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Sea Level Rise Pt. 3

Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 3

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 19 Jun 2020, 07:21:55

Good catch, Keith.

It highlights how many unknowns there are with sea level rise, and how fast some of the changes might happen. New research over the last ten years that I've seen on the issue all point the same direction as this piece--glacier collapse can happen at a stunningly rapid (non-glacial!) rate.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 3

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 19 Jun 2020, 15:16:28

The article in question points to the conditions of sediment and rock material at the base of particular glaciers. This impacts basal friction and there are many other factors that affect basal friction including the presence of melt, rock and ice asperities, elevation changes etc. When the forces of gravitational spreading (a consequence of increased snowfall and accumulation), coupled with basal melt exceed the coefficient of sliding friction at the glacier base it will surge. That surge is very short term and the system returns to its previous state relatively quickly, so quickly that researchers have been hard-pressed to document glacial surges in the field. This has absolutely zero to due with climate. Glaciers in Antarctica and everywhere else have always had periods of surge followed by periods of much slower flow. This has been documented in a number of papers regarding both the peninsula and West Antarctica. The measured rates of flow and resultant net mass balance of Antarctica have been documented in numerous papers over the past decade. Those rates are averages over the period of measurement so by default they take into account numerous surge events as well as periods where ice flow has slowed below average rate. There is nothing demonstrated in this paper that would suggest either more frequent surges or continuing surges.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 3

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 31 Aug 2020, 16:24:42

Ice sheet melt rates and the rate of global sea level rise are pretty much on trend with the "worst-case" scenario postulated by the UN International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

sea-level-ice-sheets-track-worst-case

I'm surprised its not even worse.

But glacier melt and sea level rise are both accelerating, so its still possible for sea level to shoot past the worst case scenario of the IPCC.

Thats my best guess as to what's going to happen in coming years.

I don't see anything that will slow down CO2 emissions that produce global warming and lead to glacier melt and concomitant sea level rise.

We certainly can't count on the UN Paris Accords to help at all---they are doing less then nothing to slow global CO2 emissions.

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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 3

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 10 Sep 2020, 01:54:45

Old, but maybe relevant here:

East Coast Faces Rising Seas From Slowing Gulf Stream

https://www.climatecentral.org/news/eas ... eam-15587/
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