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Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 14 Nov 2020, 18:17:58

This dead horse has been beaten so much I doubt anyone would even recognize the pulverized remains anymore.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Baduila » Tue 15 Dec 2020, 06:01:32

In November Peak Oil has celebrated its second birthday.

Image

The projection for the oil price is now about two years old and valid.
My projection for oil production is only 7 months old, but still valid.

It's the thermodynamics, stupid !
( https://limitstogrowth.de/wp-content/up ... _EN_09.pdf )

Oil is bought in a world economy only if a profit can be generated with it. No profit, no oil consumption. So, based on thermodynamics, a second statement can be made:

It's the economy, stupid !
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 15 Dec 2020, 09:57:52

Baduila wrote:In November Peak Oil has celebrated its second birthday.


You mean the most recent peak oil. As we know, ETP doesn't know any more about oil than it does thermodynamics, after having forced its author right off the internet in embarrassment when the price of oil didn't go to $0/bbl a year or two back as this method predicted.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Pops » Tue 15 Dec 2020, 11:52:26

Funny that the oil price is falling in tandem with increasing surplus oil from high intensity extraction.
Coincidence surely.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 15 Dec 2020, 13:42:10

Pops wrote:Funny that the oil price is falling in tandem with increasing surplus oil from high intensity extraction.
Coincidence surely.

Helped along of course, by a significant pandemic-induced drop in global demand.

But of course, 2022 and beyond are on the way, and we'll see whether the global demand has peaked or not. I see a race over the next decade or so between more light fleet electrification reducing potential transpo crude oil demand growth, and overall global growth in things like roads and petrochemicals making net global crude demand an interesting horse race, overall.

Now, once EV's and especially BEV's seriously ramp up in light vehicle fleet competition (in the 2030's, IMO), then I think the overall demand for crude drops globally, but slowly. In a world that deals better with slow vs. rapid and stressful transitions (re economic stability), and in a world that badly needs to deal with AGW instead of just ignoring it and has finite crude oil supplies -- on balance, I'd call the overall news re likely global crude demand as a trend fairly positive.

Of course, I'm not looking for daily excuses to claim rapid doom is at hand, unlike the usual suspects, so there's that. :idea:

Oh, and re the ETP thing, I believe 2021 was the year WTI was supposed to descend to like two bucks as the global economy completely collapses, unable to "afford" to produce crude, and so unable to function. But in the REAL world, despite a nasty pandemic that may well kill a million or more globally (on top of the 1.6 million so far) before we're done, and a large proportion of that by late spring -- the prospects for the overall economy for the next few years look rather solid indeed. Especially given all the stress and shutdown and reduced economic activity that's caused in 2020, and will continue to cause until the vaccines can do their work in spite of anti-vaxxer resistance slowing that down. Again, good news overall, NOT remotely like total collapse.

Resiliency is a thing that the fast crash doomers miss CONSTANTLY, and fail to learn from decade after decade after decade.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Baduila » Thu 14 Jan 2021, 12:41:07

Some images need an update. First The original HillsGroup Price diagram with a 2020 data point.

Image
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Baduila » Thu 14 Jan 2021, 12:45:08

An ETP diagram with more details, showing the difference between theory and reality. The current delay between theoretical price decay and reality has increased to three years.

We have to expect a DD point in the next days.

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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Baduila » Thu 14 Jan 2021, 12:47:43

The last one contains the price projection together with production projection.
Both projections are full on track.

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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 14 Jan 2021, 14:43:35

Baduila wrote:Some images need an update. First The original HillsGroup Price diagram with a 2020 data point.

Image


That is a LONG way from the original graph of projections from Hills Group. I am too distracted to dig it out right now, but this graph is definitely time shifted so that the original disproven projection is not shown. By now on the original graph oil was worth less than $10/bbl and by next year they would be paying us to take it off their hands.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 14 Jan 2021, 14:52:41

Baduila wrote:The last one contains the price projection together with production projection.
Both projections are full on track.

What about the ones since disproven by reality? Can you show those on this graph as well, so we know how many different times a shifting of the goal posts has happened?
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Baduila » Thu 14 Jan 2021, 14:53:44

This graph is from their commentary pages. Please dig and post the graph you find.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 14 Jan 2021, 15:01:51

Baduila wrote:This graph is from their commentary pages. Please dig and post the graph you find.


Who is "they"? Shorty and his invisible helpers? Here is the Hill Group website. Are you claiming that Shorty works for these folks in the website design department?
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 14 Jan 2021, 15:17:56

I dug this post out of another thread, unfortunately Hillsgroup let their website die so the linked image is no longer available. Fortunately I wrote down the numbers from that graph in my post responding to charmcitysking.
Tanada wrote:
charmcitysking wrote:Hi All

Is anyone able to provide an honest, concise post about the current status of the ETP model?

Am I right in saying that it is predicting an average maximum affordability price for consumers in 2017 of around $54? And if that's correct, can anyone confirm what the yearly average price for a barrel of oil was for (so far) 2017? And it's something in the high 40's for next year, correct? Apologies - there's just countless threads on this topic and much of it is two sides personally attacking each other (not that I mind, I actually find these things quite entertaining :-D ).

I've been a casual observer here for a few years - certainly not as "fired up" about the topic of Peak Oil as I was when I first watched Mike Ruppert's "Collapse" but the topic is still intriguing to me and still read the forums often.

Also, I see people call Rockman a 'oil industry shill' or apologist a good bit, but I recall reading his concept of a Peak Oil dynamic years back and that has always stuck with me and kept me floating around this site - so "mucho thanks" for that, RM!


Those who never believed in the ETP model point out it has now failed in its predictions for 2017 while the authors and their acolytes are trying to move the goal posts to give the ETP model a few more months for the price of oil to start a terminal decline ending at $0.00/bbl over the next few years.

EIA Outlook wrote:North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $63 per barrel (b) in November, an increase of $5/b from the average in October. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices to average $57/b in 2018, up from an average of $54/b in 2017.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast to average $4/b lower than Brent prices in 2018. After averaging $2/b lower than Brent prices through the first eight months of 2017, WTI prices averaged $6/b lower than Brent prices from September through November.


STEO

So EIA numbers demonstrate that for 2017 Brent has averaged $54/bbl while WTI prices averaged about $50/bbl over the first eight months of the year. Final numbers won't be out for at least another month, perhaps longer. Back in the early days of ETP Shorty posted links to the graphs in his model runs. See this one in particular where he claimed 2012 was the start of the doom slide to oblivion.
Image

In that graph
2020 maximum oil price is $12.50/bbl
2019 maximum oil price is $26.00/bbl
2018 maximum oil price is $47.50/bbl
2017 maximum oil price is $52.50/bbl

These are eyeball estimates and may be off $1.50 here or there but nothing further than that.

IOW the model is now at best on life support and in the opinion of those who never bought into it already broken while the acolytes are still insisting that next year average oil prices will fall in line with the model predictions no matter what the world economy or geopolitical situation is during the next three years. Under the model by 2025 Oil will have negative economic value making it far more trouble to use than it is worth, despite the fact that in 2017 the world economy desires near 95 MM/bbl/d of crude input.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Baduila » Thu 14 Jan 2021, 15:47:21

The violet triangles include these four points:
2020 maximum oil price is $12.50/bbl
2019 maximum oil price is $26.00/bbl
2018 maximum oil price is $47.50/bbl
2017 maximum oil price is $52.50/bbl

Please cite original comments from shorty, not comments from people who have heard from other people what shorty has said.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 14 Jan 2021, 18:48:57

Baduila wrote:Please cite original comments from shorty, not comments from people who have heard from other people what shorty has said.


Please cite the reference you claim exists in the comments of the Hills Group, website having been previously provided. And do we have to use just shorties comments, or can we use those from his sock puppets as well? :lol:
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Pops » Fri 15 Jan 2021, 09:59:24

The Maximum Consumer Price curve is curtailed at 2020 at $11.76/ barrel.


https://web.archive.org/web/20150103150 ... n2_022.htm
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Baduila » Fri 15 Jan 2021, 10:44:13

Crazy. I did not know that it is possible to resurrect the dead (pages).

The second graph on that page is the base of the graph i posted.

2020 the average WTI price has been 39.16 $/bbl, intermediate between the predicted 2018 and 2019 prices.
If you take that value, shorty missed the target by 1.5 years.

Richard Feynman on the Scientific Method:
In general we look for a new law by the following process. First we guess it. Then we compute the consequences of the guess to see what would be implied if this law that we guessed is right. Then we compare the result of the computation to nature, with experiment or experience, compare it directly with observation, to see if it works.If it disagrees with experiment, it’s wrong. In that simple statement is the key to science.

Up to now ETP is right, only 1.5 years missed.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 15 Jan 2021, 10:59:03

Pops wrote:
The Maximum Consumer Price curve is curtailed at 2020 at $11.76/ barrel.


https://web.archive.org/web/20150103150 ... n2_022.htm


Why look at that. From the website that Shorty has tried so desperately to purge. Hung by his own historical petard as it were. Not even letting the domain expire can hide the technical chicanery of Hill and his "group".
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Pops » Fri 15 Jan 2021, 11:03:37

Baduila wrote:Up to now ETP is right, only 1.5 years missed.


So yesterday it was "full on track", but now only off by a year and a half?

You're the one pushing this nonsense, is it foolproof physics with 97% confidence or is it just bullshit?

Up to now it's bullshit.

Plug real oil price, not nominal, into your magic formula and get back to us.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 15 Jan 2021, 11:16:10

Baduila wrote:Crazy. I did not know that it is possible to resurrect the dead (pages).


Obviously. Otherwise you wouldn't have thought that scrubbing the domain name itself would save your reputation among...you know...vertebrates.


Basduila wrote:Richard Feynman on the Scientific Method:
In general we look for a new law by the following process. First we guess it. Then we compute the consequences of the guess to see what would be implied if this law that we guessed is right. Then we compare the result of the computation to nature, with experiment or experience, compare it directly with observation, to see if it works.If it disagrees with experiment, it’s wrong. In that simple statement is the key to science.

Up to now ETP is right, only 1.5 years missed.


And those of us who knew it was a crock the instant we looked at it, know why it would never be right. Before reality demonstrated that some folks, you know, know stuff. Good luck with this dead albatross around your neck.
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