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Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 24 Sep 2020, 16:37:58

Baduila wrote:Interestingly, Peak Car was about June 2018, slightly before Peak Oil in November 2018.

Image
This diagram shows the sum of car sales in the EU, USA, China and India.
After June 2028 the worldwide sales of cars began to decline. Covid 19 has accelerated the decline.

It's the thermodynamics, stupid.

Sez the idiot who can't proof read and doesn't know 2028 from 2018. Oh, and who can't tell thermodynamics from economic reality. And who refuses to understand that with the sun pouring HUGE amounts of energy into the earth EVERY SECOND, that we're not in a closed system where thermodymanics represents "a problem" re oil recovery.

Again. LOOK IN THE MIRROR to find stupid. My house cat is much more intelligent than you, since if I'm patient, it actually can learn things.

And let's pretend that COVID-19 is affecting NOTHING in the global economy, including short term auto sales.

Wow. Sheer genius. /s
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 24 Sep 2020, 19:58:33

Baduila wrote:Image
This diagram shows the sum of car sales in the EU, USA, China and India.


After thinking about this particular graphic for a little bit, I have come to the conclusion that it completely meaningless.

There is no independent variable expressed on the graph. It is just as much a random matching of two pieces of data as anything Shorty ever came up with. Much like Gail "Global peak oil in 2008!", it represents two pieces of information around which a story is built. Because the relationship between two data sets is not required, you can tell any story you wish. And Short and sock puppets do just that, manufacturing correlation where none exist...just by telling a story while waving around a graph and expecting people to be dumb enough to fall for it.

Short, or his sock puppets (and Gail), could tell their stories around this graphic with the same amount of confidence in their conclusions.

Image
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 25 Sep 2020, 11:43:20

AdamB wrote:
Baduila wrote:Image
This diagram shows the sum of car sales in the EU, USA, China and India.


After thinking about this particular graphic for a little bit, I have come to the conclusion that it completely meaningless.

There is no independent variable expressed on the graph. It is just as much a random matching of two pieces of data as anything Shorty ever came up with.

Exactly, which is why I made my comment re 2020 auto sales, re the graph. Sales in 2020 are down largely due to COVID-19, NOT because the price of oil is down. That grabbed by eye because of the big drop in Auto sales for 2020 probably made that silly graph look like a salacious thing for a clueless ETPer to post to try to claim "affordability doom".

And if anything, less need to drive and low oil prices are HELPING, not hurting auto consumers in 2020.

I just got done watching "Idiocracy", led there by a clever comment re Tesla fanbois being idiots on Seeking Alpha.

That movie's depiction of the thought processes of Americans in 500 years is a great caricature of the math "analysis" so many doomers love to try to pass off on this site as "proof" they know doom is coming (real soon now).

Plus, ironically, the chart's correlation is so weak it CLEARLY doesn't show what he wants. If oil prices strongly correlate to car sales, then why do middling oil prices go with the highest auto sales? It's nonsensical.

Not that I'd expect Baduila to actually understand the implications of the data he posts.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 25 Sep 2020, 13:35:25

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Not that I'd expect Baduila to actually understand the implications of the data he posts.


Which just happens to be exactly one of Short's ever present faults.

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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Baduila » Thu 01 Oct 2020, 14:15:31

Image

This diagram show the monthly sum of car sales for EU, USA, China and India versus time. The red line is a fit to the monthly data. In 2017 clearly a maximum exists. Since 2017, the wordwide car production has fallen by about 25%. "Peak car" has happened in 2017.
The green line is a linear fit to the production data since september 2017. Production goes down and down and down.

The date for "Peak Car" has been 2017, the date for "Peak Oil" Nov 2018.
Image Take care of the second law.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 01 Oct 2020, 18:34:24

Baduila wrote:The date for "Peak Car" has been 2017, the date for "Peak Oil" Nov 2018.


The date for peak oil was Thanksgiving, 2005. Oh yeah, and the same kind of ignorant revisionist who doesn't know when peak oil happened probably thinks the price of oil hit $0 like a year or two ago now.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby REAL Green » Sun 04 Oct 2020, 06:41:58

Crude Oil Production
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_CRD_CR ... BLPD_M.htm

Monthly-Thousand Barrels per Day

Production
Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20
12,746 12,737 12,010 10,019 10,446 10,984
realgreenadaptation.blog
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Baduila » Wed 14 Oct 2020, 15:38:40

Again, we can have a look on the new update of the projections for crude price and crude production.

Image

Nov 2018 has been the peak of oil production.
Question to the experts here : Has it been peak supply or peak demand or does the question not matter ?
Image Take care of the second law.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 14 Oct 2020, 16:05:57

Baduila wrote:Again, we can have a look on the new update of the projections for crude price and crude production.


Can we compare this answer to the old one that had $0/bbl being the answer a couple years ago? Us consumers would like one to be true, rather than the random numbers on this one, and we want to know how badly we're getting shafted by the originators of this nonsense changing their answer to our detriment.


Baduila wrote:Nov 2018 has been the peak of oil production.


The most recent one anyway.

Baduila wrote:Question to the experts here : Has it been peak supply or peak demand or does the question not matter ?


As the actual live expert that knew in real time that Shorty was confusing correlation and causation across a huge manuscript in a matter of seconds, I would say it is relevant only to those whom predicted it could happen via scarcity, as opposed to those of us who understand how a basic supply/demand chart works. This group doesn't include Shorty. Scarcity only folks have been a bit irritated when I point this out.

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