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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby jedrider » Thu 24 Sep 2020, 13:50:33

AdamB wrote:
jedrider wrote:Bingo! Peak Oil.


Again!


Yes, I do like to repeat the obvious. Peak Oil means that our rate of growth will decrease as non-oil means of powering our economy are just not as potent as the oil cornucopia was. That's all. It's good to acknowledge change when it's happening.
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 24 Sep 2020, 15:19:40

jedrider wrote:
AdamB wrote:
jedrider wrote:Bingo! Peak Oil.


Again!


Yes, I do like to repeat the obvious. Peak Oil means that our rate of growth will decrease as non-oil means of powering our economy are just not as potent as the oil cornucopia was. That's all.


Peak oil means we will consume less oil. That's all. Might it be accompanied with less GDP growth? Sure. They are generally called "recessions" and happen on a semi-regular basis...with or without peak oils, past, present or future, getting involved.

jedrider wrote: It's good to acknowledge change when it's happening.


Absolutely.
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 24 Sep 2020, 16:57:23

AdamB wrote:
jedrider wrote:
AdamB wrote:
jedrider wrote:Bingo! Peak Oil.


Again!


Yes, I do like to repeat the obvious. Peak Oil means that our rate of growth will decrease as non-oil means of powering our economy are just not as potent as the oil cornucopia was. That's all.


Peak oil means we will consume less oil. That's all. Might it be accompanied with less GDP growth? Sure. They are generally called "recessions" and happen on a semi-regular basis...with or without peak oils, past, present or future, getting involved.

jedrider wrote: It's good to acknowledge change when it's happening.


Absolutely.

When, adjusting for GDP growth, when we're actually consuming less oil as a trend for, say, five years (to establish a meaningful trend vs. noise), be SURE and get back to us, peak oil folks.

Meanwhile, until BEV's become over, say 25% of the global car market, I would expect the general trend of oil use to grow as global GDP grows (at least the same general direction) to hold.

After that, it depends on how rapidly BEV oil demand displacement occurs in relation to global demand growth from things like more roads, more flying, and more petrochemical demand.

I'm not convinced global oil demand will drop rapidly from the differences between those two things, as I expect BEV demand to grow at a tepid pace overall, compared to the green "oil will be a thing of the past REAL SOON NOW" empty claims. For one thing, BEV uptake will be considerably slower in the third world than the first world, re relative economic and infrastructure issues.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby REAL Green » Sun 27 Sep 2020, 06:27:53

“Multi-gigawatt market for co-located solar and storage is already taking off but faces challenges”
https://www.energy-storage.news/news/mu ... -taking-of

“found that 76% considered there would be a multi-gigawatt co-location market in less than five years, indicating industry confidence that co-located projects would be economically feasible in the short-term. This was echoed by Ben Irons, co-founder of Habitat Energy, who said subsidies were no longer required for solar, storage or co-located solar-storage projects with prices as they are. Instead, these projects can be incentivised sufficiently through market design. The US market, described as the epicentre of co-located projects by Chase, with a pipeline standing in excess of 8.9GW, also has a unique advantage in stimulating the development of solar-storage projects through the Investment Tax Credit.”
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby REAL Green » Wed 30 Sep 2020, 07:51:18

I remember the hydrogen economy fade that came out as a solution to PO but died out in the early 2000's becuase it was not realistic. Keep in mind at that time there were no cheap renewables except maybe Hydro. I think wind is especially going to mix well with hydrogen as a storage vector. Personally, I think the grail of transport is a hydrogen fuel cell combined with a robust battery on an efficient electric drive train with great aerodynamics and light weight material.

“The Hydrogen Boom Is On Track To Hit $11 Trillion”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... llion.html

“According to the giant investment bank, hydrogen could supply our vast energy needs, fuel our cars, heat our homes, and also help to fight climate change. BAC says we have reached the tipping point of harnessing this element effectively and economically and predicts the hydrogen marketplace to reach a staggering $11 trillion by 2050. BAC has likened hydrogen to smartphones pre-2007 and has advised investors to double-down before it goes fully mainstream… Plug Power's deal with Apex Clean Energy to develop a green hydrogen network using wind power offers a chance to tap into "very low cost" renewable power and helps accelerate the shift to clean energy. Plug has a goal for over 50% of its hydrogen supplies to be generated from renewable resources by 2024. PlugPower is no longer content to be viewed merely as a maker of fuel cells for forklifts. The company has announced a partnership with Universal Hydrogen to build a commercially-viable hydrogen fuel cell-based propulsion system designed to power commercial regional aircraft. The initiative will help bring Plug's proven hydrogen ProGen fuel cell technology to new markets…According to a recent report by the Hydrogen Council, "...scaling fuel cell production from 10,000 to 200,000 units can reduce unit costs by as much as 45%, irrespective of any major technological breakthroughs, and can impact multiple end-use cases. Scaling up to 70 GW of electrolysis will lead to electrolyser costs of less than $400 per kW." This already appears to be happening in California: FirstElement Fuel has reported selling hydrogen for $12 per kilogram plus tax for a total $13.11 per kilogram and expects prices to continue coming down as hydrogen production cost falls. Currently, California has a network of 43 open retail hydrogen refueling stations, capable of dispensing more than 11,800 kilograms of hydrogen each day. That is enough to support nearly 17,000 light-duty FCEVs or more than double California's fleet of 7,000 FCEVs ( 5,000 FCEVs in 2018). Green steel The hydrogen ecosystem has been expanding and has lately added a new application to its portfolio: Using hydrogen to manufacture green steel.”
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby REAL Green » Sat 03 Oct 2020, 18:20:22

Messy business

“Texas Taxpayers Face $117 Billion Bill For Orphaned Oil Wells”
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News ... Wells.html

“The state of Texas and its taxpayers could be on the hook for paying up to US$117 billion for the cleaning-up of abandoned wells as a growing number of U.S. oil companies go bust, and the guarantees for paying for the cleanup cover only 1 percent of estimated costs, a report by climate finance think-tank Carbon Tracker showed on Thursday. U.S. oil and gas producing states and taxpayers may have to pay in total as much as US$280 billion in cleanup costs, with Texas leading with US$117 billion, followed by Oklahoma with US$31 billion and Pennsylvania with US$15 billion, Carbon Tracker’s report says. The US$280-billion estimate is for 2.6 million unplugged onshore oil and gas wells in the United States, while there may be another estimated 1.2 million undocumented onshore wells, Carbon Tracker said. While operators are obliged to pay for the cleanup of oil and gas wells, the so-called surety bonds - the guarantee that the operator will indeed pay those costs - currently cover around 1 percent of the closure costs for plugging and cleanup of the wells, the think-tank said. The growing number of defaults in the U.S. shale patch may put taxpayers “at risk of picking up costs in excess of available bonds,” Carbon Tracker said.”
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby REAL Green » Tue 06 Oct 2020, 05:55:42

“Venezuela's Oil industry May Never Recover”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/V ... cover.html

“The oil industry is responsible for more than a quarter of Venezuela’s GDP and 99% of all exports by value, making it a crucial economic driver. For this reason, the collapse of Venezuela’s oil industry has sounded the death knell for its economy plunging it into a deep crisis. This is highlighted by the IMF predicting Venezuela’s 2020 GDP will shrink 15%, even after contracting by a massive 25% during 2019… The Latin American country’s ever deeper economic crisis is directly correlated to the collapse of its oil industry and declining petroleum production. Venezuela only pumped a daily average of 340,000 barrels during August, less than half of the 712,000 barrels daily produced for the same month a year earlier and lower than a fifth of the 1,711 barrels daily pumped during 2017. For the first eight months of 2020 Venezuela’s oil output has averaged 542,750 barrels daily, which is 32% lower than 2019 and well below the nearly three million barrels daily reported for 2000.”
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby REAL Green » Sat 17 Oct 2020, 16:42:48

“The Measure of Civilization: How Social Development Decides the Fate of Nations”
https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardc ... vilization

“In the past thirty years, there have been fierce debates over how civilizations develop and why the West became so powerful. The Measure of Civilization presents a brand-new way of investigating these questions and provides new tools for assessing the long-term growth of societies. Using a groundbreaking numerical index of social development that compares societies in different times and places, award-winning author Ian Morris sets forth a sweeping examination of Eastern and Western development across 15,000 years since the end of the last ice age. He offers surprising conclusions about when and why the West came to dominate the world and fresh perspectives for thinking about the twenty-first century. Adapting the United Nations’ approach for measuring human development, Morris’s index breaks social development into four traits—energy capture per capita, organization, information technology, and war-making capacity—and he uses archaeological, historical, and current government data to quantify patterns. Morris reveals that for 90 percent of the time since the last ice age, the world’s most advanced region has been at the western end of Eurasia, but contrary to what many historians once believed, there were roughly 1,200 years—from about 550 to 1750 CE—when an East Asian region was more advanced. Only in the late eighteenth century CE, when northwest Europeans tapped into the energy trapped in fossil fuels, did the West leap ahead. Resolving some of the biggest debates in global history, The Measure of Civilization puts forth innovative tools for determining past, present, and future economic and social trends.”
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 18 Oct 2020, 00:58:35

REAL Green wrote:Messy business

“Texas Taxpayers Face $117 Billion Bill For Orphaned Oil Wells”
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News ... Wells.html

“The state of Texas and its taxpayers could be on the hook for paying up to US$117 billion for the cleaning-up of abandoned wells as a growing number of U.S. oil companies go bust, and the guarantees for paying for the cleanup cover only 1 percent of estimated costs, a report by climate finance think-tank Carbon Tracker showed on Thursday. U.S. oil and gas producing states and taxpayers may have to pay in total as much as US$280 billion in cleanup costs, with Texas leading with US$117 billion, followed by Oklahoma with US$31 billion and Pennsylvania with US$15 billion, Carbon Tracker’s report says. The US$280-billion estimate is for 2.6 million unplugged onshore oil and gas wells in the United States, while there may be another estimated 1.2 million undocumented onshore wells, Carbon Tracker said. While operators are obliged to pay for the cleanup of oil and gas wells, the so-called surety bonds - the guarantee that the operator will indeed pay those costs - currently cover around 1 percent of the closure costs for plugging and cleanup of the wells, the think-tank said. The growing number of defaults in the U.S. shale patch may put taxpayers “at risk of picking up costs in excess of available bonds,” Carbon Tracker said.”


Joe BIden to the rescue.

In his ABC town hall last week, Joe Biden pledged to have the federal government hire "250,000 union workers" to cap all the wells in Pennsylvania. No doubt he would also be willing to hire another 250,00 union workers to cap the wells in Texas as well.

Joe BIden pledges federal government will hire hundreds of thousands people to cap wells

Problem solved!
The lack of speed has to go faster---Joe Biden
Never underestimate the ability of Joe Biden to f#@% things up---Barack Obama
I tested positive for COVID-19---Donald Trump
-----------------------------------------------------------
Keep running between the raindrops.
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us

Unread postby REAL Green » Tue 20 Oct 2020, 07:21:48

Total Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products into the U.S.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... TNTUS2&f=M
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
2020 -605 -1,526 -1,276 -1,216 939 675 -566
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