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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 15

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 15

Unread postby GHung » Wed 20 May 2020, 12:09:26

shortonoil wrote:Please see my post above, especially the last two lines. Do not take any vaccines without first talking to your doctor. Your life may depend on it.


What Vaccines? Maybe the false prophet should stick to comments about the we-shoved-a-couple-of-trillion-up-the-dead-cat's-ass stock market.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 15

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 20 May 2020, 14:32:08

https://www.opednews.com/index.php
The Economy is in free fall
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 15

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 20 May 2020, 15:48:10

onlooker wrote:https://www.opednews.com/index.php
The Economy is in free fall



It started happening prior to Corona. The bubble was there, it was just trying to avoid a pin.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 15

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 20 May 2020, 16:04:56

Armageddon wrote:
onlooker wrote:https://www.opednews.com/index.php
The Economy is in free fall



It started happening prior to Corona. The bubble was there, it was just trying to avoid a pin.

Sorry I got the link wrong. https://www.opednews.com/articles/Time- ... 0-516.html
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 15

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 20 May 2020, 17:29:13

Armageddon wrote:
onlooker wrote:https://www.opednews.com/index.php
The Economy is in free fall


It started happening prior to Corona. The bubble was there, it was just trying to avoid a pin.

No it wasn't. No matter how many times you claim it, out of context, out of real world factual data, etc.

Would quoting a CREDIBLE source be so hard? Why yes, of course, since you persistently claim nonsense.

But we know how you like to make exaggerated false claims re doom, just as you have for the past 15 years or so. :roll:

Congrats on being consistently obtuse, I suppose. 8)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 15

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 20 May 2020, 18:16:18

Prior to Corona

Manufacturing was in contraction
Service was in contraction
GDP was heading to zero
FED cut rates twice
Shipping, trucking and rail were collapsing
Govt deficit was 1.3 trillion


Not much more is needed to say. If you don’t understand what was happening, you are lost.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 15

Unread postby REAL Green » Thu 21 May 2020, 06:25:39

Armageddon wrote:Prior to Corona

Manufacturing was in contraction
Service was in contraction
GDP was heading to zero
FED cut rates twice
Shipping, trucking and rail were collapsing
Govt deficit was 1.3 trillion


Not much more is needed to say. If you don’t understand what was happening, you are lost.


What is happening now may be better than what appears. There has not been a good recession since the 80's. Recessions allow problems to be reset. This demand shock will force changes. What may turn out a silver lining is several industries that do not contribute to longer term resilience will be hard hit. Discretionary economic sectors that were basically bad human behavior have been hit hard and this is good. This process was coming to a head anyway. This demand shock has moved forward a bad situation. Sooner the better and hopefully some good will come out of it. What is definitely good is it got here. Now adaptation can begin.

This is a situation of a trap so the sooner the trap is accepted the better. The status quo will whine and moan about all this but those who are honest about science both the problems and the solutions will see this as a blessing. A decline process is in place. It will be the force of change now. No more undulating plateau of growth and decline. Irrational behavior will be rationalized in this process. Destructive change will allow for constructive change. Globalism and financialization will shrink. Both these forces were parasitic. The bad side of destructive change is here to stay too but less than letting this process go longer into unreality of growth in a time of limits.

What I just said is not mainstream of course but as a student of decline this is what I see. I have been watching this now since 05. I thought 08 was SHTF but after 12 years of watching in amazement I see that the way the world works has change. This great turning from growth to decline is a much slower process than we are accustomed to. Many collapsenik want to talk collpase but there is too much growth forces at work to allow this in a global sense. It is happening locally in places and economic sectors but not overall. This does not mean it can't happen only it does not necessarily have to happen now and quickly. This is not our historical understanding of things and Hollywood fails us here. The new reality is of a gradual turning over into a new reality. That is my opinion after 15 years of watching this unfold daily.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 15

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 21 May 2020, 06:47:59

onlooker said: The Economy is in free fall


The airlines are crashing and burning, the same for autos, steel, shipping, oil, and about every other category except for tech. Tech is the only hold out, but they are showing signs of distress. If we follow the energy curve world GDP will fall to $62 trillion, and then slowly decline to nothing by 2030 when oil reaches its "dead state". We are in for a long chilling depression that will put civilization back to a Civil War economy. With the Virus hoax now coming to the forefront some stabilization should return as States begin to reopen. War is now our greatest existential threat.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 15

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 21 May 2020, 07:46:21

Another 2,440,000 Americans filed initial unemployment claims last week, bringing the total number of people who lost their jobs during the pandemic to nearly 40,000,000.


How many millions don’t qualify and aren’t counted?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 15

Unread postby noobtube » Thu 21 May 2020, 08:10:12

From March 23, 2020 to May 20,2020, the dollar has lost BIG against...

OIl (WTI) Up 24%
Precious Metals (Gold UP 16%, Silver UP 37%, Platinum UP 41%)
Stock Market (DJIA UP 22%, S&P 500 UP 23%, Nasdaq UP 30%)
Cryptos (Bitoin UP 73%, Ethereum UP 66%) <-- made up, virutal nonsense that looks good compared to the "dolla"

The only thing saving Becky and Brad is that food prices have stayed low, with their welfare (oops, I meant "stimulus") checks during this PLAN-demic.

Once the economy opens at all, little Suzy housecoat and Josh the wanna-be capitalist, are going to rush out and resume business-as-usual which the American economy can no longer afford or support.

It will hasten the end of 'Muricans "exorbitant privilege" as world reserve currency. Most won't be able to adjust their lives due to decades of laziness and incompetence at the expense of the rest of the world.

It doesn't help that no one knows what a dollar is, which defines so-called "wealth" in this country. (https://fee.org/articles/what-is-a-dollar). It's sort of like late-day Rome, where the emperors kept clipping the coinage so you didn't know what you were getting (and threatening death if you didn't accept it).

But, if the typical American idiot knew what was valuable, no one would be able to prepare. So, there's that. :-D
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 15

Unread postby GHung » Thu 21 May 2020, 08:11:14

Nouriel Roubini warns of L-shaped 'Greater Depression'

Famed economist Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the 2008 financial crisis, is calling for a global depression in the middle of the decade.

In an interview with BNN Bloomberg's Amanda Lang Tuesday, the author and New York University economist says the most likely economic scenario "is that of a "U-shaped recovery" and "there is also a risk of an L, what I call a greater depression, that's my baseline for the rest of the decade, but not this year."

He said that as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, both households and corporations will have to spend less and save more,causing a global investment slump and a global savings glut.

"That's a recipe for a very anemic recovery of the U.S., Canada, of the global economy," he said.

When asked if there was anything governments can do to stop a depression, Roubini said "unfortunately, I fear there are some major trends…what I call the 10 deadly Ds that are going lead us to a deadly depression sometime later in this decade. Only a matter of when – not whether." .....
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/roubini-war ... -1.1431864


Nate Hagens and others are predicting the same. The $trillions being shoved down the throats of starving, parasite-infested economies will provide only temporary relief and will be shat out the other end in a short time The global economy will be left drowning in its own detritus once again. Funny money has little lasting value and cannot nourish markets in any meaningful way. It's literally like eating paper.
Anyone who believes magic money is REAL CAPITAL is deluded. Does it spend in the short term? Sure. Will it save BAU? I guess we're going to find out, eh?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 15

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 21 May 2020, 09:23:17

The only thing now displaying a heart beat in the economy is the stock market. Fake money supporting a fake economy will not last for long. Most of the FED's member banks are now insolvent from the gargantuan growth in their derivatives book. The majority of the world's $360 trillion in debt has been parked there in an immense financial labyrinth of unknown, and insolvent counter parties. With an inevitable collapse in world GDP now baked into the cake that market will fail, and the world's credit markets will freeze solid. Money will stop flowing and so also will the exchange of goods and services. The monetization of debt to keep the economy moving will then reveal itself to be the ruse that it always was. The central banks have been telling us fairy tales for years, but in reality Little Red Riding Hood was eventually eaten by the wolf. Debt based fiat monetary systems are mathematically guaranteed to fail, and all of them in history have done so. This one will be no different. Welcome to the end of the oil age.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 15

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 21 May 2020, 13:14:53

shortonoil wrote:The only thing now displaying a heart beat in the economy is the stock market. Fake money supporting a fake economy will not last for long. Most of the FED's member banks are now insolvent from the gargantuan growth in their derivatives book. The majority of the world's $360 trillion in debt has been parked there in an immense financial labyrinth of unknown, and insolvent counter parties. With an inevitable collapse in world GDP now baked into the cake that market will fail, and the world's credit markets will freeze solid. Money will stop flowing and so also will the exchange of goods and services. The monetization of debt to keep the economy moving will then reveal itself to be the ruse that it always was. The central banks have been telling us fairy tales for years, but in reality Little Red Riding Hood was eventually eaten by the wolf. Debt based fiat monetary systems are mathematically guaranteed to fail, and all of them in history have done so. This one will be no different. Welcome to the end of the oil age.
Yes, all that runs via financial-monetary transactions will slow then freeze as currencies universally nosedive. And lending will also freeze as risk aversion dominates credit markets. Then the long Winter of Stagflation defation/inflation descends upon the world's economies. No more game of thrones. All humanity will face a desperate struggle for survival. "then they will see you cannot eat money"
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 15

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 21 May 2020, 16:42:45

Another week another $225.4 billion of funny money added to supply, and another $103 billion added to the Fed's balance sheet, which now stands above $7 trillion, and may hit $10 trillion before year-end. There's no way this can continue without a dollar crash. Brace for impact.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 15

Unread postby REAL Green » Fri 22 May 2020, 05:24:54

I am not taking this forecast as the complete future but there are points to be considered:

“Von Greyerz: The Global Forest Fire Is Here”
https://goldswitzerland.com/the-global- ... e-is-here/

“Jobs – the unemployment rates we are now seeing of 15-39% depending on how you measure, will become permanent. Many employed and self-employed will not get their job back. The government has no money to pay these people. Printed money is an illusion and has zero value. Take the UK where now 50% of the adults are being paid by the government in subsidies, unemployment benefits, state employees, and state pensioners. That situation can of course never last. Paying non-productive people with worthless money does not create a sustainable society.
Pensions – Pension funds will not survive. They have three principal asset classes – Stocks, Bonds, and Property. All three will lose most of their value in real terms. All unfunded pension schemes will remain unfunded since there will be no money to pay the pensioners.
Airlines – Many airlines will go under. Any remaining ones will be extremely costly to operate leading to fares increasing substantially. Fewer people will fly due to high costs. Business travel will go down significantly both for cost reasons and because people have recently discovered that meetings and conferences can be conducted on Zoom or Skype.
Hotels, Tourism – Tourism will decline dramatically due to high unemployment and high costs. Mass tourism will totally die. The conference business which is a vital income for hotels will also dwindle. Much of it will become Video conferencing. Most of the luxury hotel market will die.
Offices – Big offices in city centres will disappear. The world has discovered, during the Corona quarantine, that working from home is extremely efficient and convenient. It is also better for family life. Big offices will disappear, instead there will be small offices which don’t have to be in city centres. So there will be less commuting, less pollution and a better quality of life.
Big Cities – The need for big cites will diminish dramatically. As people work from home or small regional offices, big cites will shrink and many will become ghost towns. Retail in big cities will die.
Big Companies – Many will be broken up. Globalism with big dominant global businesses will disappear. Countries will become more self-sufficient with most production becoming domestic.
Banking & Finance – Most big banks will disappear as the financial system implodes. Without massive debt, derivatives and leverage, banks will go back to where they started – financing trade, commerce, and industry. There will be no investment banks or proprietary trading. Central banks will disappear or have a very much diminished role. There will be virtually no money printing. There will be no manipulation of money or interest rates. Market swings will be based on supply and demand and not central bank interference. I do realise that some of this sounds like wishful thinking. But it is a natural reaction to the current false and diseased financial system.
Hedge Funds & Private Equity – These players will disappear as they are totally dependent on massive leverage and debt. They have no place in a system based on sound money. Most hedge funds will go under in the coming collapse as counterparties fail and derivatives become worthless. Private equity has destroyed many good companies by lumbering them with heavy debt and taking all the equity out.”
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 15

Unread postby REAL Green » Fri 22 May 2020, 05:32:41

The backbone of the global economy is not there at the moment. How long can this go on before it will lose the ability to reboot to its former self:

“Auto Registrations In Europe Plunge 76% In April, The Largest Drop On Record”
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-fina ... rop-record

“The data was driven by each of the 27 EU markets recording double digit declines in April, with Italy and Spain spearheading the misery, posting losses of 97.6% and 96.5% respectively. Sales plunged 61.1% in Germany and France dealt with an 88.8% contraction in April. The U.K. also posted a sales drop of 97.3%, according to CNBC. Sequentially, the numbers are worse than March, when new car sales fell 55%. It was in mid-March that most European countries instituted their lockdowns. The global auto industry can only be best described as in the midst of imploding into itself right now. Just a couple of days ago, we reported the news that China NEV sales plunged 43% last month… that ships full of cars were being denied entry to ports in California due to the massive inventory glut. Such was the case on April 24 when a cargo of 2,000 Nissan SUVs was approaching the port of Los Angeles. They were told to drop anchor about a mile from the port and remain there. John Felitto, a senior vice president for the U.S. unit of Norwegian shipping company Wallenius Wilhelmsen said: “Dealers aren’t really accepting cars and fleet sales are down because rental-car and fleet operators aren’t taking delivery either. This is different from anything we’ve seen before. Everyone is full to the brim.” "There are basically no sales," we wrote about the auto industry heading into April. One automotive researcher said of the industry-wide crisis: “The whole world is turned upside down right now.”
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 15

Unread postby evilgenius » Fri 22 May 2020, 17:46:22

I am increasingly doubtful of the resiliency of the food supply. The supply chains should have incentive to keep up after things get going again. But we have already seen that there are bottlenecks that don't have anything to do with transportation.

Those meatpackers could just decide to go on strike, all of them. Whose side would your average redneck be on? Consider how many meatpackers are hispanic. There may be an argument that takes place over who is 'American' enough. That could derail meat production for weeks.

Ditto for anything local like that in the countries from which so many things are imported.

But there could also be monetary policy that exacerbates the problem. Or, foreign policy, trade policy, that does the same.

The food supply is strong right now because there are many layers to source everything. It's a complex system. It's a good system. But people have been warning us. I think it may be vulnerable to wobbles in places quite else from where we might expect.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 15

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 25 May 2020, 12:36:33

A dead-end road.

Since August 2019:

- US public debt rose by $3.3T
- Fed printed $3.3T
- Government Debt to GDP surged to 120%

We haven’t seen anything yet


Buy gold and silver ASAP
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 15

Unread postby noobtube » Mon 25 May 2020, 14:27:04

Armageddon wrote:A dead-end road.

Since August 2019:

- US public debt rose by $3.3T
- Fed printed $3.3T
- Government Debt to GDP surged to 120%

We haven’t seen anything yet


Buy gold and silver ASAP


It's way too late to be doing that.

If you squandered the last 10 years having fun, enjoying yourself, living your best life, ignoring all the warnings, mocking the conspiracies, being an individual, gorging on debt, and immersing yourself in the status quo... gold and silver are not going to save you.

What is here requires a mindset in direct opposition with the American sense of entitlement, exceptionalism, and elitism.

Sacrifice, humility, and modesty will rule over the next decade. This version of America is a dead man walking.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 15

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 25 May 2020, 15:47:38

noobtube wrote:
Armageddon wrote:A dead-end road.

Since August 2019:

- US public debt rose by $3.3T
- Fed printed $3.3T
- Government Debt to GDP surged to 120%

We haven’t seen anything yet


Buy gold and silver ASAP


It's way too late to be doing that.

If you squandered the last 10 years having fun, enjoying yourself, living your best life, ignoring all the warnings, mocking the conspiracies, being an individual, gorging on debt, and immersing yourself in the status quo... gold and silver are not going to save you.

What is here requires a mindset in direct opposition with the American sense of entitlement, exceptionalism, and elitism.

Sacrifice, humility, and modesty will rule over the next decade. This version of America is a dead man walking.




Silver is still cheap. My local dealer has 1 kilo bars in stock.
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