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The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 15 May 2020, 13:45:11

Ibon wrote:Confession: I am a 3 million mile member with American Airlines. I have hardly flown the past 10 years. All those miles were accumulated when in International business. All these 400 acres of preserved cloud forest wilderness sit on the back of all that carbon that was burned as I was selling medical devices in Latin America for almost 20 years.


If only Plant could confess as much.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Fri 15 May 2020, 14:09:32

The IEA says global energy demand declined by 3.8% in the first quarter of 2020. Coal use fell 8%. Oil fell 5%. Renewables were the only source that posted a growth in demand, driven by priority dispatch. Electricity demand has been depressed by 20% or more in some countries on lockdown. The IEA says the pace of renewable power capacity additions will decline in 2020 as supply chain disruptions and labor restrictions delay construction. It will be interesting to see how this all shakes out going forward. At this junction, no one can make any predictions beyond it will be chaotic.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 15 May 2020, 15:54:08

MONTEZ,

My fuzzy recollections of Limits to Growth was that their model fell apart once any one of the primary indicators bad. At that point it all became chaotic. The model still printed out curves, but the researchers had no confidence in those post peak curves.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Fri 15 May 2020, 18:49:05

Newfie wrote:MONTEZ,

My fuzzy recollections of Limits to Growth was that their model fell apart once any one of the primary indicators bad. At that point it all became chaotic. The model still printed out curves, but the researchers had no confidence in those post peak curves.


My recollection was that all those debunking claims failed to grasp what the modelers were saying. That “the earth is finite."

As Limits to Growth concluded in 1972:

"If the present growth trends in world population, industrialisation, pollution, food production, and resource depletion continue unchanged, the limits to growth on this planet will be reached sometime within the next one hundred years. The most probable result will be a rather sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity."

So far, there’s little to indicate they got that wrong.

"The 1972 book Limits to Growth, which predicted our civilisation would probably collapse some time this century, has been criticised as doomsday fantasy since it was published. This research paper has found the book’s forecasts are accurate, 40 years on."

Limits to Growth/Factcheck
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby ralfy » Fri 15 May 2020, 22:26:34

Newfie wrote:MONTEZ,

My fuzzy recollections of Limits to Growth was that their model fell apart once any one of the primary indicators bad. At that point it all became chaotic. The model still printed out curves, but the researchers had no confidence in those post peak curves.


AFAIK, the principles of the model (there are actually several runs) are the ff.: population goes up as industrialization takes place because of lower infant mortality rates and higher life expectancy rates. Birth rates go down due to better education, etc., leading to higher prosperity, which in turn means higher resource consumption per capita, which together with funny money are the main drivers of economic growth. Higher resource consumption is ultimately limited by biosphere limitations, leading to diminishing returns. The latter ultimately leads to lower resource consumption per capita. One aspect of limits to growth is peak oil, and what happens to oil also takes place with mining, etc.

Meanwhile, pollution goes up given more resource consumption which in turn decreases some resource availability. The model doesn't factor in the effects of climate change, which may include species die offs, storm surges, etc.

The model also doesn't factor in the effects of funny money creation, which in turn leads to cycles of booms and crashes, with some of the booms taking place because of even more funny money created.

I think the model also doesn't factor in increased complexity in industries, which in turn may actually make them even more fragile:

http://fleeingvesuvius.org/2011/10/08/o ... d-economy/

In short, we are looking at the ff.

1. Ave. ecological footprint per capita is in excess of biocapacity, leading to ecological damage on a significant scale;

2. Ave. ecological footprint is rising as more people join the global middle class, which is part of economic growth and has lowered birth rates, but has also led to even more damage;

3. Due to momentum, population continues to rise;

4. Peak oil, as part of limits to growth, has been taking place, with lower energy returns, in turn threatening that economic growth;

5. Climate change, as part of pollution and ecological damage, has been threatening supply chains, among others, that are part of that highly complex industrial civilization that powers economic growth;

6. Increasing debt has led to one crash after another, with other "black swans" appearing, such as epidemics and pandemics taking place given increased vectors in the spread of disease, more threats of conflict (especially over resources) given multi-fold increases in arms production and deployment worldwide;

and so on in a global economy that is based not on cooperation but on competition and maximization of profit.

The premise is that a "green new deal" is supposed to take place given that competition and can reverse limits to growth, i.e., diminishing returns.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 16 May 2020, 07:22:32

ralfy wrote:The premise is that a "green new deal" is supposed to take place given that competition and can reverse limits to growth, i.e., diminishing returns.


Every "Green New Deal" I've seen promises more unsustainable "growth." More jobs, higher wages, more prosperity, etc.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby mousepad » Sat 16 May 2020, 15:37:29

MonteQuest wrote:
ralfy wrote:The premise is that a "green new deal" is supposed to take place given that competition and can reverse limits to growth, i.e., diminishing returns.


Every "Green New Deal" I've seen promises more unsustainable "growth." More jobs, higher wages, more prosperity, etc.


Exactly. I've yet to meet the leaders who promote less consumption and less affluence. It's all about growth and more and then some more.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 17 May 2020, 09:42:27

mousepad wrote:I've yet to meet the leaders who promote less consumption and less affluence.


I have. Jimmy Carter and the sweater speech. Didn't turn out well for him.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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