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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 14

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 14

Unread postby Cog » Thu 26 Mar 2020, 06:11:28

Investors that bet against the Fed, lose money consistently.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 14

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 26 Mar 2020, 06:18:49

Global industrial production and trade where tanking last year. The repo market blew up. The central banks around the world were cutting rates and doing QE.


The central banks are going in the hole at the rate of the world's debt formation; $132 billion a day. The appearance of the new improved world currency system should be coming as soon as they get everyone hitting in their basement. Their theory is that it will be difficult to accurately throw Molotov cocktails from there.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 14

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 26 Mar 2020, 08:03:14

It’s not just about only people who need the money, it’s also about getting that money into the economy.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 14

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 26 Mar 2020, 08:09:38

U.S initial jobless claims rise 3 million.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUCRcUxX0AA ... ame=medium
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 14

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 26 Mar 2020, 08:19:30

Yoshua wrote:U.S initial jobless claims rise 3 million.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUCRcUxX0AA ... ame=medium


"problems processing claims" ... States pulled down online claim forms to lower this figure.

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The real number is twice as high.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 14

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 26 Mar 2020, 08:45:57

Yoshua wrote:
Yoshua wrote:U.S initial jobless claims rise 3 million.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUCRcUxX0AA ... ame=medium


"problems processing claims" ... States pulled down online claim forms to lower this figure.

Live Monitor

The real number is twice as high.




Yup
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 14

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 26 Mar 2020, 08:50:03

Armageddon wrote:
Yoshua wrote:
Yoshua wrote:U.S initial jobless claims rise 3 million.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUCRcUxX0AA ... ame=medium


"problems processing claims" ... States pulled down online claim forms to lower this figure.

Live Monitor

The real number is twice as high.


Yup

Its record unemployment now !
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 14

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 26 Mar 2020, 10:54:50

"Italy: fines up to 3000€ for anyone found outside their home without valid reason, up to 6 years of prison if caught lying, 5 years if positive and breaking quarantine."

Police and military are patroling the streets. Soon coming to a town near you.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 14

Unread postby JuanP » Thu 26 Mar 2020, 11:10:08

"Next bear market for US stocks will be 'the worst market in my life' Jim Rogers"
https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1183911.shtml

The higher you stand the harder the fall. I expect the American people to suffer great economic losses this year, from which most, maybe all, will never recover fully. Fasten your seat belts, y'all!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 14

Unread postby dolanbaker » Thu 26 Mar 2020, 11:48:17

In September 1939, the unemployment rate in the UK skyrocketed shortly after the declaration of war, but I don't think it went up "this" fast!

Most companies over here are still paying wages, the US is a bit 3rd world like if they're dumping so many staff like that.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 14

Unread postby GHung » Thu 26 Mar 2020, 12:20:42

I'm wondering what lengths they'll go to to re-fudge the new debt to GDP numbers.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 14

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 26 Mar 2020, 12:22:44

And of those 3 plus million applying for Unemployment in the US is NOT the total as I just heard many could not even apply as phone and intenet connections with their State Jobs Agency became jammed from this overwhelming surge
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 14

Unread postby The_Toecutter » Thu 26 Mar 2020, 12:46:49

onlooker wrote:And of those 3 plus million applying for Unemployment in the US is NOT the total as I just heard many could not even apply as phone and intenet connections with their State Jobs Agency became jammed from this overwhelming surge


I had that issue. Been trying to apply for days.

I'm hoping my mom doesn't lose her house over all this... I spent much of my life savings and quit a $60k/yr job two years ago to move back home in effort to save it and stop her from being drained by junkies. This economy was already bad, regardless of what the official statistics are telling us. After thousands of job applications and nearly 2 years later, I ended up washing dishes at a restaurant with my engineering degree and 10 years of engineering experience, and now even that income stream is shut down. Some engineering firms I interviewed with felt incredulous and/or offended that I rejected a job offer for $12/hr or $15/hr or $16/hr because the work was really worth $40/hr and was advertised on the job recruiting site as being close to that, but they just want to beg the government to allow more foreign Visa applicants in when they claim they can't find someone qualified willing to take the job, foreign applicants who will gladly work those jobs for such low wages or get shipped back to their 3rd world shithole they desperately tried to escape from if they complain or try to unionize. When you factor in insurance costs, I'm better off living in my mom's basement washing dishes at a restaurant, while these corporations cry crocodile tears because they can't find engineers willing to work for slave McJob wages. Boeing was one of the more egregious offenders; I know someone I went to school with who was good at embedded systems design who applied to Boeing, and he was ignored in favor of some H1Bs from India willing to do $90/hr work for $9/hr while he ended up homeless with his student loans going into default and becoming mathematically impossible to ever repay thanks to relentless compounded interest. Those designers from India are partially the reason those 737 MAX planes killed hundreds of passengers because they couldn't code in English or even use the CLK function correctly, something my friend would have never overlooked, and now Boeing is getting a big bailout, financed by taxpayers, and the CEO who was replaced over this fiasco got to keep his ill gotten gains and spent nary a day in prison.

The way big business is being allowed to own everyone is putting this country on a very unstable footing. All of those large handouts to Wall Street during this time of crisis are very telling, as are the Democratic Primary un-adjusted exit polls being off by like 15% of the official vote tally in many states. Those handouts to Wall Street and the banks are very likely going to be used to buy up everyone's foreclosed and repossessed assets for pennies on the dollar, as happened in 2008. At some point, people aren't going to take this anymore and it's going to get hectic, to put it lightly. The U.S. is already a banana republic, and has been such, for quite some time.
Last edited by The_Toecutter on Thu 26 Mar 2020, 13:15:07, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 14

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 26 Mar 2020, 13:11:00

Okay, I am going out on a limb. A Depression is coming
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/ ... nal-coming
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 14

Unread postby The_Toecutter » Thu 26 Mar 2020, 13:21:26

onlooker wrote:Okay, I am going out on a limb. A Depression is coming
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/ ... nal-coming


Get rid of all the government's "adjustments" in their statistics, and it's clear we've already been in once since 2008. It's about to become a whole 'nother world of worse.

I'm hoping I can at least avoid going homeless and losing everything I worked for in the process...

Nearly half of Americans couldn't come up with $500 in an emergency, BEFORE this crisis started, and it is not because most of them are irresponsible with money. One has to have money to manage in the first place before one can manage money...

A lot of people who are comfortably middle class(NOT the same as middle income) or even rich, comprising roughly the upper 20% of the U.S. population in terms of income/wealth, have been insulated from all the post 2008 doom. If this coming crash is as bad as I think it will be, most of them won't be insulated from it anymore and they'll be joining the ranks of the rest of the precariat very soon. They're not going to like that experience.

Homeless populations have already been exploding around the country for the last 12 years as well. I would not be surprised to see it increase by an order of magnitude or more in the coming years.

Maybe by 2022, the way of life of most Americans will be not dissimilar to the dystopian year 2022 depicted in the film Soylent Green.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 14

Unread postby mousepad » Thu 26 Mar 2020, 13:30:01

The_Toecutter wrote:of some H1Bs from India willing to do $90/hr work for $9/hr


That's not correct. In order to get H1B granted you need to pay market value for the job.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 14

Unread postby The_Toecutter » Thu 26 Mar 2020, 13:41:17

mousepad wrote:
That's not correct. In order to get H1B granted you need to pay market value for the job.


In theory, not in practice...

https://hiiraan.com/news4/2019/Jun/164510/boeing_s_737_max_software_outsourced_to_us_9_an_hour_engineers.aspx

Don't you know the self-appointed "Masters of the Universe" are exempt from the law the vast majority of the time? In fact, they get rewarded with taxpayer bailouts to insulate them from the consequences of breaking it. I know more than one competent engineering graduate who ended up homeless for being unable to find work out of school, during a time when companies were complaining they couldn't find people with their skillset. I got lucky that I was able to get work in my field after looking for a year post graduation, and get rid of my student debt, but I had to live like I was poor while earning a middle class income to do it, and most of my generation is not so fortunate... and $1,200 some months from now wouldn't come anywhere close to being a bail out for most of them who are drowning in debt.
Last edited by The_Toecutter on Thu 26 Mar 2020, 13:48:37, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 14

Unread postby mousepad » Thu 26 Mar 2020, 13:48:14

The_Toecutter wrote:
mousepad wrote:
That's not correct. In order to get H1B granted you need to pay market value for the job.


In theory, not in practice...

https://hiiraan.com/news4/2019/Jun/164510/boeing_s_737_max_software_outsourced_to_us_9_an_hour_engineers.aspx


You're confusing outsourcing with h1b. H1B is when a foreign worker comes to the US to do the job in the US, getting paid US average salary for his trade.
Outsourcing is when a company hires a worker/company not residing in the US.

It's funny. The people wanted the cheapest goods possible and are happy when their cloth and cell phones are made in 3rd world sweat shops. But all of a sudden also their jobs disappeared to 3rd world holes. People thought that was not so funny anymore. People want HIGH paying jobs and they want to pay 3rd world prices for all their goods and service.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 14

Unread postby evilgenius » Thu 26 Mar 2020, 14:02:14

The_Toecutter wrote:
onlooker wrote:Okay, I am going out on a limb. A Depression is coming
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/ ... nal-coming


Get rid of all the government's "adjustments" in their statistics, and it's clear we've already been in once since 2008. It's about to become a whole 'nother world of worse.

I'm hoping I can at least avoid going homeless and losing everything I worked for in the process...

Nearly half of Americans couldn't come up with $500 in an emergency, BEFORE this crisis started, and it is not because most of them are irresponsible with money. One has to have money to manage in the first place before one can manage money...

A lot of people who are comfortably middle class(NOT the same as middle income) or even rich, comprising roughly the upper 20% of the U.S. population in terms of income/wealth, have been insulated from all the post 2008 doom. If this coming crash is as bad as I think it will be, most of them won't be insulated from it anymore and they'll be joining the ranks of the rest of the precariat very soon. They're not going to like that experience.

Homeless populations have already been exploding around the country for the last 12 years as well. I would not be surprised to see it increase by an order of magnitude or more in the coming years.

Maybe by 2022, the way of life of most Americans will be not dissimilar to the dystopian year 2022 depicted in the film Soylent Green.

I think what they are really facing is the real world as it develops between the haves and have nots. The have nots don't get to participate in the finishing stages of market price discovery, but they are all there in the beginning. The volatility is commensurate with a many different interpretations view of the future, where any news can bring in new market participants.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 14

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 26 Mar 2020, 15:38:47

The_Toecutter wrote:Get rid of all the government's "adjustments" in their statistics, and it's clear we've already been in once since 2008. It's about to become a whole 'nother world of worse.

First, you have no idea whether that's true. That's your opinion.

Second, yes, if things were different, they wouldn't be the same. :roll:

Meanwhile, in the real world, governments exist, and taxes and government distributions are part of the real world economy, like it or not.

...

But OK then. So another doomer with a track record of basically zero, claiming they were right re "we've been in a DEPRESSION" since 2008.

Just like how the world would have been destroyed by a giant asteroid in 2008, IF ONLY one had hit it. :lol:

...

In the real world, this problem is already plenty serious enough without the usual clown-fest endlessly spinning baseless ghost stories. But I know the usual fast crash doomers will, because that's all they do. And track records and real world facts be damned. Just like science deniers.

Aside from bragging rights re pretending you're perpetually "right" in some alternate timeline existing only in your own minds, what do you folks get from such nonsense? Comfort in delusion?

Why not do something with value like writing science fiction or alternate history and make some money off your ideas?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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