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"Fast Crash" vs. "Slow Crash"?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: "Fast Crash" vs. "Slow Crash"?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 25 Jul 2020, 22:18:27

AdamB wrote:
shortonoil wrote:You continue to pursue trivia because you have nothing real worth contributing. You are a 100% loser.


I've never had a single science journal article rejected in 20 years. Not one. What might your batting average be?

Based on shorty's record here and his ETP nonsense "paper", he's never said a single intelligent thing, so there's that.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: "Fast Crash" vs. "Slow Crash"?

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 25 Jul 2020, 23:47:01

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Based on shorty's record here and his ETP nonsense "paper", he's never said a single intelligent thing, so there's that.


Here is an absolute HYSTERICAL Shorty quote, considering what he then went out and did.

ShortOnOil on 10th July 2005 wrote:If you are going to ignore the laws of physics to maintain a preconceived notion, there is very little any of us can do to relieve you of your delusions.


This guy accuses someone else of doing EXACTLY what he did, years before he did it himself in a grand way! Welshed on the bet based on his "physics" to boot!!

<sigh>

Once someone goes faith based, they just don't ever come back.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: "Fast Crash" vs. "Slow Crash"?

Unread postby REAL Green » Mon 27 Jul 2020, 06:34:55

“World Trade Continues To Slide As Recovery Sputters”
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/world ... y-sputters

“New data published by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis on Friday reveals world trade fell 1.1% in May after a 12.2% plunge in April. Highlights from the CPB report indicate world trade continues to decelerate: World trade volume decreased 1.1% month-on-month (growth was -12.2% in April, initial estimate - 12.1%). World trade momentum was -11.6% (non-annualised; -6.9% in April, initial estimate -7.2%). World industrial production increased by 0.8% month-on-month (having decreased 8.5% in April, initial estimate -8.1%). World industrial production momentum was -7.1% (non-annualised; -5.8% in April, initial estimate - 5.6%). To visualize the collapse in world trade, CPB published several charts showing world merchandise trade volume to industrial production volume, all suggesting the global recovery is far from a "V."… "Although the full impact of the pandemic is not yet reflected fully in trade statistics, it is expected to be very substantial", said WTO director-general Roberto Azevedo, who presented the trade report to its 164 member states on Friday. WTO said last month that 2Q20 world trade YoY could plunge upwards of 18%. Along with slumping world trade, we noted earlier this week (July 21) that the global recovery is running on fumes.”
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Re: "Fast Crash" vs. "Slow Crash"?

Unread postby REAL Green » Thu 30 Jul 2020, 05:03:56

I doubt populations can rise to 9.7BIL mainly based upon constraints on food and water. Affordable energy which is not the same as a cheap price will be an issue. The decline of globalism’s growth rate will put a check on greater affluence. Climate change is doing its disruptions. The warming of the Arctic points to an abrupt shift. Many other issues are out there pointing to the neighborhood of peak population. These articles always project growth leading to sustainable development. They expect Technology to continue to limit problems. They assume food productivity will grow. This worked in the past but the “trend is your friend, until it ends”.

In my mind there are too many weak links and affects from the law of the minimum. The world will continue to attempt more complicated systems and technology in a natural process of progress but this self-organizing force can end. Diminishing returns is nonlinear. Social, political, and economic factors point to decline. I feel population already overshot its stasis and shortly there will be localized issues that could spread regionally then globally.

“New Study Predicts Global Population As Low As 6.29 Billion By 2100, Shattering Most Climate-Alarmist Models”
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... st-climate

“The new study suggests that the global population will peak at 9.7 billion in 2064 and will then fall to as low as 6.29 billion, if the U.N.’s Sustainable Development Goals for education and contraceptive are met in full. If those goals are not met, the study suggests the population could still drop to 8.8 billion by 2100. Even under the 8.8 billion population scenario, the difference is profound. China would fall to third in world population rankings behind India and Nigeria. Places like Japan, South Korea, Italy, Portugal and Spain could all see their populations decline 50% from their highs. America would be estimated to have a population of 336 million, only slightly more than today. The economic growth that is expected to take place globally would be a positive in keeping the population under control, the report says, as it would drive future improvements in health care and education for women around the world - including information about contraception and urbanization - and would result in declining fertility rates… He concludes: "If economic development spreads the blessings of greater freedom and greater education to more of the world, popular demands for cleaner air, cleaner water and the protection of nature will only grow."
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Re: "Fast Crash" vs. "Slow Crash"?

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 30 Jul 2020, 07:28:58

Yeah, we may be at the LTG inflection point. Hard to tell for sure, 5-10 years perspective will make the issue clearer.
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Re: "Fast Crash" vs. "Slow Crash"?

Unread postby REAL Green » Mon 03 Aug 2020, 06:30:46

“Deforestation and world population sustainability: a quantitative analysis”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598- ... 37c63d6b1d

“Conclusions

In conclusion our model shows that a catastrophic collapse in human population, due to resource consumption, is the most likely scenario of the dynamical evolution based on current parameters. Adopting a combined deterministic and stochastic model we conclude from a statistical point of view that the probability that our civilisation survives itself is less than 10% in the most optimistic scenario. Calculations show that, maintaining the actual rate of population growth and resource consumption, in particular forest consumption, we have a few decades left before an irreversible collapse of our civilisation (see Fig. 5). Making the situation even worse, we stress once again that it is unrealistic to think that the decline of the population in a situation of strong environmental degradation would be a non-chaotic and well-ordered decline. This consideration leads to an even shorter remaining time. Admittedly, in our analysis, we assume parameters such as population growth and deforestation rate in our model as constant. This is a rough approximation which allows us to predict future scenarios based on current conditions. Nonetheless the resulting mean-times for a catastrophic outcome to occur, which are of the order of 2–4 decades (see Fig. 5), make this approximation acceptable, as it is hard to imagine, in absence of very strong collective efforts, big changes of these parameters to occur in such time scale. This interval of time seems to be out of our reach and incompatible with the actual rate of the resource consumption on Earth, although some fluctuations around this trend are possible35 not only due to unforeseen effects of climate change but also to desirable human-driven reforestation. This scenario offers as well a plausible additional explanation to the fact that no signals from other civilisations are detected. In fact according to Eq. (16) the mean time to reach Dyson sphere depends on the ratio of the technological level T and therefore, assuming energy consumption (which scales with the size of the planet) as a proxy for T, such ratio is approximately independent of the size of the planet. Based on this observation and on the mediocrity principle, one could extend the results shown in this paper, and conclude that a generic civilisation has approximatively two centuries starting from its fully developed industrial age to reach the capability to spread through its own solar system. In fact, giving a very broad meaning to the concept of cultural civilisation as a civilisation not strongly ruled by economy, we suggest that only civilisations capable of a switch from an economical society to a sort of “cultural” society in a timely manner, may survive.”
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Re: "Fast Crash" vs. "Slow Crash"?

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 04 Aug 2020, 08:53:36

http://finalwakeupcall.info/en/2020/07/ ... ic-crisis/

Make no mistake, this COVID-operation has been carefully planned
NWO
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Re: "Fast Crash" vs. "Slow Crash"?

Unread postby REAL Green » Wed 05 Aug 2020, 08:21:21

Hezbollah false flag? Channel Israeli hatred for a wider war:

"Lebanon's Year From Hell" - Death Toll Tops 100, Over 4,000 Injured After Beirut Explosion”
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... 00-injured

“If this really was an attack, the Lebanese are going to want revenge, because a substantial portion of their capital city has been absolutely decimated. And needless to say, there are already voices all over the Middle East that are eagerly pointing a finger of blame at Israel and are calling for war. But unlike the “mystery explosions” that have been happening in Iran, the evidence does not indicate that Israel had anything to do with this great tragedy. Unfortunately, a lot of people out there are going to jump to their own conclusions, and many of those that hate Israel will use this as another justification to call for armed conflict. Over the past couple of years, there have been so many moments when it seemed like a major war could break out at any time in the Middle East. And here in 2020, tensions are running higher than ever. The IDF has been regularly hitting Iranian and Hezbollah targets all over the region, and we just witnessed a harrowing confrontation on the Syrian border. It appears that it is just a matter of time before a huge war erupts in the Middle East, and it certainly isn’t going to take much to trigger one. So could this explosion push the region over the edge? Let us hope not, but without a doubt this blast is not going to help matters. The devastation that we just witnessed has caused great pain and anger in Lebanon, and terror groups such as Hezbollah will inevitably try to channel all of that pain and anger in a way that furthers their ultimate goals.”
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Re: "Fast Crash" vs. "Slow Crash"?

Unread postby REAL Green » Thu 06 Aug 2020, 07:08:59

Beirut’s port explosion is a significant happening regardless of foul play or not. The port supplies 80% of Lebanon’s needs. This will dramatically impact Hezbollah as well as the Lebanese nation. Lebanon was already in a spiral down over currency crisis then Covid. Now we will see the affects of vital supplies being limited by this accident. This is a small enough country to be assisted so its failure will likely be absorbed into the wider economic output of the region without a domino effect.

The key question I would pose would be was a fire started to appear accidental but instead was a plan to devastate vital Hezbollah supply infrastructure? The dangerous impounded cargo might have been found out and a plan hatched to cause destruction making it appear as an accident. Foul play or not this is going to dramatically affect Hezbollah’s ability to supply its people who are the strength of its resistance to Israel. I don’t know if military hardware for Hezbollah came through this port but it is clear vital consumables and infrastructure supplies did.

“Beirut Blast Wrap-up”
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/08/b ... ap-up.html

“In 2013 Lebanese authorities arrested a ship (pdf) that had been abandoned by its owner: On 23/9/2013, m/v Rhosus, flying the Moldovian flag, sailed from Batumi Port, Georgia heading to Biera in Mozambique carrying 2,750 tons of Ammonium Nitrate in bulk…"Nitroprill HD" is a knock-off product of the trademarked Nitropril, a premium grade porous prilled ammonium nitrate manufactured and sold by the Orica Mining Services in Australia. It is used as a commercial explosive in mining and quarrying… Lebanon's LBCI-TV reported on August 5 that, according to preliminary information, the fire that set off the explosion was started accidentally by welders who were closing off a gap that allowed unauthorized entry into the warehouse. LBCI said sparks from a welder's torch are thought to have ignited fireworks stored in a warehouse, which in turn detonated the nearby cargo of ammonium nitrate that had been unloaded from the MV Rhosus years earlier… the initial fire caused by welding. It burns a while and then sets off fireworks in a first explosion. This takes the roof off the warehouse. A few minutes later the fireworks cause the huge explosion of the ammonium nitrate.”
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Re: "Fast Crash" vs. "Slow Crash"?

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 06 Aug 2020, 08:22:06

onlooker wrote:http://finalwakeupcall.info/en/2020/07/15/artificial-economic-crisis/

Make no mistake, this COVID-operation has been carefully planned
NWO



Spot on
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Re: "Fast Crash" vs. "Slow Crash"?

Unread postby suxs » Thu 06 Aug 2020, 09:09:26

Real Green-

Contrary to the image of Hezbollah you and zerohedge wish to portray, the fact of the matter is the last time Israel mixed it up with Hezbollah in 2006, between 1/3 and 1/2 of the "invincible" Merkava tanks Israel sent into Southern Lebanon were ambushed and destroyed- not damaged but obliterated. Additionally, Hezbollah launched an Iranian land to sea missile against an Israeli naval vessel that resulted in damn near sinking the ship. In terms of IDF casualties, 121 soldiers were killed in the failed invasion as well as 44 Israeli citizens due to retaliatory rocket attacks.
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Re: "Fast Crash" vs. "Slow Crash"?

Unread postby REAL Green » Thu 06 Aug 2020, 10:44:32

suxs wrote:Contrary to the image of Hezbollah you and zerohedge wish to portray


Wow, talk about a bad attitude and somebody who needs to look in the mirror for issues of anger and resentment. I am on neither side of the issue but we see you have your agenda. My comment is in regards to decline and geopolitical realities of which a wider ME war could be catastrophic. In regards to Lebanon I have very good friends there. I have not seen them in years but I have fond memories of when they visited.

You really need to take a chill pill and take off the blinders. Read the comment again and get back to me on how poorly you look. The comment was not from Zero Hedge so maybe wipe your dirty glasses. It came from Moon of Alabama via Rice Farmer.

You show you have limited understanding of tactical military issues likewise. 2006 was 14 years ago. The whole region has been transformed. Don't you think the Israelis learned a thing or two?
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Re: "Fast Crash" vs. "Slow Crash"?

Unread postby REAL Green » Tue 11 Aug 2020, 07:02:54

“How Everything Can Collapse: Excerpt”
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020 ... e-excerpt/

“The birth of ‘collapsology’ Despite the high quality of some of the philosophical reflec­tions on this topic, the debate on collapse (or ‘the end of a world’) fails because of the absence of factual arguments. It is stuck in imaginary or philosophical speculation without any real factual grounding. The books dealing with collapse are usually too specialized, restricted by their point of view or discipline (archaeology, economics, ecology, etc.), while more systematic discussions are full of gaps…Not only do we lack any real inventory – or better, any systematic analysis – of the planet’s economic and biophysi­cal situation, but above all we lack an overview of what a collapse might look like, how it might be triggered and what it would imply in psychological, sociological and political terms for the present generations. We lack any real applied, transdisciplinary science of collapse…Immersing ourselves in the word ‘collapse’, understanding its subtleties and nuances, distinguishing between fact and fantasy – these are some of the objectives of collapsology. We need to take this notion apart and conjugate it in dif­ferent tenses to give it texture, detail, and nuance: we need, in short, to make of it a living and fully operational concept…Moreover, the world is not uniform. The question of ‘North-South relations’ needs to be considered in a new light…It’s a book that attempts lucidly to set out the facts, to ask relevant ques­tions, and to assemble a toolbox which will make it possible to grasp the subject other than through Hollywood disas­ter movies, the Mayan calendar or ‘techno-bliss’. We are not just presenting a ‘top ten’ of the century’s bad news stories, we are mainly proposing a theoretical framework for hearing about, understanding and welcoming all the small-scale initiatives that are already facing up to the ‘post-carbon’ world, initiatives that are emerging at break­neck speed.”

REAL Green has been the result of my evolution of collpase studies since 1999 with my early experience with Y2K. That turned out to be a hoax but it inspired me to systematic dangers. I already had been exposed to peak oil and climate change in college in 85. I have since evolved over 20 years with actual life style of a person managing a collpase process. This is both for myself and those who come after me. I am constructing a monestary to offer my experiences and things I have gathered. I no longer am looking for the event. I am concerned with the process. I no longer look to the top to deal with the process. I am pointing to the individual in his local of people and place to adapt and mitigate what is coming.

I am talking about a hybrid arrangement of using growth to degrowth. This hybridization also involves leveraging the old ways that are robust with modern best practices and things. I am talking about triage to embrace priorities because this is about increasing poverty and poverty means sacrifice. This sacrifice is both physical and mental. Most of all I am talking about acceptance. This behavioral mindset allows one to live a status quo life as they find meaning in decoupling from the status quo. This decoupling is relative to ones unique local of people and place.

All humans are trapped in planetary succession and the human Anthropocene carbon trap plus the human narrative that is path dependent. While I believe much can be done by humans concerning the dangers ahead it is my point of view we are fated to decline and possibly collapse because of planetary succession combine with path dependencies that got humans to where they are at. Most of all, the planet dictates this because it is clearly in succession. Human civilization is suffering decline because of a clear scientific picture of overshoot of both population and consumption. Humans are at thresholds of diminishing returns. The effects of diminishing returns are non-linear at a point and the result is a cascade of thresholds being breached. It is the converging of destructive planetary change and the declining human ecosystem that marks an inflection point. The scale of time and location is a key variable to embrace for the individual. Humans are mortal and place is a real spot on a vast map. If one embraces this process with a time and a place scale then real meaning can be found.

Books like “How Everything Can Collapse” are very useful for a person embracing decline. This way of life also involves the academics of the process. REAL Green seeks an edge and guidance from the academics of the process. Timing and location are critical elements for an individual. There is likely still time to relocate. This relocation is not only with place but people. If you are living in a place with no future and can move then do it. This is also true of your local of people that are the groups or the significant other in your life. Leave them or try to adapt them. If none of this is an option then acceptance of and end game is called for. Find meaning that comes with the acceptance of the end of normal. Choose palliative care to adapt to an end game. This becomes a hospice mentality with a lifeboat of things.

This all has to be done in the surreal of living in a world you are making efforts to leave. This world is relative also because often one person’s strategy is not applicable to an others because of how very different locals of people and place are. It is about adapting your dependence on networks and systems. You can’t leave these but you can orientate properly to them in an effort at risk management. This means prepping as insurance to their failure.

Once meaning has been found and an effort at risk management of prepping embraced this is when the journey can become an effort at going green. REAL Green calls this green prepping. What is good for the individual is also green for the planet. A lower footprint of scaling locally in low carbon capture and conservation is also more resilient. This is where the journey also becomes one of education and training. It is where theory meets practice. This is where talking meets lifestyle.

Life is about mortality but also rebirth. Embrace destructive change and find a free niche to create constructive change. This does not mean transcendence of and end game it just means transforming it. This is not a cult but merely and add on to your exiting higher power. Green prep is an Ap to guide and strengthen your existing meaning. Mirroring what is going on with the planet will strengthen you. The planet will assist you because you are embracing the planets way.
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