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Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby Azothius » Thu 30 Jul 2020, 20:40:03

Yes, the SST Anomalies look pretty outrageous...



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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby evilgenius » Fri 31 Jul 2020, 06:12:22

Again, looking at the graph, the slope is practically going sideways. It's done that before, when I thought the trend was on for a record year.

The ice pack over the pole looks far more broken up than I've seen it before. The ice is still there, but it has visible cracks on EOSDIS images, and there is some more separation between pieces than I'm used to. I don't know if that means anything. It could simply all refreeze as is, and form the new beginning of some multi-year ice. It probably won't, but you can't assume even the worst when it appears things are headed that way. There are more choices than that available, and each one could be what happens. Nature doesn't answer the call of doom as readily as man does. When it does answer that call, though, I think we have learned that it can answer it in ways we didn't predict.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 31 Jul 2020, 10:07:09

Yes, the Arctic is full of surprises and fools even experts' predictions.

But it would have to get quite cold and cloudy very quickly and stay that way for a while for this not to be among the top melt seasons in area before freezing starts up again. It's already (probably) below all time lows in terms of total ice volume, but those are based on models that need to be confirmed and verified by various means before being taken without a grain of sea salt... :)
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Piomassive

Unread postby Whitefang » Sat 01 Aug 2020, 02:42:28

http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects ... e-anomaly/

June 2020 Monthly Update

Average Arctic sea ice volume in June 2020 was 16,600 km3. This value is 1200 km3 above the record minimum value of 15,400 km3 set in 2017, making it the sixth lowest on record. Monthly ice volume was 46% below the maximum in 1979 and 31% below the mean value for 1979-2019. May 2020 ice volume falls 0.3 standard deviations below the trend line. While the monthly average volume was only the 6th lowest on record, ice loss during June progressed much more rapidly bringing daily volume anomalies for June closer to record years of 2017 and 2019 for this month (Fig 4). Average ice thickness is in the middle of the pack for the more recent years (Fig 5). Ice thickness anomalies for June 2020 relative to 2011-2018 (Fig 6) continue the pattern that has emerged over the winter, spring and shows relatively thin ice along the Russian Coast and thicker than normal sea ice in the Barents sea. There are some fairly strong positive anomalies along North America and Greenland and extends further into the Barents sea. This thickness anomaly pattern is likely a combination of the recent warm temperatures along the Siberian Coast and the sea ice drift pattern that pushed sea ice away from the Siberian Coast and towards North American and Greenland Coast that has persistent since January (Fig 8.). The mean circulation pattern for the first half of 2020 shows a very small Beaufort Gyre and transpolar drift stream located closer to North America than normal. The drift anomaly shows a counter clock wise pattern compared to the normal counter clockwise pattern of sea ice drift.

Updates will be generated at approximately one-month intervals.


Just waiting for July to come crushing in :roll:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/ ... d-siberia/

Cold blob Southeast of Greenland in plain sight, since SST is the most important feedback proxy, a change on that scale has dire consequences. Right now a stuck giant low centering around iceland........

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 565,27.818
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 01 Aug 2020, 08:10:10

Wow, that looks like a conveyor belt for export out of the Fram!
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby dissident » Sat 01 Aug 2020, 12:05:34

What is missing is a presentation of data as to the activation of the circulation and mixing in the Arctic Ocean. This is part of the ice loss process that is not directly due to temperature. Before 1980 the coupling of the atmosphere and the ocean was constrained by a year-round sea ice "cap". This gave the Arctic Ocean stagnant and stratified characteristics. Tanada posted on this before several times. Now the surface eddy flux has increased the mixing into deeper waters (making surface waters more salty) and also activated currents which enhance the flushing of ice to lower latitudes.
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Volume by polarportal monitoring

Unread postby Whitefang » Mon 03 Aug 2020, 06:05:27

http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-ic ... nd-volume/

It looks like volume is about 5000 cubic km, and we have the whole month of august to go.
Only 2016 dipped below the 5000 mark in september.
According to the Danisch arctic inst.
We are set for new records.

No monthly update yet by piomas, they are late or I missed something... :roll:

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 152655.htm

A new study provides first direct evidence for Gulf Stream blender effect, identifying a new mechanism of mixing water across the swift-moving current. The results have important implications for weather, climate and fisheries because ocean mixing plays a critical role in these processes. The Gulf Stream is one of the largest drivers of climate and biological productivity from Florida to Newfoundland and along the western coast of Europe


https://www.arctictoday.com/the-arctic- ... udies-say/

A new Arctic Ocean is emerging with more algae blooms, bigger waves and more similarities to the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, according to a series of recently released studies.
Blame — or credit — should go at least in part to the loss of sea ice and in the seas peripheral to the Arctic Ocean and the increase in heat that those peripheral seas are sending north, the separate studies say.

“In many respects, the Arctic Ocean now looks like a new ocean,” Igor Polyakov, an oceanographer with the University of Alaska Fairbanks and a lead author of one of the studies, said in a statement released by the university.
Polyakov’s study, published in the journal Frontiers in Marine Science, analyzes 37 years of data that track the “borealization” of the Arctic Ocean. But borealization means different things on the European side than on the American-Asian said, said the study, a collaborative effort between scientists at UAF, the Finnish Meteorological Institute and other institutions from the United States, Canada, Norway, Sweden and Russia.

The study identified temperature, chemical and biological changes in the Arctic Ocean that are being driven by the connected subarctic waters.
On the European side of the Arctic, where warmer Atlantic waters are flowing in from the Barents and Kara seas, there is more mixing of saltwater with freshwater, the study found. The mixing is enhancing biological productivity. In contrast, the American-Asian side of the Arctic, which is influenced by the Bering and Chukchi seas, is getting more freshwater from ice melt and river outflow, the study found. That freshwater lies atop heavier saltwater, reducing the mixing and potentially reducing future productivity, the study said.

The Atlantification of the European Arctic and the Pacification of the American-Asian Arctic are expected to continue into the future, Polyakov said. “Within several decades we will see probably increasing regional contrasts in the Arctic, as the current climate models suggest,” said by email.


https://phys.org/news/2020-07-arctic-oc ... -seas.html

Since the first temperature and salinity measurements taken in the late 1800s, scientists have known that cold and relatively fresh water, which is lighter than salty water, floats at the surface of the Arctic Ocean. This fresh layer blocks the warmth of the deeper water from melting sea ice.

In the Eurasian Basin, that is changing. Abnormal influx of warm, salty Atlantic water destabilizes the water column, making it more susceptible to mixing. The cool, fresh protective upper ocean layer is weakening and the ice is becoming vulnerable to heat from deeper in the ocean. As mixing and sea ice decay continues, the process accelerates. The ocean becomes more biologically productive as deeper, nutrient-rich water reaches the surface.

By contrast, increased influx of warm, relatively fresh Pacific water and local processes like sea ice melt and accumulation of river water make the separation between the surface and deep layers more pronounced on the Amerasian side of the Arctic. As the pool of fresh water grows, it limits mixing and the movement of nutrients to the surface, potentially making the region less biologically productive.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 03 Aug 2020, 08:10:34

Sticking this here because I can’t recall the name of the correct thread.

Trump calling for new ice breakers. Loooong over due need. But the article goes further and has some interesting points.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump- ... ssia-china
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Linky drop

Unread postby Whitefang » Mon 03 Aug 2020, 08:20:46

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10 ... 00491/full

Linky to the actual report on:

An important yet still not well documented aspect of recent changes in the Arctic Ocean is associated with the advection of anomalous sub-Arctic Atlantic- and Pacific-origin waters and biota into the polar basins, a process which we refer to as borealization


Arctic politics, from Newfie link:

It's not just in numbers of ships that China is attempting to overtake the United States, with regard to the Arctic. China, in the model of its Belt and Road Initiative, is attempting to set up a "Polar Silk Road." With climate change making shipping lanes through the Arctic more plausible, China sees an opportunity to dominate what is likely to be a stepped-up level of Arctic commerce by establishing diplomatic and economic relationships with Arctic countries.

Solheim notes China's increased activity on the Arctic Council, an international organization of Arctic countries, which China is not technically a member of, and its efforts to court individual members of the council as well. China in the last decade, for example, signed a free trade agreement with Iceland. It's also tried to use its Confucious Institutes -- Chinese government-programs that exist in American universities as well -- to spread propaganda in Arctic countries.

China also tried to build airports in the Danish territory of Greenland before the U.S. put the brakes on that enterprise, and in May gained majority control of a Norwegian airline through several degrees of corporations owning other corporations.

Power and control, China is the NWO model....5G, trace and track everyone, kung flu symptons :)
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby dissident » Mon 03 Aug 2020, 11:13:05

Oh please. Stop the bitching and whining. It is clearly the US that is attempting to impose military control over the North East passage and all the inane NATO propaganda about Russia militarizing its own Arctic as if that is some sort of threat is part of this effort. The Americans are trying to act like the Arctic shipping authority. China does not need permission from the USA to transit through the North East passage. This passage is not hugging the US and Canadian coasts. It is overlapped by Russian territorial waters and EEZ.

There will be no policing by the USA of the North East passage. Russia is not going to capitulate to NATO blackmail.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 03 Aug 2020, 15:45:39

The unprecendented heat wave over northern Siberia caused massive early retreat of the sea ice along the NE passage, and the sea route is now open.

arctic-sea-ice-in-downward-spiral

The earliest ever freight ship left with an ice breaker on May 18 to transit the NE passage.

Now the record ice melt means no ice breaker is needed for the NE passage......the northern "Silk Road" is wide open for Chinese freighters to reach Europe.

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Arctic blog on the spot

Unread postby Whitefang » Fri 07 Aug 2020, 08:44:09

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/

Seawater will freeze and stay frozen at about −2 °C (28 °F). The sea surface of the Arctic Ocean contains less salt, so the sea ice will stay frozen longer, even as temperatures rise, but it will melt at 0°C (or 32°F).
As the images show, the blue area where sea surface temperatures are at or above 0°C (or 32°F), is encroaching upon the pale-blue area at the center of the Arctic Basin, and appears to reach the North Pole at August 9, 2020.


The navy.mil animation below was run on August 5, 2020, and shows sea ice thickness over 30 days (last 8 frames are forecasts for August 6 - August 13, 2020).

Forcating next week, the ice is getting thin.
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Re: Arctic blog on the spot

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 07 Aug 2020, 09:49:15

Whitefang wrote:https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/

Seawater will freeze and stay frozen at about −2 °C (28 °F). The sea surface of the Arctic Ocean contains less salt, so the sea ice will stay frozen longer, even as temperatures rise, but it will melt at 0°C (or 32°F).
As the images show, the blue area where sea surface temperatures are at or above 0°C (or 32°F), is encroaching upon the pale-blue area at the center of the Arctic Basin, and appears to reach the North Pole at August 9, 2020.


The navy.mil animation below was run on August 5, 2020, and shows sea ice thickness over 30 days (last 8 frames are forecasts for August 6 - August 13, 2020).

Forcating next week, the ice is getting thin.


While it is true that in the past Arctic Sea surface water was less salty than average this was in large part because wind and wave action was unable to mix water from a meter depth up into the surface water to equalize salinity. It was demonstrated all the way back in 2007 that areas with ice free conditions that lasted more than a week or two experienced enough wind and wave action to change this surface salinity dynamic. This ultimately makes surface freezing more difficult in long thawed areas of the Arctic Ocean.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby JuanP » Fri 07 Aug 2020, 12:00:37

Latest sea ice news and analysis monthly update from NSIDC.
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby dissident » Fri 07 Aug 2020, 12:50:15

JuanP wrote:Latest sea ice news and analysis monthly update from NSIDC.
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/


For some reason this site does not bother to present any sea ice volume analysis. Sea ice extent is meaningless without sea ice thickness.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby Azothius » Fri 07 Aug 2020, 15:32:29

Pace of reduction in Area has slowed a bit.
But Compaction % has decreased, as Dohboi noted the other day, and remains in a more dispersed state, which would allow for a steep increase in melt depending upon other conditions :
See graphs here: https://cryospherecomputing.tk/NRT2.html


Volume is very low, (though I have read critiques of this particular method of measuring volume)

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Great comparison post from Wipneus in the arctic sea ice forum:
Uni Hamburg AMSR2 2012 sea ice concentration is only available from first of August. Here is an animation of the first six days with 2020 and 2012 side by side.

click here to see the entire picture:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index. ... #msg279879

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