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Global demand for oil & gas will continue to INCREASE

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Global demand for oil & gas will continue to INCREASE

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 24 Jun 2020, 18:39:06

mousepad wrote:
AdamB wrote:No need to put "experts" in quotes, they have resumes, and you can talk to a few of them and they leave no doubt.


History is full of "experts" wrong predictions. Didn't you know that?


Of course. This is peakoil.com, many have been used at sources during all the claimed peak oils of the past 30 years.

Pick your experts carefully!!

mousepad wrote:Expert opinion of the day dismissed the possibility of gas lighting, steamships, light bulbs, telephone, gasoline engines, powered flight, radio, rockets etc etc.


And peak oil around 1900, 1919, 1943, 1950, 1970, etc etc and so on and so forth.

However, when given a choice between an informed opinion, and just some random poster who "believes" something, well, Harold Camping much?

mousepad wrote:Didn't you know that prediction especially about the future is hard, even for an "expert" :-)


Indeed. And all the peak oil suckers learned it right here at this very website!

So, are you a firm believer in faith based knowledge, rather than informed knowledge? And how much informed works for you...keeping in mind the Dunning-Kruger effect of course.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Global demand for oil & gas will continue to INCREASE

Unread postby mousepad » Thu 25 Jun 2020, 13:55:43

AdamB wrote:
So, are you a firm believer in faith based knowledge, rather than informed knowledge? And how much informed works for you...keeping in mind the Dunning-Kruger effect of course.


I learned my lesson or 2 about predicting the future. Fully acknowledging that I don't know jack shit how the future's going to look like. But I also understanding that the "experts" know as little as I do (about predicting the future).
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Re: Global demand for oil & gas will continue to INCREASE

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 25 Jun 2020, 18:08:31

mousepad wrote:
AdamB wrote:
So, are you a firm believer in faith based knowledge, rather than informed knowledge? And how much informed works for you...keeping in mind the Dunning-Kruger effect of course.


I learned my lesson or 2 about predicting the future.


As did I. This place is a wonderful location to understand that, go back and peruse the archives, you wouldn't believe what some of the current denizens were saying back then...and even more unbelievably...after reality showed them wrong....they kept saying the same things!!

mousepad wrote:
Fully acknowledging that I don't know jack shit how the future's going to look like. But I also understanding that the "experts" know as little as I do (about predicting the future).


There are no facts about the future.

But some of us are better guessers than others. :-D
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Global demand for oil & gas will continue to INCREASE

Unread postby ralfy » Fri 26 Jun 2020, 20:48:34

Ibon wrote:
Fossil fuels will not be the constraint required to hold consumption growth in check as many of us anticipated and hoped for as far back as a quarter century ago. The constraints will lie elsewhere.


The reason why 71 pct of the current global population lack one or more basic needs is a lack of oil, among others.
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Re: Global demand for oil & gas will continue to INCREASE

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 26 Jun 2020, 23:08:28

ralfy wrote:
Ibon wrote:
Fossil fuels will not be the constraint required to hold consumption growth in check as many of us anticipated and hoped for as far back as a quarter century ago. The constraints will lie elsewhere.


The reason why 71 pct of the current global population lack one or more basic needs is a lack of oil, among others.


Lack of coherent political leadership, lack of coal, lack of natural gas, lack of american exceptionalism, lack of health care, lack of education, and so on and so forth.

Too much oil on your LATOCian polluted brain ralfy.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Global demand for oil & gas will continue to INCREASE

Unread postby Tom Kirkman » Sat 27 Jun 2020, 08:04:52

GHung wrote:Tom Kirkman sounds terrified his world is changing.
All in on an oil-based future, Tom? Totally addicted to your 19th century energy sources?


Nah, I just amuse myself with poking fun at Chicken Little panic-mongers. The world is not ending. Although the far left seems to want to burn it down.


Newsweek rejoices at the oil price crash, and urges the U.S. government to take a stake in faltering oil companies in order to shut down U.S. oil production and force "renewable" energy.

And then urges Democrats to tie the oil price crash to Covid-19 and "Social Justice" and "Climate Emergency".

Insanity.

=====================

Democrats Need Both Climate and Jobs at the Center of COVID-19 Recovery
https://www.newsweek.com/green-deal-jobs-climate-coronavirus-democrats-1513740

With oil prices collapsing, hundreds of upstream oil and gas companies are expecting to face bankruptcy in the next two years. As in the auto bailout, the U.S. federal government could take an ownership stake in these companies and mandate a reorganization away from fossil fuel production and toward renewable energy. ...

... it is generally understood that plagues drive change. The immediate priority now is ensuring that Democrats hardwire climate concerns and social justice into their COVID-19 recovery plans. As we seek to rebuild, what comes next should be more resilient - not just to the spread of pandemics, but to the challenges posed by the climate emergency.
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Re: Global demand for oil & gas will continue to INCREASE

Unread postby Tom Kirkman » Sat 27 Jun 2020, 08:13:44

asg70 wrote:
Tom Kirkman wrote:Orwellian MSM and politicians insist that up is down, feelings trump facts, war is peace, and rainbow unicorn farts (non-methane flowery smelling farts) will magically replace *eeeeeeevil* oil and gas and LNG. Poppycock and balderdash.


Ooh, goody. Another new poster with a strong axe to grind.



Happy to oblige : )

Far left Democrat Governors + far left environmentalists blocking natural gas pipelines = energy disaster for residents.

Democrat Governors blocking natural gas pipelines to provide energy to residents is about as stupid as the 5 Democrat Governors who ordered elderly Covid-19 patients in hospitals to be sent to nursing homes, to infect others in nursing homes and to die. Insanity. Virtue signalling.

=================================

As Natural Gas Demand Increases, Pipeline Approvals Remain Stagnant
https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/fossil-fuels/gas-and-oil/as-natural-gas-demand-increases-pipeline-approvals-remain-stagnant/

Natural gas demand is increasing and its supply is being held captive because environmentalists and politicians do not want to allow their residents to have access to low cost and plentiful natural gas supposedly due to climate change.

As a result, natural gas is being shipped at greater cost by truck and rail in liquefied form to markets in New England where there is insufficient pipeline capacity, causing increased emissions as well as increased public safety issues.


=======================================

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Re: Global demand for oil & gas will continue to INCREASE

Unread postby Tom Kirkman » Sat 27 Jun 2020, 08:20:17

Plain English overview of the world's top oil producers and consumers, based on the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2020.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2020/06/26/the-worlds-top-10-oil-producers-and-oil-consumers/#76db30332303

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... U.S. oil production grew by 1.2 million BPD in 2019, taking over the top spot from Russia. Cumulatively the Big Three — U.S., Russia, and Saudi Arabia — produced 40.5% of the world’s oil. OPEC countries produced 38.2% of the world’s oil.

However, OPEC possesses 70% of the world’s proved crude oil reserves. Venezuela still claims the title for the highest level of reserves — 304 billion barrels — followed by Saudi Arabia with 298 billion barrels. ...
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Re: Global demand for oil & gas will continue to INCREASE

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 27 Jun 2020, 11:12:06

Tom Kirkman wrote:
GHung wrote:Tom Kirkman sounds terrified his world is changing.
All in on an oil-based future, Tom? Totally addicted to your 19th century energy sources?


Nah, I just amuse myself with poking fun at Chicken Little panic-mongers.


Well, you are in the right place for that...only about 10 years late.

Nowadays the doom congregation has shifted over to climate change, stock markets crash, odds and ends like that. Throw in some net energy half wits, and you've got most of the modern congregation covered.

You'll attract attention bashing the Democan brand of the American oligarch system though.

But as far as the chicken little component, a local poster figured that out LONG ago.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Global demand for oil & gas will continue to INCREASE

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 28 Jun 2020, 11:53:04

AdamB wrote:
mousepad wrote:
AdamB wrote:
So, are you a firm believer in faith based knowledge, rather than informed knowledge? And how much informed works for you...keeping in mind the Dunning-Kruger effect of course.


I learned my lesson or 2 about predicting the future.


As did I. This place is a wonderful location to understand that, go back and peruse the archives, you wouldn't believe what some of the current denizens were saying back then...and even more unbelievably...after reality showed them wrong....they kept saying the same things!!

mousepad wrote:
Fully acknowledging that I don't know jack shit how the future's going to look like. But I also understanding that the "experts" know as little as I do (about predicting the future).


There are no facts about the future.

But some of us are better guessers than others. :-D

Yup. It's one thing to, say, look at math and trends and human nature and to guess that, generally, barring a MAJOR event (like a giant meteor hitting the earth), population will continue to trend up over the next few decades. (Harder to see beyond that, given the likely progress of AGW, etc).

It's quite another to say, endlessly, that oil supplies are about to crash within a year, the global economy will crash within a year, etc. EVERY year, for decades, and act like people should believe you THIS time. Especially when the context of "crash" is in the realm of system-shattering impact.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Global demand for oil & gas will continue to INCREASE

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 28 Jun 2020, 15:45:22

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
AdamB wrote:There are no facts about the future.

But some of us are better guessers than others. :-D

Yup. It's one thing to, say, look at math and trends and human nature and to guess that, generally, barring a MAJOR event (like a giant meteor hitting the earth), population will continue to trend up over the next few decades. (Harder to see beyond that, given the likely progress of AGW, etc).

It's quite another to say, endlessly, that oil supplies are about to crash within a year, the global economy will crash within a year, etc. EVERY year, for decades, and act like people should believe you THIS time. Especially when the context of "crash" is in the realm of system-shattering impact.


Armie and Shorty still doing their vaudeville routine I take it?

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Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Global demand for oil & gas will continue to INCREASE

Unread postby mousepad » Mon 29 Jun 2020, 06:29:43

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Yup. It's one thing to, say, look at math and barring a MAJOR event

Yes, but that's not really prediction. It's simple extrapolation of previous trends. It's not more difficult than predicting tomorrow will be the same as today. It's pretty boring.

It gets hard when there's no clear previous trend. Like stock market, where "experts" are no better than me flipping a coin. Or predicting pivotal events. That's the interesting stuff, but it's also practically non-predictable whether by me nor by "experts".
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Re: Global demand for oil & gas will continue to INCREASE

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 29 Jun 2020, 07:54:34

It gets hard when there's no clear previous trend.


There is really no question as to which way this is going; the only question is how fast is it getting there? The world has about 170 Gb of petroleum remaining to extract before it becomes nothing more than a boutique product. Whether, or not modern civilization will hang together long enough to produce it depends on how fast the BLOB can destroy society’s cohesiveness. The BLOB being the social paralysis, and psychosis that is now spreading around the world. It appears to be breaking civilization down at an accelerating rate. Because of that factor the rate that the feed back loop operates between petroleum production, and the world's economic disintegration is becoming more difficult to evaluate. 50 million people, in just the US, already out of work is probably the best indication of how long the system can continue to function. If the present situation, and response is any indication, what remains will get burned down when the government checks stop coming.

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Re: Global demand for oil & gas will continue to INCREASE

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 29 Jun 2020, 17:01:09

shortonoil wrote:
It gets hard when there's no clear previous trend.


The world has about 170 Gb of petroleum remaining to extract before it becomes nothing more than a boutique product.


Says who welsher? Wasn't there some idiot paper online once that said this, laughed out of technical review, that the author then had to scrub the internet to get rid of because it is one thing for technical experts to laugh your credibility out of a review process, and quite another to have the entire world yuck it up over it?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Global demand for oil & gas will continue to INCREASE

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 29 Jun 2020, 18:43:38

mousepad wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:Yup. It's one thing to, say, look at math and barring a MAJOR event

Yes, but that's not really prediction. It's simple extrapolation of previous trends. It's not more difficult than predicting tomorrow will be the same as today. It's pretty boring.

It gets hard when there's no clear previous trend. Like stock market, where "experts" are no better than me flipping a coin. Or predicting pivotal events. That's the interesting stuff, but it's also practically non-predictable whether by me nor by "experts".

Sure. Let's pretend that, for example, oil production and GDP over the last 50 years had no correlation. Let's pretend also that, say, the US stock market, gaining about 9% before inflation since 1929 (when good records started being kept) is not a trend.

https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

LOL
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Global demand for oil & gas will continue to INCREASE

Unread postby mousepad » Tue 30 Jun 2020, 06:44:09

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Sure. Let's pretend that, for example, oil production and GDP over the last 50 years had no correlation. Let's pretend also that, say, the US stock market, gaining about 9% before inflation since 1929 (when good records started being kept) is not a trend.
LOL


What's your point? Why do we need to pretend?
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Re: Global demand for oil & gas will continue to INCREASE

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 30 Jun 2020, 07:45:58

The EIA appears to have taken down one of its most important, and informative pages for analysts, and investors. Can't find any explanation, although some, but not all of that pages data can be found in other tables. We are now left to guess about what is happening in much of the US oil industry.

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_snd ... _w.htmcccz
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Re: Global demand for oil & gas will continue to INCREASE

Unread postby jedrider » Tue 30 Jun 2020, 12:48:11

So, there are still some of you that don't accept the concepts of:

Peak Oil

Peak Climate

Peak Financing

?? Welcome to humanity! ??
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Re: Global demand for oil & gas will continue to INCREASE

Unread postby jedrider » Tue 30 Jun 2020, 12:54:37

Got to go to these sets of quotes whenever I'm dismayed like this:

Albert Einstein's Best Quotes
The only thing that interferes with my learning is my education. Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe. I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.


That does a disservice to my education, though, which was good considering how poor a student I was. I don't feel I was lied to very often, although they did leave out a hell of a lot!
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Re: Global demand for oil & gas will continue to INCREASE

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 02 Jul 2020, 20:31:26

shortonoil wrote:The EIA appears to have taken down one of its most important, and informative pages for analysts, and investors. Can't find any explanation, although some, but not all of that pages data can be found in other tables. We are now left to guess about what is happening in much of the US oil industry.

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_snd ... _w.htmcccz


And have you emailed any of the many names and emails they list on the site, of experts in the various specialties, as to why it no longer exists? Or is answering easy questions like this beyond your capabilities?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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