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Arctic Sea Ice 2020

moorings in the Eurasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean 2003-2018

Unread postby Whitefang » Sun 08 Nov 2020, 08:33:29

https://phys.org/news/2020-08-arctic-oc ... a-ice.html

The eastern Arctic Ocean's winter ice grew less than half as much as normal during the past decade, due to the growing influence of heat from the ocean's interior, researchers have found.

The moorings measured the heat released from the ocean interior to the upper ocean and sea ice during winter. In 2016-2018, the estimated heat flux was about 10 watts per square meter, which is enough to prevent 80-90 centimeters (almost 3 feet) of sea ice from forming each year. Previous heat flux measurements were about half of that much.

"In the past, when weighing the contribution of atmosphere and ocean to melting sea ice in the Eurasian Basin, the atmosphere led," said Igor Polyakov, an oceanographer at UAF's International Arctic Research Center and FMI. "Now for the first time, ocean leads. That's a big change."

Typically, across much of the Arctic a thick layer of cold fresher water, known as a halocline, isolates the heat associated with the intruding Atlantic water from the sea surface and from sea ice.


Polyakov and his team hypothesize that the ocean's ability to control winter ice growth creates feedback that speeds overall sea ice loss in the Arctic. In this feedback, both declining sea ice and the weakening halocline barrier cause the ocean's interior to release heat to the surface, resulting in further sea ice loss. The mechanism augments the well-known ice-albedo feedback—which occurs when the atmosphere melts sea ice, causing open water, which in turn absorbs more heat, melting more sea ice.

When these two feedback mechanisms combine, they accelerate sea ice decline. The ocean heat feedback limits sea ice growth in winter, while the ice-albedo feedback more easily melts the thinner ice in summer.

"As they start working together, the coupling between the atmosphere, ice and ocean becomes very strong, much stronger than it was before," said Polyakov. "Together they can maintain a very fast rate of ice melt in the Arctic."


https://phys.org/news/2020-07-arctic-oc ... -seas.html

New research explores how lower-latitude oceans drive complex changes in the Arctic Ocean, pushing the region into a new reality distinct from the 20th-century norm.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby FamousDrScanlon » Wed 11 Nov 2020, 01:21:43

Andy Lee Robinson does a service every year creating this animation.



Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Volumes 1979-2020

Latest visualization of the startling decline of Arctic Sea Ice, showing the minimum volume reached every September since 1979. At this rate, it is expected that the Arctic ocean will become ice-free for an increasingly large part of the year beginning sometime in the 2030s.

The rate of loss is staggering. In just 40 years the volume of Summer Arctic sea ice has declined by about 80%.
What may normally take tens of thousands of years to happen in geologic timescales has happened within half a human lifespan, and continuing.


https://youtu.be/oSrWcsaCnkg
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Nova Zembla defence broken

Unread postby Whitefang » Wed 18 Nov 2020, 15:25:08

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 995,69.695

The Nova Zenbla icecap used to be, last decades, the barrier between the new atlantic regime and the old arctic.
Not anymore.
Warm air from western Europe is heading all the way up to the shores of the northernmost peninsula of Siberia.
At the pacific side abnormal SST is driving moderately freezing temperatures up the North slope of the Brooks range.
There is still a bridge of arctic air connecting the asian cold pool with the Canadian Barren/GIS.
Winter will completely refreeze the arctic say early next year of so, but it will be so fragile that any anomaly has the potential to break up the sea ice next summer.

Some time next few years warm pacific and atlantic airmasses will meet, even in the dead of winter.
That will be the flipflop to a new climate regime on Earth since everything is connected with SST and abnormal shifts, especially when happening in years or a season or two.

I hope I am wrong, I'd love to see decades of time before the S hits the fan.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kara_Sea

The Kara Sea (Russian: Ка́рское мо́ре, Karskoye more) is part of the Arctic Ocean north of Siberia. It is separated from the Barents Sea to the west by the Kara Strait and Novaya Zemlya, and from the Laptev Sea to the east by the Severnaya Zemlya archipelago. It is named after the Kara River (flowing into Baydaratskaya Bay), which is now relatively insignificant but which played an important role in the Russian conquest of northern Siberia.[2] The Kara River name is derived from a Nenets word meaning "hummocked ice".[3]

The Kara Sea's northern limit is marked geographically by a line running from Cape Kohlsaat in Graham Bell Island, Franz Josef Land, to Cape Molotov (Arctic Cape), the northernmost point of Komsomolets Island in Severnaya Zemlya.


Oh wait, it happened before, 2012....

https://barentsobserver.com/en/news/kara-sea-ice-free

While central Europe and Russia are freezing and covered with snow, the story is different in the high Arctic. In late January BarentsObserver reported on abnormal heat on Svalbard with weeks with temperatures over freezing, rain and smelting snow. The situation at sea in the Arctic is even more abnormal.

A climate blogger writing for Climate Progress has posted this series of satellite images of the extent of the sea ice over the last nine years, a period with dramatic changes in Arctic. But, while the sea ice has melted earlier in the spring and come back later in autumn, February has been a stable month with ice nearly everywhere as the sun is under the horizon. Until this year.


Current conditions:

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

The median ice edge runs smoothly from 1981 to 2010.

A vast area of the Arctic Ocean remains ice free as November begins, far later in the season than is typical. The monthly average ice extent for October is the lowest in the satellite record. On October 24, a record difference was set in daily ice extent relative to the 1981 to 2010 average. Large heat transfers from the open water to the atmosphere have manifested as above-average air temperatures near the surface of the ocean.


October 2020 is the largest departure from average conditions seen in any month thus far in the satellite record, falling 3.69 standard deviations below the 1981 to 2010 mean. Ice extent is far below average in all of sectors of the Eurasian side of the Arctic Ocean and in Baffin Bay.
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Re: Nova Zembla defence broken

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 18 Nov 2020, 23:39:26

Whitefang wrote:
Some time next few years warm pacific and atlantic airmasses will meet, even in the dead of winter.
That will be the flipflop to a new climate regime on Earth since everything is connected with SST and abnormal shifts, especially when happening in years or a season or two.

I hope I am wrong, I'd love to see decades of time before the S hits the fan.


I'm just the opposite. I want to see the S hit the fan. It should be pretty darn exciting to see how everything changes.

Cheers! :) 8)

PS: Thanks for posting the links and commentary on the NSIDC sea ice daily reports. Nice to see we were at all time record sea ice lows all through October, because it produced splendid weather here in central Alaska all through October.
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Arctic high to storm lows

Unread postby Whitefang » Thu 19 Nov 2020, 04:12:22

I'm just the opposite. I want to see the S hit the fan. It should be pretty darn exciting to see how everything changes.


I do share your curiousity for the biblical events that are happening, when building sand castles and fortresses at the beach I were always for the waves, for the water and storm to take my humble place, my work as everything we know by reason is temporary. Once drove past that chilly high one loaded with green leaf, camped out at the base of Mt Blackburn with the Northern light dancing around early october, just before the snow. McCarthy mining, very surreal.
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I fell in love with north-western America, from Baja California to the Alaskan peninsula.
Back on topic:

https://oceanconservancy.org/blog/2020/ ... c-sea-ice/

Even those who will never see Arctic sea ice, or even hear about it, are affected. Sea ice patterns affect weather throughout the northern hemisphere. When sea ice is absent off northern Alaska, the eastern seaboard of the United States can get major snowstorms. This unexpected result is nonetheless a sign of global warming and the disruption of the stable climate that has existed for all of recorded human history. What happens without sea ice is something we simply do not know.

Scientific studies and models can help us appreciate what sea ice does for the planet. Indigenous knowledge illuminates what sea ice does for Arctic waters and animals. We can also remember the beauty of sea ice and the wonder we feel in its presence, like the two young men in the photo.
Let us not, however, regard sea ice as other-worldly. Sea ice is our-worldly—an all-too-visible symbol of how we are treating our home.


http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/11 ... -2020.html

Above image shows the Northern Hemisphere at November 12, 2020, with a temperature forecast of 2.0°C or 35.5°F at the North Pole at 1000 hPa at 15:00Z. On the right, jet stream crosses the Arctic Ocean (at 250 hPa). At surface level, a temperature was forecast to be 0.6°C or 33.2°F.
As it turned out, the highest temperature at the North Pole was 1.1°C or 34.1°F on November 12, 2020, at 1000 hPa at 18:00Z, as above image shows. At 15:00Z that day, a temperature of 1.9°C or 35.3°F was recorded at 1000 hPa just south of the North Pole, at 89.50° N, 1.50° E.
The image below shows temperature anomalies for November 12, 2020, with forecasts approaching 30°C.


The resulting distortion of the Jet Stream can at times speed up winds that move hot air from the North Atlantic Ocean toward to Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the image at the top. The danger is that such winds will speed up ocean currents and that more heat will be carried into the Arctic Ocean.

More ocean heat can move into the Arctic Ocean for a number of reasons, including:
At times, the Jet Stream becomes very elongated, speeding up the flow of ocean heat along the Gulf Stream all the way to the Arctic Ocean;
Overall, winds are getting stronger, speeding up ocean currents running just below the sea surface;
Stratification of the North Atlantic results in less heat mixing down to lower parts of the ocean; and
Increased evaporation and rainfall further down the path of the Gulf Stream can create a colder freshwater lid at the surface of the North Atlantic near the Arctic Ocean, sealing off tranfer of heat from ocean to atmosphere and consequently moving more heat just underneath the sea surface into the Arctic Ocean.


https://www.tellerreport.com/life/---cl ... kZyrE.html

'
Climate change cause invasion of polar bears on Nova Zembla'
11-2-2019 14:57:35

The Russian archipelago Nova Zembla is suffering this winter from an invasion of polar bears. The problems are a direct result of melting polar ice caused by climate change, causing the animals to drift.

The situation on Nova Zembla is now so serious that the authorities issued a state of emergency last Saturday. Russian military personnel have flown in to protect the roughly three thousand residents living on Nova Zembla from the polar bears. The situation is particularly worrying in the Beloesja Goeba settlement.


"People are afraid to leave their homes and parents dare not let their children go to school," said Zhigansha Musin, head of the local administration on the archipelago, against AFP . "I've been on Nova Zembla since 1983 and have never seen such a massive invasion of polar bears."
Fences have now been placed around childcare for the safety of children. Soldiers have used special vehicles to transport people. They also hold patrols and have dogs with them that have to keep the polar bears at a distance.
The Russian authorities have so far refused to grant permission to shoot the animals. The polar bear is a protected species in Russia and hunting on animals is prohibited. Nature conservation experts hope that the measures will help and that the local population will not grab the gun.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 19 Nov 2020, 11:19:26

I was playing around with the NSIDC interactive chart this morning when I realized something. The current default setting for the chart is the 30 year climate cycle of 1981-2010. This means logically after the first of the New Year the climate cycle should switch to 1991-2020 which will shift things to a certain extent as far as averages, norms and extremes outside the norm are concerned.

The 1981-2010 period barely captures when things started to radically change in 2005-2010 with 2005, then 2007 setting new record lows followed by 2008 nearly tying the 2007 low. The new period up through 2020 will encompass 2012 and 2011 which set a new all time low and in the second case tied the 2007 low. The new years including 2013-2020 are all in the very lowest part of the standard deviation shadow or lower.

The effect of this will be to drag the standard deviation shadow to a lower extent as the 30 year average from 1991-2020 will be at a lower level than the current 1981-2010 average line. In point of fact they include the option of graphing the 2011-2019 average and that line is just below the shaded standard deviation for most of its length. With "standard" meaning the "30 year average" take a significant downward shift which will give the 2011-2020 period a much more "normal" appearance because the current pattern has now lasted 15 of the last 30 years if we start counting in 2005 when the first serious changes were detected in Arctic sea ice behavior.

If this were only going to be discussed by academics it would be of little consequence. Unfortunately I think this will give those denying climate change significance new ammunition to point at the new graphs based on the 1991-2020 averages and saying "See things are not that different from average, you are panicking over nothing".
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 19 Nov 2020, 13:00:42

Thanks for the heads up, T.

Someone recently pointed out that the current sea ice max is now equal to the sea ice minimum of thirty some years ago.

I believe, though we didn't hit a new low minimum this season, we have since gone below the lowest level for the refreeze period.

I don't think we still really have any idea of how enormous the consequences of these new realities will be for the climate of the Northern Hemisphere and for ocean currents, etc
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 19 Nov 2020, 19:44:37

dohboi wrote:Someone recently pointed out that the current sea ice max is now equal to the sea ice minimum of thirty some years ago.


That there is what we call a WILD exaggeration dohboi lol. In 1979 the annual minimum was 6,936,000 km^2 and in 2019 the annual maximum was 14,817,000 which is yes, more than twice the 1979 minimum.

While things are bad and getting worse please do not repeat such things without checking them yourself of if you must ask me. Every time such a wild inaccuracy is stated as fact it just gives the deniers more ammunition to use to convince themselves and others we are wild eyed idiots who don't know what we are talking about.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby dissident » Fri 20 Nov 2020, 16:19:24

This came up several times before. It is literally moving goal posts. The reference period has to be fixed for any fair trend evaluation. Moving with the trend artificially diminishes it. It's like comparing 2020 with 2020. Utterly pointless even if there are a few years of spread.

The only actual issue with using period around 1980 as a reference point is that the 1970s were a cold anomaly due to aerosol pollution from coal in the wake of the 1940s through 1960s world economic boom. (The US GDP jumped spectacularly during WWII and there was a lot of industrial activity for war). So some correction for this cold anomaly could be useful. But it is not a big deal since the warming anomaly since 1980 is much larger.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 22 Nov 2020, 10:41:25

T: I think the measure was ice volume, not extent. But sorry, I should have the numbers and links on hand,which I don't

But yeah, as the ice get's thin and slushy it can still have a considerably apparent 'extent' even tho there's a lot less ice involved...hardly any old 3 meter + ice anymore

dis: good points, as usual on these threads...thanks
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby JuanP » Sun 22 Nov 2020, 13:40:34

dohboi wrote:T: I think the measure was ice volume, not extent. But sorry, I should have the numbers and links on hand,which I don't

But yeah, as the ice get's thin and slushy it can still have a considerably apparent 'extent' even tho there's a lot less ice involved...hardly any old 3 meter + ice anymore

dis: good points, as usual on these threads...thanks


Dohboi, I think what happened is that your post didn't specify whether you were talking about volume, thickness, or extent, and Tanada assumed you were referring to extent while you were talking about volume. I am not an expert on this, but I think you may have been correct regarding volume.

https://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-sea- ... thickness/
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby dissident » Mon 23 Nov 2020, 12:20:38

The fixation on extent is my other pet peeve. Not only does it count slush as actual ice based on fraction, it is meaningless when the volume is collapsing. The real resistance of Arctic sea ice is in its volume and not in its extent. Glaciers also resist loss via their volume and not their geographic surface area. A 1mm thick layer of ice over Greenland would be nothing.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby JuanP » Wed 25 Nov 2020, 23:26:05

"Growing 'heat blob' from Atlantic driving sea ice loss in Arctic, study says"
https://www.independent.co.uk/environme ... 60392.html

"When warm, salty Atlantic water reaches the Arctic, it sinks below the ocean surface to form a “heat blob”. The reason it sinks down is because it is more salty, and thus more dense, than cool and fresh Arctic water.

The sinking of the warm Atlantic water below the cool Arctic water usually allows sea ice to form on top of the Arctic Ocean.

However, the increased delivery of ocean heat from the Atlantic identified in this study could disrupt this balance.

In some parts of the Arctic, such as the Barents Sea, warm salty Atlantic water has begun escaping to the ocean surface, where it is causing Arctic sea ice to melt. This phenomenon is known as “Atlantification”."

I expect the fresh and salt water to keep mixing more and more in time until the fresh water essentially ceases to exist in most, if not all, of the Arctic.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby dissident » Thu 26 Nov 2020, 01:12:15

Why the inane waffle language "could"? Heat pumping into the Arctic basin is increasing and it is understood why at a fundamental level. There are no "error bars" on this understanding.

It is important for this subject to know that the warm, salty water does not sink that far down. And over time this "blob" which is actually a layer, is getting thicker. The thermal memory in the oceans is extremely long. Basically water is quasi-adiabatic below the surface. That is why we have the thermal signature of Krakatoa still around making its slow descent into deeper waters following the global THC.

So we have warm air masses increasingly impinging on the Arctic and this is happening in the water as well. The fresh water that dilutes the salty surface waters is also getting warmer since it comes from the south (Siberian and Canadian great northern rivers). Over time this will result in a combination of warmer subsurface and shallow depth waters combined with a thermal blanket of fogs and low level clouds that will kill sea ice formation.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby diemos » Thu 26 Nov 2020, 12:20:45

http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-cont ... urrent.png

Given the current trends it seems that we'll see occasional ice free Septembers within 10 years and regular ice free Septembers within 20 year.

It's fascinating that between April and September you get the formation and then melting of 19,000 cubic kilometers of ice. For comparison the Greenland ice sheet is 2.9 million cubic kilometers and loses about 220 cubic kilometers of ice per year these days.

For the arctic there's a lot of energy coming in during the summer and a lot of energy going out in the winter.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby JuanP » Fri 27 Nov 2020, 15:44:02

As of yesterday, November 26th, there is slush all the way to the North Pole. Also, sea ice extent has been at an all time record low for this time of the year for over a month. 2020 could still be an all time record low for average yearly sea ice extent, even if it didn't have the all time record sea ice extent low in the Summer.

This means that 2021 could start with the lowest sea ice extent, thickness, and volume of any year ever! I can't wait to see how low the extent will be next Summer! Will we hit an all time record low in 2021? It wouldn't be surprising at all.

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby dissident » Fri 27 Nov 2020, 19:31:15

We are very near to a threshold. The sea ice that was there back in the 1950s was a generous excess so it did not go away during the summers except for some melt near the coasts. Now we are reaching a point where there is a winter time slush layer that can disappear super fast in the Arctic spring. This becomes a new stable regime since a thick ice layer cannot from during winter, which sets up the fast melt and so on. As warming advances the ice free period will continue to grow. The slush will still form in winter but no icebreakers will be needed throughout the year. This regime should be established likely after 2060.

One of the features of this transition is the build up of kinetic energy in the surface layer. Without a rigid ice lid, the wind-wave coupling will be there year round. This will suppress freezing since the "infinite" pool of warmer subsurface waters will be stirred and transported to the surface. So the accumulation of heat in the subsurface waters is a big deal.
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Saved by the bell.....

Unread postby Whitefang » Sat 28 Nov 2020, 11:42:31

http://sci.sdsu.edu/how_volcanoes_work/Krakatau.html

A 310 dB blast instantly deafening everybody within a 10 mile radius. Heard in Perth 1900 miles away.
That would grant humanity, mammals a few extra years of solid sea ice regrowth.
Several degrees av. temp. drop, worldwide.

Tephra from the eruption fell as far as 2,500 km downwind in the days following the eruption. However, the finest fragments were propelled high into the stratosphere, spreading outward as a broad cloud across the entire equatorial belt in only two weeks. These particles would remain suspended in the atmosphere for years, propogating farther to the north and south before finally dissipating.

stratospheric cloud of dustThe stratospheric cloud of dust also contained large volumes of sulfur dioxide gas emitted from Krakatau. These gas molecules rapidly combined with water vapor to generate sulfuric acid droplets in the high atmosphere. The resulting veil of acidic areosols and volcanic dust provided an atmospheric shield capable of reflected enough sunlight to cause global temperatures to drop by several degrees. This aerosol-rich veil also generated spectacular optical effects over 70% of the earth's surface. For several years after the 1883 eruption, the earth experienced exotic colors in the sky, halos around the sun and moon, and a spectacular array of anomalous sunsets and sunrises. Artists were fascinated by these aerial displays and captured them on canvas. The painting shown here is one such sunset captured by the artitst William Ascroft on the banks of the River Thames in London, on November 26, 1883 (Courtesy of Peter Francis).


Amazing that the signature of this short cold spell is still visable down the ocean, would the last supervolcano, near Sumatra again, still be there as well? 70.000 years ago? Loudest bang our species ever heard.
How many degrees and years for Yellowstone eruption, the big one?
A stimulus package for a broken central bank system, stalling the inevitable abrupt transition to a hot house, great reset.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supervolcano

Supervolcanoes occur when magma in the mantle rises into the crust but is unable to break through it and pressure builds in a large and growing magma pool until the crust is unable to contain the pressure. This can occur at hotspots (for example, Yellowstone Caldera) or at subduction zones (for example, Toba). Large-volume supervolcanic eruptions are also often associated with large igneous provinces, which can cover huge areas with lava and volcanic ash. These can cause long-lasting climate change (such as the triggering of a small ice age) and threaten species with extinction. The Oruanui eruption of New Zealand's Taupo Volcano (about 26,500 years ago)[2] was the world's most recent VEI-8 eruption.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taupo_Vol ... i_eruption

The Oruanui eruption of the Taupo Volcano was the world's largest known eruption in the past 70,000 years, with a Volcanic Explosivity Index of 8. It occurred around 26,500 years ago and generated approximately 430 km³ of pyroclastic fall deposits, 320 km³ of pyroclastic density current (PDC) deposits (mostly ignimbrite) and 420 km³ of primary intracaldera material, equivalent to 530 km³ of magma.[5][6][7]


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Toba

Lake Toba is the site of a supervolcanic eruption estimated at VEI 8 that occurred 69,000 to 77,000 years ago,[6][7][8] representing a climate-changing event. Recent advances in dating methods suggest a more accurate identification of 74,000 years ago as the date.[9] It is the largest-known explosive eruption on Earth in the last 25 million years. According to the Toba catastrophe theory, it had global consequences for human populations; it killed most humans living at that time and is believed to have created a population bottleneck in central east Africa and India, which affects the genetic make-up of the human worldwide population to the present.[10] More recent studies have cast doubt on this theory and found no evidence of substantial changes in population. [11]

It has been accepted that the eruption of Toba led to a volcanic winter with a worldwide decrease in temperature between 3 to 5 °C (5.4 to 9.0 °F), and up to 15 °C (27 °F) in higher latitudes. Additional studies in Lake Malawi in East Africa show significant amounts of ash being deposited from the Toba eruptions, even at that great distance, but little indication of a significant climatic effect in East Africa.[12]


Up to 5 degrees Celcius drop, that would do the job. 2800 cubic km of ashes to ashes, dust to dust.......
Could that be geoengineered? 6 billion tons of SO2 up and above, stratosphere.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toba_catastrophe_theory
Volcanic winter and global cooling computer models
Geologist Michael R. Rampino and volcanologist Stephen Self argue that the eruption caused a "brief, dramatic cooling or 'volcanic winter'", which resulted in a drop of the global mean surface temperature by 3–5 °C.[11] Evidence from Greenland ice cores indicates a 1,000-year period of low δ18O and increased dust deposition immediately following the eruption. The eruption may have caused this 1,000-year period of cooler temperatures (stadial), two centuries of which could be accounted for by the persistence of the Toba stratospheric loading.[12] Rampino and Self believe that global cooling was already underway at the time of the eruption, but that the process was slow; the Youngest Toba tuff "may have provided the extra 'kick' that caused the climate system to switch from warm to cold states".[13] Although Clive Oppenheimer rejects the hypothesis that the eruption triggered the last glaciation,[14] he agrees that it may have been responsible for a millennium of cool climate prior to the 19th Dansgaard-Oeschger event.[15]

According to Alan Robock, who has also published nuclear winter papers, the Toba eruption did not precipitate the last glacial period. However, assuming an emission of six billion tons of sulphur dioxide, his computer simulations concluded that a maximum global cooling of approximately 15 °C occurred for three years after the eruption, and that this cooling would last for decades, devastating life.[16] Because the saturated adiabatic lapse rate is 4.9 °C/1,000 m for temperatures above freezing,[17] the tree line and the snow line were around 3,000 m (9,900 ft) lower at this time.[where?] The climate recovered over a few decades, and Robock found no evidence that the 1,000-year cold period seen in Greenland ice core records had resulted from the Toba eruption. In contrast, Oppenheimer believes that estimates of a drop in surface temperature by 3–5 °C are probably too high, and he suggests that temperatures dropped only by 1 °C.[18] Robock has criticized Oppenheimer's analysis, arguing that it is based on simplistic T-forcing relationships.[19]

Despite these different estimates, scientists agree that a supervolcanic eruption of the scale at the Lake Toba Caldera must have led to very extensive ash-fall layers and injection of noxious gases into the atmosphere, with worldwide effects on weather and climate.[20] In addition, the Greenland ice core data display an abrupt climate change around this time,[21] but there is no consensus that the eruption directly generated the 1,000-year cold period seen in Greenland or triggered the last glaciation.[22]


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratosph ... _injection

One study calculated the impact of injecting sulfate particles, or aerosols, every one to four years into the stratosphere in amounts equal to those lofted by the volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991,[9] but did not address the many technical and political challenges involved in potential solar radiation management (SRM) efforts.[10] If found to be economically, environmentally and technologically viable, such injections could provide a "grace period" of up to 20 years by which time atmospheric greenhouse gas pollution would need to be reduced to safe levels.

It has been suggested that the direct delivery of precursors could be achieved using sulfide gases such as dimethyl sulfide, sulfur dioxide (SO
2), carbonyl sulfide, or hydrogen sulfide (H
2S).[5] These compounds would be delivered using artillery, aircraft (such as the high-flying F-15C)[4] or balloons, and result in the formation of compounds with the sulfate anion SO42−.[5]

According to estimates, "one kilogram of well placed sulfur in the stratosphere would roughly offset the warming effect of several hundred thousand kilograms of carbon dioxide."[11]


oh oh.....

As a result, deployment of this technology would unfortunately ensure a reduction by at least 2-5% in the growth rates of phytoplanktons, trees, and crops [18] between now and the end of the century [19]. This effect would significantly reduce human's ability to grow food and the ecosystem's ability to regenerate.


The annual cost of delivering 5 million tons of an albedo enhancing aerosol to an altitude of 20 to 30 km is estimated at US$2 billion to 8 billion.[32] Around 5 million tons of SO
2 delivered annually is predicted to sufficiently offset the expected warming over the next century.[32] SO
2 can be purchased online for as little as US$500 per ton.[33] In comparison, the annual cost estimates for climate damage or emission mitigation range from US$200 billion to 2 trillion.[32]
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Re: Saved by the bell.....

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 28 Nov 2020, 14:03:20

Whitefang wrote:http://sci.sdsu.edu/how_volcanoes_work/Krakatau.html

A 310 dB blast instantly deafening everybody within a 10 mile radius. Heard in Perth 1900 miles away.
That would grant humanity, mammals a few extra years of solid sea ice regrowth.
Several degrees av. temp. drop, worldwide.


While a super-eruption might delay things a few years all the CO2 already in the atmosphere would still be there when the dust cleared 5-7 years after the eruption. A minor blip on the scheme of things.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 28 Nov 2020, 14:08:31

JuanP wrote:As of yesterday, November 26th, there is slush all the way to the North Pole. Also, sea ice extent has been at an all time record low for this time of the year for over a month. 2020 could still be an all time record low for average yearly sea ice extent, even if it didn't have the all time record sea ice extent low in the Summer.

This means that 2021 could start with the lowest sea ice extent, thickness, and volume of any year ever! I can't wait to see how low the extent will be next Summer! Will we hit an all time record low in 2021? It wouldn't be surprising at all.

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/


If you check the interactive chart sub page you can see for yourself that 2016 was actually slushier than 2020 starting on or around November 3, 2016, which set the record sea ice lows for the month of November solidly in 2016, not 2020.
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/char ... ice-graph/
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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