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Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 28 Jun 2020, 19:59:15

CDC indicates COVID infection-fatality rate less than 1%


Director's new estimate confirms criticism of WHO's alarming claim

The Centers for Disease Control estimates the coronavirus may have infected 10 times more Americans than known, nearly 24 million, meaning the infection fatality rate is no higher than one half of 1%.

If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%.

https://www.wnd.com/2020/06/cdc-indicat ... te-less-1/



And then there’s this


Nursing Homes Account For 11% Of COVID-19 Cases, 43% Of Deaths In US
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Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Unread postby JuanP » Mon 29 Jun 2020, 06:25:42

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Or another approach would be to give it to one or more local charities you've personally vetted, know who does the books, and believe in the cause(s) they support.

But yeah, I get it re how the US govt. spends it. One of several reasons I chose to retire early in 2007 was I did NOT want to help fund the US military madness in the middle east ANY MORE, by the feds taking a substantial chunk of my hard-earned salary. They still tax me, but a hell of a lot less.


We do support two local charities that we've been working with for a long time.

One of them distributes fresh, local produce to low income families in Miami and we support them by donating veggies from our farm and, occasionally, money, when they are going through a rough spot. We've known the CEO/founder for around five years, vetted their finances, and we volunteer with them, too.

The other we've been working with for around 7 years. It sends veggies seeds to Haiti and has people on the ground there to teach the people that receive the seeds how to grow them. We track the planting and harvesting using apps to make sure they succeed. All the seeds are heirloom varieties and the recipients learn how to save seeds, too. They also do local environmental restoration in the Everglades and coastal habitats. We know them personally, checked them out financially, and volunteer with them, too. I helped them design and build their nurseries, including all the systems, and I also did the original plant and seed selection and sourcing for the seeds they send to Haiti, and wrote a leaflet with instructions on how to grow the different crops, which was translated to Creole by another volunteer. We also put them in contact with their current biggest donor, a woman who matches every dollar they get in donations with a dollar of her own and volunteers with them, too, helping out with the finances.

I also retired early, and my wife and I reduced our income before that, too, because we didn't want to pay too much in taxes and have the US government spend 50 cents of every dollar we gave them interfering, attacking, invading, and destroying foreign countries. The turning point for us was the Iraq war and the final blow was Ukraine, but it should have been the destruction of Yugoslavia. The funny thing is that we work more and harder now than ever before, just not for the money.
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Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Unread postby mousepad » Mon 29 Jun 2020, 06:47:22

JuanP wrote:by donating veggies from our farm

Nearest farm land is around Belle Glade. You've got a long commute from Miami beach.
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Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Unread postby JuanP » Mon 29 Jun 2020, 06:54:32

VT, I totally get your point about transitioning in a planned, orderly manner, and I completely agree. I don't expect that to happen in a top down way, though. We shouldn't expect much help from national or international institutions, governments included. I have decided to focus my efforts on a bottom down approach, particularly focused on teaching people how to grow food locally, reduce their consumption, increase their resilience, and build communities around these ideas.

A typical example is what I've been doing this last week. I designed and helped build a 54 square feet raised bed in a very high traffic avenue that has tens of thousands of cars driving by every day in a low income neighborhood. It is open to the street and highly visible. It was built using reused, recycled, and repurposed materials donated, bartered, or gifted by ourselves and other people in the community. The total cost was $0. I led a team of volunteers in the design and construction process. It has already inspired three of the people involved to build a raised bed in their homes, and I hope it will inspire many more since it isn't even finished yet. People walk and drive by all the time when we are there and stop to ask about it.
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Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Unread postby JuanP » Mon 29 Jun 2020, 07:01:05

mousepad wrote:
JuanP wrote:by donating veggies from our farm

Nearest farm land is around Belle Glade. You've got a long commute from Miami beach.


We farm on three empty, contiguous one acre plots in NE Miami-Dade County. It is an urban farm. We don't own the land. I can't disclose the location online for privacy and security reasons. My commute is around 20-30 minutes, depending on traffic. We farm in a very intensive way, very similar to what Curtis Stone "The Urban Farmer" does. If you want to see a satellite image of the farm PM me with your phone or email address and I will send you the address so you can look it up on Google maps. The property owner doesn't want us posting the location online, it is part of our agreement.
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Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Unread postby REAL Green » Mon 29 Jun 2020, 10:42:49

“Forget The V, W, Or L Recovery: Focus On N-P-B”
http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/20 ... n-p-b.html

“The fantasy of a V-shaped recovery has evaporated, and expectations for a W or L-shaped recovery are increasingly untenable. So forget V, W and L; the letters that will shape the future are N, P, B: there is No Plan B. All the hopes for a recovery were based on a quick return to the economy that existed in late 2019. All the bailouts and stimulus programs were based on this single goal: a quick return to The Old Normal. This was Plan A. For all the reasons that have been laid out here over the past six months, The Old Normal is gone for good. The Old Normal economy was too precarious, too brittle and too fragile to survive the toppling of any domino, as the only Plan A "solution" was to push destabilizing extremes to new extremes, i.e. doing more of what failed spectacularly and increasing the fragility of precariously fragile systems. A short list of what's been irreversibly destabilized due to a systemic collapse in demand, exponential rise in risk and uncertainty, dependence on over-indebtedness, imploding global supply chains, structural decline in income and employment and the rapid emergence of new business models that obsolete high-cost, inefficient, sclerotic, bureaucratic monopolies include:
1. Healthcare 2. Higher education 3. Commercial real estate 4. Tourism 5. Restaurants / live entertainment 6. Business travel / conferences 7. Office parks, commutes, urban work forces, etc. 8. High-cost urban lifestyles
We could also include entire sectors that have yet to recognize the tsunami that's about to wash away their Old Normal: marketing, finance, local governance, etc. The problem is there's no Plan B for anything in the U.S. economy. There is only Plan A, a return to 2019 / The Old Normal. If that's no longer possible, there is literally nothing left on the policy / response plate. What nobody dares even ask is: what businesses and industries will still be financially viable running at 50% capacity? How many cafes, restaurants, resorts, airlines, etc. will turn a profit operating at 50% capacity? How many can not just survive half of the seats being empty, but turn a profit? The short answer is very few, because the operating costs of most businesses are unbearably high. The likely survivors are those enterprises with low fixed costs and low operating costs-- enterprises that own their facilities in locales with low property taxes, and enterprises that can be run by the owners without employees. How many enterprises have these kinds of barebones cost structures? Very few. For most enterprises, the only way they can lower their costs to a level that enables their survival is to cut costs by half: cut rent, mortgages, debt service, property taxes, fees, utilities, insurance, etc. by half. That would mean everyone down the line would have to survive on half of their previous revenues: landlords, banks, local municipalities, service providers, and so on. How many of these institutions and enterprises could survive on 50% of their previous revenues? The only realistic Plan B is a fundamental, permanent re-ordering of the cost structure of the entire U.S. economy. Call it DeGrowth, or creative destruction, or disruption if you prefer, but whatever name we use, the reality will be extraordinarily disruptive, uncertain, risky and unpredictable. As many of us has explained over the years, unstable, brittle, fragile systems characterized by soaring inequality, pay-to-play political corruption and dependence on debt, leverage and speculative bubbles were unsustainable. Plan B can be a chaotic mess of denial and failed half-measures that only make all the problems worse, or it can be a positive transformation that results in a society that does more with less. The choice is ours.”
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Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 29 Jun 2020, 11:08:48

Real Green there is a lot of truth in your linked article above. Local property taxes are based on the sale value of a property. Obviously a property that housed a now failed of highly restricted business is now worth a lot less. This is especially acute in restaurants that paid both property taxes through their rent and meals tax on every french fry or glass of beer sold. Those piles of rotting potatoes in Idaho represent not just a loss for the farmers and the restaurants but also for the landlords and the government living off the taxes not to forget all the now unemployed employees. In my own town I expect the owners of every closed business to appeal their tax appraisals and for the most part win on the merits of their case. This means town government which my wife is an officer of, and myself to a much smaller extent, will have to learn to get by an a lot less revenue. Already the school budget has been voted down soundly twice as the administration seems totally unable to grasp the new reality and make the necessary cuts to staff that a drastically reduced tax base requires.
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Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 29 Jun 2020, 11:32:28

REAL Green wrote: The likely survivors are those enterprises with low fixed costs and low operating costs-- enterprises that own their facilities in locales with low property taxes, and enterprises that can be run by the owners without employees. How many enterprises have these kinds of barebones cost structures? ”


That pretty much describes our situation here. Diversifying into agriculture and accounting for a steep drop in tourism means we are headed for quite austere times. It wont break us but it will greatly change our plans and investments going forward.

I agree that this is happening across a huge swath of the market effecting business, personal and public finances.

I find it very interesting how this "new reality" contains many of the elements and conditions we have always discussed as being necessary in a "degrowth" "powered down" or more "sustainable" model for society.

We are still in the process of adapting. Tourism was quite lucrative and we were able to move revenue generated from tourism into our coffee production. Without that tourism dollar surplus the economics have now become constrained to stay within the operating expenses.

I had the chasis of our pick up in the shop being welded for the 3rd time last week. The mechanic charged me $47 dollars for the welding job. The starter motor went out the week before. Rebuilding the starter replacing the brushes was $ 35 dollars. The labor costs here for mechanical work is so much lower than in the USA. Panama uses the US$ as their currency but a single dollar goes a hell of a lot further than in the USA. I think that is a hint how far the US has to fall to reset their economy.
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Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 29 Jun 2020, 11:39:35

Ibon,
If one were to design a way to slow the economy to give nature a bit of a breather this would not be a bad way to do it.

We are seeing some degrowth, and perhaps more to come.

Guess that’s the silver lining to the virus.

It’s still annoying.
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Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 29 Jun 2020, 11:54:22

Newfie wrote:Ibon,
If one were to design a way to slow the economy to give nature a bit of a breather this would not be a bad way to do it.

We are seeing some degrowth, and perhaps more to come.

Guess that’s the silver lining to the virus.

It’s still annoying.


It's annoying and very deflationary on the economy. And it can spiral down to some not yet known new equilibrium.
Wages drop, demand drops, Productions drops, investments drop, tax revenue drops, public spending drops, employees laid off, etc etc,

For those managing their wealth this is an incredibly important time to have cash on hand.

In past times of deep deflation the wealthy who had cash could pick up land, properties, goods and services for pennies on the dollar.

We are heading there for an extended period of time. Deflation as I see it.

And yet the silver linings are indisputable as well. This weekend we gave away cheese, coffee and honey to our neighbors, they brought us onions, potatoes, broccoli, their know how teaching us to make cheese. It felt like agrarian times of the past when no money was exchanged but yet everyone contributed and shared. There was a tremendous sense of appreciating each others company.

There is always greater appreciation of the basics when times are tenuous.
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Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Unread postby REAL Green » Mon 29 Jun 2020, 12:07:47

Newfie wrote:Ibon, If one were to design a way to slow the economy to give nature a bit of a breather this would not be a bad way to do it. We are seeing some degrowth, and perhaps more to come.


I am somebody that has been watching and studying this for years now. I do it everyday so this is a way of life for me. That way of life is the study of decline which is a systematic degrowth over time. It can be a decay but also involve constructive degrowth that allows new and better growth to fill in the niches destroyed. Decline and degrowth is not all decay it is disturbance and succession allowing regrowth. What has fascinated me over the past decade has been the stability of the previous order pre-Covid. The central banks had the system steered. There were many losers and less winners but the system held. There were some trickle down benefits.

Now, we see that order being ripped apart. This is not only economically but now politically and socially. The fascinating aspects of this post-Covid is the process has a delay. We are seeing a resistance to change or an inertia. This has created a false sense of normality that I personally find as deceptive. This is more than just the equity markets that stay elevated. This is with people in general. In fact I need to pinch myself to see if I am still here or not in the world of impending and actual decline. I may be wrong but this normality does not add up so I see a process that may include a future shock ahead. How far ahead I don't know. It may possibly come after the elections or right around the election? It seems elections have a way of delaying change and then amplifying them. I see thresholds as near and their break point deteriorating.

We also have the second virus wave flaring up. The international situation continues to be in flux with devisive current events. I am now building a shop that I put on hold in March. My feeling is get it done while I can. I have money in the bank that could become debased. I will still have money in the bank but I want some of what I have there now in a physical asset that supports my operation. These are very strange times exciting but also foreboding especially for someone like me getting older.
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Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 30 Jun 2020, 21:15:09

The deaths are falling because we're running out of old folks and cancer patients that can die of a cold.

You increase testing you find more positives.

Those who will die have mostly already done so.....


0.4 death rate.
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Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 30 Jun 2020, 23:19:32

"Red Flags Galore": Companies Sold A Mindblowing $113 Billion In Stock In Q2 | Zero Hedge


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Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Unread postby JuanP » Wed 01 Jul 2020, 06:38:52

"'For the first time in living memory': IMF expects Asian economy to shrink as it downgrades forecast"
https://www.rt.com/business/493431-imf- ... downgrade/
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Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 01 Jul 2020, 11:38:52

Armageddon wrote:The deaths are falling because we're running out of old folks and cancer patients that can die of a cold.

You increase testing you find more positives.

Those who will die have mostly already done so.....

As usual, you're making a moronic claim. As usual, NO data to back that nonsense up, since you can't.

And it's not even remotely difficult to see it if you actually think for 15 seconds instead of just blabbering BS.

There are over 50 MILLION US SS recipients over the age of 65.

https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/quickfa ... _snapshot/

The "old" high risk people are generally defined as those over 60, so the US has a LOT more than 50 million old, high risk people. And of course, add all the immunocompromised people in the US under age 65 to that (not just cancer patients) and that's a hell of a lot MORE people in the at high risk group. Also, obese, morbidly obese, hypertensive, diabetic, prediabetic are thought to be SIGNIFICANT co-morbidities. Add all those folks up in the US, and that outnumbers the over-65 crowd. Not as much total risk as all the old people, but VERY SIGNIFICANT re number at high risk, nonetheless.

Now, we've had roughly 2.7 million (rounding up) reported cases in the US. Even if you assume we've had TEN times that number due to unreported cases, a hell of a lot of those are young people partying, protesting, not wearing masks, hanging out at bars, beaches, political rallies, and on and on. (Places old, sickly, careful people tend to avoid like the plague with the risk of COVID-19 a reality).

A lot of young people get sick too, largely because they are often not as careful as the average older / sicker person, concerned about their health. Not as likely to die, but certainly likely to get sick with careless behavior.

Also, the death rate is NOT falling globally, it is rising. It is generally following the case direction, but it lags by quite a bit as actual experts keep pointing out.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... -maps.html

The death rate likely will not rise as fast as the US case curve generally, since they're learning more about the virus, about treatment, etc. Not because we're "running out of old people".

...

And even if 20% of the old / sick have had it (which is a stretch, given the way younger folks behave re the virus risk), that's a MASSIVE number of older / sick people that can still be exposed. Call it 55ish million, round numbers, since you seem to REALLY suck at math.

Oh, and why in the world would the US curve look so wildly different than the rest of the world, re the death curve? It's not like there is a big lack of old and sick people in much of the world where the virus is surging.

Various experts have stated they expect the US death rate to rise within a few weeks, given the trajectory of the US case rate, citing the significant delay in deaths vs. hospitalizations, much less case onset.

Why bother to even post things that the average eight year old could refute with a little effort?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 01 Jul 2020, 11:53:22

New York City halts plan to reopen indoor dining as coronavirus surges across US


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/coronav ... -week.html

Prior to this, there had been some outside activity re serving food at bars and restaurants in NYC, from what I've read.

Having one large, well documented place carefully opening up and being able to see the impact of an item like firing up indoor dining would have been an interesting experiment, re helping define what activities are moderately safe vs. moderately (or more) dangerous.

Given the fact that cold weather will be returning to the northern hemisphere October-ish, which won't be at all good for outdoor dining, things like this would be very good to have solid data on before then, IMO.

With all the places globally opening up various ways, I hope more meaningful data can be gleaned over time re such activities, but I think it's so much chaos vs. careful experiments that it may be too hard to make much sense of the data. (If you change 5 things at once, which one(s) is/are the likely culprit? Or which other variables are a big impact, since it's not a controlled experiment by any means?)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 01 Jul 2020, 12:27:50

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:The deaths are falling because we're running out of old folks and cancer patients that can die of a cold.

You increase testing you find more positives.

Those who will die have mostly already done so.....

As usual, you're making a moronic claim. As usual, NO data to back that nonsense up, since you can't.

And it's not even remotely difficult to see it if you actually think for 15 seconds instead of just blabbering BS.

There are over 50 MILLION US SS recipients over the age of 65.

https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/quickfa ... _snapshot/

The "old" high risk people are generally defined as those over 60, so the US has a LOT more than 50 million old, high risk people. And of course, add all the immunocompromised people in the US under age 65 to that (not just cancer patients) and that's a hell of a lot MORE people in the at high risk group. Also, obese, morbidly obese, hypertensive, diabetic, prediabetic are thought to be SIGNIFICANT co-morbidities. Add all those folks up in the US, and that outnumbers the over-65 crowd. Not as much total risk as all the old people, but VERY SIGNIFICANT re number at high risk, nonetheless.

Now, we've had roughly 2.7 million (rounding up) reported cases in the US. Even if you assume we've had TEN times that number due to unreported cases, a hell of a lot of those are young people partying, protesting, not wearing masks, hanging out at bars, beaches, political rallies, and on and on. (Places old, sickly, careful people tend to avoid like the plague with the risk of COVID-19 a reality).

A lot of young people get sick too, largely because they are often not as careful as the average older / sicker person, concerned about their health. Not as likely to die, but certainly likely to get sick with careless behavior.

Also, the death rate is NOT falling globally, it is rising. It is generally following the case direction, but it lags by quite a bit as actual experts keep pointing out.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... -maps.html

The death rate likely will not rise as fast as the US case curve generally, since they're learning more about the virus, about treatment, etc. Not because we're "running out of old people".

...

And even if 20% of the old / sick have had it (which is a stretch, given the way younger folks behave re the virus risk), that's a MASSIVE number of older / sick people that can still be exposed. Call it 55ish million, round numbers, since you seem to REALLY suck at math.

Oh, and why in the world would the US curve look so wildly different than the rest of the world, re the death curve? It's not like there is a big lack of old and sick people in much of the world where the virus is surging.

Various experts have stated they expect the US death rate to rise within a few weeks, given the trajectory of the US case rate, citing the significant delay in deaths vs. hospitalizations, much less case onset.

Why bother to even post things that the average eight year old could refute with a little effort?




That’s too stupid to even respond to.
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Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 01 Jul 2020, 12:37:04

Armageddon wrote:That’s too stupid to even respond to.

Yup, because you have ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to say credibly.

Welcome to my ignore box. With a signal to noise ratio of essentially zero, your value is negative, re wasting time reading your nonsense.



Congrats. /s
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 01 Jul 2020, 12:37:36

We're far enough along in this to already start building a warchest of public figures from Trump on the way down who have consistently downplayed COVID and made Pollyanna predictions only to look like idiots once the data streamed in. Nevertheless you still have people here doubling down on this marginalizing language when the country is being consumed by a second wave that is burning its way north up from the willfully ignorant and selfish red-states.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 01 Jul 2020, 12:47:22

Arizona reports record spike in new coronavirus cases and deaths ahead of Pence’s visit


The Arizona Department of Health reported nearly 4,900 new coronavirus cases and 88 new deaths on Wednesday, a record single-day jump in both grim markers ahead of Vice President Mike Pence’s visit to the state later in the day.


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/arizona ... visit.html

Well, we may be beginning to see the trend re the rise in death rates that the rise in case rates and hospitalizations will inevitably lead to -- per the experts.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... cases.html

88 deaths is a new record in AZ by a significant margin. As the cases continue to be rising exponentially there.

Cases are rising as a trend in 39 US states now. And the number of states where the trend is getting seriously exponential is growing.

If they can't open schools in the places it's bad, that really seriously limits the economic recovery.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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