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Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 24 Sep 2020, 16:37:58

Baduila wrote:Interestingly, Peak Car was about June 2018, slightly before Peak Oil in November 2018.

Image
This diagram shows the sum of car sales in the EU, USA, China and India.
After June 2028 the worldwide sales of cars began to decline. Covid 19 has accelerated the decline.

It's the thermodynamics, stupid.

Sez the idiot who can't proof read and doesn't know 2028 from 2018. Oh, and who can't tell thermodynamics from economic reality. And who refuses to understand that with the sun pouring HUGE amounts of energy into the earth EVERY SECOND, that we're not in a closed system where thermodymanics represents "a problem" re oil recovery.

Again. LOOK IN THE MIRROR to find stupid. My house cat is much more intelligent than you, since if I'm patient, it actually can learn things.

And let's pretend that COVID-19 is affecting NOTHING in the global economy, including short term auto sales.

Wow. Sheer genius. /s
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 24 Sep 2020, 19:58:33

Baduila wrote:Image
This diagram shows the sum of car sales in the EU, USA, China and India.


After thinking about this particular graphic for a little bit, I have come to the conclusion that it completely meaningless.

There is no independent variable expressed on the graph. It is just as much a random matching of two pieces of data as anything Shorty ever came up with. Much like Gail "Global peak oil in 2008!", it represents two pieces of information around which a story is built. Because the relationship between two data sets is not required, you can tell any story you wish. And Short and sock puppets do just that, manufacturing correlation where none exist...just by telling a story while waving around a graph and expecting people to be dumb enough to fall for it.

Short, or his sock puppets (and Gail), could tell their stories around this graphic with the same amount of confidence in their conclusions.

Image
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 25 Sep 2020, 11:43:20

AdamB wrote:
Baduila wrote:Image
This diagram shows the sum of car sales in the EU, USA, China and India.


After thinking about this particular graphic for a little bit, I have come to the conclusion that it completely meaningless.

There is no independent variable expressed on the graph. It is just as much a random matching of two pieces of data as anything Shorty ever came up with.

Exactly, which is why I made my comment re 2020 auto sales, re the graph. Sales in 2020 are down largely due to COVID-19, NOT because the price of oil is down. That grabbed by eye because of the big drop in Auto sales for 2020 probably made that silly graph look like a salacious thing for a clueless ETPer to post to try to claim "affordability doom".

And if anything, less need to drive and low oil prices are HELPING, not hurting auto consumers in 2020.

I just got done watching "Idiocracy", led there by a clever comment re Tesla fanbois being idiots on Seeking Alpha.

That movie's depiction of the thought processes of Americans in 500 years is a great caricature of the math "analysis" so many doomers love to try to pass off on this site as "proof" they know doom is coming (real soon now).

Plus, ironically, the chart's correlation is so weak it CLEARLY doesn't show what he wants. If oil prices strongly correlate to car sales, then why do middling oil prices go with the highest auto sales? It's nonsensical.

Not that I'd expect Baduila to actually understand the implications of the data he posts.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 25 Sep 2020, 13:35:25

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Not that I'd expect Baduila to actually understand the implications of the data he posts.


Which just happens to be exactly one of Short's ever present faults.

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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Baduila » Thu 01 Oct 2020, 14:15:31

Image

This diagram show the monthly sum of car sales for EU, USA, China and India versus time. The red line is a fit to the monthly data. In 2017 clearly a maximum exists. Since 2017, the wordwide car production has fallen by about 25%. "Peak car" has happened in 2017.
The green line is a linear fit to the production data since september 2017. Production goes down and down and down.

The date for "Peak Car" has been 2017, the date for "Peak Oil" Nov 2018.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 01 Oct 2020, 18:34:24

Baduila wrote:The date for "Peak Car" has been 2017, the date for "Peak Oil" Nov 2018.


The date for peak oil was Thanksgiving, 2005. Oh yeah, and the same kind of ignorant revisionist who doesn't know when peak oil happened probably thinks the price of oil hit $0 like a year or two ago now.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby REAL Green » Sun 04 Oct 2020, 06:41:58

Crude Oil Production
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_CRD_CR ... BLPD_M.htm

Monthly-Thousand Barrels per Day

Production
Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20
12,746 12,737 12,010 10,019 10,446 10,984
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Baduila » Wed 14 Oct 2020, 15:38:40

Again, we can have a look on the new update of the projections for crude price and crude production.

Image

Nov 2018 has been the peak of oil production.
Question to the experts here : Has it been peak supply or peak demand or does the question not matter ?
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 14 Oct 2020, 16:05:57

Baduila wrote:Again, we can have a look on the new update of the projections for crude price and crude production.


Can we compare this answer to the old one that had $0/bbl being the answer a couple years ago? Us consumers would like one to be true, rather than the random numbers on this one, and we want to know how badly we're getting shafted by the originators of this nonsense changing their answer to our detriment.


Baduila wrote:Nov 2018 has been the peak of oil production.


The most recent one anyway.

Baduila wrote:Question to the experts here : Has it been peak supply or peak demand or does the question not matter ?


As the actual live expert that knew in real time that Shorty was confusing correlation and causation across a huge manuscript in a matter of seconds, I would say it is relevant only to those whom predicted it could happen via scarcity, as opposed to those of us who understand how a basic supply/demand chart works. This group doesn't include Shorty. Scarcity only folks have been a bit irritated when I point this out.

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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby dcoyne78 » Sun 01 Nov 2020, 13:53:45

See

https://www.eia.gov/international/data/ ... 00&ev=true

So far Nov 2018, or 2018Q4 or 2018 for full year has been the peak based on EIA data, as to the future, I expect World output might increase, but it is likely a peak in World output will occur before 2030. I expect oil prices will rise and we will gradually transition to alternatives to crude for transport.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 01 Nov 2020, 15:31:06

dcoyne78 wrote:See

So far Nov 2018, or 2018Q4 or 2018 for full year has been the peak based on EIA data, as to the future, I expect World output might increase, but it is likely a peak in World output will occur before 2030. I expect oil prices will rise and we will gradually transition to alternatives to crude for transport.


Peak oil was far cooler when it led to MZBs wandering the highways, suburban hordes fleeing to the countryside to be met by booby traps, homemade claymores and gunfire, all the prepping/farming peak oil contingent, I mean the variety was great!

Instead one of the prior claimed peak oils (call it TODs 2008 one) gave us the Volt and the likes of Tesla, and normal folks like me have been EVing around for 6 years now. The gradual transition is here, and currently is taking over entire countries...Norway springs to mind.

Nowadays climate change seems to have vacuumed up all the Happy McPeaksters.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby REAL Green » Sun 01 Nov 2020, 15:44:30

AdamB wrote:Instead one of the prior claimed peak oils (call it TODs 2008 one) gave us the Volt and the likes of Tesla, and normal folks like me have been EVing around for 6 years now. The gradual transition is here, and currently is taking over entire countries...Norway springs to mind. Nowadays climate change seems to have vacuumed up all the Happy McPeaksters.


Hilarious, AdamEV pats himself on the back. He is an EV guy and they will save us with the "Transition". PO is dead the transition is here. Happy days folks!!! LMFAO. Hey, I plan on buying an EV next year but I don't pat myself on the back and strut around the endzone like a fruit.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 01 Nov 2020, 17:03:23

REAL Green wrote:Hilarious, AdamEV pats himself on the back. He is an EV guy and they will save us with the "Transition".


I am not a "they". I'm just a guy who took advantage of automobiles manufactured that don't always require liquid fuels. And I don't know to what "Transition" you refer, is this new peak oil doomer code for the Rapture they have been praying and dreaming of since the modern Happy McPeakster movement began circa 1990?

REAL Green wrote: PO is dead the transition is here.


HALLULUAH!!! Praise be the Rapture!

REAL Green wrote:Hey, I plan on buying an EV next year but I don't pat myself on the back and strut around the endzone like a fruit.


Copycat. How many solar panels are you planning on installing to fuel it with? Or are you just a fair weather, "give me my grid or give me death!" faux green doomer type?
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby REAL Green » Sun 01 Nov 2020, 17:31:06

AdamB wrote:Copycat. How many solar panels are you planning on installing to fuel it with? Or are you just a fair weather, "give me my grid or give me death!" faux green doomer type?


I have 12 pannels, inverter, and batteries for the house. Eventually once I digest the EV purchase I will look into powering my EV with pannels. All of us are "faux green" some more than others. I don't know much about you other than you are a cocky tech guy who thinks his poop don't smell. I would venture to say my foot print blows yours away especially considering I am a producer and I do it low carbon. I am a conservationist not only with my personal energy choices but I specialize in habitat restoration and maintenance. I am a doomer but lite. I think you are jealous of doomers becuase you attack them constantly and in a belittling way almost to deflect your own prep nakedness. I can just picture you in shock if SHTF. LOL.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 01 Nov 2020, 18:23:28

REAL Green wrote:
AdamB wrote:Copycat. How many solar panels are you planning on installing to fuel it with? Or are you just a fair weather, "give me my grid or give me death!" faux green doomer type?


I have 12 pannels, inverter, and batteries for the house. Eventually once I digest the EV purchase I will look into powering my EV with pannels.


I haven't succeeded in completely powering the car from the panels. I accepted a decade ago when I downsized the household that the panels would replace some, but not all, grid fired power. I can't get much beyond 25% of my electrical usage in any given month coming from the panels.

REAL Green wrote: All of us are "faux green" some more than others. I don't know much about you other than you are a cocky tech guy who thinks his poop don't smell.


I'm not a tech guy. But as a scientist working with data, I know that for all the talk of all the back to earth/prepper/I wanna be Amish types on the entire planet, the atmospheric CO2 chart atop Mauna Loa continues to trend upwards.

REAL Green wrote: I would venture to say my foot print blows yours away especially considering I am a producer and I do it low carbon.


Probably true. And so what? This isn't about relative differences between EV owners and EV wanna be owners, this is about the data coming from atop Mauna Loa. All the rest of it is verbal diarrhea.

REAL Green wrote:I think you are jealous of doomers becuase you attack them constantly and in a belittling way almost to deflect your own prep nakedness. I can just picture you in shock if SHTF. LOL.


Define SHTF and how someone who grew up poor on a farm in Appalachia hasn't already seen it. No running water in winter, if you wanted protein you shot it or trapped it, a hobby farm isn't when you need it both to grow your food and some you can sell. We just called it life. Modern day folks who need solar panels for SHTF, geez talk about pampered pussies, posting on the internet. Can you imagine? The internet!

I am not jealous of doomers, I find them fascinating, from a psychological perspective. As far as the value of their preps, Happy McDoomers and their prepping schemes weren't of much value during all the peak oils in this century, so it is difficult to claim they know much of value on the topic within the peak oil context. I began mitigating my discretionary transport fuel expenditures a long time ago, and have been quite happy with those prepping results. But I've never been one of those Rapture doomer types, no.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby REAL Green » Sun 01 Nov 2020, 19:05:56

AdamB wrote:I haven't succeeded in completely powering the car from the panels. I accepted a decade ago when I downsized the household that the panels would replace some, but not all, grid fired power. I can't get much beyond 25% of my electrical usage in any given month coming from the panels.


Certain times of the year I achieve 50% of electrical usage but a yearly average is probably 35%. I am curious are you grid tied and just feeding the grid and using the grid to charge the EV? That is likely the cheapest route for many. I would like to have a stand alone system so I can be off grid partially for my transport. Solar power is not going to be enough during those endless grey winter months so I will use the grid too. What I want is to have transport versatility and resilience. We will keep the wife's Outback. I would like to have a 30HP size electric farm tractor but nothing on the market currently. I am happy with my solar but it does not pencil out. Grid tied solar does but you are dark when the power goes off. I am also happy with my Heatmaster wood boiler that is a highly efficient wood gasifier. Again when you consider your opportunity cost of labor and dollars invested in equipment wood does not pencil out either. I love wood heat so it has value to me. I am also self-sufficient heating wise since I have a lifetime of wood. I am a green prepper becuase I enjoy the lifestyle not because it is going to save me.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 01 Nov 2020, 20:13:46

REAL Green wrote:Certain times of the year I achieve 50% of electrical usage but a yearly average is probably 35%. I am curious are you grid tied and just feeding the grid and using the grid to charge the EV?


Because my panel output is relatively low compared to overall household usage (with or without the EV), electricity flows into the house and feeds whatever is needed. I can occasionally spin the meter backwards, but it only happens under certain conditions, panels being fed at capacity, no EV charging going on, low household use at the same time, etc etc.

REAL Green wrote: Grid tied solar does but you are dark when the power goes off.


Backup NG fired generation. I was in Vienna, VA in July, 2012 when the big derecho hit. Power out all over the place, could barely get to the airport and out of town. NG fired backup generators became quite popular for awhile. More than a couple folks on my block installed them, but more because of power outages in snowstorms. Hooked to the NG line, you can buy a manual or auto-activated type, dual fuel if you want. I have a friend who went whole hog after a snow storm took out power for a few days, auto-switching, dual fuel, enough output to run the entire house and then some. Overkill. I kept mine simple and smaller, NG only, manual switchover, 10kw for less than $5Gs.

REAL Green wrote:I am also happy with my Heatmaster wood boiler that is a highly efficient wood gasifier. Again when you consider your opportunity cost of labor and dollars invested in equipment wood does not pencil out either. I love wood heat so it has value to me.


Tried wood heat for a few years in the old place, prior to down sizing. Big old stove. It worked okay in not too cold conditions, the wife loved the heat quality, but it was a 4000sf 3 story, and the freeze line just had too much potential to make it inside the walls during a cold snap. No way of moving the warm air to the far side of the house, let alone the garage.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby REAL Green » Mon 02 Nov 2020, 05:55:17

AdamB wrote:Because my panel output is relatively low compared to overall household usage (with or without the EV), electricity flows into the house and feeds whatever is needed. I can occasionally spin the meter backwards, but it only happens under certain conditions, panels being fed at capacity, no EV charging going on, low household use at the same time, etc etc.


OK, grid tied. I went batteries and inverter becuase it ties in with my green prepping activities. This also doubled my cost.

AdamB wrote:Backup NG fired generation...I kept mine simple and smaller, NG only, manual switchover, 10kw for less than $5Gs.


Nat gas generators are a great idea for the homeowner that can't keep fuel tanks. My brother has a Cat nat gas gen system. No worries about running out of fuel at least with your normal black outs. A SHTF will be a different story if the gas system goes dry. I have a cool diesel welder that is also a generator. I have 600gal diesel and 500 gas stored on the farm. I will be able to charge my batteries if an extended black out hits. The kitchen downstairs has propane to cook with and if that runs out I have ways to cook with wood and charcoal. I have lots of charcoal stored. The stuff won't go bad. I agree simple and smaller is all you need. In a crisis keep the frig cool and be able to have some light when you need it.


AdamB wrote:Tried wood heat for a few years in the old place, prior to down sizing. Big old stove. It worked okay in not too cold conditions, the wife loved the heat quality, but it was a 4000sf 3 story, and the freeze line just had too much potential to make it inside the walls during a cold snap. No way of moving the warm air to the far side of the house, let alone the garage.


No problems with my Heatmaster wood stove. I have water to forced air which can warm things up quick. I also have water to water radiators downstairs. These are manually activated with simple levers. Once they warm things up a stable temp is achieved with the concrete downstairs. My shop is infloor heat with insulated concrete. The stove has duel circuits that heat shop and house. It is a great system. My solar runs the pumps and fans. This stove also supplies heated water to the taps via a water to water heat exchanger. In the summer the boiler does not burn wood and instead I use evacuated tubes to heat water in the tank during hot part of the year. I also have a nice soapstone fireplace insert with blower to keep the great room/kitchen toasty in the really cold periods. I have backup electric heat that is my mini split AC/Heat plus electric space heaters so I can leave. I can run the mini-split with solar which is a great way to get max solar during good solar days. The boiler has glycol in it so it won't freeze. When I renovated this old house I did max insulation and the best in class windows. It is well insulated. The house is also a split level with the downstairs partially in ground. All this is expensive but again ties in with my green prepping. Solar, wood heat, and max insulation cost me roughly $40K. A normal family can't justify these expenses in the type of world we live in. One of the main reasons is home value. This stuff does not appraise out. A big house appraises out. A big swimming pool appraises but not an efficient green one at least here in the Ozarks. I imagine this is a different story on west coast.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Baduila » Thu 12 Nov 2020, 10:50:28

You can finish to wait desperately for the update, here it is:

Image

OPEC+ has successfully stabilized the oil price at 40 $/bbl. 40 is better for them than 50, to ensure, that fracking will die.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 12 Nov 2020, 13:15:07

Baduila wrote:You can finish to wait desperately for the update, here it is:

Image

OPEC+ has successfully stabilized the oil price at 40 $/bbl. 40 is better for them than 50, to ensure, that fracking will die.

AS IF, when oil returns to more normal prices from, say, $50 to $70 or so when the global economy gets back to more or less normal in roughly a couple years as Covid-19 is beaten down greatly by vaccines and better treatments, fracking won't return when oil producers see it as hugely beneficial.

But dream on as you have a very dead horse to club ad nauseam.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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