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PeakOil is You

Peak Oil 2020/2021

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Oil 2020

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 27 Dec 2020, 16:45:43

JuanP wrote:
Running the pelton wheel and generator at 100% of their capacity 24/365 would likely make them less reliable and more likely to fail or break. Running them at 80% of their capacity is probably better. I always try to avoid running engines and mechanical systems at 100% of their capacity because of the strain you put on them.


Good point!
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Re: Peak Oil 2020

Unread postby JuanP » Sat 02 Jan 2021, 18:50:07

"Russia's oil output plunges to lowest level in almost a decade"
https://www.rt.com/business/511364-russ ... cade-lows/

"Oil and condensate production in Russia fell for the first time in 12 years and reached nine-year lows in 2020, as one of the major global oil exporters supported the historic OPEC+ deal to boost a pandemic-hit energy market.
Last year Russia pumped 512.68 million tons of crude and condensate, meaning that the production volume decreased 8.6 percent compared to 2019, according to TASS, citing data from the statistical unit of the country’s Energy Ministry, CDU-TEK. Last year’s oil production almost reached the levels of 2010, when it stood at 512.3 million tons.

The decline followed a record output level in 2019, when the nation’s production reached 568 million tons, and marked the first drop since 2008."
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Re: Peak Oil 2020

Unread postby Pops » Mon 04 Jan 2021, 11:06:59

OPEC+ is trying to maintain a price in the face of low demand due to the pandemic.

An overabundance of supplies, a significant slowdown in demand and a sudden drop in oil prices could, in the short term, hide, or even accentuate, the risks weighing on the oil supply in the medium and long terms.
...
“At less than $ 40 a barrel,” they write, “it is inconceivable to imagine the future of the energy sector calmly. In the first place, insufficient investments could jeopardize the possibility of ensuring the continuity of oil supply in the medium term. But this also risks delaying, or even failing to commit, funding for short-term low-carbon energies which, if they are not subsidized, will de facto become less attractive for end users drowned in inexpensive fossil fuels.

https://aspofrance.org/2020/07/10/apres ... r-le-choc/

The Oughts were instructive because the simple situation outlined PO: high demand, constrained supply, escalating price, peak conventional, recession.
The teens pretty boring tho they showed just how short our horizons.

The 20s are way more interesting. The situation is anything but simple no matter how the cornies wish it to be "normal":
Pandemic, Red Queen LTO, underlying declines growing, possible overall peak, intentional demand destruction via decarbonization —or not, depending on your party. Partisanship in the US that obliterates any useful dialog about the future because we can't even agree on the outlines of the present.

Could be 18 billion vaccines are shipped tomorrow, the economy comes roaring back, LTO spins back up (there is a sucker born every day), Biden convinces all the trumpers to vote for the Green Deal and jobs and infrastructure and RE all flood our lives with goodness.

Or the vaccine rollout is botched and the pandemic rages on, the economy (≠ the stock market) struggles then crashes when the props are kicked out, low demand bankrupts most LTO and investors figure $40B fracked away with little return is enough, other conventional projects are mothballed hindering medium term replacement and long term development. Biden finds out that, surprise!, trump was the republican party all along and they would rather die than vote for anything good for anybody because it might help the mob.
3-4-5 years hence as the economy tries to restart we find, oops, not enough supply, couple more years we find, oops, depletion has caught up and not only can't supply grow, but it can't even stay the same.

I feel like the LTO Ponzi pyramid is nearing its comeuppance right about on schedule. I felt but didn't know that it wouldn't be viable elsewhere, it appears not. Nothing new on the conventional front in 15 years. US democracy is teetering, it has abandoned the world and we know about power vacuums. Debt is soaring because our economy is dependant on growth, yet the population isn't growing...

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Oops, got a little doomy here in the middle of winter, I get nervous when I live in town, LOL
Our kids are deploying to the lower 48 next year and we are likely to move near them. We'll also likely build something permanent and be a little self-sufficient by '25 or so.

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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Pops » Mon 18 Jan 2021, 07:56:45

Front page of PO.com has this
Global fossil fuel demand should peak in 2027, says consulting firm McKinsey
After a long period of growth, global liquids demand peaks in the late 2020s, followed by a 10% decline in demand by 2050. This is mainly driven by slowing car-park growth, enhanced engine efficiency in road transport, and increased electrification


10% by 2050? LOL, US LTO alone could fall that far in 10 years, 30 years?

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The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Pops » Mon 18 Jan 2021, 08:08:58

Oops, that was a premature submittal.

I was about to say the chart shows demand growth slowing after the post $100/bbl surge around 2015-17. Still it was averaging at least a percent per year. Obviously that was nearing the end of the last economic bubble with the post 2017 period juiced to the max by corporate tax giveaways and 0% interest and trillions in government debt.

Some of us are in a different world now, unfortunately I think COVID won't be some huge reset for the majority. Lots of bankruptcies and foreclosures as soon as the plague allows, then it is off to the races again. Demand will spike for oil in the second half of the 2020s, right up to where it was before.

Unless it can't

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The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Pops » Mon 18 Jan 2021, 10:28:37

Oh and to the headline editors, the title should be
Peak Oil 2020s
the premise being, if we peaked in the teens, what do the '20s hold
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