Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Saudi Aramco Has a New Perspective on Peak Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 15 Nov 2019, 20:14:41

mmasters wrote:"The release of the Saudi Aramco IPO prospectus is putting a fresh spotlight on a big question: the date when global oil demand will peak.

The document released over the weekend includes estimates that demand will grow until around 2035 before leveling off, but that the inflection point could occur by the late 2020s."

https://www.axios.com/saudi-aramco-ipo- ... b2b58.html

So Saudi Aramco is saying 10-15 years....


FINALLY!!! Maybe a REAL peak oil! Sure...it isn't from scarcity, but still, the congregation can rejoice and sing and pretend that any peak oil reason was good enough for them all along!
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 5453
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26

Re: Saudi Aramco Has a New Perspective on Peak Oil

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 15 Nov 2019, 23:21:31

mmasters wrote:"The release of the Saudi Aramco IPO prospectus is putting a fresh spotlight on a big question: the date when global oil demand will peak.

The document released over the weekend includes estimates that demand will grow until around 2035 before leveling off, but that the inflection point could occur by the late 2020s."

https://www.axios.com/saudi-aramco-ipo- ... b2b58.html

So Saudi Aramco is saying 10-15 years....

You did see that the statement was re oil DEMAND, right?

Of course, let's remember that the traditional issue re "peak oil" was always doomers claiming SUPPLY would be too little, leading to economic "collapse", etc.

Now the issue is when demand will peak, which seems to imply that there should be sufficient supply for a long time. Not that we won't need lots of oil for a growing demand for petrochemicals globally for many decades yet.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 8955
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 21:26:42

Re: Saudi Aramco Has a New Perspective on Peak Oil

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 15 Nov 2019, 23:27:59

Plantagenet wrote:Image
Rush hour traffic in New Delhi, India
Cheers!

What I don't understand is how people can see the amount of cars and trucks burning gas and diesel every day and ponder that EVERY GALLON of such fuel burned produces roughly 20 lbs. of CO2, and then claim that humans can't possibly affect the climate, ergo AGW is a hoax. Oh, and think about the sheer magnitude of growth of such cars over the past 6 or so decades, and what that does to the numbers.

Of course, I also don't understand how high school graduates often can't make change if the cash register goes down, because they don't know that subtraction is the necessary operation. So there's that. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 8955
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 21:26:42

Re: Saudi Aramco Has a New Perspective on Peak Oil

Unread postby mmasters » Sat 16 Nov 2019, 01:16:49

AdamB wrote:
mmasters wrote:"The release of the Saudi Aramco IPO prospectus is putting a fresh spotlight on a big question: the date when global oil demand will peak.

The document released over the weekend includes estimates that demand will grow until around 2035 before leveling off, but that the inflection point could occur by the late 2020s."

https://www.axios.com/saudi-aramco-ipo- ... b2b58.html

So Saudi Aramco is saying 10-15 years....


FINALLY!!! Maybe a REAL peak oil! Sure...it isn't from scarcity, but still, the congregation can rejoice and sing and pretend that any peak oil reason was good enough for them all along!

Yes finally, maybe a real answer after all these years and it showed up as an article buried deep in my personalized google news feed lol.
User avatar
mmasters
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2239
Joined: Sun 16 Apr 2006, 03:00:00
Location: Mid-Atlantic

Re: Saudi Aramco Has a New Perspective on Peak Oil

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 16 Nov 2019, 12:36:35

Outcast_Searcher wrote:What I don't understand is how people can see the amount of cars and trucks burning gas and diesel every day and ponder that EVERY GALLON of such fuel burned produces roughly 20 lbs. of CO2, and then claim that humans can't possibly affect the climate, ergo AGW is a hoax. Oh, and think about the sheer magnitude of growth of such cars over the past 6 or so decades, and what that does to the numbers.


Lest we forget every gallon of gasoline or diesel burnt also produces roughly one gallon of water in the form of water vapor that condenses out as dew or precipitation at some point. This almost balances because as petroleum is extracted from the ground the void spaces usually fill with water. Even if the water is not injected to stimulate production the underlying water table rises to fill the void spaces. In its own weird way burning hydrocarbons releases not just the fossil carbon collected by ancient plants, it also releases the water used by those plants to manufacture sugars and fats.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
User avatar
Tanada
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 16044
Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA

Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 09 Nov 2020, 21:21:44

For those sick to death of politics lets try getting back to the focus of this website, shall we?
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
User avatar
Tanada
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 16044
Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA

Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby Subjectivist » Mon 09 Nov 2020, 21:31:08

Peak oil could come in 2028 due to pandemic

James Osborne 11/2/2020
3 minutes

WASHINGTON — The economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic is suppressing oil demand to such a degree that some energy analysts are questioning whether it will accelerate society's transition from the fossil fuel.
a crane in the dark © Elizabeth Conley, Houston Chronicle / Staff Photographer

Analysis released Monday by Rystad Energy, an independent research firm in Norway, predicts that oil demand will now peak at 102 million barrels per day in 2028, two years earlier than they predicted before the virus struck.

Loading...

Load Error

"The slow recovery will permanently affect global oil demand levels," said Artyom Tchen, senior oil markets analyst at Rystad. "The lockdowns will stunt economic recovery in the short-term and in the long-term and the pandemic will also leave behind a legacy of behavioral changes that will also affect oil use."

RELATED: On Gulf Coast, is carbon storage the next big thing?

Right now, global oil demand is averaging about 89.3 million barrels per day, a 10 percent decline from last year. And Rystad is predicting that it won't rebound to those levels until 2023, as government lockdowns intensify with rising infection rates ahead of winter in the northern hemisphere.

And there could be longer term shifts in energy use, Rystad says, as businesses rely more on teleconferencing platforms for meetings and tourists avoid airplanes for their vacations.

At the same time, industry and governments in Europe and Asia are not backing off their clean energy goals, despite the economic fallout.

Electric vehicle sales are expected to reach 14 percent of total global car sales by 2025, reaching 80 percent by mid-century, Rystad said.

"The pandemic will greatly alter the peak oil demand reckoning moment, both in terms of timing and volumes," Tchen wrote. "This will help oil substitution gain speed and inevitably take global consumption to lower levels quicker, hand in hand with the energy transition."


https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets ... r-BB1aCG13
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
User avatar
Subjectivist
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4559
Joined: Sat 28 Aug 2010, 07:38:26
Location: Northwest Ohio

Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 09 Nov 2020, 21:42:40

Tanada wrote:For those sick to death of politics lets try getting back to the focus of this website, shall we?


With the peak oilers hiding under their respective rocks, the focus of this website IS politics, climate change, and idiot economic ideas from parrots and StarvingPuutyTats!

The peak oil question has been answered. A couple of times now, and it is good to see it has been tackled by the folks who understand this issue, and within the appropriate context.

What, exactly, might the amateurs even have to offer nowadays? Have the remnants of TOD even gotten themselves the data available to answer this question, or are the Peak Barrel folks still fumbling around fitting bell shaped curves to everything in sight?
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 5453
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26

Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 09 Nov 2020, 22:17:08

"Real peak oil" started back in 1979.

https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/20 ... k-oil.html
User avatar
ralfy
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5175
Joined: Sat 28 Mar 2009, 11:36:38
Location: The Wasteland

Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 09 Nov 2020, 23:34:08

ralfy wrote:"Real peak oil" started back in 1979.

https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/20 ... k-oil.html


Efficiency increases because of the Iranian revolution in 1979 was not peak oil. However, 1979 was one of the several global peak oils on volume that have happened in the past half century.
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 5453
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26

Previous

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: mustang19 and 33 guests