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Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 23 May 2020, 08:26:56

I get an annual physical and see a dermatologist to get checked for skin cancer due my history.

The advice I’ve gotten from physicians over the years has been misguided and I’ve shied away from anything that would leave a mark. I try to use my best judgement and retain my right of refusal.

There are times you really do need them. I badly cut my hand one night and was glad to have a hospital handy. So there is that.

I tend to think your assessment is correct. We grossly over prescribe. On the other hand it’s what folks want.
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Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 23 May 2020, 08:35:46

A potlatch can be used various ways. It was reported that after the plagues the remaining Indians held Potlatches to dispose to the excess goods. Grave goods may also go in this direction. “If I have all this great wealth it is because someone else suffered (survivors guilt) so these goods are tarnished and destroy my soul.”

The Whites outlawed the potlatch.

I think there is a complicated psychology, not always consistent, that we struggle to understand. But it strikes me there is some similarity to what we do. It is easy to describe our culture as “burning up the great resources left to us.” A monstrous potlatch.

A potlatch involves giving away or destroying wealth or valuable items in order to demonstrate a leader's wealth and power. Potlatches are also focused on the reaffirmation of family, clan, and international connections, and the human connection with the supernatural world. Legal proceedings may include namings, business negotiations and transactions, marriages, divorces, deaths, end of mourning, transfers of physical and especially intellectual property, adoptions, initiations, treaty proceedings, monument commemorations, and honouring of the ancestors. Potlatch also serves as a strict resource management regime, where coastal peoples discuss, negotiate, and affirm rights to and uses of specific territories and resources.[6] [7] [8] Potlatches often involve music, dancing, singing, storytelling, speechmaking, and often joking and games. The honouring of the supernatural and the recitation of oral histories are a central part of many potlatches.

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Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 23 May 2020, 08:42:52

Newfie wrote:A potlatch can be used various ways. It was reported that after the plagues the remaining Indians held Potlatches to dispose to the excess goods. Grave goods may also go in this direction. “If I have all this great wealth it is because someone else suffered (survivors guilt) so these goods are tarnished and destroy my soul.”

The Whites outlawed the potlatch.

I think there is a complicated psychology, not always consistent, that we struggle to understand. But it strikes me there is some similarity to what we do. It is easy to describe our culture as “burning up the great resources left to us.” A monstrous potlatch.

A potlatch involves giving away or destroying wealth or valuable items in order to demonstrate a leader's wealth and power. Potlatches are also focused on the reaffirmation of family, clan, and international connections, and the human connection with the supernatural world. Legal proceedings may include namings, business negotiations and transactions, marriages, divorces, deaths, end of mourning, transfers of physical and especially intellectual property, adoptions, initiations, treaty proceedings, monument commemorations, and honouring of the ancestors. Potlatch also serves as a strict resource management regime, where coastal peoples discuss, negotiate, and affirm rights to and uses of specific territories and resources.[6] [7] [8] Potlatches often involve music, dancing, singing, storytelling, speechmaking, and often joking and games. The honouring of the supernatural and the recitation of oral histories are a central part of many potlatches.



There is something related to this still active here in the culture of the remote mountains. I have this contracted worker who has his own small homestead in a very remote area and he comes to work for me now and then. He never saves any money, he puts the little he makes to work, if I pay him $ 300 he buys a calf and puts it to pasture. He has lived his whole life as a minimalist. Sometimes when he is down to his past penny he will come by and ask me for a loan of $ 20 which through the years he always pays back with work. When he is broke and has not even a penny in his pocket he tells me in spanish "Estoy limpio". Which is a slang term here for saying your out of money. The translation is "I am clean"

I find that revealing and somehow related to your post.
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Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 23 May 2020, 08:53:26

Ibon, I believe we have very little psychological understanding of how we work. And even less ability to change it.

In many ways we are similar to a meteor, a force we can not control that has great potential for change.

That is a perspective I try to hold onto to manage guilt.
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Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 23 May 2020, 11:01:47

Newfie wrote:The advice I’ve gotten from physicians over the years has been misguided


In what way?

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 23 May 2020, 12:15:17

Back to opening up the economy. We seem to be heading there in the US with all its messy inconsistencies.
There is a huge failure at the moment in the states that are opening regarding the essential workers. This failure is unforgivable. If I was
at the federal level managing policy here is what I would do.


1) Increase minimum wage to $ 15/ hour
2) All essential workers in retail and nursing homes, any worker whose job requires exposure to many people would receive a "risk premium" for the duration of the pandemic. For minimum wage workers it would be double their wage up to $ 30 / hour. 50% of this increase would be paid by the employer. Walmart would
write letters to their shareholders stating that the bonus increase was the civic duty of all share holders to sacrifice a bit of profit during the pandemic.
The other 50% of the "risk premium" bonus would be paid by the federal government as part of pandemic aid funds.
3) All essential workers who happen to get infected with Covid19 have full medical health coverage until cured. This would fall under Medicaid.
3) Wealthy Americans above a certain income threshold would pay an additional 10% income tax as a special "civic duty" tax for the duration of the
pandemic to help the federal government finance the pandemic aid.
4) Citizens who fall into the high risk group of getting serious symptoms if they catch Covid19 would receive a certificate by a medical
professional that would enable them to receive unemployment or a UBI income for the duration of the pandemic. It is not fair to subject the vulnerable to go to work
when they have no other way to support themselves so this support would be critical to opening up the economy.
5) Full speed ahead opening the economy.

In the above scenario society provides the protection to the vulnerable population at the same time as the economy is opened to preserve resiliency

Let's do it. We have done our duty to the vulnerable. WE have put Americans back to work.

Why not?
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Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 23 May 2020, 15:33:29

asg70 wrote:
Newfie wrote:The advice I’ve gotten from physicians over the years has been misguided


In what way?


ASG,

As a Father or four and an only son I’ve had far too many dealings with hospitals. Luckily my personal events have been relatively trivial; declining medicine and operations that were not needed.

I’ll give you one story of many. A baby boy about a month premature. Good Apgar scores but having some difficulty breathing. But clearly he is getting worse not better. A Dr. friend walks into the room, closes the door and says “Get that kid to a neonatal unit, he won’t last here.” Saturday calls interrupt the good game and after some pointed discussion they release the kid to a pediatric hospital.

The transfer squad walks in and pushes the local staff out. They literally knocked shit over breaking things, they were NOT screwing around. Jump in the car behind the ambulance, I can’t keep up, sirens screaming, blowing through red lights on a busy 4 lane road. By the time I park and run to the room they have X-rayed him, put a tube in his chest to reinflate the lung, and the kid is pink, not blue.

This story has examples of competence and incompetence. Other stories are not nearly so balanced nor with equally happy endings.
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Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 23 May 2020, 17:41:12

Back to opening up the economy. We seem to be heading there in the US with all its messy inconsistencies.


With Trump now declaring open warfare on Google, FaceBook, Twitter, and a long list of others for their assistance in building human rights violating systems for the Chinese, it may not pay to be in a rush on that recovery. This could get down to him sending in the Marines to take them over. If he does he may get my vote yet.

The place to clean out the Washington Swamp, is in Silicon Valley.
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Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Unread postby REAL Green » Mon 25 May 2020, 05:57:26

“An “L”-Shaped Recovery Is Not An Anomaly, It Is The Norm.”
https://www.dlacalle.com/en/an-l-shaped ... -the-norm/

“In a recent email to clients, Deutsche Bank mentioned that it takes around 22 days to shut down an economy almost entirely and between four and ten times that time to get it back on track. Considering that 75% of job losses have come from the services sector (travel and leisure, education, health, and professional services), it is also safe to assume that the jobs recovery will be very slow, considering the loss in the number of businesses and the weak response from consumers in the return to activity, as wages are unlikely to rise and households will likely try to save as much as they can to prepare themselves for another shock.”
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Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 25 May 2020, 06:56:38

shortonoil wrote:
Back to opening up the economy. We seem to be heading there in the US with all its messy inconsistencies.


With Trump now declaring open warfare on Google, FaceBook, Twitter, and a long list of others for their assistance in building human rights violating systems for the Chinese, it may not pay to be in a rush on that recovery. This could get down to him sending in the Marines to take them over. If he does he may get my vote yet.

The place to clean out the Washington Swamp, is in Silicon Valley.



You got a link on the explanation of their involvement?
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Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 25 May 2020, 06:59:52

REAL Green wrote:“An “L”-Shaped Recovery Is Not An Anomaly, It Is The Norm.”
https://www.dlacalle.com/en/an-l-shaped ... -the-norm/

“In a recent email to clients, Deutsche Bank mentioned that it takes around 22 days to shut down an economy almost entirely and between four and ten times that time to get it back on track. Considering that 75% of job losses have come from the services sector (travel and leisure, education, health, and professional services), it is also safe to assume that the jobs recovery will be very slow, considering the loss in the number of businesses and the weak response from consumers in the return to activity, as wages are unlikely to rise and households will likely try to save as much as they can to prepare themselves for another shock.”


AOME things will jump back but I’m not buying any stock in airlines, cruise companies, or holiday hotels.
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Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 25 May 2020, 08:28:11

Newfie wrote:
Some things will jump back but I’m not buying any stock in airlines, cruise companies, or holiday hotels.


Since I own an eco resort and am on the front lines of these consequences I will share some thoughts on this.

First of all we have had more new bookings for next high season than I would have thought. Not many but enough to be noteworthy. Mostly European, a few north americans, probably mostly optimists who have cabin fever and already planning their holidays for next year. I don't see the problem with disposable income. There will still be a reduced but robust enough percentage of the population who have time and money to travel.

The problem is the demographic of these travelers who still have disposable income are your older retired folks, exactly those who will think twice before sharing the air for hours in that aluminum tube flying across oceans. A few of the field hardy biologists, older entomologists who scoff at this whole pandemic, they will come, but that is a smaller segment of our market.

How airlines can stay solvent with greatly reduced passenger miles flown remains a big question. What protocols they come up with to insure passengers can fly safe is another. The additional layers of bureaucracy and required health certificates being Covid19 free will be burdensome on top of all the draconian security measures post 911 that already have made traveling unpleasant. The pandemic adds another layer that will make many decide to forego traveling completely. The risk and hassle wont be worth it. This reality will favor domestic and regional tourism over going long distances that require flights.

Large hotels with huge fixed costs will suffer. Imagine a 300 room hotel with all the operating expenses of utilities, maintenance, loan payments, salaries and having less than 30% capacity for the next two years? Can't survive. Same problem with airlines.

Smaller boutique resorts like ours who diversify and who have reduced operating expenses and no debt will tighten their belts and can weather an extended lock down. Small boutique resorts also have the advantage of offering low density accommodations and dining and in our case miles of trails where one can practice social distancing so such places can actually market these benefits but it is getting the guests from point A to point B that will be the challenge.

Tourist industry in big cities are screwed. There is no real opportunities to diversify. Rural areas with agricultural assets will do better. WE are focusing on our specialty coffee and increasing our head of beef cattle but these smaller income streams are not enough to cover operating expenses without tourism. Enough to help but not sustain.

There is a huge impact in developing countries. As owners we can reduce staff and cut back and make it through. But let's consider the impact this will have on all the low level wage earners depending on tourism industry. We will have to cut back staff. The transport taxi driver I contracted to haul guests up our 4x4 road was going to buy a 2nd 4x4 vehicle because of the demand before the pandemic. That is cancelled and he will not even make enough now to pay the car payments on his existing 2 vehicles. All of the guides will not make enough money to support themselves. All the restaurants and shops that service tourists in the nearby towns will be struggling. The goods and services that hotels need to run their operations; food suppliers, house keeping supplies, cleaning staff, laundry service, taxis, etc. etc. all of this will drop to levels that can no longer support these workers. This puts huge economic stress on communities.

Without a vaccine or effective anti virals that reduce or avoid severe symptoms there will be no recovery of tourism at former levels. Even with a vaccine there is permanent changes to this industry. Mass tourism like cruise ships, amusement parks, water parks, those tour buses loaded with superficial tourists is going to suffer the worst. Fortunately the mass tourist venues that will suffer the most are the most egregious polluters and consumers of energy and also the sector that offers really just crass consumption over education or cultural or nature tourism. Good riddance to this sector.

Tourism in the future will move even more to niche markets, smaller venues, extended stays in one place instead of 2 nights here and 2 nights there. Being in transit represents a risk and hassle so folks will extend their stays and go to fewer venues when traveling.

Domestic tourism should actually do fine. Wherever you can travel by car will be preferred over flying. Camping is cheap and social distancing easy. Nature tourism should remain fairly robust as it offers safe and healthy and "meaningful" travel experience.

Personally we were already planning to reduce our days of operation to intentionally scale back the reservations and income and have more quality time to enjoy the land here so this pandemic has actually had the silver lining of showing us how lovely it is too have unstructured open space and time. How do you put a money value on that?

I don't think we are alone on that regard. If more folks are appreciating these silver linings that represents a huge potential cultural shift away from empty cruise ship style consumption tourism this can open up more lower impact and more meaningful travel pursuits. This goes beyond just tourism. WE may see a permanent impact on how folks choose to consume, both from having less disposable income and perhaps focusing more their reduced disposable income on activities that increase well being.
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Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 25 May 2020, 09:01:46

Some interesting insights there.

Everyone expected boat sales to fall through the floor, and some segments might get, however smaller yachts seem to be in increased demand. That might be what you are talking about: staycations where you can isolate. The charter industry may or may not come back. The big problem there is the air travel to the location and the uncertainty of quarantine and border controls.

Dominica is screwed. Before Maria they were 80,000, now down to 70,000 due to loss of housing stock. Then Ross University decides to relocate, they abandoned their buildings and left. Much of the student housing was provided by locals who had small apartment buildings near the school. All empty.

There were 3 big hotels in construction around Portsmouth Bay. One was nearly done when Maria devastated it. They just finished rebuilding it but had not quite opened. A second hotel was just completed and accepting their first guests when the virus hit. A third hotel is about 40% complete. Dominica has no international airport, it can only accept interisland traffic so every flight here requires at least one transfer. The govt keeps talking about building an airport but the costs are prohibitive. There is no flat land. And besides, what population of 70,000 can support an international airport for big planes?

It will be very interesting to see how Dominica fares. The government is already stressing that folks return to the land and sea to increase exports. They are supporting back yard gardening. So is Grenada. I think that tells you something right there, be sustainable.
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Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 25 May 2020, 10:43:25

Ibon wrote:WE may see a permanent impact on how folks choose to consume, both from having less disposable income and perhaps focusing more their reduced disposable income on activities that increase well being.


We are already seeing lines cue up to get into bars and clubs. Hedonism isn't going away anytime soon. Like anything else it splits into demographic clusters.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 25 May 2020, 11:19:41

asg70 wrote:
Ibon wrote:WE may see a permanent impact on how folks choose to consume, both from having less disposable income and perhaps focusing more their reduced disposable income on activities that increase well being.


We are already seeing lines cue up to get into bars and clubs. Hedonism isn't going away anytime soon. Like anything else it splits into demographic clusters.

I'll bet those lines are mostly young healthy people with no preconditions. That is what will change no the lines but who is in them.
I can't imagine getting on line in a cruse ship to go ashore they way they used to do it. Even then my wife and I felt like cattle in the slaughterhouse chute waiting to have our cards read.
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Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Unread postby diemos » Mon 25 May 2020, 11:35:17

asg70 wrote:
We are already seeing lines cue up to get into bars and clubs. Hedonism isn't going away anytime soon. Like anything else it splits into demographic clusters.


Good. We need more herd immunity.

I just wish I could score an antibody test so that I can see if I've already had it.
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Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 25 May 2020, 11:49:33

diemos wrote:
asg70 wrote:
We are already seeing lines cue up to get into bars and clubs. Hedonism isn't going away anytime soon. Like anything else it splits into demographic clusters.


Good. We need more herd immunity.

I just wish I could score an antibody test so that I can see if I've already had it.


Question. If you got the test and it is negative would you infect yourself in order to no longer be held hostage by the virus?
I know this depends on your age and health. I am 62 and I am more on the cautious end of that question. I would not willfully infect myself but if I was under 50 years old I would do it. It would have both an altruistic and selfish component. Altruistic because I would no longer infect others, it would be the same as someone vaccinated. It would be more altruistic than wearing a mask for example. Selfish so I can do what the fuck I want without worrying any more.

C8 recommended this. As much as this goes against the Hippocratic oath of do no harm it has a compelling side to the spirit of this Hippocratic oath. The idea of "do no harm" was always in the medical definition of the Hippocratic oath referring to the decision of treating an individual.. This same Hippocratic Oath can be applied to populations as well. If the risk to the individual of illness or death is minimal but if the health of the whole population is thus served and in aggregate you then would have less deaths then you can see how this Hippocratic Oath can be applied in a "holistic" and "system" way and thus be justified in the spirit of its original meaning in allowing a person to be infected. There is a small precedent to this. Folks would infect themselves with Cowpox in order to be immune to Smallpox back many years ago.

I think in the spirit of the Hippocratic Oath it would still be too early to infect yourself without first seeing if a vaccine is on the short to mid term horizon. That would be prudent. BUt if that seems unlikely then this question has validity.

This would require a whole new way of approaching this pandemic that would be historical.

It would require the sword of wisdom that focuses on the resiliency of the whole over the doing no harm on the individual level.

A theme I come back to again and again......... ad nausea for some, a source of enlightenment for others...... take your pic.
Last edited by Ibon on Mon 25 May 2020, 11:55:19, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 25 May 2020, 11:55:01

Ibon wrote:It would require the sword of wisdom that focuses on the resiliency of the whole over the doing no harm on the individual level.

A theme I come back to again and again......... ad nausea for some, a source of enlightenment for others...... take your pic.

I would put the nausea to enlightenment ratio at about 10 to 1. :roll:
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Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 25 May 2020, 12:03:43

vtsnowedin wrote:
Ibon wrote:It would require the sword of wisdom that focuses on the resiliency of the whole over the doing no harm on the individual level.

A theme I come back to again and again......... ad nausea for some, a source of enlightenment for others...... take your pic.

I would put the nausea to enlightenment ratio at about 10 to 1. :roll:


10% is good for me. At least it's not .27% like the CFO of Covid19. LOL.
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Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 2

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 25 May 2020, 14:27:30

I think in the spirit of the Hippocratic Oath it would still be too early to infect yourself without first seeing if a vaccine is on the short to mid term horizon.


A vaccine has been researched for almost 20 years by the pharmaceutical industry. A vaccine that would be efficacious toward SARS would be worth $billions. A vaccine for SARS would be a gateway to a vaccine against the common cold. All five of the corona virus that cause the common cold, and SARS are closely related, having originating in a bat. Since this type of research has been ongoing for almost two decades, and no vaccine has appeared to date the chances of a vaccine appearing in the near future are almost zero. Knowing that COVID-19 produces symptoms like the common cold, in almost all instances for healthy people, one would still have to be a little daffed to intentionally infect themselves. A bad head cold is nasty, and that is what one might wind up with.

The logic behind the idea of someone self infecting, needs a little evaluation? Unless one is a researcher experimenting on themselves, it is a really dumb idea! If this comes back next year, like the head cold that it is, there will be another opportunity to experiment.
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