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Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 04 Oct 2020, 13:22:28

REAL Green wrote:I doubt that your view is important to a mag that is promoting low tech strategies to a world in decline. I think a better point is anyone who would critique the article in terms of modern forestry management is missing the point. I will also mention I heat with wood. I use a wood gasifier. It heats my potable water, my house, and my shop. I burn through 8 cords a year. This use would be more except that the gasifier is very efficient. I cut my own wood with chainsaw and a log splitter attachment to my skid steer. I have a 2 Stihl saws one short 16” bar and one longer with a 24” bar. I have been cutting and heating my home since 92. I think I have ample experience with the subject. I posted the article as a interesting lok at past biomass technology nothing more.

I've been cutting wood and heating my house with it on my land sense 1968. I care not what a magazine thinks of my opinion and I find their proposition to be ridiculous. That you are still using Stihl saws instead of Husqvarnas shows you still have much to learn Grasshopper. :)
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby REAL Green » Sun 04 Oct 2020, 13:43:09

vtsnowedin wrote:
REAL Green wrote:I doubt that your view is important to a mag that is promoting low tech strategies to a world in decline. I think a better point is anyone who would critique the article in terms of modern forestry management is missing the point. I will also mention I heat with wood. I use a wood gasifier. It heats my potable water, my house, and my shop. I burn through 8 cords a year. This use would be more except that the gasifier is very efficient. I cut my own wood with chainsaw and a log splitter attachment to my skid steer. I have a 2 Stihl saws one short 16” bar and one longer with a 24” bar. I have been cutting and heating my home since 92. I think I have ample experience with the subject. I posted the article as a interesting lok at past biomass technology nothing more.

I've been cutting wood and heating my house with it on my land sense 1968. I care not what a magazine thinks of my opinion and I find their proposition to be ridiculous. That you are still using Stihl saws instead of Husqvarnas shows you still have much to learn Grasshopper. :)


I had a Husky and it leaked fuel and never could keep a chain on. I had a husky chop saw that lost compression. I do like Husky I just think they don't hold up.

Nothing like wood heat and the enjoyment of collecting firewood. As far as the article I posted I love low tech and historic low tech strategies that I like to think can be enhanced and leveraged in a hybrid way with the modern. You must be slowing down on the wood if you have been heating since 68 :-D. I am mid 50's and slowing down.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 04 Oct 2020, 14:02:17

I use 1968 as the year I did more of the work then my father did as he was 72 at the time and managed to get hit by a falling widowmaker and wore a leg cast for most of that summer. We skidded the logs with horses then and the Homelite saw had a button beside the handle you pushed with your thumb a couple of times each cut to pump the oil out to the bar. One quart of thirty weight oil to five gallons of gas. He had an old McCulloch saw in the tool room with about a 40 inch bar and a handle on the tip end for the second man to hold that he had used between WW2 and the Korean war. He stopped using it when my half brother got drafted to Korea.
I have a much better tool set today with a John deer tractor with grapple attachment to pick blocks up level to the beam of the wood splitter. I still use up to ten cords a year but the wife is pushing for a more modern heating system to save my shoulders.
I'm thinking electric heat pump with a bank of solar panels to feed it and charge the electric plug in vehicles that are in my future. :)
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby REAL Green » Sun 04 Oct 2020, 14:31:10

vtsnowedin wrote:I use 1968 as the year I did more of the work then my father did as he was 72 at the time and managed to get hit by a falling widowmaker and wore a leg cast for most of that summer. We skidded the logs with horses then and the Homelite saw had a button beside the handle you pushed with your thumb a couple of times each cut to pump the oil out to the bar. One quart of thirty weight oil to five gallons of gas. He had an old McCulloch saw in the tool room with about a 40 inch bar and a handle on the tip end for the second man to hold that he had used between WW2 and the Korean war. He stopped using it when my half brother got drafted to Korea.
I have a much better tool set today with a John deer tractor with grapple attachment to pick blocks up level to the beam of the wood splitter. I still use up to ten cords a year but the wife is pushing for a more modern heating system to save my shoulders.
I'm thinking electric heat pump with a bank of solar panels to feed it and charge the electric plug in vehicles that are in my future. :)


Nice story!

At the moment I am using my 12 pannels with battery to run my Daikin mini-split. This heats and cools. I have been using my Daikin with solar most of the summer for cooling and now probably for a month with heating. I use it during the day with solar except in poor conditions. At night the Daikin is on grid power. I have transfer switches to switch between grid and solar. I also have 2 ceramic low watt wall heaters I turn on with solar. They run on 500 watts. It is a great way to use solar to heat certain areas of the house.

I hear you with the firewood body abuse. I am having my 13 year old boys starting to help me. I hope by the time they are 15 they can do the heavy lifting. I will then kick back some. I think heat pumps are a great idea but for now my system now will do. The Diakin with solar when temps are not too low. When temps drop lower around November I will kick on my Heatmaster https://heatmasterss.com/our-products/g-series/. When it gets really cold I kick in the fireplace insert also for the wife in her living area.
https://www.hearthstonestoves.com/product/clydesdale/. I am almost looking forward to winter. LOL
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 04 Oct 2020, 14:58:43

You guys make me think sailing South for winter is a GREAT idea! :-D
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 04 Oct 2020, 15:02:26

I remember being about 12 to 13 and given the job of splitting the blocks from a beech log with hammer and wedges. I was shown how to set them tip end up and to look for the the weakest section or a starter crack (don't waste your time boy trying to split through a knot.). Of course within a few blocks I missed with the hammer and overshot the top of the steel wedge which stops the wooden handle and lets the steel head carry on and snap the handle. You then get the lesson in how to shave down the end of the handle and reinstall it in the hammer head. I started with about a 36" handle and by the end of the log was down to about 20 inches losing about 3 inches per miss.
I also managed to not look at both sides of a block and try to split through a knot and bury two wedges flush with the top and one in the side crack with no result and had to learn how to beat them sideways to get them out for another try.
The fact I can remember the exact spot those blocks laid and the species of the tree tells you how well those lessons sunk in. I still have that splitting maul on about it's fortieth handle and one of the three wedges.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 04 Oct 2020, 15:09:27

Newfie wrote:You guys make me think sailing South for winter is a GREAT idea! :-D

Not having a sail boat that is not an option. Even if I install and automatic heat system that would protect the house while we were away I could not get Grand Ma further south then the perfect princess grand daughter in Maryland. :)
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Azothius » Fri 23 Oct 2020, 08:11:09

Wild weather is wreaking havoc on crops around the world, sending their prices skyrocketing.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/business ... -inflation
Wild weather is wreaking havoc on crops around the world, sending their prices skyrocketing. On wheat farms in the U.S. and Russia, it’s a drought that’s ruining harvests. The soybean fields of Brazil are bone dry too, touched by little more than the occasional shower. In Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia, the problem is the exact opposite. Torrential downpours are causing flooding in rice fields and stands of oil palm trees.

The sudden emergence of these supply strains is a big blow to a global economy that has been struggling to regain its footing after the shock of the Covid-19 lockdowns. As prices soar on everything from sugar to cooking oil, millions of working-class families that had already been forced to scale back food purchases in the pandemic are being thrust deeper into financial distress. What’s more, these increases threaten to push up broader inflation indexes in some countries and could make it harder for central bankers to keep providing monetary stimulus to shore up growth

The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index, a gauge of nine crop prices, has risen 28% since late April to its highest level in more than four years. Wheat earlier this week was the most expensive since 2014. “The fundamentals have changed dramatically since May,” said Don Roose, president of brokerage U.S. Commodities in Iowa. “The weather is bubbling to the top, and we have demand chugging in a bull market.

The fallout from the pandemic means that the United Nations was already warning of a worst-case scenario in which about a tenth of the world’s population would go hungry this year. Things could become more dire if grocery costs keep rising and even more people can’t afford to eat.

“It’s looking very bleak,” said David Beasley, executive director at the World Food Programme, the hunger-fighting group that won the 2020 Nobel Peace Prize. Declining currencies in food-importing nations, the threat of more economic shutdowns and struggles for farmers to expand production could all compound the problem, he said.


Climate scientists have long warned that an increase in unpredictable and extreme weather patterns would be a growing threat to crop production and food security. Now, we are experiencing what it means to be living in a climate-disrupted world as wildfires blaze across the U.S. West, hurricane season grows more ferocious and forecasters say that 2020 could be the world’s hottest year on record



A Living Nightmare: Defeating the Locust Plague of 2020
(this article is from earlier in the year - see up date below)
https://www.bayer.com/en/news-stories/a ... ue-of-2020

Scientists note climate change as a main driver of the current outbreak. Severe weather conditions including heat extremes, strong cyclones and unusually heavy rains in the Arabian Peninsula are creating ideal conditions for adult populations to explode.


A worldwide locust upsurge is hitting countries around the globe with East Africa and the Horn of Africa seeing the worst outbreak in decades – destroying hectares of farmland and putting millions at risk of hunger and famine.

Ravenous locust swarm clouds more than three times the size of New York City descended in northeast Kenya, which is battling its worst infestation in 70 years. In the Wachile region of Ethiopia, locust swarms forced more than 15,000 people to evacuate their homes in May. Swarms travelling from Pakistan into India made their way to the northern states for the first time since 1962. Alerts were issued in South America in late June as a 9 mile2 swarm that entered Argentina from Paraguay headed towards Uruguay. Swarms continue to form in Yemen with breeding likely to prevail throughout August and extend to the Red Sea Coastal plains. Amid the COVID-19 crisis, farmers in some of the world’s most impoverished regions are fighting to stop locusts from decimating vital crops and grazing pastures and leaving vast populations food insecure. Without immediate action, in East Africa 4.9 million people could face starvation




Desert Locust situation update 19 October 2020

http://www.fao.org/ag/locusts/en/info/info/index.html

Swarms continue in Ethiopia and Somalia

More swarms are forming from current breeding in Ethiopia and a new generation of laying has started in central Somalia and eastern Ethiopia, which could be supplemented by swarms coming from Yemen. Breeding is also underway on the Red Sea coastal plains. Consequently, additional swarm migrations and further increases in locust numbers can be expected but the situation is less dramatic than one year ago and countries are better prepared.

• ETHIOPIA. Hopper bands are slowly declining in the Afar region of the northeast due to control operations and fledging. However, numerous immature adult groups and swarms continue to form and are present, albeit slightly less than the previous week, in the northern Rift Valley on the western side along the edge of the Amhara/Tigray highlands as far north as Mekele and on the eastern side in the Harar Highlands to Jijiga. Some swarms were seen near Addis Ababa and in the Ogaden south of Degeh Bur. A few of the swarms are mature and could breed. Ground and aerial control operations are in progress. More swarms are expected to move to the Somali region, including the Ogaden, where they are likely to mature and lay eggs in favourable areas while other immature swarms could continue southwards.

• SOMALIA. Mainly immature and a few mature swarms are arriving in the northwest between Boroma and Hargeisa. In the northeast, an increasing number of mature adult groups and swarms are moving south, reaching Mudug and Galgaduud with egg-laying occurring north of Dusa Mareb. Hatching and band formation will occur while some swarms could continue south to Hiiran. Biocontrol operations are in progress.

• KENYA. A few small maturing swarms persist in Samburu county, and local breeding could eventually occur in the northwest with the Short Rains. There is a low risk that a few swarms currently in Ethiopia may arrive in the northeast about mid-November while the next generation of swarms that form in eastern Ethiopia and central Somalia are likely to arrive from mid-December onwards.

• ERITREA. Hopper groups are present in the central highlands northwest of Asmat, on the Red Sea coastal plains near Sheib and Mehimet, and in the western lowlands near Kerkebet. Ground control operations are in progress. Adult groups are likely to form and more breeding is expected on the Red Sea coast. Swarms may arrive from northern Ethiopia.

• SUDAN. Hopper bands continue in the east between the Atbara River and the Red Sea Hills mixed with some groups of mature adults, some of which are laying eggs near the Atbara River. Control operations continue. Mature solitarious adults are present in the northeast and laying eggs in a few places along Wadi Oko/Diib.

• YEMEN. Breeding is ending in the interior where infestations have declined due to control operations, migration, no significant rains for the past month and drying conditions; hence, only a few late-instar hopper bands remain near Al Hazm. A few swarms from the interior may appear on the southern coast. More immature adult groups and swarms are forming on the northern Red Sea coastal near Suq Abs from local breeding. Control operations are in progress.

• SAUDI ARABIA. Late instar hopper bands are present on the southern coastal plains of the Red Sea north of Jizan where immature adults are forming groups. Mid to late instar bands are present further north between Qunfidah and Lith that are likely to form immature adult groups. Ground control operations continue.

The situation remains calm in West Africa and southwest Asia where no significant developments will occur.



Weather Woes Continue for Farmers
Snow Complicates Harvest of Derecho-Damaged Corn

(what makes this more significant is that it follows upon the severe weather of 2019 in the US grain belt, with record rainfall and flooding which hampered crop production)


https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/a ... st-derecho

ANKNEY, Iowa (DTN) -- Add snow squall to the list of historic and freak weather events that have plagued farmers in Iowa and other states in 2020.

Up to 9 inches of heavy, wet snow fell across the central one-third of Iowa on Oct. 19, setting records for the date. The heaviest snow fell from Harlan to Polk City and Ankeny. Most snow amounts ranged from 3 to 5 inches.

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist Bryce Anderson said mid-October snow isn't uncommon in the Upper Midwest, but a snow squall is very rare in central Iowa this time of year. A snow squall is a short burst of heavy snowfall that can cause sudden whiteouts and gusty winds.

"It's unfortunate the heaviest snow band pretty much tracked where farmers were (the hardest hit) by the Aug. 10 derecho," Anderson said.
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Another world record wheat harvest forecast

Unread postby jawagord » Fri 23 Oct 2020, 10:38:59

World wheat crop tips record: AMIS

The net 4.8Mt increase lifts the forecast for the world 2020-21 wheat crop to a record 764.9Mt, pipping by just a few million tonnes the previous records set in 2019-20 and 2017-18 (chart 1).

This month’s upward revisions included Australia and the EU, both up 2.2Mt from last month’s estimate, a 1Mt lift for the Russian Federation, and Ukraine up 500,000t.

Utilisation in 2020-21 is expected to grow at a slightly faster pace than projected earlier, supported by stronger feed use in China. Trade in 2020-21 (July-June) is also expected to grow following brisk import demand, especially by China and Egypt.

Stocks ending in 2021 are lifted by almost 3Mt following this month’s upwards revisions in the EU, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine.


https://www.graincentral.com/markets/wo ... cord-amis/
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Re: Another world record wheat harvest forecast

Unread postby Azothius » Sat 24 Oct 2020, 08:24:32

[quote="jawagord"][i]World wheat crop tips record: AMIS

The net 4.8Mt increase lifts the forecast for the world 2020-21 wheat crop to a record 764.9Mt, pipping by just a few million tonnes the previous records set in 2019-20 and 2017-18 (chart 1).

Thank you, Jawa. Looking into the discrepancy....
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 18 Nov 2020, 08:25:45

'Famines of biblical proportions' feared in 2021 amid COVID-19 pandemic, UN food agency warns

https://6abc.com/hunger-2021-famines-of ... s/7984522/
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The head of the World Food Program says the Nobel Peace Prize has given the U.N. agency a spotlight and megaphone to warn world leaders that next year is going to be worse than this year, and without billions of dollars "we are going to have famines of biblical proportions in 2021."
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 18 Nov 2020, 15:57:47

Has there ever been a year without a famine of Biblical proportions somewhere on the planet? These days you can ship food from the haves to the have-nots except where warfare or other politics prevents it.
I expect there will be plenty of food next year but as usual there will be problems in distributing it and as usual some people will starve while others will get even more obese.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 18 Nov 2020, 16:41:10

vtsnowedin wrote:Has there ever been a year without a famine of Biblical proportions somewhere on the planet? These days you can ship food from the haves to the have-nots except where warfare or other politics prevents it.
I expect there will be plenty of food next year but as usual there will be problems in distributing it and as usual some people will starve while others will get even more obese.

And as usual, the purveyers of instadoom will claim it means we're ALL DOOMED any time now. 8)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 18 Nov 2020, 17:51:58

Reading Dohboi's link the WFP leader is looking for 15 billion for next year. Now considering that congress is haggling between 1.2 and 3.5 TRILLION dollars as the next stimulus package I think they could cover 15 billion as a foot note and nobody other then the starving people would notice.
I did note that most of the countries listed as having problems are at war either with a neighbor or internally. Perhaps war is the real problem. ??
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 18 Nov 2020, 22:36:29

Thanks, vt... it's all just too sad and pathetic and sometimes to even deal

they're lying...and they know it

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E9eGNfLwigU
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Yonnipun » Thu 19 Nov 2020, 08:18:18

There is no climate chaos , also no peak oil in the nearest future. I have been lurking on this board for 15 years now and I do not belive in the doom and gloom scenarious any more. All of those predictions have been nothing more than a fairy tale. Here is the deal - we have and use more oil than ever before, the ocean level has not rised a single millimetre , the methan dragons and clathrate guns have not cooked the earth. All of those stories turned out to be just fairytails.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 19 Nov 2020, 08:53:35

Yonnipun,

Do you forsee any downturn or stabilization in population?
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