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Coronavirus Investing

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 17 Jul 2020, 14:52:10

That’s a far more robust and rational platform than I’ve heard from either party.

IBON 2020 :-D
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 17 Jul 2020, 20:41:19

Newfie wrote:That’s a far more robust and rational platform than I’ve heard from either party.

IBON 2020 :-D


The two parties just orbit around each other like spent binary super novas about ready to be sucked out of existence in a big black hole of incompetency.

Voters could make them redundant.
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 18 Jul 2020, 09:11:21

Yesterday, I went to Walmart. I live in a rural area. Walmart is 15 miles away. The same highway runs through my town as goes by that Walmart. There aren't a lot of other directions to go because this area is mountainous. There are some. I could have gone thirty miles the other way.

I needed a new pair of shoes and pants. I went to look at the pants first. There is only one style of pant that fits me very well they sell, so I went straight to that rack. They had only one pair in my size. In the past, the rack has always been well stocked. These are Walmart's own brand jeans, or the equivalent. I looked at the other racks. Some of the name brand jeans were still well stocked. All of the own brand stuff was under stocked. It wasn't just that all of the racks were in a huge tussle. Often they are. The people who work there might not always stay on top of keeping them in order. But the holes in the stock were something I haven't seen there before.

Walmart did seem to have a lot of things like big screen TV's. There was no lack of flash in the store. There were what had to be back to school bins of office and school supplies out as well. They didn't say "Back to School," but they looked like the displays I've seen in the past that did. They served more as flash than something to actually consider. Nobody is sure if the kids won't go virtual this next year. Those bins looked hardly disturbed. When I looked upon what they contained, it made me think of what I used to do for a living. When I drove I was always looking for pens. Walmart's back to school sales are often the best time to stock up on pens.

The shoe department was in order. There were shortages in certain shoe sizes. Walmart sells many shoes off of a wall rack. Those shoes are classified by what type they are. They range from non-slip working shoes, which I bought, to simple trainers, which I was replacing. They only had shoes that fit big feet. All of the sizes below 10 in most styles were empty.

Going into the store they blocked off one side's entrance and exit. As it so happened, it was the one closest to where I could find a place to park. I thought I was getting lucky to find a spot so close. Ha. I had to walk all the way down to the other end to get in. On the way, I tried to tell the people headed toward the entrance I knew to be closed what was up, but they didn't pay any attention to me. They kept going. It's harder to communicate with a mask on.
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 18 Jul 2020, 10:00:35

evilgenius wrote: On the way, I tried to tell the people headed toward the entrance I knew to be closed what was up, but they didn't pay any attention to me. They kept going. It's harder to communicate with a mask on.


I enjoyed your post. You transported me to the parking lot, to the store, to the anonymity of being a Walmart shopper. It seems so foreign and far away from where I am in the cloud forest at the moment. It's weird, I am in a place for more isolated and absent of people but I don't feel lonely.

The emotion that I felt most strong reading your post in the Walmart store is loneliness. Not that you personally felt lonely but that the whole scene itself conjured up for me this sense of loneliness.

Thanks for the post.
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby careinke » Sat 18 Jul 2020, 13:37:00

Ibon wrote:
Newfie wrote:That’s a far more robust and rational platform than I’ve heard from either party.

IBON 2020 :-D


The two parties just orbit around each other like spent binary super novas about ready to be sucked out of existence in a big black hole of incompetency.

Voters could make them redundant.


I would modify your crime platform to eliminate all crimes that do not have a victim. Without a victim, there should be no crime.

Even without the mod, I would still vote IBON 2020!
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 18 Jul 2020, 17:13:03

evilgenius wrote: I went to look at the pants first. There is only one style of pant that fits me very well they sell, so I went straight to that rack. They had only one pair in my size. In the past, the rack has always been well stocked. These are Walmart's own brand jeans, or the equivalent. I looked at the other racks. Some of the name brand jeans were still well stocked. All of the own brand stuff was under stocked. It wasn't just that all of the racks were in a huge tussle. Often they are. The people who work there might not always stay on top of keeping them in order. But the holes in the stock were something I haven't seen there before.

If you know your pants size, why not just shop online? I just checked, and they seem to have LOTS of inventory in various colors and sizes online. No COVID-19 exposure. No waiting in line. No drive time and burning gasoline and mileage on your vehicle. Plenty of cheap Rustler and George (Walmart brand) jeans for both big and tall and regular sizes in various colors available in LOTS of sizes. I've bought lots of those brands for decades and haven't noticed a meaningful difference in durability for them and more expensive name brands.

My local Kroger's I use now has MASSIVE quantities of things like canned veggies that they used to seem in short supply of, not to mention more cleaning supplies, etc. than I've seen since the pandemic became a real thing in March.

So if you're implying that we're about to run into shortages, generally, I'm not buying it until I see widespread news about it. Google searching "consumer goods shortages in US", I'm not seeing anything recent.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby REAL Green » Sun 19 Jul 2020, 06:53:19

Inflation: This Time Is Different
https://mises.org/wire/inflation-time-different

“businesses are in arrears as never before, with many shopping malls, office blocks, and factories unused and rents unpaid. It is this problem, shared by banks around the world, which due to the severity of current business conditions is likely to tip the banking system over the edge and into an immediate crisis. The extent of the problem is likely to be revealed any time in this month of July…Unemployment of previously productive labor is already rising dramatically, and as bankruptcies increase, the rise in the unemployment numbers will continue. Let us therefore assume that compared with last year the production of goods and services and consumer demand for them will decline by at least 25 percent. Note that we avoid using money totals, since they are meaningless; it is the exchange of labor being converted into physical products and services that matters…Into this situation are injected enormous quantities of money, none of which defeats the constraints on true supply of goods, nor on overall demand in a high-unemployment economy. Put in a more familiar way, we will have too much money chasing not enough goods. There is only one outcome, other things being equal; the purchasing power of the dollar in terms of consumer goods will be driven significantly lower…This explains stagflation, the situation where an economy stagnating in overall demand is accompanied by rising prices. Nor are other things ever equal, the condition for the paragraph above. The early receivers of inflated money will spend it, driving up the prices of the goods and services they acquire before the prices of other goods and services are affected”
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby REAL Green » Fri 31 Jul 2020, 06:03:15

There is so much covid noise sometimes I don't know what to believe. Keep in mind the Moon of Alabama was initially a Covid "Hoax" source and now is more sober. If you look at some of this with science then below has some interesting point. The disease is more than a respiratory disease it is also neurological and cardiac related. The more time you wait to get infected the more that is learned so prevention strategies are probably wise. Some people seem to be long haulers with chronic symptoms. Filtered air is significant vector especially conditioned air. Masks do matter especially indoors with unfiltered air. This article downplays physical contact as an issue on surfaces. I am not an expert on this information but there is some common sense to evaluating this information. Filtering particles does matter for more reasons than covid. Health issues are many and varied with new diseases. Age impact has been noted but the fact much is still unknown means being young and cavalier about infection may be unwise. I think hand washing strategies are important and for more reasons than covid:

“Covid-19 Update - Heart Damage And Aerosols”
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/07/c ... osols.html

“The number of new cases in U.S. have somewhat peaked for now as the sunbelt states have taken some measures to decrease new infections. But I am afraid that the trend down will (again) be very slow and that we will see another rise as some other states - Ohio, Tennessee, Indiana and Kentucky - show upticks in new infections. They may be the next ones who will get into trouble. The curve of new deaths from Covid-19 follows the new cases curve by three to four weeks. Deaths will probably peak at the end of August. The economic damage the pandemic has caused in the U.S. is extreme: The U.S. economy shrank at an annualized 32.9% rate in the second quarter — the worst-ever contraction on records that date back to 1947, the government said on Thursday. The staggering contraction beats the last record set in 1958, when GDP shrank at an annualized 10% rate. Interestingly the contraction in 1958 was a direct result of the 1957/58 H2N2 influenza pandemic. Globally the situations is mixed. South-east Asia seems to have the problem under control. India is a mess. South America has huge problems. Western European countries seem mostly okay for now but I expect another big rise there as people are beginning to lose discipline. East Europe looks bleak. There is little reliable dataavailable for the Middle East and Africa…We Thought It Was Just a Respiratory Virus - We were wrong…In some patients with COVID-19, the stress from the infection and inflammation causes small heart attacks that can be identified through blood tests. In other patients and for reasons that we don’t understand yet, COVID-19 causes clotting within the blood vessels that can result in heart attacks and strokes. In addition, the virus can directly attack the heart muscle itself and cause a disease called viral myocarditis. Myocarditis can happen to anyone of any age and it is unpredictable who will become severely ill. Sometimes, the virus causes so much damage to the heart muscle that patients die from rhythm abnormalities or shock. Two third of those people had not even been hospitalized. They were 'mild' cases. The heart damage in the 60% of the people who have had Covid-19 may be permanent. Even otherwise healthy people can have this outcome. Red Sox pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez is one of those casualties. Moreover the CDC has now acknowledged that some 35% of those who had a symptomatic Covid-19 cases have not fully recovered even after 2-3 week. This includes the 'long haulers'…No one knows when #longcovid patients aren't contagious; many are alone for months. Long term effects of Covid-19 are not rare. In Spain over half of coronovirus patients have developed neurological problems…“The longer you wait to be infected, the less chance you have of being part of an experiment, and the better chance you have to be receiving the outcome of a well-done experiment,” he said.In conclusion, this study indicates that transmission of SARS-CoV-2 can occur over distances of at least 8 [meter] in confined spaces under conditions of relatively low air exchange rates and high rates of recirculated unfiltered air. People infected with SARS-CoV-2 spread droplets and aerosols when they speak, sneeze or cough. Air conditioning systems also dry the air while cooling it. In dry air droplets from an infected person lose their water content very fast and turn into virus carrying aerosols. Aerosols do not sink to the ground. Air conditioning systems can spread them very effectively. Effectiveness of surgical masks against influenza bioaerosols…Masks Do More than Protect Others during COVID-19: Reducing the Inoculum of SARS-CoV-2. In contrast to the neglected importance of aerosols fomites have received way too much attention. Their risk was exaggerated. The chance that some virus in a droplet on some surface makes it into ones nose is very small. That is why I have not wiped one surface for fear of Covid-19 and have never changed my hand hygiene. The deep cleaning is nonsense. Such Hygiene Theater Is a Huge Waste of Time. For air conditioned public rooms and offices upgrading to HEPA-filters in air conditioners should have the highest priority. Unless that has happened masks should be made mandatory in such places.”
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby evilgenius » Fri 31 Jul 2020, 06:22:35

UPS has been up lately. I currently work at UPS. The volume coming through has been huge since reopening in my state. I am in a resort area. Many people have second homes in the area. Lots of those people are here for this. They might normally be at their regular homes. The point is, they aren't shopping at brick and mortar stores while they are here. Those businesses are also doing some volume. We also deliver to them. But business volume doesn't describe everything. Looking at the volume we have had, I assumed the trend was confined to this resort area. It could be that the trend is related to an acceleration of the general trend that is already taking place concerning e commerce vs brick and mortar. Tech has been running up. Maybe it hasn't even begun to run up as much as it eventually will?
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby REAL Green » Fri 31 Jul 2020, 06:47:13

evilgenius wrote:It could be that the trend is related to an acceleration of the general trend that is already taking place concerning e commerce vs brick and mortar. Tech has been running up. Maybe it hasn't even begun to run up as much as it eventually will?


I am finding some brick and motor is easily replaced by e-commerce. I an finding other purchasing options harder to replace like Big box stores Lowes, Walmart (outside car delivery groceries) Costco for bulk items, and specialty stores. My farm living means embracing e-commerce made lots of sense before but now also with virus avoidance. In addition supply runs are expensive in fuel, car wear and tear, and time lost I could be working. This makes supply run strategies important. If I go to town I do multiple tasks and I avoid going to town if possible with e-commerce. I rarely eat out although recently have slowly returned a few times to restaurants many because of wife and family. Infection rates are very low here in Mo Ozarks. In fact many counties currently have zero infections. I wear a N95 mask often. Many around here don't especially outdoors and in small towns. Much more mask usage in bigger towns. Big box stores are requiring it. All medical require masks and screening here which I assume is pretty much global.
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby REAL Green » Tue 04 Aug 2020, 06:46:26

“COVID-19 on brink of ending 6 decades of driving growth in U.S.”
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2020/08 ... 596045515/

“At risk is a 60-year streak of uninterrupted growth in "vehicle miles traveled," or VMT, among Americans, according to report last month by industry analysts with the KPMG consulting firm. In a 19-page report titled, "Automotive's New Reality: Fewer Trips, Fewer Miles, Fewer Cars," analysts concluded the pandemic has greatly accelerated two formerly low-key economic forces that already were driving down driving -- working from home and online shopping…KPMG analysts predicted, in fact, that high levels of telecommuting and shopping online post-COVID-19 will cut driving in the United States by as many as 270 billion miles every year -- 10% fewer than the nearly 3 trillion miles that were driven each year before the pandemic…If realized, the decline would translate into 14 million fewer cars on the roads. Also, new car and truck sales would fall by about 1 million vehicles per year with average ownership under two cars per household.”
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 04 Aug 2020, 07:45:24

Silver lining?
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby REAL Green » Tue 04 Aug 2020, 08:02:28

Newfie wrote:Silver lining?


For people like you and I but people depending on VMT for a living this has to be a scary prospect. I personally think it is the future so those who are smart enough to see the writing on the wall will adapt. Some do not have alternatives so this likely means embracing a personal collapse. Of course the climate benefits are there. I started going local several years ago so my VMT were already lower. I combine trips to increase the effectiveness of travel. The sad part of my effort at green prepping is I can't live like I do without VMT. My local is dominated by it. All I can do is reduce my needs both discretionary and required. Discretionary is easier but by no means simple. I have family who have not bought into my way of life in regards to drastic conservation and localism. They are delocalized and energy intensive. They do respect what I do but have little interest in what I do. It is not a comfortable way of life, it is not glamourous, and it is not profitable. It offers spiritual meaning but it takes real understanding to find this meaning. Many don't have the education for it nor the time to get educated. So lower VMT is important to my way of life but it is going to slowly kill others. Life is one big trade-off.
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 04 Aug 2020, 11:59:10

While VMT is the traditional measure and useful when all cars and trucks had ice engines and consumed fuel pretty much on a weight per mile basis things are changing. Today I think we need to look at Vehicle pollution emitted. VPE which effects climate and vehicle ton miles VTM which determines how fast roads wear out. The usual figure is a fully loaded truck inflicts some forty times the wear on a road or bridge then a light passenger car.
So if we all switch to full EVs weighing less then two tons the VPE would be much lower depending on the recharge electric source but you are still going to have to collect enough taxes to get the snow plowed and keep up with the truck wear and tear perhaps by taxing electric trucks by the tonXmile.
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby The_Toecutter » Tue 04 Aug 2020, 13:51:13

When it comes to vehicle efficiency and embodied energy during production, there is a LOT of fat to be cut.

There's been a boom in electric bicycles as a result of the COVID shutdown, among other factors.

I've personally built something efficient enough to reach nearly 40 mph on flat ground, just being pedaled, no motor. I haven't been able to get some of the parts to finish my prototype as a result of the complications relating to COVID19, even though I ordered them months ago. A lot of people are realizing they can no longer afford their cars with mass evictions looming and mass unemployment now a long-term feature of the economy.

I see potential for a boom in microvehicles in the near future, whether it is velomobiles, microcars, or something in-between. With 3D printing technology advancing, there is the possibility that in the near future, economy of scale will not be as much of a determinant on the per-unit cost of a vehicle as it has historically been, which would allow such vehicles to then be produced for greatly less cost than the typical automobile, even in low volume, which would then provide an affordable alternative.

There is no reason a single-person enclosed motorcycle couldn't do the same things most people currently use cars for, but at less than 1/20th the environmental or ecological impact. Mainly, a single occupant using the vehicle for A to B transportation, pickup up groceries, and doing so in a manner that isolates the user from the elements. With the right design, one could safely operate at highway speeds on only one horsepower, and get the energy efficiency equivalent of thousands of miles per gallon on electricity doing so.

A single-person electric car that needs one horsepower to do 60 mph would only need about 13 Wh/mile from the battery, or close to 2,500 MPGe. Or if one uses an ethanol fueled engine or a diesel engine instead of electricity, literally getting 1,000+ MPG is possible. Such a vehicle, unladen, would weigh under 200 lbs, and have a CdA of under 0.05 m^2. With regulations on low-volume vehicles and motorcycles being so lax in the U.S., it is feasible that a small startup could produce something like this and avoid liabilities stemming from safety. Hand-built, it won't be cheap, but with access to the right tools(3D printer for the body, automated tubing bender for the chassis, ect), potential for a cost comparable to that of a scooter or a mid-range ebike is there. With careful selection of components, such a vehicle could also reliably perform like a car, or even faster...

There exist vehicles barely similar to what I describe, like the Twike. In low volume with lots of high-cost hand labor and low-volume custom components involved, they are also expensive. The Twike is also meant to seat 2, side by side, which compromises efficiency greatly. But the potential to improve the designs and to cut the cost is certainly there.
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Last desperate attempt to regain control....

Unread postby Whitefang » Thu 06 Aug 2020, 05:57:33

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LvX818MI3NY

David, catch22 report on happenings.

The [DS]/MSM are falling right into the trap the patriots have set. ST testified today about the spying and she is now pointing the finger. Flynn's case is now on deck, Sullivan might have to recuse himself. The [DS] is now pushing everything they have to create the idea that we need mail in voting. The plan is to cause chaos so someone of their choosing can take over as President. This plan has already failed before it was started, remember the Trump card, it's coming.


At around 22 minutes, cabal games and strategy.
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