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Miocene Anthropocene Future

Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Subjectivist » Wed 08 Jul 2020, 11:38:40

Ibon wrote:
Subjectivist wrote:Many days lately I just wake up wishing the rapid climate shift would happen so we can move on to adaptation. As long as they keep talking about limiting change they are delaying the necessary adaptation. Nobody is going to close the thousands of coal burning power stations in the time necessary to prevent the change. Pretending they will just delays facing reality!


Your sentiment is shared almost universally by all who feel entrapped by the inertia that wont budge. And so this impulse to wish to burn the house down and have a renaissance rise from the ashes of those who come out on the other end.

There is a biblical narrative to this wish. Some great flood or fire or plague or war that cleanses the masses who have gone astray, the survivors to once again yield under the fold of a merciful god.

I entertain this narrative and find myself willing to yield to this merciful god, an imperfect and not all knowing god who has to study a bit more about ecology before unleashing his new and revised commandments.


One of the first commands God gave Adam was to tend his garden and protect it. That is the root of my environmental beliefs and what I see as humanities greatest failure.

NKJV-Gen:2-15 wrote:Then the LORD God took the man and put him in the garden of Eden to tend and keep it.
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby jawagord » Wed 08 Jul 2020, 15:07:32

REAL Green wrote:
jawagord wrote:Seems to be some confusion here Orly, looks like a lot of record crop production again in 2020? Maybe instead of wallowing in bogus NCA predictions from 2014 we should look at the actual crop reports?


Ah, you are being a bit prejudiced aren't you. Where are the reports that show decline? LOL. My reference stands going forward. If you like you can cherry pick your numbers and feel safe. Jaw, have you ever raised anything let alone farmed? I doubt it. If you had then you would see all these optimistic projections for crop productivity going up are not legit even with a stable climate. Add in the things I referenced and there are some serious food issues ahead. When will these happen? That is difficult to tell but the facts are that food production is stalling out not the other way around. The forecast are it needs to do something like double by 2050 to accommodate all the new people and the increased affluence of places like Asia. BTW, so it was a good wheat year. There is a lot more to global food production than wheat. OH, Jaw, tell me how the oceans are doing. That was not even mentioned in my reference but there the news is horrible.


When it comes to crop reports there’s a whole cherry tree of good news to pick from, but doomers don’t want to see or admit the truth, which is crop yields continue to trend upwards because farmers are constantly improving crop yields by using better seed varieties, fertilizers, farming techniques, it’s called the green revolution and it continues. I grew up in a farming community, my grandparents were farmers, my aunts and uncles were mostly farmers, my brother-in-law’s were farmers, some of my cousins are still farmers so while I’m an engineer I’ve spent some time on the farm. If the world has a food problem it’s not with growing food, it’s with food affordability according to World Hunger. Now why are you trying to switch the conversation to oceans? It tells me you are giving up on the farming debate as your doomer scenario is not supported by the facts that crop production keeps increasing so you deflect to another topic with an anecdotal oceans statement. LOL

Does the world produce enough food to feed everyone?

The world produces enough food to feed everyone. For the world as a whole, per capita caloric availability and food diversity (the variety of food groups in a diet) have increased between the 1960s and 2011 (FAO, 2017). This growth in food availability, along with improved access to food, helped reduce the percentage of chronically undernourished people in lower-middle-income countries from about 30 percent in the 1990-92 to about 13 percent two decades later (FAO, 2017). A principal problem is that many people in the world still do not have sufficient income to purchase (or land to grow) enough food or access nutritious food. This is an element of “food security”. The FAO defines four dimensions of food security, all of which must be fulfilled simultaneously, for food security to exist. The four dimensions are: 1) physical availability of food, 2) economic and physical access to food, 3) food utilization, and 4) the stability of those other dimensions over time.


https://www.worldhunger.org/world-hunge ... tatistics/
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby REAL Green » Wed 08 Jul 2020, 15:25:23

jawagord wrote:When it comes to crop reports there’s a whole cherry tree of good news to pick from, but doomers don’t want to see or admit the truth, which is crop yields continue to trend upwards because farmers are constantly improving crop yields by using better seed varieties, fertilizers, farming techniques, it’s called the green revolution and it continues.


Cherry tree of good news? LOL. Far from it. You are habituated to techno optimistic reports that market this feel good feeling. You just need to look around at the planet, web of life and people and see your thinking is very flawed. I am not saying we should leave your world I am saying we need to be honest about it. It is not that you are dishonest you just believe in something too much that is fundamentally wrong. Your agricultural "improving" is coming at a cost and clearly improvements are in diminishing returns of both affordability and the physics. I am engaged in permaculture rotational grazing and I did a 4 year stink with a 1000 acres corn and soy farm 20 years ago. I was under the delusional impression I could green up industrial farming and do an investment. How wrong I was. I'm still honest with the fact that the lives of billions depends on industrial farming and also with consumerism. My point is to be honest about this tap and find ways to reduce it not glorify it like you are doing.
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Re: The coming Civil War Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Thu 24 Sep 2020, 21:03:17

Remember when your mama told you that you can't run away from your problems?

She was wrong.... do you have the 21st century American civil war blues?

Want to bail?

Come on down!

https://www.sovereignman.com/internatio ... tch-28918/
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Re: The coming Civil War Pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 25 Sep 2020, 19:41:28

Ibon wrote:Come on down!


Global warming is such that if I move it's going to be towards the poles, not the equator.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: The coming Civil War Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 25 Sep 2020, 20:38:44

asg70 wrote:
Ibon wrote:Come on down!


Global warming is such that if I move it's going to be towards the poles, not the equator.


I considered Alaska but concluded somewhere in the mountain tropics like Columbia or Uganda or New Guinea would probably be a better choice as the paleo record shows all of them were abundant with life no matter if it was greenhouse conditions or major glaciation. Being in the mountains where the prevailing winds bring rain on a predictable schedule and with tropical sun at moderate to high altitude these places have always been abodes of life since green plants colonized the surface.
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Re: The coming Civil War Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 25 Sep 2020, 20:51:22

Tanada wrote:
asg70 wrote:
Ibon wrote:Come on down!


Global warming is such that if I move it's going to be towards the poles, not the equator.


I considered Alaska but concluded somewhere in the mountain tropics like Columbia or Uganda or New Guinea would probably be a better choice as the paleo record shows all of them were abundant with life no matter if it was greenhouse conditions or major glaciation. Being in the mountains where the prevailing winds bring rain on a predictable schedule and with tropical sun at moderate to high altitude these places have always been abodes of life since green plants colonized the surface.



Belize also fits that description. English speaking, low population compared to historic times, about 10% of the population is Amish/Mennonite.

Personally I made the effort to formalize my Canadian citizenship and we have reestablished family ties so that should the stuff happen we have a place to go where we are well known, not just dropping in From outer space looking for a handout. But I had a significant leg up in this endeavor many folks do not.
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Re: The coming Civil War Pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 25 Sep 2020, 21:00:11

Tanada wrote:
asg70 wrote:
Ibon wrote:Come on down!


Global warming is such that if I move it's going to be towards the poles, not the equator.


I considered Alaska but concluded somewhere in the mountain tropics like Columbia or Uganda or New Guinea would probably be a better choice as the paleo record shows all of them were abundant with life no matter if it was greenhouse conditions or major glaciation. Being in the mountains where the prevailing winds bring rain on a predictable schedule and with tropical sun at moderate to high altitude these places have always been abodes of life since green plants colonized the surface.
An interesting thought process you have there. At the height of the ice ages mega fauna grazed right up to the edge of the ice sheets in summer and one must assume that during the hottest and driest periods everything not a total desert supported all the species that our current specimens descended from. So where do you go in an uncertain future? At my age I can't see moving as I am in a moderate climate location and it would take a lot of change to make it uninhabitable within my expected lifetime.
For a younger man with family they might want to move to a location that has predictably sufficient rain fall and the ability to move from one elevation to another to fit the climate actually received without a major move. A hideaway high in the hills with some cropland down in the foothills and another piece down on the plains, all within fifty miles from near to far. I see some of the ultra rich are buying up large chunks of the West around the foot hills of the Rocky mountains. Perhaps they are on to something.
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Re: The coming Civil War Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 26 Sep 2020, 09:33:50

Tanada wrote:
asg70 wrote:
Ibon wrote:Come on down!


Global warming is such that if I move it's going to be towards the poles, not the equator.


I considered Alaska but concluded somewhere in the mountain tropics like Columbia or Uganda or New Guinea would probably be a better choice as the paleo record shows all of them were abundant with life no matter if it was greenhouse conditions or major glaciation. Being in the mountains where the prevailing winds bring rain on a predictable schedule and with tropical sun at moderate to high altitude these places have always been abodes of life since green plants colonized the surface.


This line of inquiry derails a bit the topic of this thread but if any of you are like me that might not be a bad idea.... but maybe these posts of more livable areas when climate change advances could be moved to an appropriate thread.

Tropical latitudes are very stable. One of the theories about why the biodiversity is so much greater in tropical latitudes is exactly because of how stable the climate remains through time as more northern latitudes pulse between ice sheets cleaning the slate and more warm periods. Fossil pollen in ancient lake beds of the Amazon basin indicate the main fluctuation is with rain fall, ice age periods correspond with more grass pollen, warmer periods with pollen from more broad leaf plants.

Highland areas of the tropics will of course go through changes. The geology of the Talamanca mountains where we are located shows evidence of glaciation during the last ice age in the highest regions in bordering Costa RIca.

Highland areas are like islands. the most extensive areas are in the Andes region of South America. From far western Venezuela through Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia down into Chile has extensive highland valleys. These are some of the most endangered habitats today because of how productive these regions are for agriculture and they have been largely exploited. When you go into a flower shop in North America more than likely the flowers you purchase were grown in Colombia above 2500m (8000+ feet)

The asset at our location at 6500 feet is that the Pacific ocean is only 40 miles away. This distance from the coast to the highest region can be considered local and the advantage is the diveristy of agriculture you can grow within the elevation gradient that is so close together. Rice, sugar cane, coconuts, cashews on the coast, slightly inland bananas, plantain and sweet, papayas, pineapples. Another 1000 feet up you get yucca, casava, cacao, mangoes, rambutans, mangosteens, guanabana, guavas, breadfruit, lowland avocados. Another 1000 feet you start being in the productive grasslands for dairy farms, growing yams, corn, kidney beans. And then you reach above 4000 feet and you get into the temperate vegetable zone of broccoli, onions, potatoes, cabbage, carrots, strawberries, raspberries, green beans, etc. This zone extends up to our location where you can grow coffee along with all these temperate vegetables and high elevation Hass type avocados. And above all of this is cloud forest up to 10,000 feet. Paramo grasslands are represented only on the highest ridge tops unlike the Andes which has extensive Paramo all the way up to snow line. Paramo is like tropical alpine habitat,

Whatever variation climate change delivers you got this close by elevation gradient to shift crops accordingly.

The rose family stone crop is the only tree food crop missing; peaches, apples, pears, plums, apricots, nectarines. THe lack of cold winter prevents these tree crops from thriving. You can grow a pear or apple tree as we have but you just get a few anemic fruit that are inferior quality.

Temperate range year round is constant at our location Low of 58-60, highs around 80. Perfect temperature. No insulation required for building and no energy needed to heat dwellings.

Our 8KW pelton wheel delivers all the energy we need even when we have 25 guests maxed out. We do use propane for cooking and a few of our hot water tanks are propane.

I would say the biggest risk of severe climate change is the migration of large populations from coastal areas invading the highlands. Think coastal Guayaquil Ecuador with 3 million inhabitants putting the highland areas under pressure with mass migration.

For those in the USA that do not feel adventurous to relocate in another country my number one recommendation? Duluth Minnesota.
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Re: The coming Civil War Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 26 Sep 2020, 13:37:23

OK, I will bite, why Deluth?
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Re: The coming Civil War Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 26 Sep 2020, 13:52:38

Newfie wrote:OK, I will bite, why Deluth?



Low population density urban area with all the urban amenities. unlike Seattle not over populated. No clusterfuck happening there. Affordable housing. Port city accessible with boat tranportation. Northern midwest, close to breadbasket of the lower midwest. Low crime rate, northern latitude, close to boreal forest and recreational outdoor activities.

The disadvantage is that climate change is not this slow gradual warming. There is tremendous energy added to the biosphere with the CO2 driven warming which causes weather to act in extremes in the more northern latitudes. Extreme rain, snow, cold and hot temperatures. Warm fronts one day 75 degrees, jet streams dip down the next day and it plunges to the teens......

These kind of warped weather extremes is why I would not choose northern latitudes. Tropical latitudes less likely to whip you around with these extreme weather gyrations.
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Re: The coming Civil War Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 26 Sep 2020, 18:23:03

Yup, why I like maritime climates. Moderation.
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sat 26 Sep 2020, 21:28:57

Personally I am biased to Toledo, possibly because I was born here. However it has a couple significant things going for it, like the Maumee River which is quite long and flows well year around even when there is a drought. It is also the westernmost Ohio port on Lake Erie which despite being the smallest of the Great Lakes by volume is a substantial body of water. Sure in the current climate the weather is cold in the winter and muggy in the summer but planning for the global warming future means we will still be wet and the warmth will be year around. The part of the midwest that turned to desert in the last warm spell is the part over by Nebraska and Montana. This part stayed lush green forest. Illinois and Iowa kind of switched from forest like they have today to more grassland, but even then plenty of water to support life.
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby REAL Green » Sun 27 Sep 2020, 05:51:13

Subjectivist wrote:but planning for the global warming future means we will still be wet and the warmth will be year around. The part of the midwest that turned to desert in the last warm spell is the part over by Nebraska and Montana. This part stayed lush green forest. Illinois and Iowa kind of switched from forest like they have today to more grassland, but even then plenty of water to support life.


I think it is too early to tell where climate change is going with long term regional climate. I see instability growing making things difficult all around all times of the year. All the extremes of climate being made more extreme. That is what I am seeing although this could be interspersed with long periods of stable nice weather depending on the time of the year. It is my opinion the status quo of industrial agriculture of the stable Holocene that allow humans to grow to occupy the planet will be gone in 20 years.

I have a polyculture of pasture in multi species rotational grazing system of cattle and goats. I believe goats will be increasingly important food source going forward as climate destabilizes. Having multi species allows a better grazing balance by utilizing a broad spectrum of forage. Having the multi species rotational system manages pasture better and uses less water. This is a future strategy that will have to be replicated in other AG regimes. High production industrial AG is going to come under increasing pressure because it requires stability. Here in the Ozarks big cattle operations go with grass monocultures with high stocking rates making them very susceptible to drought. A polyculture of pasture and multispecies is the best way to mitigate drought. With the increased heat there will surely be drought and heat stress in the summer even if the rest of the year is wetter.
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