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Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 05 Feb 2020, 10:57:37

Great to hear that Y has never used a blanket! :D
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 05 Feb 2020, 11:34:33

Logarithmic is the mathematical relationship most applicable to declining warming potential with increased CO2 concentration.


There is quite a difference between a logarithmic function y = a+b ln(x), and an exponential function y = ab^x. If one plots the IIPC data of mass_CO2 vs. temperature the exponential function produces a much higher correlation coefficient than the logarithmic. Without theoretical considerations to define the form of the curve, the best fit case is superior. We would then have to conclude that increasing CO2 is having a diminishing effect on temperature increases.

It appears to be rather sketchy information from which to ask an entire civilization to change its behavior; behavior which it isn't going change anyway! The anthropogenic proponents of climate change where pushing on a string to begin with.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby Cog » Wed 05 Feb 2020, 11:55:07

Hey shorty. When are you going to pay off your wager?
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 05 Feb 2020, 23:05:38

shortonoil wrote:
Logarithmic is the mathematical relationship most applicable to declining warming potential with increased CO2 concentration.


There is quite a difference between a logarithmic function y = a+b ln(x), and an exponential function y = ab^x. If one plots the IIPC data of mass_CO2 vs. temperature the exponential function produces a much higher correlation coefficient than the logarithmic. Without theoretical considerations to define the form of the curve, the best fit case is superior. We would then have to conclude that increasing CO2 is having a diminishing effect on temperature increases.

It appears to be rather sketchy information from which to ask an entire civilization to change its behavior; behavior which it isn't going change anyway! The anthropogenic proponents of climate change where pushing on a string to begin with.

Shorty tries to pretend he's an expert in everything he blabbers about. Like that he knows more about oil production than all the experts, even as he spouts frequent nonsense about oil production, trying to prop up his failed ETP nonsense. Or that he knows more about AGW than the entire body of science, without actually saying anything meaningful, or giving any citations, much less credible ones. Or that he's an expert on the Coronavirus, re conspiracy theory nonsense -- kind of like how he uses economic conspiracy theory nonsense as an excuse when his ETP predictions fail.

We should all be SO impressed by all his wisdom in such areas. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby jawagord » Thu 06 Feb 2020, 15:28:47

dohboi wrote:Yes, jawa, that is one of the fingerprints of warming from ghg's (rather than, for example, increases in insolation).

Night time (that is, minimum) temperatures rise faster than day time temps, winters warm faster than summers, and poles warm faster than the tropics...all already happening and all exactly the opposite of what one would expect if the heating were primarily because of an increase in solar radiation.


Careful Dohboi, you are on the cusp of a brain imploding epiphany if you are agreeing the largest warming component of climate change is slightly less cold Canadian and Russian winter nights! Can't be much warming left for the rest of the planet, business as usual for 95% of the world's population and a good thing for the other 5%.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 06 Feb 2020, 17:53:09

outcast said;
blah, blah, blah, and his usual gibberish.What ever produced that as a characteristic must have been terrible. A virus?


Careful Dohboi, you are on the cusp of a brain imploding epiphany if you are agreeing the largest warming component of climate change is slightly less cold Canadian and Russian winter nights! Can't be much warming left for the rest of the planet, business as usual for 95% of the world's population and a good thing for the other 5%.


We have 33 years of a Solar Minimum ahead of us. The warming resulting from anthropogenic intrusion will be canceled out by the Solar output decline effect. We know what the last mini ice-ages looked like. We have climatologist's projections for tomorrow. Net affect, about zero (0). We have 33 years to figure out what to do next? A lunar base to mine Helium 3 would be a good start. The world only needs 1,000 tons per year, then we can ditch fossil fuels and their very toxic bi-products. Energy production from Helium3 has almost no bi-products, and the moon has 1,000 years worth;- doing nothing but sitting there and soaking up sun light. For a species technology is a one way street. Once you start down it you can't back up! It increases your ability to consume resources, and technology is how you get them.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 06 Feb 2020, 22:15:51

I guess I'll just leave this thread for the idiots to wallow in for a while.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby Yonnipun » Fri 07 Feb 2020, 04:33:51

dohboi wrote:I guess I'll just leave this thread for the idiots to wallow in for a while.


Dohboi, you have been fooled. I myself also was but then I started to investigate it futher and thank god, turns out that global warming is not possible. It is simple physics. Atmospheric gases have no ability to rise the average temperature of earth.
I also explained why blankets do not work in space. Blankets are for conduction and convection but earth is in space and there is only radiation. Absolutely no conduction and convection in space. Also, for example, If you put a blanket on the rock the temperature of the rock would not rise compared to a rock that has no blanket. Insulation is not an energy source. The rock with blanket would be in fact cooler on a sunny day because sun can not heat the rock as good anymore.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 07 Feb 2020, 09:45:22

I guess I'll just leave this thread for the idiots to wallow in for a while.


Should we notify NASA that there is no Solar Minimum occurring, or that all those mini-ice ages had nothing to do with them? We have spent untold $billions on research, and all we had to do was read your threads! The learning curve is so, so steep.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby GoghGoner » Tue 07 Apr 2020, 08:31:12

I don't think I have ever commented on this thread but interesting article. Maybe all the doom is here.

Methane Emissions Hit a New Record and Scientists Can’t Say Why


“Last year’s jump in methane is one of the biggest we’ve seen over the past twenty years,” said Rob Jackson, professor of Earth system science at Stanford University and chair of the Global Carbon Project. “It’s too early to say why, but increases from both agriculture and natural gas use are likely. Natural gas consumption surged more than two percent last year.”
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby Azothius » Tue 07 Apr 2020, 11:23:30

GoghGoner wrote:I don't think I have ever commented on this thread but interesting article. Maybe all the doom is here.

Methane Emissions Hit a New Record and Scientists Can’t Say Why


“Last year’s jump in methane is one of the biggest we’ve seen over the past twenty years,” said Rob Jackson, professor of Earth system science at Stanford University and chair of the Global Carbon Project. “It’s too early to say why, but increases from both agriculture and natural gas use are likely. Natural gas consumption surged more than two percent last year.”


Perhaps share this on Tanada's "Methane Thread". He/She has considerable insight into this subject.

Will just point out that increases in methane are parts per billion, whereas increases in CO2 are in parts per million. Thus far there are incremental increases in methane, though many discuss the potential for catastrophic increases if methane hydrates are abruptly released from Arctic seabed.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 13 Aug 2020, 16:51:44

Yet another negative (damping) feedback turning in to a positive (exacerbating, re-inforcing) one.

The linked reference, and associated article, indicate that tropical forests are likely to transitions from carbon sinks to carbon sources much sooner than previously assumed by consensus climate science; which implies that ECS by 2100 may be greater than previously assumed:

Nottingham, A.T., Meir, P., Velasquez, E. et al. Soil carbon loss by experimental warming in a tropical forest. Nature 584, 234–237 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2566-4

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2566-4

Abstract: "Tropical soils contain one-third of the carbon stored in soils globally, so destabilization of soil organic matter caused by the warming predicted for tropical regions this century could accelerate climate change by releasing additional carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere. Theory predicts that warming should cause only modest carbon loss from tropical soils relative to those at higher latitudes, but there have been no warming experiments in tropical forests to test this. Here we show that in situ experimental warming of a lowland tropical forest soil on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, caused an unexpectedly large increase in soil CO2 emissions. Two years of warming of the whole soil profile by four degrees Celsius increased CO2 emissions by 55 per cent compared to soils at ambient temperature. The additional CO2 originated from heterotrophic rather than autotrophic sources, and equated to a loss of 8.2 ± 4.2 (one standard error) tonnes of carbon per hectare per year from the breakdown of soil organic matter. During this time, we detected no acclimation of respiration rates, no thermal compensation or change in the temperature sensitivity of enzyme activities, and no change in microbial carbon-use efficiency. These results demonstrate that soil carbon in tropical forests is highly sensitive to warming, creating a potentially substantial positive feedback to climate change."

See also:

Title: "Carbon dioxide loss from tropical soils increases on warming" by Eric Davidson

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02266-9

Extract: "Besides the clear take-home message that the responses of soil respiration processes under climate change should not be represented in Earth-system models only by simple Q10 or Arrhenius functions, Nottingham and co-workers’ study adds to recently accumulating evidence that tropical forests are unlikely to continue indefinitely to be carbon sinks as the world warms. Tropical soil carbon does not receive as much attention as do the large and vulnerable soil-carbon stocks at high latitudes, which pose major concerns as a potential source of positive feedback to climate change. But tropical-forest soils also contain substantial carbon stores that might be more vulnerable to loss in a warming world than was previously recognized."
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 13 Aug 2020, 17:57:16

dohboi wrote:much sooner than previously assumed


Yet more "worse/faster than previously predicted" language that has shown up on the news pretty much daily for the last decade at least. Climate scientists chronically underplay their models to the point of negligence.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 29 Sep 2020, 04:11:59

And yet another major feedback:

Ocean Stratification is Not Good News. Very Not Good.


https://climatecrocks.com/2020/09/28/oc ... -not-good/

This seemingly technical finding has profound and troubling implications. The more stable the upper ocean, the less vertical mixing that takes place. This mixing is a primary means by which the ocean buries warming surface waters. So the surface warms up even faster. It’s what we call a “positive feedback”—a vicious cycle.

Our study suggests that key positive feedbacks (amplifying factors) related to reduced ocean heat might lead to more rapid surface warming in the decades ahead than many of the models predict.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 29 Sep 2020, 08:10:12

Oh no not hockey stick Mann again!
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 27 Oct 2020, 20:50:34

More news, bad news, from the arctic re: methane.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/202 ... tists-find

Remember Cid Yama?
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 28 Oct 2020, 04:27:44

Newfie wrote:More news, bad news, from the arctic re: methane.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/202 ... tists-find

Remember Cid Yama?

From the article:
At this moment, there is unlikely to be any major impact on global warming, but the point is that this process has now been triggered. This East Siberian slope methane hydrate system has been perturbed and the process will be ongoing,” said the Swedish scientist Örjan Gustafsson, of Stockholm University, in a satellite call from the vessel.

I also question if the process has been triggered as they assert or has been ongoing for decades without anyone up there measuring things to know about it?
And finally what if anything can we do about it that doesn't involve killing three billion people?
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