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Coronavirus Investing

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 13 Nov 2020, 18:05:43

What you just saw is called a trial balloon. Have some underling put forth an idea and see what the public response is . If positive the underling has the inside track to policy but if negative he was just misinformed or speaking for himself. Seen it hundreds of times from both parties. Expect many more in the next seventy days and beyond.
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 14 Nov 2020, 09:12:25

Ok, the UK has moved up the date where they will phase out purely internal combustion engines. They moved it up to 2030. That is close! They moved the hybrid date up to 2035. There was just a post about trial balloons. If this is a trial balloon, then it is the biggest one ever.

It probably is a sort of trial balloon. I doubt that the US is going to adopt EV's at that same pace. They may not, however, be too far behind. The UK should uncover all kinds of problems that countries doing roll outs may face. It should point out how money can be made solving those things.

It may, also, be important to examine what data science is doing as this happens. The independent contractor model, using partially engaged individuals to fulfill what are essentially partial engagements through some data gathering repository, will fold nicely into the electric infrastructure. It will especially when self-driving cars become more available. And even more so when the various robots we are bound to become as infatuated with as we have been with drones come along. At each step there should be some opportunity for investment. And, I think people will be able to engage in owning and offering the services of fleets of these things. They will have tasks that can be readily enough defined, available for hire, and IOT connected.

I wonder what that means regarding oil? I still think oil will stage what a person would have to call a comeback. I don't think it is going to the moon. I don't think the industry will disappear, however. The US, at least, will hold back on escalating the transition, extending the industry's expected life span. Select oil stocks could go up well, from their current levels. They might not hit the highs from before the housing crisis, or, maybe, even come close. They could double, or triple, from here. It could be that they will go down a bit, and quintuple from some lower point they reach in the meanwhile.

I suppose it might become necessary to go full tilt, investing as if to never go back. Should we find out that is the case, there would probably still be some producers, but who knows if there would be much money to make in a boutique business? Most opportunity might be private rather than public in nature. Oil would, I guess, become as politically powerful as coal. That would be some switch.
Last edited by evilgenius on Sat 14 Nov 2020, 09:53:58, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby REAL Green » Sat 14 Nov 2020, 09:31:19

evilgenius wrote:It may, also, be important to examine what data science is doing as this happens. The independent contractor model, using partially engaged individuals to fulfill what are essentially partial engagements through some data gathering repository, will fold nicely into the electric infrastructure. It will especially when self-driving cars become more available. And even more so when the various robots we are bound to become as infatuated with as we have been with drones come along. At each step there should be some opportunity for investment. And, I think people will be able to engage in owning and offering the services of fleets of these things.


I personally feel this is techno optimistic folly. Just like investing is now a big casino racket. There is little reality behind either. Instead there is broad based decline on every human level except man's list of problems. Declining real affluence will ensure vast roll out deals will fail. I am not saying there will not be an impact and likley a beneficial one, what I am saying is the forces of diminishing returns will stop all this green tech in its tracks long before net zero and cancel ICE are a reality. But hey, I am going to buy an EV next year. I have a robust solar system with batteries already. I have the latest and greatest wood gasifier/boiler.

I am on board with a green transformation but experience is telling me this is not a transition.
It is more blind faith not physical reality. It is just repackaged religion. As for investing sure play the Ponzi scheme just know when to get your ass out. I am fully invested in physical wealth but do have paper investments too. There is no way to avoid them because they are one of the few things that brings a steady return even if that return is a mirage in regards to real wealth. The markets can vanish overnight. The value chains that power a green tech revolution are gone in a week. Go ahead and play that game but at least keep your sanity about it.
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 14 Nov 2020, 10:09:09

REAL Green wrote:
evilgenius wrote:It may, also, be important to examine what data science is doing as this happens. The independent contractor model, using partially engaged individuals to fulfill what are essentially partial engagements through some data gathering repository, will fold nicely into the electric infrastructure. It will especially when self-driving cars become more available. And even more so when the various robots we are bound to become as infatuated with as we have been with drones come along. At each step there should be some opportunity for investment. And, I think people will be able to engage in owning and offering the services of fleets of these things.


I personally feel this is techno optimistic folly. Just like investing is now a big casino racket. There is little reality behind either. Instead there is broad based decline on every human level except man's list of problems. Declining real affluence will ensure vast roll out deals will fail. I am not saying there will not be an impact and likley a beneficial one, what I am saying is the forces of diminishing returns will stop all this green tech in its tracks long before net zero and cancel ICE are a reality. But hey, I am going to buy an EV next year. I have a robust solar system with batteries already. I have the latest and greatest wood gasifier/boiler.

I am on board with a green transformation but experience is telling me this is not a transition.
It is more blind faith not physical reality. It is just repackaged religion. As for investing sure play the Ponzi scheme just know when to get your ass out. I am fully invested in physical wealth but do have paper investments too. There is no way to avoid them because they are one of the few things that brings a steady return even if that return is a mirage in regards to real wealth. The markets can vanish overnight. The value chains that power a green tech revolution are gone in a week. Go ahead and play that game but at least keep your sanity about it.


I think you can say that about things like burning garbage, or wood chips from cutting down a forest when we can't replace the wood fast enough to suit consumption, in order to power some homes or contribute to charging batteries. People will try to incorporate money losing schemes into the process. The grid allows for that sort of piggybacking. And you will encounter emotions that insist upon some ways of doing things that have been discredited. But that doesn't mean that you throw the baby out with the bathwater. Solar is still gaining in efficiency. It is cheap enough to compete now. Wind pays for itself. Neither are good enough to replace oil alone. But they can be considered as going concerns.

It is important to guard against being so skeptical that one can't change position based upon facts. Even with reasons for being skeptical still in place, the skeptic should be able to change their mind, if the preponderance of evidence suggests it. The pride of discovering some special set of facts surrounding losing schemes that people will try and foist upon the grid shouldn't change that.

And, as far as total collapse goes, which will really last longer after the SHTF, an ICE vehicle or an EV? If you have the means, you can recharge an EV for quit a while. If no one is refining gasoline or diesel, you are out of luck with an ICE. There is a whole supply line with liquid fuel that is just not a problem with electricity. It's more about how much all of the gadgets cost to get the sun to charge your EV with your own system. Why do that when you can just plug it in? But if the SHTF, you will have wanted to get into that ahead of time. Of course, if you have, you will need to watch out for all those who didn't, but realize you did.

There is a niche for such skeptical thinking that it wants to recognize certain failures even while the new order is developing outside of that skeptical stream that is successful economically. It is in how to power an EV off road. Off Road has its own demands. Just like you can run out of gas in the woods, people can run out of battery life. Everything from emergency battery packs to the ability to recharge with a simple solar set up, should come into play in the outdoors. Many of those schemes won't fit the energy based definition of winning vs. losing. They will still make good business models, since they don't have to qualify as the sort of concern that answers in such a way as to be a go to solution. They are just for emergencies, or, in some cases, as ways to extend another model. Standard battery life may not be good enough to get as deep into the woods as ICE has always done, at least at first.
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 14 Nov 2020, 12:01:04

A 300 mile range will get your EV pickup a long way into the woods. For comparison a Ford F150 diesel with a 23 gallon tank can go about 575 miles at 25 mpg (combined rating) Also a pickup bed can hold say six 250 Watt solar panels stacked or accordion hinged together that could be folded out in a pinch and give you a slow charge if the sun is out. My emergency plan is to have my 5KW Honda contractors generator and five gallon gas can in the back bed for any long trips with uncertain charging points.
And as good as the EVs are today they are rapidly getting better while ICE tech has pretty much peaked.
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 16 Nov 2020, 11:57:40

A nice uptick today based on the positive news from Maderna about their vaccine.
I took a look at what I have invested, and while a couple of choices were related to covid and the news about it, most of my choices are on established companies that pay dividends that will also likely continue to be profitable as Covid plays out.
So How am I doing? Well I have one Covid big winner and one small (for now) winner and the only loss I have is one I have not held long enough to worry about and the present loss is tiny. But if I take that one big winner out I'm only making gains like little old ladies clipping utility coupons.
I suppose I should be happy with the small but (hopefully) steady gains but of course I'll be looking for that next winner.
The search begins. :)
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby evilgenius » Tue 17 Nov 2020, 06:16:01

I'm investing in the future. I'm going into anything lithium that doesn't look like a scam. I'm going solar. I'm going industrial robots. I'm going to keep adding to those sort of positions.

I believe in switching to alternative energy. I also think there will be trouble along the way, and that oil will benefit when there is doubt. A huge amount of money will have to be spent to upgrade existing electrical infrastructure, so that all of those cars that would normally fill up in about five minutes, if they were gas engine cars, can sit plugged in all night. People will want to charge their cars at apartment complexes and houses split up into apartments, where it's less likely there will be charging points for everyone. They'll need a means for emergencies, when batteries give out away from home. Today, they would just go to the gas station. Infrastructure will need a build out.

Currently, I work at UPS. I can see how robots are coming. They will make that company hugely profitable. People cost money. Robots do too. Robots are, however, cheaper. Eventually, it will come down to that. UPS has to compete. UPS might be a good play on robots, eventually. Right now, they aren't even experimenting. That's being done by entrepreneurial companies that will sell what they come up with to UPS later. Opportunity seems a mess, what with which of those smaller companies will offer anything that works, and which will have had unproductive ideas. I'm looking at larger cap industrial robot companies that look like they can add tech to what they already do rather than create it from scratch.
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 17 Nov 2020, 08:42:04

Yes on the Lithium and yes to robots. One thing is that most of those robots will have Microsoft software in their electronic brains at least in part.
I need to research who are the best players in robot manufacturer and development. Boston Scientific is the only one that comes to mind with their robot dogs etc. As to Lithium, Tesla's Musk has made some moves to secure Lithium supplies mined in the US. So Tesla stock might be the way to go there.
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 17 Nov 2020, 12:11:32

Edit that last to Boston Dynamics not on Boston scientific. Owned by Soft bank group corp. Traded over the counter as SFTBF. Boston Scientific makes high tech medical products which might also be of interest going forward.
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 19 Nov 2020, 16:16:57

Well after having two losing days along with the rest of the market I managed to recover at least one days losses on the back of one of my vaccine bets.
I think it is looking good going through the winter into next summer as the vaccines roll out and start delivering ten million doses a day in the USA alone with more for the rest of the world both from American and other sources.
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby careinke » Tue 24 Nov 2020, 01:50:37

Just an update on my Crypto Investments. Not trying to convince anyone, do your own research. But here is what I know.

1. My ledger wallet balance has increased (as of five minutes ago): 15% this past 7 days; 53% over the last month (when I brought the subject up again on this board); and finally 174% over the last year including a 37% drop in March. I have not added any crypto to the wallet in the last year.

2. The current Bitcoin price is $18,422, with a mkt Cap of over 341 Billion, making it the 6th largest currency in the world. It also now has a larger market cap than any Bank in the world.

3. This latest bull run is from institutional buying, not retail buying, in a large part through Coinbase, a US exchange that has recently tripled in size to accommodate institutional buying. Pay pal has bought 70% of the bitcoin mined in the last month, Square and Grayscale are also heavily buying up the rest. A strong possibility there will be a bitcoin shortage very soon driving up the price.

4. Citibank predicts a $318,000 bitcoin price in 13 months. others have predicted prices ranging from $100,000 to $500,000 by the end of next year. It is expected to reach at least the mkt cap of gold (ten trillion).

5. There will never be more than 21 million bitcoin, over 18 million have already been mined, current rate of mining is 900 BTC per day, and halves every four years, the mining rate can never be raised. The next havening is in 2024. Around 4 million BTC have been "Lost" to never be recovered.

6. It is expected that ALL hedge funds will soon have at least 2% of their portfolio in Crypto.

7. Chartists, expect a HUGE move in the next week or two. it will either blow past the all time high of $19,987 or as Bitcoin has historically done, retreat about 33% then take off for a gain between 900 to 1300%. If it drops, I'll "hodl" onto my crypto and buy more.

8. Finally, mathematically, if you buy just .27 BTC you are in the top 1% of all BTC owners, forever. (I do own more than that, I could be in the top one percent of the top one percent. :)

Oh, Ether ETH, has even brighter prospects starting, well, actually few days ago.

If anyone feels like setting up a Coinbase account ask a friend who has an account to refer you, you will each get $10.00 in BTC. If you don't know anyone who has an account you can PM me. Also when you have an account, you can earn free crypto by watching 3 minute videos on different coins. Usually the equivalent of $2.00 per video. It's kind of fun to be paid to watch stuff. :)

Have a good day, I hope you don't mind my updates.
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby careinke » Tue 24 Nov 2020, 01:58:36

I wonder how much bitcoin is in the peak oil Make a donation QR code. I know I have donated to it, I hope they haven't lost the key. 8O
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 29 Nov 2020, 18:31:45

Well it is the time of the month I make investments and this month I'm going to place a small white chip on Tesla. I had been planning on getting some Microsoft and Toyota motors first but they will still be there next month ,and the month after, and Tesla maybe up quite a bit in two months. Tesla is a risky bet considering the price to earnings ratio but with a Biden administration pushing electric cars I think it will do alright for the next four years. Of course Microsoft and Toyota will also make solid profits if anybody dose but if all your bets are safe then you will get safe and small returns.
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 30 Nov 2020, 20:54:22

Well I bought a sliver of Tesla today and it promptly went down 6.5% which is a suspicious pattern every time I buy a new stock. :x
But not to worry as my other Covid related stocks had a great day so I am well up and can withstand quite a bit of downward corrections going forward. :)
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby JuanP » Tue 01 Dec 2020, 07:22:32

"Pandemic threatens to crush US Dollar and plunge US economy into double dip recession, top economist warns"
https://www.rt.com/business/508290-us-d ... pse-roach/

"The economist explained that those relapses reflect a lingering vulnerability to recession and the likelihood of aftershocks. He noted that the recent record rebound after the steepest-ever decline was just technical, with the key services sector still failing to get back on track.

The world’s largest economy may contract by one percent in the first three months of next year, according to Roach. Similar figures were earlier voiced by analysts at JPMorgan.

Roach also reiterated his gloomy prediction for the fate of the US dollar, which he expects to drop over 30 percent by the end of next year. Since the pandemic wreaked havoc in the global markets in March, the Dollar Currency Index, which measures the value of the greenback against a basket of currencies, tumbled by over 10 percent."

"Euro beats US Dollar as world's most used currency, SWIFT says"
https://www.rt.com/business/507263-euro ... -globally/

"The US dollar has lost to the euro as the number one currency for global transactions for the first time in nearly eight years, said the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT).
According to Bloomberg citing monthly SWIFT data, the last time the euro was in the number one spot was February 2013.

Data from SWIFT, which handles cross-border international payments for more than 11,000 financial institutions in 200 countries, showed the European Union’s single currency was the most used one last month. It was followed by the greenback, then the British pound, and the Japanese yen. In the fifth spot was the Canadian dollar, which has moved China's yuan to sixth place."

"Statistics showed that 37.8 percent of the SWIFT cash transfers were completed in euros in October, rising six percent from about a year ago and marking the highest level since February 2013. The use of the US dollar dropped to 37.64 percent, down 4.6 percentage points.

The US currency has weakened more than 11 percent from its March peak, based on a Bloomberg index that measures it against a basket of major peers. Analysts are predicting its valuation to drop further."

What a difference a year makes. If this trend continues it doesn't bode well for Americans' savings and retirement investments and accounts. I got out of the US dollar years ago, and I have no regrets. Moved them all to silver and gold over a five year period. I am not interested in earning money, though, just holding on to what we already have is enough for my wife and I to cover our expenses for the rest of our lives.
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby REAL Green » Tue 01 Dec 2020, 07:51:24

JuanP wrote:What a difference a year makes. If this trend continues it doesn't bode well for Americans' savings and retirement investments and accounts. I got out of the US dollar years ago, and I have no regrets. Moved them all to silver and gold over a five year period. I am not interested in earning money, though, just holding on to what we already have is enough for my wife and I to cover our expenses for the rest of our lives.


Please JuanP this is global and your anti-American blinders show just of delusional you are. Everything is binary for you so you can't know the truth of things. You can spit out facts or reference things that sounds good per your agenda but you have no clue about reality. You always talk about how secure you are in Miami Beach but this is about the worst place in the world to be. An overpopulated beach front condo is all you have. You talk about farms and gardens but I doubt you are ever at one. The dollar and the American economy is going down the drain no worse than any other probably better than many. So what. Join the human race that is plunging into decline and collpase.
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 01 Dec 2020, 12:28:42

As this is the covid-19 investment thread I try to stick to what investments are related to covid and leave market crash or boom opinions over on the stock market crash thread. Hopefully by next fall this thread will become obsolete and we can finish it with a summary of wins and losses received.
Might have to start a Biden/Harris administration investment thread as that will be topical longer. I hope!
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 01 Dec 2020, 16:43:47

vtsnowedin wrote:As this is the covid-19 investment thread I try to stick to what investments are related to covid and leave market crash or boom opinions over on the stock market crash thread. Hopefully by next fall this thread will become obsolete and we can finish it with a summary of wins and losses received.
Might have to start a Biden/Harris administration investment thread as that will be topical longer. I hope!

I hope you're right re when this will become obsolete. But between the number of opinions / stories I see talking about vaccines getting to the American mainstream as late as 3Q AND the number of US anti-vaxxers unwilling to cooperate because (insert your choice of anti-science rhetoric or conspiracy theory rhetoric here), I'm not as optimistic as this actually being BEHIND us by next fall in the US as I'd like.

OTOH, in much of southeast Asia and other places where science is respected, hopefully it will be very much behind us.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 01 Dec 2020, 19:22:04

Well if I and all of my family get vaccinated ASAP it will be behind us and if some anti vacxers are running around still getting sick and dying I could care less.
I will get cross (being the grumpy old man I am) about having to pay the hospital bills for those stupid people but I'm sure that cannot be avoided.
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby Pops » Tue 01 Dec 2020, 20:19:38

We'd been in WA 3 years when the pandemic broke out, we'd committed to our granddaughter we'd stay until she transferred after finishing her sophomore year in college. It was a hard decision to move across country in a pandemic. But selling out on the west coast, once again to hunker down in MO seemed like the right move. We thought we would get hit because the market would surely crash before we could sell. But we discounted the lengths the gov would go to keep things afloat with low rates. We made about double the net we'd planned back in December 2019. The market was just mad. Getting the deal closed was difficult, everyone involved was backlogged and we'd pushed the price as far as it would go, had to drop $5k to meet the appraisal, a first in our dozen or so deals. But instead of $50k or so net, we made right at $100k! WooHa is right!

So we now have a $67k house in SW MO. With a $30k renovation budget we'll stay busy until my regular work starts again... hopefully. I figure we can get maybe $125-140k with a market exactly like it stands right now after we trick it out. OTOH, the market can take a good hit —say a 30% drop— and we'd not lose. If we'd have stayed in WA a 30% drop would be $100k+

I fully expect the republicans will revert to form (after their 4 year, $6 Trillion (?) spending spree behind the only bankrupt casino operator ever) and rediscover their frugal side now that taxes for the 1% are permanently cut. Anyway, there will be no further bailouts, stimulants, foreclosure/eviction forbearance, etc. GDP is off 3% I think, unemployment will be up again after the naked-faced holidays and the economic chicks will surely come home to roost will they not?

We have a tidy amount in the bank, nothing to brag about but a heart attack, a new roof and a set of snow tire's worth. I generally don't worry about the dollar, everybody wants it, but this time (and to this minute) we're proving that we are just as liable to eleck a whackadoo as the next banana republic and maybe even as susceptible to a coup, kinda makes our dollars not so safe I'm thinking. Anyway, since I don't work at nanosecond speed there is no use in me trying to go against the machines in the casino, I mean stock market. Ditto metals, which are certainly heading back down.

So I guess it's my .8% interest CD and all the insulation I can stuff in this old shack for now.
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