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China is finished... This is the End of China

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: China is finished... This is the End of China

Unread postby REAL Green » Tue 30 Jun 2020, 16:59:03

JuanP wrote:"Chinese economy may have grown as much as 3% in Q2, no huge monetary stimulus seen."
https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1193107.shtml


Big deal JuanP. 3% in Q2 that is a very short time. This growth is not solid growth becuase it is forced growth to get businesses back to work with few places to sell those export products. The 3% is coming off a low China has not seen in modern times. You are crowing like a typical Sinophile about nothing. Get back to me how swell they are doing by Christmas.

"Wealthy Chinese Rushing To Move Cash Abroad Ahead Of Yuan Weakness"
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/wealt ... n-weakness

"Wealthy Chinese citizens are going to great lengths to move money out of the country amid worries over a weakening Yuan and growing trade tensions with the United States, according to the Nikkei Asian Review."
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Re: China is finished... This is the End of China

Unread postby jedrider » Wed 01 Jul 2020, 16:11:57

The Hong Kong take over by mainland China is another failure for the Trump administration.

Hong Kong Police Make First Arrests Under New Security Law Imposed By China
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/hong-kong-police-first-arrests-security-law-china_n_5efc4709c5b612083c54de7c

China is not finished. Democracy maybe is. We were supposed to be able to push China towards Democracy.

Instead, Trump spent his efforts courting NK and Russia.

This is big (or bigly). The US no longer holds sway over their actions.
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Re: China is finished... This is the End of China

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 01 Jul 2020, 16:50:07

jedrider wrote:The Hong Kong take over by mainland China is another failure for the Trump administration.

Hong Kong Police Make First Arrests Under New Security Law Imposed By China
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/hong-kong-police-first-arrests-security-law-china_n_5efc4709c5b612083c54de7c

China is not finished. Democracy maybe is. We were supposed to be able to push China towards Democracy.

Instead, Trump spent his efforts courting NK and Russia.

This is big (or bigly). The US no longer holds sway over their actions.

As much as I'm NOT a fan of Trump, you won't convince me HRC would have magically prevented this. There might have been more rhetoric, including US whining. But at the end of the day, the Chinese were going to have their way with Hong Kong. What was the US going to do to prevent it?

Stop trade with China? I don't think so, and look how much whining the US left did over Trump's tariffs and their impact on trade, lest you forget.

Start a hot war with China? I REALLY don't think so.
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Re: China is finished... This is the End of China

Unread postby jedrider » Wed 01 Jul 2020, 17:02:46

Of course, the Chinese take over of Hong Kong was a forgone conclusion. The first WEAK leader of the Free World and BAM, there you have it.
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Re: China is finished... This is the End of China

Unread postby JuanP » Wed 01 Jul 2020, 18:21:18

The Chinese took over HongvKong 23 years ago.
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Re: China is finished... This is the End of China

Unread postby dolanbaker » Wed 01 Jul 2020, 18:35:41

JuanP wrote:The Chinese took over HongvKong 23 years ago.

Once the UK handed the whole territory as opposed to only the "new territories" the bit which was leased from China, (the remainder of Hong Kong could have remained British indefinitely, under the terms of the treaties that Britain agreed after the Opium wars), it was only a matter of time before the Chinese imposed full mainland Chinese law there.
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Re: China is finished... This is the End of China

Unread postby JuanP » Thu 02 Jul 2020, 09:48:51

"Hong Kong celebrates 23rd anniversary of return to motherland"
https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1193157.shtml
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Re: China is finished... This is the End of China

Unread postby dissident » Thu 02 Jul 2020, 17:30:34

dolanbaker wrote:
JuanP wrote:The Chinese took over HongvKong 23 years ago.

Once the UK handed the whole territory as opposed to only the "new territories" the bit which was leased from China, (the remainder of Hong Kong could have remained British indefinitely, under the terms of the treaties that Britain agreed after the Opium wars), it was only a matter of time before the Chinese imposed full mainland Chinese law there.


Cute how colonialist aggression is "legal" in the eyes of the colonialist residents even over a century and a half later. The UK "court" decision to rob Venezuela of its gold in the last few days is another feather in the cap of sanctimonious pirates playing morally superior "authorities".

Hong Kong never belonged to the UK. Land grabs don't have a statute of limitations. And pointing to Chinese wrong doing does not give you any special rights to decide for Hong Kong and Venezuela. At the end of the day, all this self-anointed righteous police fervour serves your own economic interests. Piracy, plain and simple.
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Re: China is finished... This is the End of China

Unread postby JuanP » Thu 02 Jul 2020, 18:17:20

"China's domestic aviation market sees steady recovery"
https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1193360.shtml

China's economic recovery from the pandemic continues to beat the USA's in every single aspect.
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Re: China is finished... This is the End of China

Unread postby ralfy » Thu 02 Jul 2020, 22:36:07

Issues concerning the Opium Wars and others are mentioned here:

"The Coming War on China"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IC_HEl4iwlA

That is, Western powers driven by the petrodollar and global domination attempting to encircle China and Russia through a grand chessboard strategy involving hundreds of U.S. military bases and installations, and China breaking the encirclement through combinations of military structures established in the South China Sea (together with others, from Taiwan to Vietnam) and soft power.
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Re: China is finished... This is the End of China

Unread postby JuanP » Sun 05 Jul 2020, 21:19:52

"China's GDP predicted to grow 1-3% despite floods and pandemic"
https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1193563.shtml
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Re: China is finished... This is the End of China

Unread postby REAL Green » Mon 06 Jul 2020, 05:08:56

JuanP wrote:"China's GDP predicted to grow 1-3% despite floods and pandemic"
https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1193563.shtml


We have been through this Juan, the CCP has the country forced to power up but with very few export opportunities. This means at some point unless the rest of the world starts buying China just built up inventory waiting to sell. This 1-3% is horrible considering it has been said for so many years China needs 6% to keep the doors open to that country. The other issue is can you trust anything out of China economically?
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Re: China is finished... This is the End of China

Unread postby JuanP » Mon 06 Jul 2020, 17:42:44

"BRI: route of life and opportunity"
https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1193660.shtml

Trade along the Belt and Road Initiative continues to experience explosive growth in spite of the pandemic and the global economic crisis.
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Re: China is finished... This is the End of China

Unread postby REAL Green » Mon 06 Jul 2020, 17:52:31

JuanP wrote:Trade along the Belt and Road Initiative continues to experience explosive growth in spite of the pandemic and the global economic crisis.


Global Times is a Chinese rag, JuanP, of course they are going to say that. The reality is the whole BRI endeavor will be a massive haircut for the Chinese. Venezuela comes to mind as a good example except on steroids.
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Re: China is finished... This is the End of China

Unread postby jedrider » Mon 06 Jul 2020, 20:46:29

ralfy wrote:Issues concerning the Opium Wars and others are mentioned here:

"The Coming War on China"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IC_HEl4iwlA

That is, Western powers driven by the petrodollar and global domination attempting to encircle China and Russia through a grand chessboard strategy involving hundreds of U.S. military bases and installations, and China breaking the encirclement through combinations of military structures established in the South China Sea (together with others, from Taiwan to Vietnam) and soft power.


What China is missing is being a leader in integrated circuit technology. Too bad China put a heavy hand on Hong Kong. There are many expatriate Chinese with IC knowledge that won't go back for a reason.
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Re: China is finished... This is the End of China

Unread postby REAL Green » Tue 07 Jul 2020, 06:35:15

The bubbles (markets) are being maintained in the world’s two largest economies but for how long?

“Is This The Real Reason For China's Massive Market Meltup?”
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/real- ... ket-meltup

“Now that Hong Kong is facing a creeping monetary boycott by the US, and more importantly, by the US financial system as a result of its de facto annexation by China, a pesky question has emerged: how will China procure those much needed dollars which are oh so critical to keep the Chinese financial system, all $40 trillion of it, functioning smoothly. While there has been surprisingly little discussion of this critical topic in the financial media, which looking at soaring stocks in China and the US is left with the false impression that all is well, one person who has continued to hammer this topic home has been Rabobank's Michael Every, who this morning once again raised the alert level over China's USD access…preparations for gradual decoupling and CNY internationalisation should begin “now”. Li adds China should “give up the illusion” of friendship and instead prepare for full-fledged conflict with the US. His specific proposal is to increase cross-border payments and clearing, local FX settlement, and maximize CNY usage in industrial supply chains. The problems in internationalizing CNY are manifold, however, which is why the USD weapon exists. The capital account would need to be opened, precipitating a collapse in CNY as money floods out. So with the natural gateway for more inbound dollars suddenly clogged up, China has to find other, just as effective ways to attract US dollars into its economy: by drawing foreign investors into its stock market. Here is Every again: To try to counter that, it’s China bubble time again – not just in property, but in stocks: the Shanghai exchange was up 4% at time of writing today, and 7% last week, as Chinese press openly talk up a new bull market --despite a flat economy-- going so far as to imply this is part of the struggle between the “world’s powers”, according to Bloomberg: with different percentages, the same dynamic is of course true in the US. Yet for both this is lethal can-kicking at best that only creates far larger problems…So why the massive intervention and ramp of stocks by Beijing officials? The answer is simple: taking a page of the Robinhood playbook, China is desperate to halt and reverse the massive equity outflows as it urgently needs the flow of US Dollars to reverse into Chinese markets, instead of away from. To do that, it needs to create an initial upward momentum in prices which halts the selling/outflows and prompts a reappraisal of Chinese asset values. Ideally, it will also capture the euphoria of US daytraders who will buy Chinese, not US stocks. Whether China succeeds is unclear, however it simply has no option and must follow through this plan until the bitter end, even if it means blowing an even bigger stock bubble than in 2015.”
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Re: China is finished... This is the End of China

Unread postby REAL Green » Tue 07 Jul 2020, 06:49:30

“America and China Are Entering the Dark Forest”
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... f=ZMFHsM5Z

“To know what the Chinese are really up to, read the futuristic novels of Liu Cixin...the book that has done the most to educate me about how China views America and the world today is, as I said, not a political text, but a work of science fiction. "The Dark Forest" was Liu Cixin’s 2008 sequel to the hugely successful "Three-Body Problem." It would be hard to overstate Liu’s influence in contemporary China: He is revered by the Shenzhen and Hangzhou tech companies, and was officially endorsed as one of the faces of 21st-century Chinese creativity by none other than … Wang Huning. "The Dark Forest," which continues the story of the invasion of Earth by the ruthless and technologically superior Trisolarans, introduces Liu’s three axioms of “cosmic sociology.” First, “Survival is the primary need of civilization.” Second, “Civilization continuously grows and expands, but the total matter in the universe remains constant.” Third, “chains of suspicion” and the risk of a “technological explosion” in another civilization mean that in space there can only be the law of the jungle. In the words of the book’s hero, Luo Ji: The universe is a dark forest. Every civilization is an armed hunter stalking through the trees like a ghost … trying to tread without sound … The hunter has to be careful, because everywhere in the forest are stealthy hunters like him. If he finds other life — another hunter, an angel or a demon, a delicate infant or a tottering old man, a fairy or a demigod — there’s only one thing he can do: open fire and eliminate them. In this forest, hell is other people … any life that exposes its own existence will be swiftly wiped out. Kissinger is often thought of (in my view, wrongly) as the supreme American exponent of Realpolitik. But this is something much harsher than realism. This is intergalactic Darwinism. Of course, you may say, it’s just sci-fi. Yes, but "The Dark Forest" gives us an insight into something we think too little about: how Xi’s China thinks. It’s not up to us whether or not we have a Cold War with China, if China has already declared Cold War on us. Not only are we already in the foothills of that new Cold War; those foothills are also impenetrably covered in a dark forest of China’s devising.”
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Re: China is finished... This is the End of China

Unread postby dolanbaker » Tue 07 Jul 2020, 07:54:18

jedrider wrote:
What China is missing is being a leader in integrated circuit technology. Too bad China put a heavy hand on Hong Kong. There are many expatriate Chinese with IC knowledge that won't go back for a reason.

Don't forget that they've been sending their top students overseas for the past couple of decades to learn all they need to know to drive their own industrial production, they don't need the best, they just need a large number of good engineers to make their products.

The quality of "Chinese Junk" has gone up exponentially in recent years, there is, of course, some real crap being produced as well for cheapness.
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Re: China is finished... This is the End of China

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 07 Jul 2020, 08:43:00

Is This The Real Reason For China's Massive Market Meltup?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/real- ... ket-meltup

Image

Now that Hong Kong is facing a creeping monetary boycott by the US, and more importantly, by the US financial system as a result of its de facto annexation by China, a pesky question has emerged: how will China procure those much needed dollars which are oh so critical to keep the Chinese financial system, all $40 trillion of it, functioning smoothly


Why? Because without the "bull market" the equity outflows would continue, and soon China will run out of dollars, an outcome which would have far more catastrophic financial, monetary and geopolitical consequences for both China and the the entire world than a 2nd (and 3rd and 4th) Covid wave, coupled with a Biden win and a permanently jammed Fed money printer.


To prevent the democracy movement from spreading onto mainland China from Hong Kong, and destroying the CCP, China has defied international law and begun a takeover of the British protectorate. This move will result in China losing access to the majority of its foreign currency inflows. A result that would literally shutdown China. China is now in a Mexican Standoff with the West. China is betting that Western governments won't dare shut off the money spigot into China. What the CCP may not have understood is that unlike the dystopian, totalitarian regime of China the decision to terminate currency inflows into China may have more to do with decisions made by Western capital markets, than Western governments. A miss interpretation of that magnitude would literally be fatal to the world's economy.
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Re: China is finished... This is the End of China

Unread postby JuanP » Tue 07 Jul 2020, 17:09:43

"US is destroying itself and world through erratic moves: Global Times editorial"
https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1193803.shtml

I agree 100% with the opinions expressed in this article. For those of you that don't know, Global Times editorials are essentially an unofficial expression of the Chinese government position on the subjects covered in them. Reading these editorials, which I have been doing almost daily for several years, is an easy way to learn where the Chinese government stands on a number of important issues. The tone of the editorials regarding the USA has changed drastically for the worse in the last couple of years. China obviously feels deeply threatened by the USA's aggressive behavior towards it. They are slowly, but surely losing any hope of having good relations with the USA and are extremely disappointed by this.
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