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THE Price of Crude pt 14

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 21 Mar 2020, 16:58:25

evilgenius wrote:Any second now... tariffs.
Doubt it. USA is self sufficient especially with current low demand so the only oil being imported is that that will be refined and re exported. A tariff would just move that stream of oil to other refiners located outside the US and at present there is plenty of capacity there.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 21 Mar 2020, 23:13:51

yes I think you are correct on the fact imposing tariffs on any oil being imported into the US will not work. The US needs heavy oil from Canada or Venezuela (good luck) to blend with the light oil produced in the unconventionals, it doesn't need light oil from OPEC but it would like to export the excess light oil it has. Tariffs result in responsive tariffs, never works. It's a global economy so the response to SA and Russia has to be something that gives them pause to think about what they are doing. The US still provides the vast majority of security for SA and much of the Middle East countries against realized threats from Iran and Yemen. If the US decided to pull all of its troops and airbases out of SA and remove its ships from their patrols in the Gulf I suspect that might get MBS attention. Saudi Arabia is extremely vulnerable from a security standpoint. Qatar hates them, Iraq and Kuwait try to ignore them and Iran and Yemen hate them. They actually need security support from the US. Just the threat of doing this would probably get their attention.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 22 Mar 2020, 05:57:51

rockdoc123 wrote:yes I think you are correct on the fact imposing tariffs on any oil being imported into the US will not work. ......
.............
They actually need security support from the US. Just the threat of doing this would probably get their attention.

We could start pulling troops saying we need them at home to maintain order from the Covid-19 crisis and let MBS read between the lines.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby evilgenius » Sun 22 Mar 2020, 10:10:52

Do we really know that the Saudis and the Russians aren't doing this together? Market forces can disguise political intentions. They both hate American fracking.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 22 Mar 2020, 11:07:33

evilgenius wrote:Do we really know that the Saudis and the Russians aren't doing this together? Market forces can disguise political intentions. They both hate American fracking.

I think that is at least plausible. They along with China would like to bring down the USA a peg or three and any workable angle is fair game.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby JuanP » Sun 22 Mar 2020, 11:54:29

evilgenius wrote:Do we really know that the Saudis and the Russians aren't doing this together? Market forces can disguise political intentions. They both hate American fracking.

That is definitely possible.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby sparky » Wed 25 Mar 2020, 02:07:08

.
the Russian position is clear enough ,Mr Igor Sechin CEO of Rosneft has been quite vocal about it
he hold that Russia and Saudi Arabia are protecting the oil price by cutting their production
while the US fracking ride high on someone else pain , pumping everything they can without making any money

on top the US was starting to export crude to Russia markets and has been hitting Russia with a blizzard of sanctions
compromising their hydrocarbon industry ,
Saudi , offended , decided to show the world they can cut their own nose to spite their face
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