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China is finished... This is the End of China

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Re: China is finished... This is the End of China

Unread postby REAL Green » Mon 12 Oct 2020, 06:49:08

This article below shows that the west is not the only one in a crisis of legitimacy at the core of its social fabric. China is also having social, political, and economic pain.

Personally, I see all human systems in a crisis of legitimacy because they do not embrace and emulate planetary reality of a decline process. We are aware the issues with the modern brown but the modern green is little better. This process is with planetary systems that are in flux as well as the web of life that is in a process of succession through extinction and the reduction of complexity in various ecosystems. The planetary hydrological, nutrient, and carbon systems have been forced by humans. The climatic system and ocean system are now in abrupt change. Altogether this represent a great turning human civilization will have no choice but to adapt to or fail.

What this should mean for humans is a new earth based social system complete with an adapted economics and political framework. Except this kind of change will have far reching consequences that must be paid IOW loss. This is not going to be a human force of change because humans are self-organizing with growth in a global system of competitive cooperation in a globalism of price dominant economies of scale. This of course cannot last and will over time break down not because of humans but because the planet will enforce diminishing returns upon growth and the efficiency of tech. Once these two forces of human manifest destiny go from growth influence to decline influence then social legitimacy will be destroyed.

This time frame is difficult to predict but there is a trend that can be ascertained. Growth and tech are the problem now because diminishing returns is going nonlinear in an approach to negative utility. How humans react to this will be fateful. I suspect regionally adaptations will occur dependent on particular systems and environmental forces. Overall if humans cannot go through a spiritual transformation, they will suffer a dramatic loss of complexity with large amount of people disenfranchised from basics of support with food, shelter, and security.

“Escobar: Will Confucius Marry Marx In China?”
http://thesaker.is/will-confucius-marry-marx/

“He identifies two key sources for the Chinese problem: “On the one hand, there is the project of cultural restoration through which Chinese leader Xi Jinping attempts to restore ‘Confucian legitimacy’ or the traditional ‘Mandate of Heaven’; on the other hand, Xi refuses to start any political reforms, because it is his top priority to preserve the existing political system, i.e., a ruling system derived mainly from an alien source, Bolshevik Russia.” Ay, there’s the rub: “The two objectives are totally incompatible”… Essentially, the Mandate of Heaven is “an ancient Chinese belief that tian [ heaven, but not the Christian heaven, complete with an omniscient God] grants the emperor the right to rule based on their moral quality and ability to govern well and fairly.” The beauty of it is that the mandate does not require a divine connection or noble bloodline, and has no time limit. Chinese scholars have always interpreted the mandate as a way to fight abuse of power. The overall crucial point is that, unlike in the West, the Chinese view of history is cyclical, not linear: “Legitimacy is in fact a never-ending process of moral self-adjustment.”… Xiang also shows how the ideological foundation for Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations began to veer towards individualist liberalism while “Confucius never wavered from a position against individualism, for the role of the economy is to ‘enrich people’ as a whole, not specific individuals.”… Will Confucius marry Marx? And that brings us to post-modern China. Xiang stress how a popular consensus in China is that the Communist Party is “neither Marxist nor capitalist, and its moral standard has little to do with the Confucian value system”. Consequently, the Mandate of Heaven is “seriously damaged”. The problem is that “marrying Marxism and Confucianism is too dangerous”. Xiang identifies the fundamental flaw of the Chinese wealth distribution “in a system that guarantees a structural process of unfair (and illegal) wealth transfer, from the people who contribute labor to the production of wealth to the people who do not.” He argues that, “deviation from Confucian traditional values explains the roots of the income distribution problem in China better than the Weberian theories which tried to establish a clear linkage between democracy and fair income distribution”… Xiang argues that the current Chinese hybrid system, “dominated by a cancerous alien organ of Russian Bolshevism, is not sustainable without drastic reforms to create a pluralist republican system. Yet these reforms should not be conditioned upon eliminating traditional political values.” So is the CCP capable of successfully merging Confucianism and Marxism-Leninism? Forging a unique, Chinese, Third Way? That’s not only the major theme for Xiang’s subsequent books: that’s a question for the ages.”
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Re: China is finished... This is the End of China

Unread postby bochen787 » Mon 12 Oct 2020, 11:00:20

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... story.html

Trump promised to bring China to heel. He didn’t and the result is a pitched conflict between the world’s two major powers.

Trump had made China-bashing a pillar of his 2016 campaign, lambasting the bilateral trade deficit as evidence that Beijing had stolen manufacturing jobs and accusing China of undervaluing its currency, even though experts said Beijing had stopped doing so.

Inside the administration, aides were divided over lavishing Xi with a highly personalized summit, at which Trump’s granddaughter Arabella, the daughter of White House senior advisers Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump, serenaded Xi in Mandarin. President Barack Obama had tried a similar move in 2013, shortly after Xi assumed the Chinese premiership, hosting him at the Sunnylands estate in Southern California, an effort most analysts judged as an ultimately fruitless attempt to establish openness and trust.

Trump’s summit “was built upon the assumption that personal chemistry would compel Xi to override his national interests,” said Ryan Hass, a Brookings Institution analyst who served as China director on the National Security Council in the Obama administration. “I’ve spent a fair bit of time around Xi, and he’s the most ruthless, coldblooded calculator of his national interests that I’ve ever met.”
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Re: China is finished... This is the End of China

Unread postby bochen787 » Mon 12 Oct 2020, 20:33:44

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... e-with-u-s

‘Time Is on China’s Side’ in Power Struggle With U.S.

https://i.imgur.com/aQ2FFCk.jpg

Image

“Time is on China’s side and it’s not on the United States’ side, for various developments,” Dalio said Monday in a conversation with New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman at the Milken Institute Global Conference. “What’s going to be a difficult situation in the new administration is destiny is on the side of China growing, and doing better probably.”
Key Speakers At The 2019 Milken Conference

Ray Dalio

Photographer: Patrick T. Fallon/Bloomberg

He noted how China’s economy has rebounded faster during the pandemic than that of the U.S. and that the listing of “hot” companies on Chinese stock markets is attracting capital. He also said China’s higher interest rates mean the nation is in a better position of “not having to print money.”

In July, Dalio warned in a LinkedIn post that tensions between the U.S. and China could spiral into an armed conflict, saying there’s “usually an economic war” before “a shooting war.” Later that month, he said the two nations may find themselves ensnared in a “capital war” that could hurt the dollar.

He reiterated those views on Monday.

“You’re going to see the internationalization of the renminbi, which was intentionally not developed before, because it is a threat to the American world order,” said Dalio, 71.
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Re: China is finished... This is the End of China

Unread postby bochen787 » Tue 13 Oct 2020, 14:05:04

Chinese nominal GDP will be about 90% of US nominal GDP by the end of 2025.

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO ... &ds=.&br=1


Chinese nominal GDP will be larger than European Union nominal GDP by the end of this year.
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO ... &ds=.&br=1
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Re: China is finished... This is the End of China

Unread postby REAL Green » Tue 13 Oct 2020, 16:41:35

bochen787 wrote:Chinese nominal GDP will be about 90% of US nominal GDP by the end of 2025.

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO ... &ds=.&br=1


Chinese nominal GDP will be larger than European Union nominal GDP by the end of this year.
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO ... &ds=.&br=1


Bo Chen Juan, numbers are just part of the story plus China's numbers are unreliable. Stop stroking yourself
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Re: China is finished... This is the End of China

Unread postby bochen787 » Tue 13 Oct 2020, 22:28:17

REAL Green wrote:
bochen787 wrote:Chinese nominal GDP will be about 90% of US nominal GDP by the end of 2025.

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO ... &ds=.&br=1


Chinese nominal GDP will be larger than European Union nominal GDP by the end of this year.
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO ... &ds=.&br=1


Bo Chen Juan, numbers are just part of the story plus China's numbers are unreliable. Stop stroking yourself


Nominal GDP is not even the true reflection, for GDP PPP it is this now:


Image
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Re: China is finished... This is the End of China

Unread postby bochen787 » Wed 14 Oct 2020, 01:57:36

https://sputniknews.com/world/202010141 ... ment-says/

Russia, China and Cuba elected to UN Human Rights Council
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Re: China is finished... This is the End of China

Unread postby bochen787 » Fri 16 Oct 2020, 01:40:48

Huawei Plays Matador to Trump's Bull | Opinion
David P. Goldman , Deputy editor and columnist, Asia Times
On 10/14/20 at 7:00 AM EDT

Bulls usually lose bullfights not because they fail to charge, but because they charge at the matador's cape rather than at the matador himself. President Trump has no qualms about charging at China's national champion Huawei, but he is charging at the equivalent of the matador's cape.

Consider Huawei's handset business, which depends on high-end chips manufactured by Taiwanese foundries. Because the Taiwanese use some American equipment to manufacture the chips, the U.S. has imposed an effective blockade on Huawei's outsourcing, and China does not (yet) have the domestic capability to make high-end chips. A similar ban blocks Huawei's access to key American chip-design software.

Huawei will lose market share in the low-margin handset business, and Chinese competitors like Xiaomi will pick up the slack (which explains why the latter's stock price has jumped this year from HK$8 to HK$22). Huawei will have little difficulty using older chips for 5G base stations, installing the lion's share of the six million units that China has ordered to build out its 5G network over the next two years.

Huawei's most important business, though, will emerge unscathed from U.S. sanctions. American strategists think that Huawei is a telecom equipment company. Among other things, Huawei is the world's largest telecom equipment manufacturer, with a 31 percent market share during the first half of 2020—more than the combined share of the second and third position companies, Ericsson and Nokia. Huawei, though, is first and foremost a big data and artificial intelligence (AI) company—the most inventive and imaginative one in the world. Let's call this combination "BD/AI," for short.

BD/AI has already had world-moving consequences in health applications. For example: China will test all nine million inhabitants of Qingdao for coronavirus over five days, after medical authorities detected nine cases of infection. The United States, meanwhile, was reporting an average of about 50,000 cases per day as of earlier this week. Notably, the U.S. has done far more testing than China per capita, with more than 357,000 tests per million of population to date, compared to just 111,000 in China, according to Worldometers.info. Apart from selective, short-term lockdowns, life in China has returned to normal, with more than half a million tourist journeys booked during last week's mid-autumn holiday—all while much of daily life in America remains paralyzed by the pandemic.

The difference lies in data and use of AI to analyze the data. China required far fewer coronavirus tests per capita because its AI systems identified prospective clusters of infection. Small amounts of selective forensic testing guided by AI forecasts preempted larger outbreaks—and where smaller outbreaks occurred, massive testing extinguished the spread of the virus.

If AI is the engine of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, data is the engine's fuel. Gathering and porting data into a usable framework, as Huawei Chief Technology Officer Paul Scanlan explained in my recent book, is the "control point" in today's world economy. There's no secret about this, no recondite conspiracy, no subtle design. Huawei proclaims its intentions at conferences streamed live on the web, and encapsulated in YouTube videos like this one.

Oil determined much of the geostrategy of the past century. Hitler sent the German army south toward the oil-rich Caucasus, rather than east towards Moscow in 1942, and the British fought Rommel in North Africa to protect the Suez Canal route for its oil tankers. Russia and the United States wrangled over the oil-rich Middle East throughout the Cold War. The Arab oil boycott of 1973 sent the U.S. into recession and near defeat in the Cold War; the collapse of oil prices in the 1980s hastened the fall of the Soviet Union. All the old geopolitical models arose from concern over trade routes as control points for the transshipment of oil. They are now as obsolete as Macedonian phalanx tactics in the 3rd century B.C.E., or Napoleonic artillery manuals.

Data is now the control point. A central premise of American policy toward China is that Huawei intends to steal Western data. On the contrary: China is the main collector and provider of data in the fields where it counts the most—for example, medicine. Every European pharmaceuticals company of importance has a BD/AI joint venture in China, because China has digitized the health records and sequenced the DNA of hundreds of millions of its citizens, and can correlate this data to real-time vital signs of hundreds of millions more people. To be sure, Chinese citizens have no protection by privacy laws that have made it impractical to digitize health records in the United States. This is a soluble problem, at least in theory. The technology exists—for example, through block chain accounts—to anonymize individual records while permitting data collection.

Ant Financial's 900 million customers comprise the largest consumer finance database in the world. The company's pending $40 billion initial public offering, the largest in history, reflects a multi-hundred-billion-dollar valuation that stems from Ant's capacity to analyze consumer and small-business creditworthiness in a way that may put traditional banking out of business. TikTok's two billion downloads gives its parent, ByteDance, the largest data set in the world for analysis of consumer preferences and behavior. China's "smart cities," the first large-scale 5G application, will match tens of millions of riders and packages to the location of vehicles, drastically cutting the waiting time for personal transportation and package deliveries.

As I report in my book, Scanlan explained what AI would do for manufacturing. "Let's take robotics today," he told me. "5G changes everything. Typically, 5G is spoken about in terms of download speed, but that's not the most important advantage. For industrial processes, autonomous vehicles and other applications, the latency—the time it takes for one device to acquire and respond to a signal from another device—is more important. On a factory floor today, Robot A does its instruction, passes the bit to Robot B, and it's the same thing. Now, if we put very low latency inside each of the robots—and they can be robots from different manufacturers—and put them in a room and give them the rules, like Go or like chess, to enable them to connect in real time—milliseconds, lightning fast—and then put a bit of plastic in view and say, I want you to make a plastic cup, the robots will organize themselves much better than we would have thought."
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Re: China is finished... This is the End of China

Unread postby REAL Green » Fri 16 Oct 2020, 06:08:23

bochen787 wrote:Huawei Plays Matador to Trump's Bull | Opinion
David P. Goldman , Deputy editor and columnist, Asia Times
On 10/14/20 at 7:00 AM EDT


Bo Chen Juan, where is your link?
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Re: China is finished... This is the End of China

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 24 Oct 2020, 09:23:24

If you know anything about how to organize data, then you know that it can be done wrongly. It can be done very poorly. The whole thing can be done especially poorly when one size fits all applications are foisted on people. There is this thing about parsing data that will never allow you to simply dictate terms. You have to look at what you have, and figure out what is going on. Then those solutions can be applied to similar types of uses and such. I'm afraid we are about to try force, and it won't work so well. This thing could go about as well as social media, creating intense polarization across a set of people from which money is extracted through advertising. We may attempt to pass that off as intuition, missing the true characteristics in favor of what some bias, for some arguments come with bias attached that even machine learning can't avoid, wants to see. It may not be reflective of progress at all. I bet, if we do go there, it will be difficult to pull back from it. It will last a long time, and cost many people a lot. It will be so complicated that almost no one will be able to figure out how poorly designed some things are. We will all have to hope that when we start talking about our "rights" we aren't treated the same as the BLM crowd is now.
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