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MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 18 Mar 2020, 11:23:37

The exploding global debt ratio to world GDP is a symptom of the EROEI decline.


Prove it.


In your case that would be like proving the value of an airplane to a garden slug. But for the rest of humanity (where the "prove it" one is excluded from that list):

Image


I have this weeks ETP-MAP price at $23.76 on it's way to $12.37 come the end of the year.


It may not make it that far; the end to the international exchange of petroleum may arrive first.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Baduila » Wed 18 Mar 2020, 13:50:18

Image

WTI at 20$/Barrel. Touches ETP-MAP.
Image Take care of the second law.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 18 Mar 2020, 16:12:25

"It may not make it that far; the end to the international exchange of petroleum may arrive first."

Sen. Kevin Cramer

"Wrote a letter to POTUS DonaldTrump urging him to embargo crude oil from Russia, Saudi Arabia, and other OPEC nations."
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 18 Mar 2020, 16:26:22

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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 23 Mar 2020, 05:14:09

Lower highs and lower lows, forming a falling wedge.

Traders regard this as a very bullish pattern.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETyJoQ0WAAA ... name=large
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 25 Mar 2020, 14:43:00

It looks like the WTI price, and the MAP have intersected. How long will be before we hear of EXXON filing for bankruptcy? When the oil is gone, there isn't much remaining. All there is a bunch of politicians fighting over the crumbs while jockeying for position as the house burns down.

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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 25 Mar 2020, 14:53:18

It looks like the WTI price, and the MAP have intersected. How long will be before we hear of EXXON filing for bankruptcy? When the oil is gone, there isn't much remaining.


Yeah, lets ignore the fact there is an oil war on which has increased supply to levels unheard of, lets forget we have a few months of shut down on airlines and other services that has a temporary impact on demand and then lets try to imagine it all has to do with the fairy tale you have been spinning here. :roll:
When the oil is gone? When exactly will that be genius? And the phrase "when the oil is gone, there isn't much remaining" is a bit like saying "you don't know where you are until you get there". I guess you missed that day at ESL.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 25 Mar 2020, 15:38:24

rockdoc123 wrote:
It looks like the WTI price, and the MAP have intersected. How long will be before we hear of EXXON filing for bankruptcy? When the oil is gone, there isn't much remaining.


Yeah, lets ignore the fact there is an oil war on which has increased supply to levels unheard of, lets forget we have a few months of shut down on airlines and other services that has a temporary impact on demand and then lets try to imagine it all has to do with the fairy tale you have been spinning here. :roll:
When the oil is gone? When exactly will that be genius? And the phrase "when the oil is gone, there isn't much remaining" is a bit like saying "you don't know where you are until you get there". I guess you missed that day at ESL.

Yeah lets ignore tge repurcussions of all this on Shale/fracking and what had been their already unprofitable fianances in this endeavor. And lets ignore the economic fallout of all this on Main St. and the consumer economy and workers or should I say the hordes of unemployed. Oh but I forgot the optimists fairly tales always end with and they lived happily ever after 8) :lol:
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 25 Mar 2020, 16:56:07

Yeah lets ignore tge repurcussions of all this on Shale/fracking and what had been their already unprofitable fianances in this endeavor. And lets ignore the economic fallout of all this on Main St. and the consumer economy and workers or should I say the hordes of unemployed. Oh but I forgot the optimists fairly tales always end with and they lived happily ever after 8) :lol:


which had nothing whatsoever to do with the origins of this graph which were a means of justifying the ETP fantasy. As I point out the current situation (Covid and oil price war) have nothing to do with the premises postulated in the ETP nonsense. You can't be right for the wrong reasons.
And as I have pointed out numerous times in the past until such time as you are capable of reading a financial report from one of these companies you should refrain from commenting on their profitability. Understanding how free cash flow is calculated and what companies are doing with their revenues is key to understanding whether they were a going concern or not.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby BahamasEd » Mon 30 Mar 2020, 14:03:41

WTI price is at/below the MAP, the MAP price is around $12 at the end of this year. With oil prices this low and the coming depression, Once the currently producing oil wells run dry they will never be replaced because the economy will not be able to afford it.

The oil rig count has dropped 10% in the last two week, Down about 30% in the last year. I think it's going to zero from the current 624 working rigs in the USA.

I never could get my head around that the model said low prices would be what ended the oil age. But here we are, with all energy prices too low to spur new production because the end user can't pay a higher price at the margin.

There's still going to be oil (gasoline/diesel) around but more and more people are/will be priced out.

I have no idea what the future will look like, but it's not going to be anything like what happened between 1945 to 2020.
The total energy cost of producing and delivering a gallon of gasoline to the end consumer must be less than the energy in a gallon of gasoline for it to be commercially viable.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 30 Mar 2020, 14:40:05

Texas Midland shale oil has dropped to $7 bbl.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUXptMxXQAQ ... name=large
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Baduila » Mon 30 Mar 2020, 14:48:22

Bahamas,

it's a law of physics. The second law can't get violated.

https://limitstogrowth.de/wp-content/up ... _EN_09.pdf
Image Take care of the second law.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby BahamasEd » Mon 30 Mar 2020, 17:32:17

Very good article, thanks
The total energy cost of producing and delivering a gallon of gasoline to the end consumer must be less than the energy in a gallon of gasoline for it to be commercially viable.
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