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THE Fracking Thread pt 4

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 4

Unread postby sparky » Sun 19 Jul 2020, 21:52:21

.
it looks like legalities are being overtaken by financialities
With the European glut in natural gas , storage full summer at hand and the covirus messing things some
the world price of LNG has dropped to close of the piped gas price
this means that the liquefaction and transport are dead costs
in an interesting marketing tool Cheniere has an option for buyers to cancel deliveries for a fee
they are now taking it with a vengeance , for the third month in a row
the result is that Cheniere is now making ( a little ) money from not shipping LNG

From Reuters
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-l ... SKBN23T2GJ
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 4

Unread postby dissident » Mon 20 Jul 2020, 15:06:55

sparky wrote:.
it looks like legalities are being overtaken by financialities
With the European glut in natural gas , storage full summer at hand and the covirus messing things some
the world price of LNG has dropped to close of the piped gas price
this means that the liquefaction and transport are dead costs
in an interesting marketing tool Cheniere has an option for buyers to cancel deliveries for a fee
they are now taking it with a vengeance , for the third month in a row
the result is that Cheniere is now making ( a little ) money from not shipping LNG

From Reuters
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-l ... SKBN23T2GJ


The current prices say zero about the future price. LNG cannot be supplied for cheap since it costs to liquify to the tune of 30% out of a given unit of gas. That is not 3%. So all the current de facto dumping on the European market is a political ploy to con the suckers. After things settle down into a Brave New World, Europeans are going to pay for this magical LNG through every orifice.

The attention span of the average sucker is a few days. Unless reminded by the fake stream media they have no way to recall what happened a year ago. This is why western civilization is crumbling. The easy life rots the brain.
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 4

Unread postby sparky » Tue 21 Jul 2020, 04:01:59

.
A bit harsh , but the truth is a cruel thing
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 4

Unread postby JuanP » Wed 22 Jul 2020, 09:44:02

"Will US shale ever see another Golden Age?"
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/W ... n-Age.html
Only Americans can hurt America.
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 4

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Wed 22 Jul 2020, 14:04:13

The above linked oilprice article contains a wealth of information to a discerning observer.
The final 4 paragraphs point the way forward to those wondering what to expect 12/18 months out ... barring the all-too-common cataclysmic upheavals the world seems to be routinely witnessing lately.

Setting aside the "$300 billion in debt, $450 billion in writeoffs" drama we all have been hearing for a decade now, the authoress of that article DOES acknowledge that world leading production from the US has resulted.
Exactly ... but, wait, there's MORE!!

In addition to the tangible assets that include over 100 000 producing wells, millions of productive acres of land held indefinitely, infrastructure to store and economically transport this fuel GLOBALLY (US LTO is THE preferred feedstock for marine fuel LSFO), the biggest asset of all was not even mentioned in that article ... namely the undisputed lock on the technology of production in this world of 'unconventional' hydrocarbon production.
From drilling, completing, data analyzing, marketing ... US operators have amassed an insurmountable (for now) advantage that is ALREADY, demonstrably pushing aside competing sources of hydrocarbons.

If anyone reads/re-reads that above article, notice something missing?
Yes, of course it is the impact of $40/bbl oil on producing nations' economies.
KSA needs ~$83/bbl to pay the 16,000 princes' monthly stipends, the free health care, subsidized housing, fuel, etc that underlies the 'legitimacy' of the House of Saud.
The Al Sabah, Al Thani, et al regimes are in identical positions.
This is why the frenzy to kneecap US 'Shale'.

Allied with friends du jour in the 'environmental movement' and others (check out the indictments in Ohio stemming from nuke plant owner payoffs), you folks who are unable to recognize that US 'shale' operators are ALREADY able to produce oil at the incredible price points of $45/$55 bbl, $2/$2.50 mmbtu, will continue to be dumbfounded, perplexed, and - probably - enraged when the upstream boys come roaring back in the coming months.

Cowboyistan now and foevuh!
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 4

Unread postby sparky » Thu 23 Jul 2020, 05:55:26

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I read the article above as "peak drilling rigs " at least for a few coming years

A point to consider is that "conventional" oil is also hitting the wall with development of a field ever more costly
especially the deep offshore ,
the return on considerable investments will get a few pen pushers to scratch their heads
the oil companies have slashed their Capex budget , Oil is not such a star anymore for investment bankers
the article prediction of a tightening of supply by 2025 ,
leading to a rise in price above fracking costs , looks like a safe prediction
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 4

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Thu 23 Jul 2020, 20:58:33

Sparky
If you have been following this 'oil' drama for several years, surely you must be familiar with the roller coaster, frequently inaccurate predictions from analysts, industry professionals, armchair pundits, and others who have SO much difficulty in attempting to peer into the future.
I never make claims of any sort (despite noticing build ups of market tensions) other than to be assured that - 12 months hence - things will be somewhat different than today.

At the moment, an under appreciated aspect is just how economical much US unconventional development has become.
Absent changes in government/social policies in countries in the Middle East and elsewhere, those governing regimes are apt to face strong (extreme?) pressure from their populations as reduced hydrocarbon revenues stress the status quo.

Destroying the 'shale' industry is akin to whacking a water puddle with a hammer.
Won't work.

If/when WTI gets back to 50 bucks, watch the tempo increase.
With ~8,000 DUCs just sitting there (maybe 6 month turn in line supply), the operators will continue to tread water for a bit.

This is a global game of chicken with the highest of stakes.
The speech today by Secretary Pompeo at the Nixon Library should send shivers up and down the spines of discerning observers worldwide.
Interesting times be a'comin.
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Re: THE Fracking Thread pt 4

Unread postby sparky » Fri 24 Jul 2020, 08:32:24

.
a factor which might matter some , is that the US dollar has the wobbles
oil price being priced as a world commodity ,
this result in domestic producers getting more greenbacks for their production
but I totally agree that all predictions are likely to be failures
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