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Coronavirus Investing

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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 05 May 2020, 16:25:15

vtsnowedin wrote:What I am seeing is larger 5KW to 10KW systems that may or may not be grid tied. Generac company sells complete systems using wall batteries they call PWRcells equivalent to Tesal's power walls some have propane or diesel powered generators for double backup. The local power company is resisting taking in solar power into their grid but regulators are pushing it. With sufficient battery you can use most of summer sunlight even if you can't sell excess to the grid then tap the grid in winter when the roof is snow covered for days etc. I expect the base bill for those using the grid that way to go up to cover the cost of maintaining the distribution lines that are being used less.

That sounds like a great idea, even for those forced to be on the grid re various rules if living in cities. At least that way one should be able to avoid the top tier rates all the time.

i have a Generac whole house generator (runs on NG or propane -- I chose NG since I have that service and didn't want to fool with a propane tank and filling/maintaining that and the potential explosion hazard) which has been wonderful. For 8 years now, all it's needed is oil changes and one battery replacement (it uses a car battery to start). All my power outages are roughly 30 seconds, even when major windstorms cause outages for several days. It tests itself weekly, so no unpleasant surprises.

But having THAT backing up a Generac battery backed small-ish solar grid sounds perfect. Long outages, I have the generator. Short outages and at night, etc., I have battery power, without needing to spend a fortune on batteries to have enough for several day outages.

This is an example of the INCREMENTAL move to solar/green, that makes sense economically, and therefore is likely inexorable, OVER TIME. And to the extent it makes your system more reliable (with grid, solar, batteries, and a generator, you have FOUR power inputs), it's also better for the consumer.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 05 May 2020, 16:30:39

mmasters wrote:Decided the next updraft in the market I'm going to cash out except for a modest stake in Gilead/remdesivir. The whole market is reminding me of the dot com bubble burst in the early stages so I'm out.

Agree re the market perhaps being overvalued vs. the risks. OTOH, the market is still down meaningfully, and accurately timing these things is well nigh impossible. I'm more likely to gradually scale out of more risky things as the market climbs. For example, who would have predicted WTI up nearly 5 bucks (last quote) today, AFTER roughly doubling, from panic lows about two weeks ago? I certainly wouldn't have, and yet anyone making bets that June would collapse like May by shorting are likely pulling lots of sharp shard-shaped things out of their asses about now.

All I'm saying is short term trading is REALLY hard, and hindsight is 20-20.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 05 May 2020, 16:41:55

Newfie wrote:EU,

Yup, lots and lots of questions. I think NYC real estate will take a bit. You MUST ride the subway. Philly may get a bounce, it is walkable, don’t NEED to ride the subway.

The entire Caribbean basin Ins shut o tourism. The question is how soon can they bring back flights. It already seen an editorial speculating it will be Jan/Feb before things get moving. The islands have largely avoided the virus and many are not anxious to reopen. If they reopen and then get the virus it begs the question “Why did we shut down?”

My financial advisor is worried about inflation and suggesting “physical asset” investments. That makes sense to me. I found a REIT that specializes in cold storage warehouses. I think that’s a winner.

I used to HATE the idea of living in a big city for personality reasons. Lots of crowds. Even just walking down the street down town. High prices. Pressure like trouble parking, traffic jams, etc. EVERY DAY adds up -- at least for people like me who hate stress (and at least are willing to admit it).

Now, with COVID-19 and population density being a risk, big city living would be a total NIGHTMARE, IMO.

But are there enough of people like me, and is that "investable"? Nary a clue here.

The big issue still is how long does this last?: the time to a successful vaccine conferring herd immunity, for example, could be months to years. And NO WAY, IMO, re predict that to an investable level of accurcay (without RELIABLE insider info). And who the hell can say which such info would be reliable before things play out)? I would say no one, though opinions (including those of conspiracy theorists) will of course, vary.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... ccine.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/coronav ... tests.html

(The above would be great news IF the human trials are sucessful and that vaccine is approved. But what are the odds of that? (I have nary a clue except to realize they aren't high for that one vaccine).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 05 May 2020, 16:45:16

mmasters wrote:Picked up some DTO today (double short oil). A week or so ago it was at 300, now it's at 100. With oil at about 25 I think it's going to go back down to 15 or 20. Easy money hopefully!

Or a way to lose your shirt. Apriori, virtually no way to tell. Good luck. (I sure as hell don't have a clue - but it's not like $25 is exactly HIGH in recent history). Potentially good money, but saying '"easy money" is, IMO, hurbris or misplaced confidence in the face of a very complex set of moving parts.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby mmasters » Tue 05 May 2020, 16:51:32

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
mmasters wrote:Picked up some DTO today (double short oil). A week or so ago it was at 300, now it's at 100. With oil at about 25 I think it's going to go back down to 15 or 20. Easy money hopefully!

Or a way to lose your shirt. Apriori, virtually no way to tell. Good luck. (I sure as hell don't have a clue - but it's not like $25 is exactly HIGH in recent history). Potentially good money, but saying '"easy money" is, IMO, hurbris or misplaced confidence in the face of a very complex set of moving parts.

It's a small bet. I've heard some of the top oil traders say 15-20 is where oil is at. Being there's still a glut forming I think it's worth the risk.
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 05 May 2020, 18:00:29

Outcast.

Even in this time of uncertainty some things are certain; ironically it is uncertainty. And when stuff is uncertain people get upset and move then to close ranks, lol for safety. They tend to withdraw not reach out.

To extend that to investing I am thinking it means we will encourage bringing manufacturing home. We have lost some faith in JIT delivery. Like we stock up in food we will want more warehouses to keep stuff, preferably automated warehouses to eliminate people. Including cold storage to keep perishables. And we when uncertain we want to be connected, and have more security systems; more cell sites and data centers.

Any, that’s where I think the investment opportunities are. I’m looking at specialty REIT in these markets. Because if there is a lot of inflation then you typically want physical assets. And REITS can own the property: I.e. data centers. So it should be a hedge against inflation.

Have an ally to discuss with my financial guy Friday. I think he and I are in synch, not 100% sure.
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby evilgenius » Wed 06 May 2020, 13:42:14

How does one profit from social instability? What if there are riots? Right wing nut cases have been at the capitol in my state, asking for quarantine to lift. They've also been in many others. Combine that with America's race problems, and we may have a bad summer.

I also think that capitalism is going to increasingly get called into question. Throw that into the mix, and we may see some pressures we never thought we would. It depends upon who orchestrates the response, but with Trump in charge it could go from a small thing to a big thing very quickly. He would take a side. His side would be with the head busters. There must be a way to make money from head busting, but I'm not sure I want to.
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 06 May 2020, 15:16:49

evilgenius wrote:Right wing nut cases have been at the capitol in my state, asking for quarantine to lift. They've also been in many others.


No doubt there were also some working class people (AKA deplorables) there and a number of small business owners there as well who are concerned about job losses and going bankrupt.

evilgenius wrote:I also think that capitalism is going to increasingly get called into question. Throw that into the mix, and we may see some pressures we never thought we would. It depends upon who orchestrates the response, but with Trump in charge it could go from a small thing to a big thing very quickly. He would take a side. His side would be with the head busters. There must be a way to make money from head busting, but I'm not sure I want to.


Bernie Sanders tried to call capitalism into question but it didn't work for him. The country seems to want a return to the "good old days"....hence the Ds chose a candidate from the good old days who is promising a return to the past.....Joe Biden.

Personally, I think Joe Biden is a remarkably bad choice, but a backward looking return to the past seems to be what the people voting in the D primaries wanted.

Cheers!
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 09 May 2020, 09:24:01

Yep, Plantagenet, I think that Biden is a remarkably bad choice as well. He's the guy who had to back out of one of his previous attempts at running because he plagiarized Neal Kinnock. He has a problem with the truth. Oh, he will own up to it, eventually. But over the current accusations against him? I don't know about that. It does make me wonder why that woman who has accused him didn't speak up earlier, when the tussle over who gets voted for in the primaries was still going strong. If Biden is guilty, and that's a big if, and he doesn't cave, you had better hope there is still such a thing as super delegates. The convention is going to be a mess. We try things like this these days in the court of public opinion. Who knows which way that will go? But the convention, and the party, are at stake.

All the same, regardless of the motivation, there will be questioning about capitalism. It's like a funnel, or a prism through which the establishment sees things. People have not gotten much support during this crisis. The bungled attempts at stimulus have been thrown about like children playing water games on the lawn. Where they put the big slide the grass is all mashed down. And the area right round that did get wet. A few feet over, the lawn is drying up. Summer is coming. It could be a hot one. It won't just knock out the virus.
Last edited by evilgenius on Sat 09 May 2020, 09:43:47, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 09 May 2020, 09:39:46

Speaking of heat and water, I think water is a good long-term play. There is a little company called Consolidated Water Company - CWCO. I don't own them, but I have been following them for a few years. They do desalinization. I wish that I owned them.
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 09 May 2020, 09:41:06

Evil,

The Biden issue is less about what he did or did not do. First of all there is pretty strong contemporary evidence he did something from her ex husbands 1996 court documents.

The real debate is over the difference in how the Kavanaugh case was handled. There was much less Coover’s to g evidence there. So it’s an issue of hipocracy.

Second there is e fact that Biden is a poor candidate - FOR THE AMERICAN PEOPLE. He is a great candidate for the Democratic Party because he is weak, is beholden and will do as directed.

Again it’s less a matter of Trump or Biden, both represent the parties. The parties do not represent the American public.

That’s why I would rather see an independent and I kind of like Justin Amash. I do not like some of his positions on particular matters. But those matter properly reside in Congress. I think he would make a good Chief Executive. Because he understands the Presidents job is to enforce the law, manage the country, not shape the country.
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 09 May 2020, 12:43:32

Newfie wrote:it’s an issue of hipocracy.[sic]


Just as the republicans were hypocrites by impeaching Clinton while defending Trump, or bible-belters supporting Trump in the first place considering his personal "grab by the p*ssy" lapses of character.

Lots of pots calling kettles black.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 09 May 2020, 13:10:57

asg70 wrote:
Newfie wrote:it’s an issue of hipocracy.[sic]


Just as the republicans were hypocrites by impeaching Clinton while defending Trump, or bible-belters supporting Trump in the first place considering his personal "grab by the p*ssy" lapses of character.

Lots of pots calling kettles black.


Again it’s less a matter of Trump or Biden, both represent the parties. The parties do not represent the American public.
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Fri 15 May 2020, 22:34:35

I would be investing in a veggy garden, face masks and hand sanatiser for a while yet
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 16 May 2020, 04:25:53

Shaved Monkey wrote:I would be investing in a veggy garden, face masks and hand sanatiser for a while yet
I'm in on the garden and the wife has taken a strong position on masks and sanitizer for her office. :)
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby REAL Green » Sat 16 May 2020, 05:56:27

asg70 wrote:Lots of pots calling kettles black.


This is the real issue that bothers me not how bad the options are with Biden or Trump. It is the destruction of the constitutional fabric in a time of decline that poses grave risk. The extremist left is out of control and the crimes are now apparent to the honest. Obamagate is so much bigger than Watergate! Yet, in these times of moral hazard and fake news this worst crime in US history is being denied by the left. The extremist left mirrors Biden and his ineptitude. BTW, I voted for Obama so I feel lied to.

“The Complete "Collusion Against Trump" Timeline”
https://sharylattkisson.com/2020/05/col ... -timeline/

“It's easy to find timelines that detail Trump-Russia collusion developments. Here are links to two of them I recommend: Politifact Russia-Trump timeline Washington Post Russia-Trump timeline On the other side, evidence has emerged that makes it clear there were organized efforts to collude against candidate Donald Trump - and then President Trump. For example: Anti-Russian Ukrainians allegedly helped coordinate and execute a campaign against Trump in partnership with the Democratic National Committee and news reporters. A Yemen-born ex-British spy reportedly delivered political opposition research against Trump to reporters, Sen. John McCain, and the FBI; the latter of which used the material--in part--to obtain wiretaps against one or more Trump-related associates. There were orchestrated leaks of anti-Trump information and allegations to the press, including by ex-FBI Director James Comey. The U.S. intel community allegedly engaged in questionable surveillance practices and politially-motivated "unmaskings" of U.S. citizens, including Trump officials. Alleged conflicts of interests have surfaced regarding FBI officials who cleared Hillary Clinton for mishandling classified information and who investigated Trump's alleged Russia ties.”
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 16 May 2020, 06:26:12

REAL Green,
I find the biggest hipocracy being the prosecution of Flynn for lying and the NON-prosecution of Clinton for lying. Anyone half awake knows she testified to the FBI that she had no knowledge of the security procedures and didn’t remember signing that she had taken the training or the training BUT during the first debate she went in at length that she knew all about the training and made sure it was enforced.

As to Comey et al folks seem to forget that in 2016 Comey was messing with Clinton, not formally indicting her (why?) but releasing info about the investigations including the crazy Dick Weiner thing. Hilary blamed her loss on Comey’s actions (among many things). In 2926 he was hated by the D’s. Then he turned on Trump. And now the D’s love him.

What is consistent is that Comey was trying to put himself in a position of power over the Presidency.
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby REAL Green » Sat 16 May 2020, 06:35:36

Newfie wrote:REAL Green,
I find the biggest hipocracy being the prosecution of Flynn for lying and the NON-prosecution of Clinton for lying.


The Flynn case exposed the dirty laundry and I have to applaud Sydney Powell and her amazing strength to stand up to the deap state in this case. This is an amazing read and I wish she would run for President!

“OPEN MEMORANDUM To: Barack Hussein Obama From: Sidney Powell”
http://www.SidneyPowell.com Date:
May 13, 2020 Re:
“Your Failure to Find Precedent for Flynn Dismissal”
file:///C:/Users/16364/Documents/2020%20docs/articles/politics/Obama-Memo-Edits-NEW-FINAL.pdf
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Re: Coronavirus Investing

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 30 Jun 2020, 18:17:54

Updates on vaccines for Covid19 and investing opportunities



https://www.fool.com/amp/investing/2020 ... ccine.aspx




Swaminathan thinks that the COVID-19 vaccine being developed by AstraZeneca (NYSE:AZN) and the University of Oxford should be viewed as the top contender right now. There are two main reasons why.

First, the AstraZeneca-Oxford AZD1222 vaccine is already in a phase 3 clinical study. No other COVID-19 vaccine candidates have yet advanced to late-stage testing. Swaminathan specifically noted "how advanced they are" and "the stage at which they are" in naming the vaccine being developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford as the likely leader.

Second, Swaminathan said that she thinks "AstraZeneca certainly has a more global scope at the moment in terms of where they are doing and planning their vaccine trials." The late-stage testing of AZD1222 will be conducted in several countries, with trials already in progress in the United Kingdom, Brazil, and South Africa.

The vaccine candidate was originally developed by the University of Oxford's Jenner Institute. AstraZeneca teamed up with Oxford in April and owns the rights to distribute the COVID-19 vaccine globally. AZD1222 was one of only a handful of novel coronavirus vaccines selected by the Trump administration to receive federal funds as part of Operation Warp Speed, an initiative to rapidly develop a safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine.





Stephane Bancel, Moderna's CEO, is optimistic about the chances of success. He said in a CNBC interview recently that he believes that the probability of mRNA-1273 going on to win approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration is between 80% and 90%.



I follow a few websites that are tracking vaccines that are not investment sites. I have never seen any of these other sites make a claim like 80- 90% confidence level of approval. I would take that with a grain of salt. Investment sites do like to pump up certain stocks.

But who knows, phase 3 means by the end of the year we will be getting very close to possible approval.
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