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Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby dissident » Fri 24 Jul 2020, 16:26:06

JuanP wrote:"Amazon rainforest hit by killer droughts"
https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/06/25 ... #gsc.tab=0

Sooner or later one of these droughts will kill a significant chunk of the Amazon reducing evapotranspiration, which will lead to reduced rains across most of South America East of the Andes. This could become a tipping point for the Amazon jungle with more droughts killing more vegetation which will reduce plant transpiration leading to more droughts in a vicious positive feedback cycle.


I think that is guaranteed that the Amazon ecosystem will transition to a savanna regime before 2100. It is in a meta-sable state where the forest is maintaining regional rainfall through specific aerosol emissions and also managing to recycle nutrients in what is really a leeched desert in terms of the soil.

Human and climate pressure are just too powerful. For some reason there is little coverage of the deforestation which has not stopped. It is acting to reduce the stability of this system to climate stresses. And it is a given that longer term drought periods will occur. This change in dynamics will affect the critical monsoon season in India as well.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 28 Jul 2020, 10:18:47

Every one of these bogs that turn from carbon sink to carbon source represents a little tipping point...

Scientists Record Rapid Carbon Loss from Warming Peatlands

https://phys.org/news/2020-07-scientist ... lands.html

Scientists at the Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory have demonstrated a direct relationship between climate warming and carbon loss in a peatland ecosystem. Their study published in AGU Advances provides a glimpse of potential futures where significant stores of carbon in peat bogs could be released into the atmosphere as greenhouse gases.

... The study found that in just three years, all warmed bog plots turned from carbon sinks into carbon sources—marking the first time whole-ecosystem plots have been used to document such changes. This fundamental shift in the nature of the bog occurred even at the most modest level of warming (about 4 degrees F (2.25°C) above ambient temperature), and showed carbon loss rates five to nearly 20 times faster than historical rates of accumulation.



Paul J. Hanson et al,

Rapid Net Carbon Loss From a Whole‐Ecosystem Warmed Peatland,

AGU Advances (2020)
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com ... 20AV000163
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby jedrider » Wed 29 Jul 2020, 13:03:49

This is fascinating. You can actually SEE climate change in action:

Carbon Emissions Are Chilling The Atmosphere 90 Km Above Antarctica
https://www.sciencealert.com/carbon-emissions-are-chilling-the-atmosphere-90km-above-antarctica-at-the-edge-of-space/amp

June 9, 2020: It’s getting cold in the mesosphere. Very cold. “At polar latitudes (60N-80N) temperatures have been breaking 14-year records in the last few days,” reports Lynn Harvey of the University of Colorado Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics. This development is causing noctilucent clouds (NLCs) to spill out of the Arctic to middle latitudes.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby dissident » Wed 29 Jul 2020, 13:04:05

The whole of the Arctic and sub-Arctic land mass is one big peat-land. The storm is coming and given humanity's lack of collective IQ will probably blow it away.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 03 Aug 2020, 21:32:33

'Worst-Case' CO2 Emissions Scenario Is Best for Assessing Climate Risk and Impacts to 2050

https://phys.org/news/2020-08-worst-cas ... imate.html

The RCP 8.5 CO2 emissions pathway, long considered a "worst case scenario" by the international science community, is the most appropriate for conducting assessments of climate change impacts by 2050, according to a new article published today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Long dismissed as alarmist or misleading, the paper argues that is actually the closest approximation of both historical emissions and anticipated outcomes of current global climate policies, tracking within 1% of actual emissions.

"Not only are the emissions consistent with RCP 8.5 in close agreement with historical total cumulative CO2 emissions (within 1%), but RCP8.5 is also the best match out to mid-century under current and stated policies with still highly plausible levels of CO2 emissions in 2100," the authors wrote. "... Not using RCP8.5 to describe the previous 15 years assumes a level of mitigation that did not occur, thereby skewing subsequent assessments by lessening the severity of warming and associated physical climate risk." ...


Pretty much what I've been saying for quite some time now.

I do find it depressing to be right on such occasions. But I would also appreciate it if people would stop calling those of us who point out that we are pretty much on the worst path 'doomers.' We're just assessing the facts as we see them.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 04 Aug 2020, 01:31:31

dohboi wrote:'Worst-Case' CO2 Emissions Scenario Is Best for Assessing Climate Risk and Impacts to 2050

https://phys.org/news/2020-08-worst-cas ... imate.html

The RCP 8.5 CO2 emissions pathway, long considered a "worst case scenario" by the international science community, is the most appropriate for conducting assessments of climate change impacts by 2050, according to a new article published today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Long dismissed as alarmist or misleading, the paper argues that is actually the closest approximation of both historical emissions and anticipated outcomes of current global climate policies, tracking within 1% of actual emissions.

"Not only are the emissions consistent with RCP 8.5 in close agreement with historical total cumulative CO2 emissions (within 1%), but RCP8.5 is also the best match out to mid-century under current and stated policies with still highly plausible levels of CO2 emissions in 2100," the authors wrote. "... Not using RCP8.5 to describe the previous 15 years assumes a level of mitigation that did not occur, thereby skewing subsequent assessments by lessening the severity of warming and associated physical climate risk." ...


Pretty much what I've been saying for quite some time now.

I do find it depressing to be right on such occasions.


Allow me to congratulate you on being right.

Here is a link to the original paper published in the prestigious Proceedings of the National Academy of Science

pnas.org/content/early/2020/07/30/2007117117

One more thing that is important to note here is the the CO2 emission data in the paper also show that the Paris Climate Accords have utterly failed to reduce CO2 emissions, just as I predicted back when the Paris Accords were signed in 2015. And not only did they fail to reduce emissions.....CO2 emissions are running at the highest projected level.....and CO2 emissions are projected to continue to increase at a high rate through the coming decades.

This means the Paris Accords have utterly failed in the proclaimed goal of reducing CO2 emissions and limiting global T increases. Trump hasn't help matters any by taking the US out of the climate accords, but they aren't working anyway. And Joe Biden's pledge to take the US back into the Paris Climate Accords is also not going to do us any good, because CO2 emissions are increasing so rapidly.

We don't have any time to waste now on reducing CO2 emissions. We need to dump the Paris Climate Accords immediately and enact a new UN global climate treaty that mandates CO2 reductions on a global basis.

But it aint gonna happen, sad to say.

So we might as well get some popcorn and enjoy the show. I think this movie we are living in now should be entitled ORANGE MAN COOK THE EARTH.

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ORANGE MAN COOK THE EARTH. NEXT YEAR BIDEN TAKE OVER AND HE COOK THE EARTH

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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 04 Aug 2020, 15:18:28

And I return the complement for your perspicacity on this and so much else climate related!

Reality has, sadly, certainly seemed to leave the (probably always hopeless) aspirations in parts of the Paris deal far behind...

Even a global pandemic doesn't seem to be slowing the trajectory of our destruction from fossil-death-fueled global warming mayhem
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 05 Aug 2020, 08:24:41

Yup, and it’s not like People in high places don’t have a clue.

This is the upfront summary of the most recent WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM (DAVOS CROWD) RISK ASSESSMENT. Bolding mine.

The 15th edition of the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report is published as critical risks are manifesting. The global economy is facing an increased risk of stagnation, climate change is striking harder and more rapidly than expected, and fragmented cyberspace threatens the full potential of next-generation technologies — all while citizens worldwide protest political and economic conditions and voice concerns about systems that exacerbate inequality. The challenges before us demand immediate collective action, but fractures within the global community appear to only be widening. Stakeholders need to act quickly and with purpose within an unsettled global landscape.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby Ibon » Wed 05 Aug 2020, 09:22:18

Newfie wrote:Yup, and it’s not like People in high places don’t have a clue.

This is the upfront summary of the most recent WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM (DAVOS CROWD) RISK ASSESSMENT. Bolding mine.

The 15th edition of the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report is published as critical risks are manifesting. The global economy is facing an increased risk of stagnation, climate change is striking harder and more rapidly than expected, and fragmented cyberspace threatens the full potential of next-generation technologies — all while citizens worldwide protest political and economic conditions and voice concerns about systems that exacerbate inequality. The challenges before us demand immediate collective action, but fractures within the global community appear to only be widening. Stakeholders need to act quickly and with purpose within an unsettled global landscape.


If you consider just the raw physical assets of infrastructure and food available, the collective know how, the embedded technologies, human civilization is actually in a very strong position to adapt to upcoming calamities, the glass of physical assets is still 95% full.

If however you consider social unrest, national and geo politics, the collective sense of entitlement, the divisiveness and elevated levels of agitation, well on that regard the glass seems less than half full.

Social instabilities seem to be leading indicators of disruption long before the physical assets themselves decline to levels that threaten stability. I wonder if this is always the case when civilizations go through periods of decline.

A sort of paralysis of action takes place. I wonder if this is just a short term shock due to the novelty of experiencing the first threats in many decades or if this paralysis is long term.

How the US handled the pandemic seems a good reference. All the scientific know how, all of the logistical expertise, the physical wealth, that number of hospitals, etc. etc. All the physical tools where abundant and present to manage. Failure happened though because of the weakness of the social institutions, politics, media, indolence in the population, tribalism.

Is this the theme of the 21st century or will there be a return to a more social cohesive strategy?
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 05 Aug 2020, 10:34:35

Yet, most people still assume that what need more of us STEM education and research, while everything else is 'soft' science or pure bs.

We need more than ever to understand who we are and why we interact the way we do and have, which is solidly in the areas of humanities and social sciences.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby dissident » Wed 05 Aug 2020, 14:57:08

dohboi wrote:Yet, most people still assume that what need more of us STEM education and research, while everything else is 'soft' science or pure bs.

We need more than ever to understand who we are and why we interact the way we do and have, which is solidly in the areas of humanities and social sciences.


STEM is not the problem. Society and its culture are. Holistic views of the world are not promoted but instead we have mechanistic can't see the forest for the trees "normality". This is an elite-serving feature. It keeps the sheeple as sheeple and suppresses dissidents and heretics.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 07 Aug 2020, 14:56:58

‘Super-Pollutant’ Emitted by 11 Chinese Chemical Plants Could Equal a Climate Catastrophe

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/0408 ... ate-change

Ranping Song, the author of the World Resources Institute report, said China should also set its sights on reducing non-CO2 greenhouse gases; pollutants like methane, hydrofluorocarbons, highly potent greenhouse gases used in refrigeration and air conditioning, and nitrous oxide.

"If China's non-CO2 emissions were a country, they would be the 7th largest emitter of total GHGs [greenhouse gases] in the world," Song wrote in a blog post last September.

To have a chance at limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees, the world's nations must reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050, Song said. Reducing non-CO2 emissions "offers a range of low cost, feasible technologies that should be deployed," Song told InsideClimate News.

"We think non-CO2 emissions reductions are a good opportunity for China to demonstrate momentum" on climate change."
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby Subjectivist » Fri 07 Aug 2020, 18:31:45

I can't believe the media continues to perpetuate the 1.5C goal when we have already locked in 2C+ in reality. It makes the whole debate seem totally pointless.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby dissident » Fri 07 Aug 2020, 18:56:15

Subjectivist wrote:I can't believe the media continues to perpetuate the 1.5C goal when we have already locked in 2C+ in reality. It makes the whole debate seem totally pointless.


The media is composed of marginally competent and aware journalists and their censor bosses called editors. They no longer have a fig leaf of plausible deniability. They know they are spreading BS.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby suxs » Sat 08 Aug 2020, 04:48:22

Mont Blanc: Glacier collapse risk forces Italy Alps evacuation


Despite Mount Blanc being the highest mountain in Western Europe, Planpincieux glacier, in the Mont Blanc massif, has weakened due to intense summer heat. Residents and tourists are being evacuated in anticipation of the glacier's collapse.

BBC

Iceland's Okjokull glacier commemorated with plaque


Global climate change has claimed another victim. Mourners have gathered in Iceland to commemorate the loss of Okjokull, which has died at the age of about 700.

BBC
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby suxs » Sat 08 Aug 2020, 05:06:13

ORANGE MAN COOK THE EARTH. NEXT YEAR BIDEN TAKE OVER AND HE COOK THE EARTH


So, plant, Trump's DISASTROUS environmental record is one for the history books. Trump stands alone in his aggressive attempts to commit ecocide. According to you, Biden will replicate Trump's record. Really? What facts do you have to support this notion or is this another attempt to set expectations before Biden, if elected, occupies the White House?

Preservation of our environment is not a liberal or conservative challenge; it’s common sense; it’s a moral imperative that all presidents have embraced and it’s non-negotiable…


Who can possibly imagine Trump making such an honest and clear-headed observation? Never. Not to mention he would be dripping with hypocrisy. However, these words were spoken by President Ronald Reagan in his 1984 State of the Union address to the nation. How far we have fallen since then.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 08 Aug 2020, 07:55:27

Sux,

That’s an excellent point. And it was Nixon who signed the clean water act and created the EPA.

We have left “common sense” behind in our blind rush to partisan politics.

Maybe the answer lies in our DNA. On the one hand, in relatively small groups we tend to be highly social. On the other we are very territorial and will fight to the death between competing social groups for no good reason. The question becomes why do we switch from “cooperative” to “adversarial”?

Europe has had a long history of adversarial relations until after WWII. The USA has had relative community since the Civil War. Perhaps we need some serious blood letting to remind us of the advantages of civility?

It surely seems the USA is entirely focused on its internal battles, not unlike a person suffering narrsacistic schizophrenia. We have lost all perspective of time and place just at a critical juncture. Our self centered blind rage is driving us to destruction.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby suxs » Sat 08 Aug 2020, 11:59:24

Newfie-

You are absolutely spot on.

And President Nixon created the Environmental Protection Agency as well!!

You will recall the large holes in the Earth's protective ozone layer that developed over the world's polar regions due to chlorofluorocarbons. Recognizing the grave nature of this global threat, President George W. Bush summoned the Democratic Speaker of the House and Democratic Senate Majority Leader to the White House to hammer out a comprehensive and permanent solution. This was achieved in fairly quick order. President Bush presented a bill to congress to solve the crises. Republicans and Democrats joined together and the legislation was passed. Once the world community of nations saw that the United States, as was expected. provided leadership on the issue, the United Nations responded in kind.

Mission accomplished.

In the fall of 1980, we were privileged to host President Carter at our farm for a barbecue. Although it was campaign season, I'll always remember how the Carter's made it a point of inviting Republican local elected officials and party members. Everyone had a terrific time and the Carter's were the kindest and most gracious people imaginable.

It feels like this happened in a distant bygone era.

What can I say? Aren't we supposed to become wiser with age and experience? Increasingly, this is a world I no longer recognize.
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Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 08 Aug 2020, 12:51:22

suxs wrote:So, plant, Trump's DISASTROUS environmental record is one for the history books. Trump stands alone in his aggressive attempts to commit ecocide.


Not really. If you look at what people do instead of what they say, there is another US President with an even worse record then Trump.

If you look at Obama's record he provoked a petty quarrel with China at the 2009 COP meeting in Copenhagen and derailed the signing of a comprehensive, binding UN treaty to REQUIRE CO2 emission reductions that the UN had painstakingly negotiated for the preceding 15 years.

Then Obama completely abandoned decades of bipartisan US efforts to get a binding CO2 emission reduction treaty passed at the UN, and instead said we should shift to getting treaties with phony limits on global temperature increases but purely voluntary CO2 commitments to reduce CO2 in the treaty. And even worse, Obama signed separate treaties with China and with India that allow them to emit all the CO2 they want. Thats how we got the Paris Accords and thats why global CO2 is continuing to go up....THe Paris Accords are essentially a replay of the failed Kyoto Accords which were also voluntary and which we know already utterly failed to reduce CO2 emissions. But Obama wants to waste another 20 years on a failed treaty that won't reduce Co2 emissions. So.... how's that empty pledge to keep the world below 2* C of warming going for you?

IMHO Obama bears significant personal responsibility for derailing the global climate treaty that was set to be signed and Copenhagen and he is personally responsible for the diverting the UN climate treaty process towards the disastrous Paris Accords which have done NOTHING to reduce CO2 emissions. I'd put Obama and Trump into a tie for #1 on my global climate criminal list. And if Biden also does nothing to reduce global emissions, I'll add him to the list of climate criminals as well.

suxs wrote:According to you, Biden will replicate Trump's record. Really? What facts do you have to support this notion or is this another attempt to set expectations before Biden, if elected, occupies the White House?


You have to pay attention to Biden's policy proposals. Biden's response to global warming is to put the US back in the toothless Paris Climate Accords. But if you look at the numbers, the Paris Climate Accords have utterly failed to reduce global CO2 emissions. Perhaps it satisfies you to have the President make empty promises? For me...its not enough. I want to see global CO2 emissions reductions, AND global CH4 reductions, AND global HFC reductions, AND global SF6 reductions. And Biden....just like Obama.....seems to be satisfied with saying nice things but doing nothing to reduce global emissions of greenhouse gases.

Image
Notice how global temperature increases ACCELERATED right after Obama derailed the UN treaty to REQUIRE CO2 emissions reductions in 2009? And then Trump did nothing. And now Biden is promising to do nothing to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions....

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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby suxs » Sat 08 Aug 2020, 17:06:07

Plant-

News flash.... obviously you haven't noticed that the environment encompasses far more than climate change. Your simplistic editorial fails to address the myriad environmental issues threatening civilization. Let's start with the climate since you devoted your entire post to this single issue.

Trump's foundational approach is from the perspective of denailism. According to Trump, AGW is fake- a hoax perpetrated by scientists, environmentalists, and Democrats to access money. Regardless of your rhetoric, the fact that Trump denies climate change means the entire issue is a non-starter.

Now, let's analyze specific changes Trump has implemented. A personal editorial is devoid of content- space filler with personal opinion. Worthless.

Per National Geographic and Politico Fact Checkers:

1. 1. U.S. Pulls Out of Paris Climate Agreement

This is perhaps the decision that set the tone for the Trump administration's approach to the environment: Trump's withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement and total abandonment of this issue. Trump's decision signaled a complete withdrawal of American leadership in international climate change agreements. Trump signaled a USA only perspective.

2. Trump EPA Scraps Clean Power plan

The Clean Power Plan was one of Obama's signature environmental policies. It required the energy sector to cut carbon emissions by 32 percent by 2030, but in October 2017 it was gutted by Trump's EPA. Among the reasons cited were unfair burdens on the power sector and a “war on coal.”

3. Trump EPA Weakens Regulations on Toxic Air Pollution

This regulation revolved around a complicated rule referred to as “once in, always in” or OIAI. Essentially, OIAI said that if a company polluted over the legal limit, they would have to match the lowest levels set by their industry peers and they would have to match them indefinitely. By dropping OIAI, the Trump EPA removed the requirement to maintain acceptable emissions the moment the target is met.

4. Trump Rescinds Methane-Flaring Rules

Under the Affordable Clean Energy rule issued in August 2018, states were given more power over regulating emissions. In states like California, that means regulations would likely be stricter, whereas states that produce fossil fuels are likely to weaken regulations. The following month, the EPA announced they would relax rules around releasing methane flares, inspecting equipment, and repairing leaks.

5. Trump Eliminates Obama-era Fuel Economy Rules

Under the Obama administration's fuel economy targets, cars made after 2012 would, on average, have to get 54 miles per gallon by 2025. In August 2018, the Trump Department of Transportation and EPA capped that target at 34 miles per gallon by 2021. The decision created legal conflict with states like California that have higher emission caps.

6. Trump Revoked Flood Standards accounting for sea-level rise

In August 2017, Trump revoked an Obama-era executive order that required federally funded projects to factor rising sea levels into construction.

7. Waters of the U.S. Rule revocation

What are the “waters of the U.S.?” President Trump issued an executive order in 2017 ordering the EPA to formally review what waters fell under the jurisdiction of the EPA and Army Corps of Engineers according to the 1972 Clean Water Act. The proposed change narrowed the definition of what's considered a federally protected river or wetland.

8. NOAA green lights seismic airgun blasts for oil and gas drilling

Trump approved to use seismic air gun blasts to search for underwater oil and gas deposits. The deafening blasts cause irreparable harm to marine mammals that use sonar to communicate and kill plankton. The blasts were shot down by the Bureau of Energy Management in 2017 but approved after NOAA found they would not violate the Marine Mammal Protection Act.

9. Trump Guts Critically Endangered Sage Grouse Protection

Despite the uniquely American sage grouse, a bird resembling a turkey with spiked feathers precariously positioned one small step away from extinction, Trump removed restrictions to protect the endangered bird.

10. Trump officials Aggressively Lobbying for Revocation of the Highly Successful Endangered Species Act

In July of 2018, the Trump administration announced its intention to discard the Endangered Species Act, saying economic considerations more important than an endangered animal's habitat.

11. Trump Guts Migratory Bird Treaty Act

Companies installing large wind turbines, constructing power lines, or leaving oil exposed are no longer violating the Migratory Bird Treaty Act if their activities kill birds. This change was declared by Trump in December of 2017.

12. Trump Dramatically Downsized Two New National Monuments

Unlike national parks, which have to be approved by Congress, national monuments can be created by an executive order, which the president said means they can be dismantled just as easily. Such was the case for Bears Ears and Grand Staircase-Escalante in Utah, which President Trump reduced and opened for mining and drilling companies in 2017. Tribes and environmental groups are challenging that interpretation in court.

13. Trump executive order results in a sharp logging increase on public lands, including virgin forest stands, which now occupy less than 2% of America's total land area.

Just a day before the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, President Trump issued an executive order that called for a 30 percent increase in logging on public lands. Trump's decision was advertised as "wildfire prevention."

14. Trump drops climate change from list of national security threats

The Trump administration's decision delisted climate change from national security threats in December of 2017 resulting in less Department of Defense research funding and a nationalistic viewpoint on the potential impacts of wildfires, droughts, hurricanes, and other natural disasters.

15. EPA criminal enforcement hits 30-year low

The size and influence of the EPA has shrunk under the Trump administration, and it's illustrated by their diminished prosecuting power. Criminal prosecutions are at a 30-year low, and many violations that would have been prosecuted in the past are now being negotiated with companies. The result: open season for polluters.

16. Trump administration reverses Alaska hunting ban and allows black bear cubs, wolf pups to be killed in dens

The Trump administration will allow increased hunting and trapping on federal wildlife preserves in Alaska, green-lighting practices that include shooting swimming caribou from motorboats, setting dogs on black bears and killing bear cubs and wolf pups in their dens.

17. For the first time since the creation of America's national wildlife refuge system by President Teddy Roosevelt, Trump Opened 2.3 million acres of land for hunting and fishing at more than 100 national wildlife refuges and fish hatcheries.

18. For the first time since the creation of the America's and the world's park system, Trump begins selling off the people's lands.

19. And the list goes on and on and on.
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