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Opening Up the Economy Pt. 1

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Opening up the economy

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 17 May 2020, 15:10:15

MonteQuest wrote:
C8 wrote: So somebody is going to be left holding the bag? Who is going to get screwed when the music stops and all the chairs are taken?


With regard to the USA, anyone holding any assets denominated in US dollars. If the dollar crashes, everyone will be trying to sell their dollar-denominated assets and there will be no buyers. That's stock, bonds, real estate, etc. Precious metals will be king, but you have to buy them before the dollar goes south.

But it's impossible to time that. I'm well diversified, because you CAN'T time such things. So my stock portfolio is quite global, for example. And I have some PM's, and various inflation hedges.

But since I began investing enough to read widely about it in about 1983 or so, there have been ENDLESS calls by pundits, magazine articles, books, investment newsletters, doomers, etc. for the imminent (or fairly soon) "crash" of the dollar, unpayable debt, etc. So that's 37ish years and counting.

And given the problems in the 70's, NO DOUBT that was often the call then too. And how about in WWII when the US took on so much (do doubt deemed "unpayable") debt then?

If a call isn't actionable with a reasonable probability, it isn't worth much. My call is for the debt to be monetized over time, same as it has ALWAYS been via fiat currencies. The thing re gold, etc. is, if gold grows at the rate of inflation over time (as it has on average for multiple centuries), and the stock markets grow at about 7% real return over time (as the S&P 500 has for the 90 years it has been measured -- since reliable historical stats have been kept), just hiding in gold is NOT statistically a good strategy to grow wealth for, say, one's retirement.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Opening up the economy

Unread postby C8 » Sun 17 May 2020, 16:27:17

MonteQuest wrote:
C8 wrote: So somebody is going to be left holding the bag? Who is going to get screwed when the music stops and all the chairs are taken?


With regard to the USA, anyone holding any assets denominated in US dollars. If the dollar crashes, everyone will be trying to sell their dollar-denominated assets and there will be no buyers. That's stock, bonds, real estate, etc. Precious metals will be king, but you have to buy them before the dollar goes south.


I get the "stock, bonds", but isn't real estate a little different? Yes it will lose value- but if you buy it after the crash, doesn't it become the only necessity one can invest in? After all we have to live somewhere.
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Re: Opening up the economy

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 17 May 2020, 16:28:40

Plantagenet wrote:However, the open-borders policies promoted by the Ds are crazy. Allowing millions and millions of impoverished, semi-illiterate illegal immigrants to enter the US with no border controls isn't rational, especially now when many of these people may be infected with the various diseases including the Wuhan virus. Its extremely dangerous to allow unknown numbers of infected people to keep entering the US---the science and the CDC is very clear on that. But thats exactly what the Ds are advocating.


I know of no Democrat, politician or otherwise, who is advocating an open-borders policy. They just think there are better ways to regulate immigration than a border wall that people will just tunnel under, cut through, or climb over.
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Re: Opening up the economy

Unread postby C8 » Sun 17 May 2020, 16:30:54

MonteQuest wrote:
Newfie wrote: As it is now we are inviting people into our country in order to LOWER the the living standards of our own people.


It's a Catch-22. With the US birth rate below replacement, immigration is the only way we can grow the labor force, fund SS, Medicare, and pension funds, and growing govt expenditures. $13 billion of SS is already subsidized by illegal contributions that are never collected in benefits.


But what of automation and offshoring? Isn't it possible that as immigrants enter the nation the jobs disappear through these two forces? In that case the new immigrants would not be paying into SS but draining the US through welfare?
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Re: Opening up the economy

Unread postby C8 » Sun 17 May 2020, 16:34:29

MonteQuest wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:However, the open-borders policies promoted by the Ds are crazy. Allowing millions and millions of impoverished, semi-illiterate illegal immigrants to enter the US with no border controls isn't rational, especially now when many of these people may be infected with the various diseases including the Wuhan virus. Its extremely dangerous to allow unknown numbers of infected people to keep entering the US---the science and the CDC is very clear on that. But thats exactly what the Ds are advocating.


I know of no Democrat, politician or otherwise, who is advocating an open-borders policy. They just think there are better ways to regulate immigration than a border wall that people will just tunnel under, cut through, or climb over.


The gang of 4 have advocated abolishing ICE- and many mayors, governors are ignoring immigration law creating a de facto open border policy. They have all the motivation to do this as immigration has flipped California into a permanent one party state. It won't take long for the cartels to go into high gear and start moving airlines full of arrivals from the rest of the world across the border for a price.
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Re: Opening up the economy

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 17 May 2020, 16:36:08

Newfie wrote: Ouch, thanks for that clarification. So we are really at $225,000/PERSON.


The debt link shows $62,000 per person private debt so that makes $138,000/capita. Not sure how that is calculated.
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Re: Opening up the economy

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 17 May 2020, 16:40:49

Outcast_Searcher wrote:My call is for the debt to be monetized over time, same as it has ALWAYS been via fiat currencies.


Like all things, there are limits to growth. More debt isn't growing GDP. We are at debt saturation.
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Re: Opening up the economy

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 17 May 2020, 16:47:44

C8 wrote: I get the "stock, bonds", but isn't real estate a little different? Yes it will lose value- but if you buy it after the crash, doesn't it become the only necessity one can invest in? After all we have to live somewhere.


It is still an inflated asset denominated in dollars. That it is a necessity isn't a factor if the dollar crashes and loses reserve currency status. No one knows how this would play out, but if Japan and China started dumping dollar reserves...lots of articles being written about it. Do a google search.
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Re: Opening up the economy

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 17 May 2020, 16:53:35

MonteQuest wrote:I know of no Democrat, politician or otherwise, who is advocating an open-borders policy.


Obviously you weren't paying attention during the D presidential debates.

Let me review for you some of the positions that leading Ds took in those debates and that groups within the D party hold...

Secretary Castro, in every single debate, advocated ending penalties for illegal border crossings and ending all deportations of people who cross illegally. That is the same as an open borders policy, since it means people could cross the border illegally into the US without facing any penalties.

AND there is a large "open-borders" special interest group within the D party whose sole purpose is to pressure the D party into backing their D open borders program

free to move..free to stay

They advocate that illegals should be free to move in or out of the USA or free to stay as they choose. That is an open borders policy.

Other Ds in the debates agreed with Castro that the US should shut down ICE...the immigration law enforcement agency. Ending immigration enforcement is essentially an open borders policy.

Even Biden, the most "centrist" D candidate, has promised a moratorium on all deportations of illegal aliens when he is elected, with no exceptions. Even illegal alien murderers and rapists would be allowed to stay in the US under Joe Biden's moratorium plan.

Again, if there is no enforcement of rules against border crossing and no way to remove illegal aliens in the US, even illegal aliens who commit violent and heinous crimes, then that is ipso facto an open borders policy.

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Re: Opening up the economy

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 17 May 2020, 16:57:58

C8 wrote: The gang of 4 have advocated abolishing ICE- and many mayors, governors are ignoring immigration law creating a de facto open border policy.


That's still not advocating an open borders policy. Abolishing ICE would be replaced with other immigration policies to control immigration. “Eliminate the agency as it stands and restructure its functions, starting from scratch. There will still be enforcement of immigration laws, but it must be without cruelty and abuse."
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Re: Opening up the economy

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 17 May 2020, 17:14:39

MonteQuest wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:However, the open-borders policies promoted by the Ds are crazy. Allowing millions and millions of impoverished, semi-illiterate illegal immigrants to enter the US with no border controls isn't rational, especially now when many of these people may be infected with the various diseases including the Wuhan virus. Its extremely dangerous to allow unknown numbers of infected people to keep entering the US---the science and the CDC is very clear on that. But thats exactly what the Ds are advocating.


I know of no Democrat, politician or otherwise, who is advocating an open-borders policy. They just think there are better ways to regulate immigration than a border wall that people will just tunnel under, cut through, or climb over.


Hillary was. There was a quote of her talking to some group about globalization and waxing all poetic about it. In that piece the quote went something like “I dream of the day when we have completly open borders (Western Hemisphere) and people can move across freely, with no restrictions.” Obviously not a direct quote, as close as I can remember.

Now she could have been lying at the time, who knows. But it’s what she said.
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Re: Opening up the economy

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 17 May 2020, 17:59:03

Here is my plan to open up the economy. Goofed as all hell.

Old age homes, elder care facilities, long term care for the aged. These folks go on lockdown. And the staff along with them. We need to set up campuses where these folks can be isolated front the virus. The staff needs to accommodated on site so they are not running back and forth and infecting these facilities. You work there for 90 day shifts. Then come out for 60 days. Pay needs to be commiserate with the hassle. Family members can rotate in and out in a similar kind of schedule, 14 day quarantine to go in. 14 day quarintine to come out if there is a corona virus outbreak.

Then there needs of be corona hospitals. The elders and others who get the virus go to that hospital which is separated from the rest of the hospital. Same deal for staff, long term on site employment. Well compensated.

The rest of society gets cut loose, go back to normal. Make money to pay those poor bastards who are caught in the corona care crunch.

This way we can take care of those that need it. Really take care, not Cumo care. And the rest can get back to work to pay the care takers enough to make that employment worth while.

It’s gotta be cheaper over all than this half assed methods we are using. And it will provide better protection for those at risk.
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Re: Opening up the economy

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 17 May 2020, 18:12:30

SPAIN. Disappointing if true.

https://www.costa-news.com/costa-blanca ... -immunity/

Blood serum tests to determine the prevalence of antibodies for SARS-CoV-2 have indicated that an average of 5% of Spain’s population have come into contact with the coronavirus.

This would mean it has affected approximately 2,350,000 people in Spain, which is almost 10 times higher than the 229,000 in the ministry for health figures.

The preliminary results of the first round of tests ordered by the government and carried out by the Carlos III health institute, showed significant geographical variations, with only 2.7% in Alicante province – and 1.4% in Murcia region.
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Re: Opening up the economy

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 17 May 2020, 18:19:46

You are proposing a pretty tough life for the care givers of the aged. Who would volunteer for that? We must protect the elderly as far as possible but you can't expect the staff to live less then a full life. Perhaps after they do find a vaccine they can give it to all staff and their families along with the home residents and then you would only worry about visiting families of the residents.
But like expecting three year olds to wear a mask all day in a daycare facility it might sound good but has no basis in reality.
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Re: Opening up the economy

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 17 May 2020, 18:53:08

MonteQuest wrote:Abolishing ICE would be replaced with other immigration policies to control immigration.


??????

ICE is not a policy.

ICE is the federal police force charged with patrolling the border and enforcing immigration laws.

If there is no federal police force patrolling the border and enforcing US immigration laws, then we have de facto open borders.

If it wasn't for ICE enforcing the border laws we'd have large numbers of illegal immigrants infected with the Wuhan virus freely crossing the southern border into the US right now.

The CDC advises against that. I know some Ds want to ignore the science from the CDC on this issue because it is politically incorrect, but its really a bad plan to ignore the warnings from Dr. Fauci and other scientists and allow large numbers of people infected with the Corona virus free entry into the USA. It will lead to many many more infections and unnecessary deaths within the United States.

How hard is that to understand?

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Re: Opening up the economy

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 17 May 2020, 20:42:24

C8 wrote:But what of automation and offshoring? Isn't it possible that as immigrants enter the nation the jobs disappear through these two forces? In that case the new immigrants would not be paying into SS but draining the US through welfare?


Illegal immigrants aren't eligible for govt assistance and legal immigrants can't apply for 5 years after becoming citizens. The labor force is shrinking due to demographics. Boomers are retiring. Many retired earlier than usual after the GFC.
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Re: Opening up the economy

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 17 May 2020, 20:53:50

Newfie wrote: Hillary was. There was a quote of her talking to some group about globalization and waxing all poetic about it. In that piece the quote went something like “I dream of the day when we have completly open borders (Western Hemisphere) and people can move across freely, with no restrictions.” Obviously not a direct quote, as close as I can remember.

Now she could have been lying at the time, who knows. But it’s what she said.


I think this is what she said. "My dream is a hemispheric common market, with open trade and open borders, some time in the future with energy that is as green and sustainable as we can get it, powering growth and opportunity for every person in the hemisphere."

She later clarified her remarks: "I was talking about energy. You know, we trade more energy with our neighbors than we trade with the rest of the world combined," she said. "And I do want us to have an electric grid, an energy system that crosses borders. I think that will be great benefit to us."

She also said, "On both sides of the Atlantic, we need reform. Not open borders, but immigration laws enforced with fairness and respect for human rights."

Factcheck.org looked at this. "Despite President Donald Trump’s repeated claims, Democrats are not advocating open borders, not even the ones who are calling to abolish Immigration and Customs Enforcement. The small minority of Democrats in Congress calling for the end of ICE have all said they would like to have many of ICE’s functions redistributed to other, existing government agencies. None has called for abandoning border enforcement."
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Re: Opening up the economy

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 17 May 2020, 20:58:42

Plantagenet wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:Abolishing ICE would be replaced with other immigration policies to control immigration.


??????

ICE is not a policy.

ICE is the federal police force charged with patrolling the border and enforcing immigration laws.

If there is no federal police force patrolling the border and enforcing US immigration laws, then we have de facto open borders.


Never said or implied it was. I'm a former federal LE officer, so I know what ICE is. Trained with them. Factcheck.org looked at this. "Despite President Donald Trump’s repeated claims, Democrats are not advocating open borders, not even the ones who are calling to abolish Immigration and Customs Enforcement. The small minority of Democrats in Congress calling for the end of ICE have all said they would like to have many of ICE’s functions redistributed to other, existing government agencies. None has called for abandoning border enforcement."
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Re: Opening up the economy

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 17 May 2020, 21:15:54

MonteQuest wrote:The small minority of Democrats in Congress calling for the end of ICE


First you claimed no Ds wanted open borders...now you admit some Ds want to eliminate ICE. ICE is the agency who enforces our immigration laws and patrols the border....if there is no border patrol or enforcement then the border is de facto open.

MonteQuest wrote:..many of ICE’s functions redistributed to other, existing government agencies...."


Thats a nice fantasy but can you be more specific? Which other "existing government agency" do you visualize taking over ICE's functions as part of this D plan to destroy ICE?

For instance, do you think the Park Service has enough spare capacity to do it? I know you were formerly a park Ranger. I have several friends who are NPS Rangers here in Alaska. While they are occasionally asked to participate in law enforcement activities in Washington DC, I know for a fact that they don't agree with you that the National Park Service or any other federal agency has the spare capability to take over patrolling the border and enforcing immigration laws in place of ICE. They don't have the training...they don't have the equipment...they aren't familiar with the sites or the mission or the laws involved. And the same goes for every other federal agency.

Really, you are promoting a fantasy. There is no other agency or group of agencies in a position to step in and replace ICE. The D plan to shut down ICE lacks specifics other then shutting down ICE.... because that is the end goal.

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Re: Opening up the economy

Unread postby C8 » Sun 17 May 2020, 23:00:55

MonteQuest wrote:
C8 wrote:But what of automation and offshoring? Isn't it possible that as immigrants enter the nation the jobs disappear through these two forces? In that case the new immigrants would not be paying into SS but draining the US through welfare?


Illegal immigrants aren't eligible for govt assistance and legal immigrants can't apply for 5 years after becoming citizens. The labor force is shrinking due to demographics. Boomers are retiring. Many retired earlier than usual after the GFC.


Dems are getting around that legal or illegal distinction by requiring that social service providers not ask. Are you even paying attention to what's happening in Calif. NY re: illegal immigration? You don't seem to be aware of a lot of developments and you have definitely not heard D candidates speak about the issue.

There are many other ways to handle SS dangers such as raising age limits, taxing wealthy SS incomes, etc.

And you still haven't addressed how automation is wiping out so many jobs that the new immigrants will just become additional dependents, not contributors to SS. (BTW - illegal immigrants don't contribute to SS anyway so that argument for allowing them in goes out the window)
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