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Modern Collapsology

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Modern Collapsology

Unread postby REAL Green » Thu 15 Oct 2020, 11:38:40

Tanada wrote:many empires that have collapsed historically suffer from a commonality. That common factor is, the central government became too set in its ways and entrenched in protecting its perceived government bureaucracy self interest...We are not quite there yet, but the bumbling over reaction to Covid and the hyper partisanship are very bad signs going forward from here.


I agree but keep in mind there is really no empire now there is the global. The global is the new empire and there is no more planet to expand the global to. This means no place on earth will remain untouched.
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Re: Modern Collapsology

Unread postby Subjectivist » Thu 15 Oct 2020, 12:13:01

REAL Green wrote:
Tanada wrote:many empires that have collapsed historically suffer from a commonality. That common factor is, the central government became too set in its ways and entrenched in protecting its perceived government bureaucracy self interest...We are not quite there yet, but the bumbling over reaction to Covid and the hyper partisanship are very bad signs going forward from here.


I agree but keep in mind there is really no empire now there is the global. The global is the new empire and there is no more planet to expand the global to. This means no place on earth will remain untouched.


Isn't that kind of the whole point? Some folks believe everything is global and international aspects are all that matter while other folks still believe national/local aspects are everything? Globalism has been nothing but a continuous drain on Ohio. Having people proudly proclaim localism/nationalism is dead certainly doesn't get my vote.
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Re: Modern Collapsology

Unread postby REAL Green » Thu 15 Oct 2020, 12:44:50

Subjectivist wrote: Globalism has been nothing but a continuous drain on Ohio. Having people proudly proclaim localism/nationalism is dead certainly doesn't get my vote.


Rampant globalism is the reason localism is more important than ever except that a local must realize the global trap they are in. Everywhere is delocalized by globalism. If they are not delocalized for their survival of the need for products then it is by risk of exposure of the cascading failure of globalism. I am a firm advocate of localism as the way forward for most people who want some meaning to return to their life by positive change scaled properly.
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Re: Modern Collapsology

Unread postby evilgenius » Thu 15 Oct 2020, 17:30:18

REAL Green wrote:
Subjectivist wrote: Globalism has been nothing but a continuous drain on Ohio. Having people proudly proclaim localism/nationalism is dead certainly doesn't get my vote.


Rampant globalism is the reason localism is more important than ever except that a local must realize the global trap they are in. Everywhere is delocalized by globalism. If they are not delocalized for their survival of the need for products then it is by risk of exposure of the cascading failure of globalism. I am a firm advocate of localism as the way forward for most people who want some meaning to return to their life by positive change scaled properly.

3D printing is not quite there yet. Until it is, things will have to be delivered. Heck, even when it is, the raw materials will probably still have to be shipped. Globalism will make that possible, if we try hard enough.

People talk about the future as if there is only one form of globalism. They forget the hippy version, one of many that offers something like real peace, for the one Marx had really to be referring to when he critiqued Capitalism. We are much more in line with the one that Marx predicted than the one that supplies, simply, as we demand. That one doesn't come with institutionalized slavery to our own consumption. Marx knew we would always want things to be cheaper. It takes a lot of pain and organization to really get cheap. He knew what we would gladly do to our fellow man to get there.
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Re: Modern Collapsology

Unread postby REAL Green » Thu 15 Oct 2020, 17:46:46

evilgenius wrote: Until it is, things will have to be delivered. Heck, even when it is, the raw materials will probably still have to be shipped. Globalism will make that possible, if we try hard enough.


I am realistic about globalism. I have what I have now becuase of it. Pure localism means going way back in time and in fact is something that cannot be done by most. My point is localism must be elevated where it is possible to give some places more resilience and sustainability. Globalism in a time of decline is unstable and dangerous. There is no way we can have so many people on this earth living as they do without globalism. Our modern ways are directly supported by globalism. So I may not like globalism but I realize who is buttering my bread. I am just saying get some feet on the ground locally and make an effort to be less dependent on globalism. If you are in a bad local then leave. This includes the people you associate with.
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Re: Modern Collapsology

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 15 Oct 2020, 18:03:40

Tanada wrote:We are not quite there yet, but the bumbling over reaction to Covid and the hyper partisanship are very bad signs going forward from here.


Honestly, the hyper-partisanship is quite distressing. The idea that Americans have basically lost the ability to think for themselves in mass (being involved in peak oil for awhile now, I understand it has always been with us) is disturbing. If logic, facts, basic scientific principles that got us to where we are as a species continues to be jettisoned at the outset of any conversation, yeah, we are SO hosed!
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Re: Modern Collapsology

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 15 Oct 2020, 18:10:38

REAL Green wrote: I am a firm advocate of localism as the way forward for most people who want some meaning to return to their life by positive change scaled properly.


Absolutely!! Good for Americans, it is already being done, and all you've got to do is buy in to the future early.


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Re: Modern Collapsology

Unread postby Azothius » Thu 15 Oct 2020, 19:31:44

Another Black Swan just waiting to hatch...

Two Dead Satellites May Collide Tonight. That's Really, Really Bad.
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/two- ... 00690.html

An incident such as this also has the potential to contribute to the sudden collapse of modern civilization:

According to the company's latest calculations, the objects are expected to come within 80 feet of each other (±59 feet). The probability of a collision is greater than 10 percent. If the satellites collide, the impact could spread a network of debris throughout low-Earth Orbit.

This exact scenario is one that spaceflight experts have been warning about for decades. Earth is shrouded in a web of space junk, with pieces ranging in size from flecks of paint to spent rocket stages. The United States Space Surveillance Network is currently monitoring roughly 200,000 objects between 0.4 and 4 inches, 14,000 objects larger than 4 inches, and thousands of larger objects.

In 1978, NASA scientist Donald Kessler published a landmark paper on the potential impacts of space junk collisions in Earth's orbit. He predicted a grim future in which a chain of collisions could send an impenetrable wave of debris out across low-Earth orbit, rendering the rest of the universe out of reach to humanity for decades.
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Re: Modern Collapsology

Unread postby REAL Green » Fri 16 Oct 2020, 06:13:37

Azothius wrote:Another Black Swan just waiting to hatch...

Two Dead Satellites May Collide Tonight. That's Really, Really Bad.
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/two- ... 00690.html

An incident such as this also has the potential to contribute to the sudden collapse of modern civilization:



More evidence of diminishing returns to technology. This phenomenon is starting to go nonlinear in some areas.
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Re: Modern Collapsology

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 16 Oct 2020, 13:49:44

Azothius wrote:Another Black Swan just waiting to hatch...

Two Dead Satellites May Collide Tonight. That's Really, Really Bad.
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/two- ... 00690.html

An incident such as this also has the potential to contribute to the sudden collapse of modern civilization:


Boy, you'll fall for just about anything, won't you?

There is Azothius, sitting in his/her residence, and their cable goes out because a satellite gets knocked out. "OMG!!!!" he/she says, this is the collapse of modern civilization!!
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020
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Re: Modern Collapsology

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 16 Oct 2020, 13:51:57

REAL Green wrote:
An incident such as this also has the potential to contribute to the sudden collapse of modern civilization:



More evidence of diminishing returns to technology. This phenomenon is starting to go nonlinear in some areas.


Not that it would matter much if you had chosen the path of REAL Green with the Amish folks though! You'd be sitting around, without any cable or internet, and you wouldn't even notice when they go offline.
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Re: Modern Collapsology

Unread postby REAL Green » Fri 16 Oct 2020, 14:47:37

AdamB wrote:Not that it would matter much if you had chosen the path of REAL Green with the Amish folks though! You'd be sitting around, without any cable or internet, and you wouldn't even notice when they go offline.


I am using a local Amish to build my shop now. It has been interesting to see their style. They really have to be managed becuase they are set in their ways but accommodating. I am incorporating extreme insulation strategies that they have not done before so I have had to teach them some new methods. It has been interesting to visit their farms. They need a ride occasionally so I have been to their farms. These Amish actually use more modern stuff than one might think. Most of all they don't drive or operate equipment but they have plenty of power tools. They will probably save me 30% but they have also cost me more time managing the effort.

Keep in mind REAL Green is not TRUE Green. True Green is an aboriginal off the grid in a harmonious existence in balance with the earths systems. Not much of that anymore. When I was younger, I was an outdoor survivalist type when I could be. I would go offline as much as I could as a matter of discipline. I am getting older now so I am not interested in a tough life. REAL Green is much more about a localized focus of people and place. It is realistic and relative so it applies to anyone. It is behavioral first and foremost in regards to the embrace of a macro decline process. What this means is a REAL Green embraces a planetary decline and acknowledges humans are part of this. REAL Green finds a hybrid arrangement of the best practices and things of both old and modern. REAL Green combines the old and the new in the local to go low carbon locally. Low carbon generally loses its low carbon once it gets mobility so localism is a key.

I am very much a part of current events but mainly for enjoyment. I am not going to march or protest. I will tell my kids not to go to war unless it is in our local. I will spend my money locally if possible. I will support locals when I can. Yet, the realistic part of this is my people and place are delocalized as is most of civilization today so REAL Green says use to leave it. I drive and have vehicles. I occasionally fly places. I participate in consumerism. I am also obsessed with conservation and efficiency but again realistically. I am managing wildlife but also animals. I do gardens, orchards, and grapes. I use the global to turbo change my local and I attempt to lower my footprint in the process. It is hard to do but can be done.

I combine all this in green prepping which means I have all the prep assets needed for a crisis but I have taken it further with a green and prepped lifestyle embedded in localism. Properly scaled localism is more resilient and sustainable so a good prep lifestyle. I have no illusions my prep and my green might be consumed in a Mad Max or a abrupt climate event. I could lose all I have but REAL Green is about a journey not a destination. So basically, I am embracing the decline process the planet is in and mirroring it in my own life taking destructive change and finding niches for constructive change. A microclime is the result if somebody has chosen a good local to invest in. Local means people and place. So, choose the right people too not just the place.

This then becomes like a retreat in force. It reminds me of what the Germans did on the eastern front in WWII. The Germans were losing the war but often winning the battles as the slowly retreated across the vast expanses of the eastern front. In a similar way REAL Green retreats in force with high morale. The downsizing with dignity and in place means less affluence but more spiritual meaning. It is this spiritual meaning that is the key to embracing less. Spiritual meaning makes up for the loss of things. I could have a place at the beach but instead mess with animals and plants in a harsh environment. I am lucky to have the time and money so I am not going to act above others.

REAL Green is not concerned with comparisons and competition. It is local and individual. It is not a cult or religion. It is an add on like an Ap that can be included with your own higher power of meaning. It is about enlisting the planet in your support buy emulating its ecological succession. This is one of the reasons when I get criticism of REAL Green, I just laugh it off. It is not meant to be better than anyone. It is not self-righteous. It is instead humbled because the planet is the power it seeks to embrace. Many have powers higher than the planet with their faith. There are no issues with this. REAL green is more a disposition of action than a badge of achievement. This may all seem like a tossed world salad but the keep point to it is local and individual. Make of it what you want. It is open source.
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Re: Modern Collapsology

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 16 Oct 2020, 15:08:28

REAL Green wrote:
AdamB wrote:Not that it would matter much if you had chosen the path of REAL Green with the Amish folks though! You'd be sitting around, without any cable or internet, and you wouldn't even notice when they go offline.


I am using a local Amish to build my shop now.


Sure! We used them for building sheds and furniture when I was a kid.

REAL Green wrote:Keep in mind REAL Green is not TRUE Green. True Green is an aboriginal off the grid in a harmonious existence in balance with the earths systems.


Nah, humans don't have to be hunter-gatherers to qualify as TRUE green. The Amish lifestyle is simple enough, renewable enough (if you exclude the genetic effects of breeding in small populations).

REAL Green wrote: So basically, I am embracing the decline process the planet is in and mirroring it in my own life taking destructive change and finding niches for constructive change.


Nothing wrong with that at all. But the Amish sure seem to have figured all of this out before rich First Worlders showed up and turned the planet into a Persian rug-market, everything for sale for a price type bizarre.

REAL Green wrote: The downsizing with dignity and in place means less affluence but more spiritual meaning. It is this spiritual meaning that is the key to embracing less.


Well, to each their own spiritual meaning perhaps? Consumers, while not having a defined religion, seems to give them happiness, so they might disagree with less is more.

REAL Green wrote: Spiritual meaning makes up for the loss of things.


Religion has been selling this for millennia. If it was inherently true, how could the overwhelming popularity of consumerism have ever gotten started?
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Re: Modern Collapsology

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 17 Oct 2020, 13:21:37

Azothius wrote:Another Black Swan just waiting to hatch...

Two Dead Satellites May Collide Tonight. That's Really, Really Bad.
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/two- ... 00690.html

An incident such as this also has the potential to contribute to the sudden collapse of modern civilization:

Greatly overstated, as usual by the doomers on this site.

I had read the story on a scientific site days ago, including the figures, odds, problems, etc.

First, it didn't happen this time.

Second, there are companies working on solutions, including sending up small satellites with heavy duty foam to catch LOTS of the small stuff. When they accumulate enough, their orbit decays due to the additional weight (but no additional velocity), and they burn up on re-entry.

A horrendous and expensive way to deal with just part (the small stuff) of the mess, but an example of how the issue is not at all hopeless (the way fast crash doomers try to portray nearly every issue, at EVERY turn, which is what makes them completely lack credibility).

Also, losing most access to space for years would be HIGHLY inconvenient and expensive. It would NOT mean collapse of modern civilization or anything close to that, even if satellite maintenance became very difficult for awhile.

As usual with MANY modern problems, it's sad and very stupid that we WAIT to DO anything meaningful about it until the threat is HUGE, but if nothing else, humans as large groups are FANTASTIC about procrastination, instead arguing about or ignoring serious issues.

So as usual, continuing to stumble along, mostly stupidly, is a FAR more likely scenario for the next decade or three (or many many more) than swift doom from man-made issue X.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Modern Collapsology

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 17 Oct 2020, 13:26:50

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Azothius wrote:Another Black Swan just waiting to hatch...

Two Dead Satellites May Collide Tonight. That's Really, Really Bad.
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/two- ... 00690.html

An incident such as this also has the potential to contribute to the sudden collapse of modern civilization:

Greatly overstated, as usual by the doomers on this site.

I had read the story on a scientific site days ago, including the figures, odds, problems, etc.

First, it didn't happen this time.

Second, there are companies working on solutions, including sending up small satellites with heavy duty foam to catch LOTS of the small stuff. When they accumulate enough, their orbit decays due to the additional weight (but no additional velocity), and they burn up on re-entry.

A horrendous and expensive way to deal with just part (the small stuff) of the mess, but an example of how the issue is not at all hopeless (the way fast crash doomers try to portray nearly every issue, at EVERY turn, which is what makes them completely lack credibility).

Also, losing most access to space for years would be HIGHLY inconvenient and expensive. It would NOT mean collapse of modern civilization or anything close to that, even if satellite maintenance became very difficult for awhile.

As usual with MANY modern problems, it's sad and very stupid that we WAIT to DO anything meaningful about it until the threat is HUGE, but if nothing else, humans as large groups are FANTASTIC about procrastination, instead arguing about or ignoring serious issues.

So as usual, continuing to stumble along, mostly stupidly, is a FAR more likely scenario for the next decade or three (or many many more) than swift doom from man-made issue X.

Oh, and given the massive projects to put tens of thousands of low orbit WIFI satellites up in coming years to blanket the earth with reliable and high capacity WIFI service everywhere, hopefully there is plenty of financial incentive to actually want to DEAL with the problem -- if nothing else, because it's better than the alternative re keeping such a system(s) running reliably and at massive profits.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Modern Collapsology

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 17 Oct 2020, 18:42:01

AdamB wrote:
Azothius wrote:Another Black Swan just waiting to hatch...

Two Dead Satellites May Collide Tonight. That's Really, Really Bad.
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/two- ... 00690.html

An incident such as this also has the potential to contribute to the sudden collapse of modern civilization:


Boy, you'll fall for just about anything, won't you?

There is Azothius, sitting in his/her residence, and their cable goes out because a satellite gets knocked out. "OMG!!!!" he/she says, this is the collapse of modern civilization!!


Adam,

You need to lighten up a good bit.

This post post could easily be classified as a purely personal attack and be deleted.
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Re: Modern Collapsology

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 17 Oct 2020, 21:09:02

Newfie wrote:Adam,

You need to lighten up a good bit.


Understood.
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Re: Modern Collapsology

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sun 18 Oct 2020, 11:13:57

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Azothius wrote:Another Black Swan just waiting to hatch...

Two Dead Satellites May Collide Tonight. That's Really, Really Bad.
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/two- ... 00690.html

An incident such as this also has the potential to contribute to the sudden collapse of modern civilization:

Greatly overstated, as usual by the doomers on this site.

I had read the story on a scientific site days ago, including the figures, odds, problems, etc.

First, it didn't happen this time.

Second, there are companies working on solutions, including sending up small satellites with heavy duty foam to catch LOTS of the small stuff. When they accumulate enough, their orbit decays due to the additional weight (but no additional velocity), and they burn up on re-entry.

A horrendous and expensive way to deal with just part (the small stuff) of the mess, but an example of how the issue is not at all hopeless (the way fast crash doomers try to portray nearly every issue, at EVERY turn, which is what makes them completely lack credibility).

Also, losing most access to space for years would be HIGHLY inconvenient and expensive. It would NOT mean collapse of modern civilization or anything close to that, even if satellite maintenance became very difficult for awhile.

As usual with MANY modern problems, it's sad and very stupid that we WAIT to DO anything meaningful about it until the threat is HUGE, but if nothing else, humans as large groups are FANTASTIC about procrastination, instead arguing about or ignoring serious issues.

So as usual, continuing to stumble along, mostly stupidly, is a FAR more likely scenario for the next decade or three (or many many more) than swift doom from man-made issue X.

Oh, and given the massive projects to put tens of thousands of low orbit WIFI satellites up in coming years to blanket the earth with reliable and high capacity WIFI service everywhere, hopefully there is plenty of financial incentive to actually want to DEAL with the problem -- if nothing else, because it's better than the alternative re keeping such a system(s) running reliably and at massive profits.


I don't think it is an immediate problem, however this is an issue that has been growing since at least the 1970's. In more recent times most countries require that the upper stages of launch vehicles be put into a rapidly decaying orbit so that they don't become more uncontrolled space junk in orbit, but in the earlier days this was not a consideration. As a result the USAF-Space Force tracks hund5reds or orbiting upper stages from launches that are completely uncontrolled and orbiting at (obviously) great speed. They constantly update the orbital data so that new vehicles and existing satellites can avoid the uncontrolled junk and for the most part this is successful. However they only track stuff about 10cm(4 inches) in size and up so paint flecks, nuts, bolts and other objects that fall apart are not tracked. It is estimated these now number in the tens of thousands of objects. If you don't believe a bolt weighing half an ounce can destroy a satellite if they hit one another in opposing orbits then you do not understand how much of a shooting gallery things are becoming. A simple bolt even if made of aircraft grade aluminum in an opposing orbit impacts with a closing speed of 34,000 mph which is 20 times the speed of a bullet as it leaves the muzzle of a hunting rifle. It doesn't pierce through the satellite, it vaporizes on impact. The resulting lance of plasma sprays through the satellite the same way an anti-tank RPG does by using a shaped charge to convert is copper payload into a plasma lance of copper. The results are catastrophic to say the least, especially if the plasma goes through any of the fuel tanks for the attitude and control thrusters.

When the two objects impacting are larger like two dead satellites in crossing orbits the section of mass on both where the silhouettes overlap in the collision are converted into highly energetic plasma and the mass outside the overlap is thrown away in all directions as if a very large chemical bomb had been set off in the middle of a junk car. This happened about a decade ago and the resulting junk is still up there like twin shotgun blasts of debris that is still following in tracks roughly aligned to the two original orbits.

As for the proposed plastic catchers mitt arrangement to start clearing out the orbital junk, they sound great. Unfortunately nobody has actually launched them even as a proof of concept and if they work as advertised they will be very expensive when you count the number of junk collectors that will have to be launched to clean up the mess we have left behind in orbit. And before anyone says it, yes atmospheric drag will eventually knock everything back down that is in orbit now, but the higher the orbit the longer it takes. For stuff in the same orbits used by the ISS you are talking a decade or two. For stuff in intermediate orbits like the leftover parts from Apollo tests of the 1960's you are talking about up to a century, and for Geosynchronous orbits where the cable satellite and other communications birds orbit you are talking millennia. Every year there are more nations launching stuff into orbit and truthfully hardly a day goes by now that someone somewhere isn't launching something.

http://www.spacesafetymagazine.com/spac ... -syndrome/

https://youtu.be/iEAp_6Jo5O4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4iIO4t2dRAw
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Re: Modern Collapsology

Unread postby Azothius » Mon 19 Oct 2020, 14:11:34

AdamB wrote:
Azothius wrote:Another Black Swan just waiting to hatch...

Two Dead Satellites May Collide Tonight. That's Really, Really Bad.
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/two- ... 00690.html

An incident such as this also has the potential to contribute to the sudden collapse of modern civilization:


Boy, you'll fall for just about anything, won't you?

There is Azothius, sitting in his/her residence, and their cable goes out because a satellite gets knocked out. "OMG!!!!" he/she says, this is the collapse of modern civilization!!


LOL!

Luckily, I don't have cable so I won't be startled quite so easily.
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Re: Modern Collapsology

Unread postby REAL Green » Tue 20 Oct 2020, 08:33:07

One of the initial signs of the collpase process is a dysfunctional system with irrational responses:

“Watch: Google Whistleblower Tells Veritas Search Engine Is "Skewing Results" To Benefit Democrats”
https://summit.news/2020/10/20/video-go ... democrats/

“A person who claims to be a program manager at Google Cloud has told investigative journalists with Project Veritas that the search engine is intentionally manipulating results in order to benefit the Democrats and to hinder President Trump’s campaign. Ritesh Lakhkar, who identified himself as a technical program manager at Google’s Cloud service, made the comments in footage released Monday. The interview appears to have been filmed without Lakhkar’s knowledge. The project manager accused Google of “playing god” with US politics, and of ‘skewing’ it’s algorithms to project negative news and talking points where Trump is concerned…When asked if Google favours one party over another, Lakhkar commented that “The wind is blowing toward Democrats, because GOP equals Trump and Trump equals GOP. Everybody hates it, even though GOP may have good traits, no one wants to acknowledge them right now.”…Remember when Google had that meeting in 2016 after Trump won and vowed to never let it happen again? Have you tried finding anything on Google in the last 2 years that doesn't amplify Democrat talking points?...He emphasised that “Like, if it was fraud it doesn’t matter, but for Trump or Melania Trump, it matters… Trump says something, misinformation. You’re going to delete that because it’s illegal under whatever pretext. And if a Democratic leader says that, you’re going to leave it.” Describing the working environment at Google, Lakhkar said “your opinion matters more than your work.” “When Trump won the first time, people were crying in the corridors of Google. There were protests, there were marches. There were like, I guess, group therapy sessions for employees organized by HR,” he said. The whistleblower continued, “I guess that’s one of the reasons I feel suffocated [at Google]. Because on one side you have this unprofessional attitude, and on the other side you have this ultra-leftist attitude. Your entire existence is questioned.” Google has not responded to the allegations at time of writing.”
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