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Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 28 Oct 2020, 20:59:28

The arctic circle and all the area north of it is indeed a tough place to spend the winter. I note that the Thule weather forecast notes the times for moon rise and moon set as other then a bit of star light on clear nights that is what they have to work with. Modern housing and electric lights deal with it somewhat but imagine if you were a Lapp or Inuit living in the traditional ways. Herding reindeer on skies in the dark for six months? Amazing that they ever lived that far north at all.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby JuanP » Wed 28 Oct 2020, 23:22:19

dissident wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
dissident wrote:

The sea ice/slush is going to disappear to be replaced with a regional greenhouse regime. The Arctic will flip from a frozen state at the surface to a year round above zero regime.
I very much doubt that. You might get the climate we are used to in the mid latitudes (ie. 40 -50 degrees North) moved to the Arctic but that would still give you long cold winters and mild to hot summers. Add in the length of the winter nights above 80 Deg. N and it is still "gonna be wicked cold" for seven months of the year.
I live at 44 degrees North. My heating season is 225 days long and mid winter temps can and do drop to -40 degrees and 72 inches of snow is average. The ground is snow covered typically from mid November to the first of April with one year in ten extending to May first.
That would be quite a change to give to the arctic ecosystem but it is not year round above zero C. temperatures.


Doubt based on what? Gut feelings?

Just because you never did any analysis and research of scientific literature on the subject does not make you qualified to fob off physical processes and assert a perpetual current state. One that has clearly not always been there given the fossil record.

Try harder.


The oceans' surfaces don't freeze at mid latitudes. One of you is talking about sea surface temperatures and the other about land temperatures and conditions. How does a pond or a lake freezing in Vermont compare to the Arctic Ocean? To me, it sounds like you are talking about two different things. Antarctica is different because it is a continent.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby evilgenius » Thu 29 Oct 2020, 05:46:00

The rate of refreezing is very slow compared to previous years. I wonder if that will impact the ice maximum, when the time comes? Usually, right about Dec 1, previous graph's lines have come to the same place. For the current era, that has meant meeting at about the lower third, like a standard deviation or two below the average curve for all years on record. It would take some doing for the ice to get there from where it is right now. It's not so far away that it can't. It is interesting.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 29 Oct 2020, 06:27:28

vtsnowedin wrote:The arctic circle and all the area north of it is indeed a tough place to spend the winter. I note that the Thule weather forecast notes the times for moon rise and moon set as other then a bit of star light on clear nights that is what they have to work with. Modern housing and electric lights deal with it somewhat but imagine if you were a Lapp or Inuit living in the traditional ways. Herding reindeer on skies in the dark for six months? Amazing that they ever lived that far north at all.


That is a bit over the top consider the places people live are all on land and the ocean edge is about 75 north, not 90 north. Not saying I would want to live in a place where December daylight periods are limited to three hours around the Solstice. However it never gets dark 24/7 at the coast of the Arctic Ocean so describing the climate as six months of darkness is inaccurate in the main description of living conditions.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 29 Oct 2020, 07:23:28

Tanada wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:The arctic circle and all the area north of it is indeed a tough place to spend the winter. I note that the Thule weather forecast notes the times for moon rise and moon set as other then a bit of star light on clear nights that is what they have to work with. Modern housing and electric lights deal with it somewhat but imagine if you were a Lapp or Inuit living in the traditional ways. Herding reindeer on skies in the dark for six months? Amazing that they ever lived that far north at all.


That is a bit over the top consider the places people live are all on land and the ocean edge is about 75 north, not 90 north. Not saying I would want to live in a place where December daylight periods are limited to three hours around the Solstice. However it never gets dark 24/7 at the coast of the Arctic Ocean so describing the climate as six months of darkness is inaccurate in the main description of living conditions.

There is quite a bit of land well above the Arctic circle including most of Greenland , much of the Canadian archipelago, and a long strip of Siberia. That two and a half hours of daylight on the circle is just the sun peaking over the horizon casting the longest shadows in the world and as you move north you get full darkness for increasing numbers of day. Alert Canada more then halfway towards the pole from the circle goes 110 days with no sun at all.Lapland in Norway and Sweden is also well above the circle. Not total darkness round the clock where people live but an awful lot of dark and cold.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby REAL Green » Thu 29 Oct 2020, 07:48:11

“Brave new arctic”
https://theecologist.org/2020/oct/29/brave-new-arctic

“The Arctic Ocean’s refreeze has slowed to a crawl following record Siberian fires, polar temperatures topping 100 degrees Fahrenheit, and near record low sea ice extent in September. At this time of year, in Russia’s far north Laptev Sea, the sun hovers near the horizon during the day. It generates little warmth as the region heads towards months of polar night. By late September or early October, the sea’s shallow waters should be a vast, frozen expanse. But not this year. For the first time since records have been kept, open water still laps this coastline in late October, though snow is already falling there… New Arctic. While weather patterns at the top of the world vary, the overall changes are dramatic and occurring so rapidly that the region may be entering a “new Arctic” climate regime, says Laura Landrum, an oceanographer with Colorado’s National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The Arctic is transitioning from a mostly frozen state into an entirely new climate — and impacting the entire planet, she said. Meier calls the Arctic the “bellweather of climate change” because it’s a place where a small bump in temperature has real impact: a change from -.5°C to .5°C (31°F to 33°F) is the difference between ice skating and swimming, he said, while a couple of degrees warmer in Florida may not even be noticed…Many factors are colliding that could speed massive melt. New feedback loops continue to emerge, compounding and accelerating changes. For example, early climate models didn’t factor in methane — a potent greenhouse gas — that’s pouring into the atmosphere from melting permafrost. The tundra is now thought to be emitting 300-600 million tons of carbon yearly, the equivalent of driving between 65 and 129 million cars for a year. Likewise, thick ice that withstood high winds and storms decades ago, now is thin and can be severely damaged by such storms — amplifying one-off extreme weather events. Then there’s “Atlantification,” the increasing intrusion of salty, temperate Atlantic Ocean waters into chillier Arctic seas.”
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Flipping arctic

Unread postby Whitefang » Sun 01 Nov 2020, 04:58:15

Dissident wrote:

The sea ice/slush is going to disappear to be replaced with a regional greenhouse regime. The Arctic will flip from a frozen state at the surface to a year round above zero regime.


I do think, based on work of paleoclimatologists, that Diss is right.
Climate models point to a phase shift as well, rain moving North, deserts like the Sahara jumping club med.
Yes, Siberia/North-Asia will still cool and be frozen solid, the other pole.
Barren, Canadian shield with GIS and Baffin will likely be the new cold pole.
A total new world climate system with two cold poles, two polar cells, a reversal of the Beaufort Gyre.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_circulation

Atmospheric circulation is the large-scale movement of air and together with ocean circulation is the means by which thermal energy is redistributed on the surface of the Earth.

The Earth's atmospheric circulation varies from year to year, but the large-scale structure of its circulation remains fairly constant.The large-scale atmospheric circulation "cells" shift polewards in warmer periods (for example, interglacials compared to glacials), but remain largely constant as they are, fundamentally, a property of the Earth's size, rotation rate, heating and atmospheric depth, all of which change little. Over very long time periods (hundreds of millions of years), a tectonic uplift can significantly alter their major elements, such as the jet stream, and plate tectonics may shift ocean currents.

The Hadley cell and the polar cell are similar in that they are thermally direct; in other words, they exist as a direct consequence of surface temperatures. Their thermal characteristics drive the weather in their domain. The sheer volume of energy that the Hadley cell transports, and the depth of the heat sink contained within the polar cell, ensures that transient weather phenomena not only have negligible effect on the systems as a whole, but — except under unusual circumstances — they do not form. The endless chain of passing highs and lows which is part of everyday life for mid-latitude dwellers, under the Ferrel cell at latitudes between 30 and 60° latitude, is unknown above the 60th and below the 30th parallels. There are some notable exceptions to this rule; over Europe, unstable weather extends to at least the 70th parallel north.


Without arctic sea ice, SST will skyrocket, see the real time Earthnullschool right now, two poles are forming but I hope will grow into one for the next few years. In summer we will likely see a one cold pole shifted 15 degrees NL South, middle of the GIS.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... ,54.01,390

The polar cell is a simple system with strong convection drivers. Though cool and dry relative to equatorial air, the air masses at the 60th parallel are still sufficiently warm and moist to undergo convection and drive a thermal loop. At the 60th parallel, the air rises to the tropopause (about 8 km at this latitude) and moves poleward. As it does so, the upper-level air mass deviates toward the east. When the air reaches the polar areas, it has cooled by radiation to space and is considerably denser than the underlying air. It descends, creating a cold, dry high-pressure area. At the polar surface level, the mass of air is driven south toward the 60th parallel, replacing the air that rose there, and the polar circulation cell is complete. As the air at the surface moves toward the equator, it deviates westwards. Again, the deviations of the air masses are the result of the Coriolis effect. The air flows at the surface are called the polar easterlies, flowing from northeast to southwest near the north pole and from southeast to northwest near the south pole.

The outflow of air mass from the cell creates harmonic waves in the atmosphere known as Rossby waves. These ultra-long waves determine the path of the polar jet stream, which travels within the transitional zone between the tropopause and the Ferrel cell. By acting as a heat sink, the polar cell moves the abundant heat from the equator toward the polar regions.


With my Dutch high school knowledge and interest in marine matters, I have a hard time following diss his equations... :roll: :
Diss on page 7:

Now to the main point. The idea that baroclinic adjustment would slowly shut down because of relative warming of the higher latitudes is in my view simply wrong. Ultimately the tropospheric circulation (and indirectly the circulation above the tropopause in the middle atmosphere) is driven by heating with the planetary rotation acting via the Coriolis torque and the gravitational stratification of the atmosphere acting to organize the circulation. The Hadley circulation is intensifying even if it is not dramatically change its distribution. It is getting wider which means that the subtropical jets that it induces are amplifying as well.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C._H._D._Buys_Ballot

Buys Ballot's law states that if a person in the Northern Hemisphere stands with his back to the wind, the atmospheric pressure is low to the left, high to the right. His main research effort in meteorology went into examining long-time series for regularities; he was more concerned with establishing the regularities than in explaining them. He made no contributions to the theory of meteorology which is perhaps surprising given his training in physics. The contrast with his American contemporary, William Ferrel, who discovered Buys-Ballot's law slightly earlier, is striking.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coriolis_ ... eteorology

Perhaps the most important impact of the Coriolis effect is in the large-scale dynamics of the oceans and the atmosphere. In meteorology and oceanography, it is convenient to postulate a rotating frame of reference wherein the Earth is stationary. In accommodation of that provisional postulation, the centrifugal and Coriolis forces are introduced. Their relative importance is determined by the applicable Rossby numbers. Tornadoes have high Rossby numbers, so, while tornado-associated centrifugal forces are quite substantial, Coriolis forces associated with tornadoes are for practical purposes negligible.[40]

Because surface ocean currents are driven by the movement of wind over the water's surface, the Coriolis force also affects the movement of ocean currents and cyclones as well. Many of the ocean's largest currents circulate around warm, high-pressure areas called gyres. Though the circulation is not as significant as that in the air, the deflection caused by the Coriolis effect is what creates the spiralling pattern in these gyres. The spiralling wind pattern helps the hurricane form. The stronger the force from the Coriolis effect, the faster the wind spins and picks up additional energy, increasing the strength of the hurricane.[41]

Air within high-pressure systems rotates in a direction such that the Coriolis force is directed radially inwards, and nearly balanced by the outwardly radial pressure gradient. As a result, air travels clockwise around high pressure in the Northern Hemisphere and anticlockwise in the Southern Hemisphere. Air around low-pressure rotates in the opposite direction, so that the Coriolis force is directed radially outward and nearly balances an inwardly radial pressure gradient.[42]


Other terrestrial effects
The Coriolis effect strongly affects the large-scale oceanic and atmospheric circulation, leading to the formation of robust features like jet streams and western boundary currents. Such features are in geostrophic balance, meaning that the Coriolis and pressure gradient forces balance each other. Coriolis acceleration is also responsible for the propagation of many types of waves in the ocean and atmosphere, including Rossby waves and Kelvin waves. It is also instrumental in the so-called Ekman dynamics in the ocean, and in the establishment of the large-scale ocean flow pattern called the Sverdrup balance.


Instead of flowing down the gradient, large scale motions in the atmosphere and ocean tend to occur perpendicular to the pressure gradient. This is known as geostrophic flow.[43] On a non-rotating planet, fluid would flow along the straightest possible line, quickly eliminating pressure gradients. The geostrophic balance is thus very different from the case of "inertial motions" (see below), which explains why mid-latitude cyclones are larger by an order of magnitude than inertial circle flow would be.

This pattern of deflection, and the direction of movement, is called Buys-Ballot's law. In the atmosphere, the pattern of flow is called a cyclone. In the Northern Hemisphere the direction of movement around a low-pressure area is anticlockwise. In the Southern Hemisphere, the direction of movement is clockwise because the rotational dynamics is a mirror image there.[44] At high altitudes, outward-spreading air rotates in the opposite direction.[45] Cyclones rarely form along the equator due to the weak Coriolis effect present in this region.[46]
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Collapse of arctic sea ice in the past

Unread postby Whitefang » Sun 01 Nov 2020, 06:43:29

2011 paper on effects of CC and the pole.

https://opensky.ucar.edu/islandora/obje ... m/PDF/view

Abstract Climate change is expected to increase winter
rainfall and flooding in many extratropical regions as
evaporation and precipitation rates increase, storms
become more intense and storm tracks move polewards.
Here, we show how changes in stratospheric circulation
could play a significant role in future climate change in the
extratropics through an additional shift in the tropospheric
circulation. This shift in the circulation alters climate
change in regional winter rainfall by an amount large
enough to significantly alter regional climate change projections. The changes are consistent with changes in
stratospheric winds inducing a change in the baroclinic
eddy growth rate across the depth of the troposphere. A
change in mean wind structure and an equatorward shift of
the tropospheric storm tracks relative to models with poor
stratospheric resolution allows coupling with surface climate. Using the Atlantic storm track as an example, we
show how this can double the predicted increase in extreme
winter rainfall over Western and Central Europe compared
to other current climate projections.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleocene ... um#Weather

Weather

Azolla floating ferns, fossils of this genus indicate subtropical weather at the North Pole
The climate would also have become much wetter, with the increase in evaporation rates peaking in the tropics. Deuterium isotopes reveal that much more of this moisture was transported polewards than normal.[29] Warm weather would have predominated as far north as the Polar basin. Finds of fossils of Azolla floating ferns in polar regions indicate subtropic temperatures at the poles.[30] The Messel pit biota, dated to the middle of the thermal maximum, indicate a tropical rainforest environment in South Germany. Unlike modern rainforests, its latitude would have made it seasonal combined with equatorial temperatures, a weather system and corresponding environment unmatched anywhere on Earth today.[31]


oh oh, shoot, I were looking for a flip of arctic sea ice in the past, ETM were already ice free....my mistake.

Since at least 1997, the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum has been investigated in geoscience as an analog to understand the effects of global warming and of massive carbon inputs to the ocean and atmosphere, including ocean acidification.[8] Humans today emit about 10 Gt of carbon (about 37 Gt CO2e) per year, and will have released a comparable amount in about 1,000 years at that rate. A main difference is that during the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum, the planet was ice-free, as the Drake passage had not yet opened and the Central American Seaway had not yet closed.[9] Although the PETM is now commonly held to be a "case study" for global warming and massive carbon emission,[1][10] the cause, details, and overall significance of the event remain uncertain.[citation needed]


More recent,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_age

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quaternary_glaciation

The entire Quaternary Period, starting 2.58 Ma, is referred to as an ice age because at least one permanent large ice sheet—the Antarctic ice sheet—has existed continuously. There is uncertainty over how much of Greenland was covered by ice during each interglacial.

Currently, Earth is in an interglacial period, which marked the beginning of the Holocene epoch. The current interglacial began between 15,000 and 10,000 years ago; this caused the ice sheets from the last glacial period to begin to disappear. Remnants of these last glaciers, now occupying about 10% of the world's land surface, still exist in Greenland, Antarctica and some mountainous regions.

During the glacial periods, the present (i.e. interglacial) hydrologic system was completely interrupted throughout large areas of the world and was considerably modified in others. Due to the volume of ice on land, sea level was about 120 meters lower than present.


There must be papers on the collapse of arctic sea ice in the past, it must have happened before? Maybe I am wrong, it is confusing, all these changes and so much information over so many years.

https://phys.org/news/2020-02-huge-arct ... buted.html

In a new paper, climate scientists at the University of Massachusetts Amherst and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution propose that massive amounts of melting sea ice in the Arctic drained into the North Atlantic and disrupted climate-steering currents, thus playing an important role in causing past abrupt climate change after the last Ice Age, from about 8,000 to 13,000 years ago. Details of how they tested this idea for the first time are online now in Geology.


Very recent and again the blablabla disruption of gulf stream etc etc.

Still have not found what I'm looking for.......not U2 self pity Bono homo sapiens.

Must be patient, time will tell the tale.

Funny pic:

https://paulbeckwithblog.files.wordpres ... 55_n-1.jpg

Surely those powers that were are prepping for the ELE by means of a weaponized virus, they knew since 2011 and made plans to deal with it at the expense of the rest, bunkers ready at New Zealand to ride out the storm until smart city with 5G total control. Conspiracy is theory no more. The great reset, NWO.....whatever, will not work out without the USA under control.

Back to sea ice:

https://news.mongabay.com/2020/01/melti ... tor-study/

Using computer analysis of historical sea ice data, two researchers at the University of California, San Diego identified which atmospheric phenomena seemed to be changing alongside the retreat of Arctic ice. Notably, they found that as the ice vanished, Central Pacific trade winds intensified.

The scientists hypothesize that the melting ice triggers a series of events that shoot cold air toward the equator via the upper atmosphere: In the absence of sea ice, the warming ocean creates a rising column of air that travels vertically to the boundary of the troposphere and stratosphere, where it is then pushes south, flowing through the mid-latitudes and on to the equator.

“It’s like applying a candle to the bottom of the atmosphere; you set off convection that rises to high altitudes and once it gets up there it has no place to go, so it gradually moves southward,” explains Charles Kennel, one of the study authors and former director of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography.
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Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby Whitefang » Sun 01 Nov 2020, 08:48:12

Might be better to delete the crap I wrote, posted above :oops:
Finally interesting work on the demise of arctic sea ice. Linkies in the article, PNAS feb.2020 paper.

By 20th-century standards, the Central Pacific trade winds that drive the El Nino–Southern Oscillation feedback system to instability have been unusually strong in the 21st century. The annual summer melts of Arctic sea ice are up to twice as large in area as in the 20th century. Arctic sea ice, upper atmospheric circulation, surface wind, and sea-surface temperature data provide evidence that upper troposphere transport processes connect the increased summer losses of Arctic sea ice to the trade-wind and Central Pacific El Nino events characteristic of the present climate state. These results add to the evidence that loss of Arctic sea ice is having a major impact on climatic variability around the world.


https://news.mongabay.com/2020/01/melti ... tor-study/

Using computer analysis of historical sea ice data, two researchers at the University of California, San Diego identified which atmospheric phenomena seemed to be changing alongside the retreat of Arctic ice. Notably, they found that as the ice vanished, Central Pacific trade winds intensified.

The scientists hypothesize that the melting ice triggers a series of events that shoot cold air toward the equator via the upper atmosphere: In the absence of sea ice, the warming ocean creates a rising column of air that travels vertically to the boundary of the troposphere and stratosphere, where it is then pushes south, flowing through the mid-latitudes and on to the equator.

“It’s like applying a candle to the bottom of the atmosphere; you set off convection that rises to high altitudes and once it gets up there it has no place to go, so it gradually moves southward,” explains Charles Kennel, one of the study authors and former director of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography.


Whether Arctic sea ice melt affects weather systems farther south has long been the subject of contentious debate in the scientific community. In 2012, Jennifer Francis, a senior scientist at the Woods Hole Research Center in Massachusetts, USA, published a study that drew connections between changes in the Arctic and mid-latitude extreme weather. Her work “triggered off a very large movement in the [scientific] literature which people are still warring about,” says Kennel. “This has been very controversial, but the evidence is piling up on [Francis’] side.”


Francis, who served as a reviewer of the PNAS paper, notes that Kennel’s study “provides new and compelling evidence that rapid Arctic change is affecting weather patterns even into the tropics. Traditional meteorological wisdom has long considered the tropics to be the dominant player in controlling major weather patterns, but this and other new studies suggest it’s time to also look at the north.”

Another study published last year in Climate Dynamics revealed a close connection between winter Arctic ice concentration over the Greenland-Barents Seas and the El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the following winter.


In a Nature study published earlier this month, researchers found that in prehistoric times, periods of major permafrost thawing were tied to an absence of summer Arctic sea ice. “This discovery about the past behavior of permafrost suggests that the expected loss of Arctic sea ice in the future will accelerate [thawing] of the permafrost presently found across much of Siberia,” says Gideon Henderson, one of the study’s authors.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby REAL Green » Sun 01 Nov 2020, 09:08:29

Whitefang wrote:Might be better to delete the crap I wrote, posted above :oops:
Finally interesting work on the desmise of arctic sea ice. Linkies in the article, PNAS feb.2020 paper.


Thank you whitefang and dissident. I think your two discussions have taught me more than years of articles I have followed. I will comment on:

Whitefang wrote:where it is then pushes south, flowing through the mid-latitudes and on to the equator.


I wish I had kept the article with the simulation of how cold airmasses were forecast to invade the tropics. It was fascinating to see this on a earth airmass simulation. I believe this phenomenon is already occurring on occasions. I remember it appearing on a format like https://earth.nullschool.net. The intrusion happened over the Pacific.
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Frost no more

Unread postby Whitefang » Sun 01 Nov 2020, 15:10:26

Thanks Green for real, we are all curious about what is happening after the ice is history.
Sea ice is I think the crucial and weakest link on the planet, it keeps the whole arctic cool, the GIS will meet the same fate, from frozen to liquid, permafrost no more. With the methane bomb on top of that, the whole planet will be toast, very hard for complex organic life to adapt and not to go extinct. SST rules the world, 40 connected feedbacks.

https://scitechdaily.com/discovery-rega ... he-future/

Sea-Ice-Free Arctic Makes Permafrost Vulnerable to Thawing
Permafrost is ground that remains frozen throughout the year; it covers nearly a quarter of Northern Hemisphere land. The frozen state of permafrost enables it to store large amounts of carbon; about twice as much as in the atmosphere. The rate and extent of future thawing of permafrost, and consequent release of its carbon, is hard to predict from modern observations alone.

However, a crucial past relationship between summer sea ice in the Arctic and permafrost, discovered in this study, is now understood, with significant implications for the future.

Professor Gideon Henderson, an author of the study based at the Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford, said: ‘We were surprised to find that times when permafrost melted in the past did not simply match up with times when the Earth was at its warmest, but were much more likely when the Arctic was free of ice in the summer. This discovery about the past behavior of permafrost suggests that the expected loss of Arctic sea ice in the future will accelerate melting of the permafrost presently found across much of Siberia.’
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 01 Nov 2020, 18:35:25

We are all struggling to understand and it is only natural that we find conflicting and confusing data. These are real time events.

Still, the long term disruption of the current environmental seems assured, only the details are foggy
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby REAL Green » Sun 01 Nov 2020, 19:20:45

Newfie wrote:We are all struggling to understand and it is only natural that we find conflicting and confusing data. These are real time events.

Still, the long term disruption of the current environmental seems assured, only the details are foggy


The details I see driving loss of life is longer term when industrial food production becomes problematic. I think sea level rise is less a concern
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 01 Nov 2020, 20:10:18

REAL Green wrote:
Newfie wrote:We are all struggling to understand and it is only natural that we find conflicting and confusing data. These are real time events.

Still, the long term disruption of the current environmental seems assured, only the details are foggy


The details I see driving loss of life is longer term when industrial food production becomes problematic. I think sea level rise is less a concern

Yes on it being longer term but I am not sure a reduction in food production is in the cards. As the climate changes the agriculture industry will move crops to where ever the new climate makes them profitable. As a species we have succeeded by being adaptive. I don't think we or the Ag. industry has lost that ability.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby REAL Green » Mon 02 Nov 2020, 06:11:39

vtsnowedin wrote: Yes on it being longer term but I am not sure a reduction in food production is in the cards. As the climate changes the agriculture industry will move crops to where ever the new climate makes them profitable. As a species we have succeeded by being adaptive. I don't think we or the Ag. industry has lost that ability.


I agree there will be some movement of the food system but not what is needed especially considering productivity to needed global food demand is already going in the wrong direction. Productivity is still increasing but at a decreasing rate overall which hints at diminishing returns trap. So you have populations increasing and increasing consumption of high value foods at the same time climate is destabilizing and food productivity increases are decreasing. IMA economic conditions are in overall decline. Those of us who are not fooled by the numbers know value chains are in the diminishing return trap and transport cost increasing. If the world embraces more renewables the cost will go up further. The biggest issue is the difficulty of moving large industrial agriculture into new areas quickly. Populations have to move too becuase it is a way of life. I don't see an easy transition. What I see is break down even with a movement to climate friendly areas.

I once had a 1000 acre corn and soy farm along the Missouri river in Mid Mo. I had 2 partners and it was a struggle. I thought I was going to green up industrial ag with new ideas at the time. This was around 2000. I instead got my ass kicked. I did not lose money but I did not make money so all it turned out to be was an education. I am a permaculture farmer now with a multispecies grazing system. It pays for itself but does not pay me for my time. I could make money if I boosted stocking rates but then I become more like an industrial AG farm. I am semi-retired now so this is my experiment with green prepping. If SHTF I can produce food without much inputs becuase my system is only grass. I only use a little grain to chum the animals. Long story short industrial ag is fragile but tough. As long as climate is good and economy supportive it works. Take that away and it does not work with huge losses.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 02 Nov 2020, 08:43:32

REAL Green wrote: Long story short industrial ag is fragile but tough. .

Is that not an oxymoron?
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby REAL Green » Mon 02 Nov 2020, 08:57:05

vtsnowedin wrote:
REAL Green wrote: Long story short industrial ag is fragile but tough. .

Is that not an oxymoron?


Yea but more like a incongruous juxtaposition to explain the paradox of human AG. Something that is providing livelihood is killing us. LOL
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby Azothius » Tue 03 Nov 2020, 12:15:34

a rapid refreeze has been underway, which is typical for years with an extremely low minimum. Though there is reason to wonder if it will stall. Some perspective from the some of the posters over at the arctic sea ice forum:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index. ... l#lastPost

Latest single day NSIDC extent increase is the largest on record, at +391k, giving a 5 day total of 1.246 million km2 (2nd largest 5 day total, so far...).
No longer the lowest on record now, 44k above 2016 (this varies a little depending on day of the year or date).
Curious to see how long this run of massive increases can continue. Strong southerly winds around Svalbard and Franz Jospeh Land, on and off over the next week, could start sending the ice edge close to 85N once more.
Lots to watch!


Certainly, the refreeze is now occurring very quickly, but this year's refreeze is still way out there in terms of its remarkable behavior. And the high rate of refreeze will only continue, IMO, if the Laptev and Kara, which got very warm this summer, are obliging and quickly ice over. Otherwise, the rate may slacken soon and the 2020 plot may begin to look a bit more like that of 2016. Interesting days ahead (for the ice and for the world).


The strong rebound that is occurring is expected in the case of a year with a very low September minimum , especially with the delay we took in the first month of the frost season.
The years with a very low September minimum are years with a period of strong increase in extent and we already knew this, with the exception of 2016 because it had a good start to the frost season.
Years with a less extreme September minimum, in general, do not have the rebound, except a bad freeze season starting
It makes sense, but maybe it should be remembered
Of course this should be superimposed on the synoptic, but it is an general observation that can be made

What I am saying is trite, but it may be useful to remember that, for people who are hearing from the arctic just then, or who will only hear about this year's good rebound.
The rebound we're seeing is good new, but this is not a sign of good arctic health, it's just an expected feature of a year with such a low minimum and a poor start to the frost season.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 08 Nov 2020, 03:23:57

Another feedback, that may help explain why sea ice has been melting faster than expected, and why it will likely continue to do so:

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #44, 2020

Posted on 4 November 2020 by doug_bostrom

Biofeedback in the Arctic

The authors of Amplified Arctic Surface Warming and Sea Ice Loss Due to Phytoplankton and Colored Dissolved Material explore the effects of increasing availability of light to ocean microrganisms in the Arctic Ocean. They claim to identify an overlooked and potentially significant positive feedback mechanism.

In a nutshell, increased attenuation of light in the upper few meters of the ocean due to increased phytoplankton population concentrates energy where it counts most, leading to later formation of ice due to increased surface temperature, with further implications.

The authors observe that this effect may help to explain discrepancy between predicted ice loss in the Arctic Ocean versus observation.


https://www.skepticalscience.com/new_re ... _2020.html
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Rivers feedback

Unread postby Whitefang » Sun 08 Nov 2020, 06:28:37

Another day, another feedback.......

https://phys.org/news/2020-11-rivers-ar ... ocean.html

According to the research, major Arctic rivers contribute significantly more heat to the Arctic Ocean than they did in 1980. River heat is responsible for up to 10% of the total sea ice loss that occurred from 1980 to 2015 over the shelf region of the Arctic Ocean. That melt is equivalent to about 120,000 square miles of 1-meter thick ice.

The research found that much more river heat energy enters the atmosphere than melts ice or heats the ocean. Since air is mobile, this means river heat can affect areas of the Arctic far from river deltas.
Rivers are just one of many heat sources now warming the Arctic Ocean. The entire Arctic system is in an extremely anomalous state as global air temperatures rise and warm Atlantic and Pacific water enters the region, decaying sea ice even in the middle of winter. All these components work together, causing positive feedback loops that speed up warming in the Arctic.

"It's very alarming because all these changes are accelerating," said Polyakov. "The rapid changes are just incredible in the last decade or so."


Not that we were not aware of this heat input into the arctic ocean, but it gives the numbers, the scale and speed of the phase transition, feedback upon feedback upon feedback.....no stopping this train, the ice is getting thin.

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/45/eabc4699

Abstract
Arctic river discharge increased over the last several decades, conveying heat and freshwater into the Arctic Ocean and likely affecting regional sea ice and the ocean heat budget. However, until now, there have been only limited assessments of riverine heat impacts. Here, we adopted a synthesis of a pan-Arctic sea ice–ocean model and a land surface model to quantify impacts of river heat on the Arctic sea ice and ocean heat budget. We show that river heat contributed up to 10% of the regional sea ice reduction over the Arctic shelves from 1980 to 2015. Particularly notable, this effect occurs as earlier sea ice breakup in late spring and early summer. The increasing ice-free area in the shelf seas results in a warmer ocean in summer, enhancing ocean–atmosphere energy exchange and atmospheric warming. Our findings suggest that a positive river heat–sea ice feedback nearly doubles the river heat effect.


SST means everything, doubling effect...exponential.
This is why all feedbacks make the arctic flip into a state without ice and make way to a GIS collapse current century.
I thought paleoclimatology had answers on the effects of a sea ice melt and influence on the GIS but wiki with linkies just mentioned it were uncertain how much ice were left on Greenland, how green it actually became after the phase shift :roll:

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=ho ... ORM=VDRVSR

2014 Jim White on abrupt changes, at 16 minutes.....change in the sea ice extent giving a 10 degrees C. warming in a year.
12000 years ago. Younger Dryas.

Just maybe this is a first time abrupt shift to a full blown hothouse at current plate/tectonics locations, from glacial Earth to a new state, a new unknown world within the geological blink of an eye.
A virgin world that never happened before.
An adventure.
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