periods usually coincided with times when solar energy reaching the Arctic was at its largest due to small variations in the shape of Earth’s orbit and its axis of rotation. However, since the latter half of the Holocene epoch (about 5,000 years ago), some amount of year-round Arctic sea ice cover has been present. But as we move through the rest of the century, some climate model projections suggest that ice-free Arctic summers will return, possibly as early as 2030, but very likely before 2100.

All of our human homo sapiens sapiens existence the taiga, largest forest on Earth, deposited carbon into the arctic.
East Siberia were not covered by an ice sheet, rivers flowed North in summer.
With glacial maximum, ESAS frozen with permafrost, now since last interglacial submerged creating the shallow seas North of Russia. After millenia this lid is broken and the huge store of Carbon free to go into the atmosphere and above. ... tists-find

The scientists – who are part of a multi-year International Shelf Study Expedition – stressed their findings were preliminary. Methane seeps detected in the past were found to be historic, but the expedition believes these are new based on an earlier study showing movement of the subsea permafrost between the early 1980s and 2015. The scale of methane releases will not be confirmed until they return, analyse the data and have their studies published in a peer-reviewed journal.
But the discovery of potentially destabilised slope frozen methane raises concerns about the potential impact on the speed of global heating.

The Arctic is considered ground zero in the debate about the vulnerability of frozen methane deposits – which have been called the “sleeping giants of the carbon cycle” - in the ocean, and if releases were to exceed a tipping point it could increase the speed of global heating.
With the Arctic temperature now rising more than twice as fast as the global average, the question of when – or even whether – they will be released into the atmosphere has been a matter of considerable uncertainty in climate computer models.

Back at Cid and is happening.
Link that to the panic and speed of evil plans to gear humanity into an AI slave population, sustainable.
Why go covid/great reset when the big tech 5G networks are to date only functional in big city China?
This does not make sense.

The ESAS makes up a quarter of the Arctic shelf area (Shakhova et al. 2010a), with an average depth of only 58 metres (Jakobsson 2002) and significant riverine input.
Year: 2009
From collection: Frozen Heat - A Global Outlook on Methane Gas Hydrates ... .2014.0451

Sustained release of methane (CH4) to the atmosphere from thawing Arctic permafrost may be a positive and significant feedback to climate warming. Atmospheric venting of CH4 from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) was recently reported to be on par with flux from the Arctic tundra; however, the future scale of these releases remains unclear. Here, based on results of our latest observations, we show that CH4 emissions from this shelf are likely to be determined by the state of subsea permafrost degradation. We observed CH4 emissions from two previously understudied areas of the ESAS: the outer shelf, where subsea permafrost is predicted to be discontinuous or mostly degraded due to long submergence by seawater, and the near shore area, where deep/open taliks presumably form due to combined heating effects of seawater, river run-off, geothermal flux and pre-existing thermokarst. CH4 emissions from these areas emerge from largely thawed sediments via strong flare-like ebullition, producing fluxes that are orders of magnitude greater than fluxes observed in background areas underlain by largely frozen sediments. We suggest that progression of subsea permafrost thawing and decrease in ice extent could result in a significant increase in CH4 emissions from the ESAS.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby JuanP » Wed 06 Jan 2021, 14:07:17

"Scientists warn of imminent warming event at North Pole which threatens to strike UK with another ‘Beast from the East’" ... orth-pole/

A new study led by researchers at the Universities of Bristol, Exeter, and Bath examined 40 observed sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events which occurred over the last 60 years.

These events take place in the atmospheric band of air located between 10 and 50km (6.2 and 31 miles) above the earth's surface and can see the polar atmospheric temperatures rise by up to 50 degrees Celsius in just a few days which, in turn, can create extreme weather events elsewhere in the world.

According to their climate models and observations, one such sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event will take place Wednesday, January 5, as the polar vortex above the North Pole has split in two.

Also, the latest Arctic Sea Ice report by NSIDC is out:

"Arctic sea ice extent averaged for December 2020 was the third lowest in the satellite record. The monthly average extent of 11.77 million square kilometers (4.54 million square miles) was 1.07 million square kilometers (413,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 December average."

There is still slush at the North Pole as of yesterday. Follow the link above for the full report, including "The Arctic sea ice year in review".
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2021

Unread postby dissident » Thu 07 Jan 2021, 01:38:47

The only weather relevance of SSWs is that they can indicate certain emerging dynamical regimes in the troposphere. The large temperature variations in the stratosphere have negligible direct heating impact on the surface. In fact, the prime impact is a small pressure variation at the surface. The atmospheric density falls off exponentially with altitude so the energy density does too for any sort of reasonable temperature profile. So a 50C variation above above 30 km (where the largest SSW impact occurs) is roughly the equivalent of 0.5C variation at the surface. Such a thermal energy variation is not going to radiate much down to the surface and the transport is way too slow to "flush" it into the troposphere.

The temperature impact from SSWs is mostly the moving of the polar vortex off its near-pole average by many degrees latitude. This deformation is mostly reversible since it is induced by a resonant amplification of quasi-stationary Rossby waves number 1 and 2 (the largest planetary Rossby wave components). The troposphere-stratosphere circulation state primes this resonance. Typically the Rossby wave flux is upward and equatorward. But under the right conditions the flux is trapped in the polar cap inside the polar vortex and ends up greatly deforming it. Most of the action is horizontal even if coupled over a deep layer. The induced vertical circulation (or diabatic circulation) remains weak so the anomaly is not a vertical transport feature.
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